Originally Posted by capablanca
Yea, and there still are people that don't own DVD's but watch movies on their VCR's. Come on, let's get real. I am talking about the majority of consumers, not the ones that still use typewriters. According to Nielsen 66% of US households have 3 or more TV's. You can't tell me that most of these consumers will not have an HDTV by 2010 (many of them already do). Also if you consider how many people buy TV's every year and the fact that analog TV's have been phased out and HDTV's are the norm. All of this is a shot in the arm for Blu-Ray.
Sorry, you were using the analog shutdown as reasoning for a large boost in HDTV volumes, I was only suggesting why that line of thinking could be a little off base.
I'm not sure what your numbers are though ... 66% of households have 3 or more TV's, and you're saying many have an HDTV? I thought HDTV penetration when factoring out multiple HDTV's in a single home was in the 20-something percent range?
Will there be an upsurge in HDTV sales? Sure, for one the reasons you mentioned -- they are all that is available. But expect many of those purchased to be the lower cost units which are taking over the price points of traditional CRT's and SDTV's. If Blu-ray players remain in the vicinity of $400 for the next 2 years, you'd be asking consumers to spend 50-100% more than they did on their TV to buy a player. That's going to be a stretch. Granted, I'm not thinking the same player today will remain $400 for the next 24 months, but we haven't seen a Profile 2.0 player's MSRP yet that would allow us to come up with an educated guess as to how it would be affected by normal price reductions over time. Considering the BDA CE's have, as a whole, been complaining about the erosion of player prices due to Toshiba's strategy, do you think that they are going to try to maintain some margin now that they can? Or erode those player prices now based on their own internal competition?
You're talking 2010 here, that's 2 years from now ... I'm hopeful Blu-ray player pricing is below $200 by then for Profile 2.0 units, and I agree there should be many more HDTV's in homes.
Again, is time on the side of HDM? You're predicting 2 years out for things to take off -- Warner seems to think the window is small for this to work.
Right now, HDM is a premium product mostly for those audiophiles and videophiles that can appreciate the improved PQ/AQ. When many consumers who have HDTV's now think that upconverted SD DVD is 'good enough' in relation to the price of HDM, I think the least of the format's worries are HDTV penetration numbers.
IOW: If average HDTV owners don't see value in the product, it's going to be even harder to sell to an SDTV owner who is upgrading his set.
Remember, as time moves on, 2 years from now, codecs will be much more efficient and things like VOD and HD via Cable will be much improved -- and there are several large companies pushing these technologies now. The end of the format war may have just made the window ever so slightly smaller.