Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Edmonton, AB, Canada
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The raw materials required to manufacture a Blu-Ray disc is dirt cheap. As the technology grows, the cost of production will plummet and the cost of Blu-Ray content will decrease to price that is affordable for casual movie-watchers. It's just a matter of time.
Also, within the next couple of years, HDTVs will be the standard. Almost every household has at least one TV, and whether you care about picture quality or not, there is no denying the aesthetic benefit of flat-panel TVs. They've become hella cheap right now, and they'll only get cheaper. This will most definitely open the doors for Blu-Ray to eventually become the norm. The timing of Blu-Ray's victory couldn't be better.
Prices of discs will inevitably drop. The number of HDTV owners is growing exponentially. At this point, it's just a matter of how fast BDA can take advantage by lowering player costs and how eager film companies will be to publish as many movies as they can in BD.
As for DVD, they won't be replaced. They won't become obsolete like VHS is now. BD players can play DVDs. DVD players cannot play VHS. DVD will continue to be strong for years to come.
If I had to guess, it will be mass adopted within a few years, co-existing with DVD.