BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 19 - AVS Forum
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post #541 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 07:06 AM
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2nd-gen Toshiba players - Great products at 2 good price points, but nowhere near enough marketing support. Most of the big-box stores' staff still don't know what HD DVD is, even though they sell a decent number of HD DVD players to well-educated 'cheapskate' buyers. Result - decent sales, but no expansion of name recognition, and no 'buzz' in the general public.

This is changing soon. Actually starting this week with a Toshiba Superbowl week promotion. The HD DVD PRG is just starting to spend money as is Toshiba. They were waiting until the 2nd generation players were out.

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post #542 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 02:30 PM
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Well DVDempire's numbers weren't posted yesterday but they did an update today and frankly things look a little screwy!

The "Week" has dropped from 65.46% to just 57.21%, the lowest since January 19th. However month and year figures are identical and are listed as 55.30% for BD! Really the only way for that to happen is if there was a massive surge in sales for both formats over the last two days but the surge for HD DVD was greater.

Frankly I have a hard time believing the "Week" and "Month" results have dropped so far in two days and the "Year" has risen so much. I don't think any scenario is likely since Amazon seems to reflect BD doing much better over the last 3 days.

Something more interesting though, is that they've now published historical data going back to April 06. They break it down by calender month, calender year and calender week. It shows that HD DVD had 100% of the market for April/June but when BD launched in June it dropped to 70/30. July was the worst BD month with 80/20 but sales gradually recovered to 65/35 in November. December saw a hugh rise for Blu-ray taking them into the lead at 49/51 and January extended that to 45/55

Ah, I have an idea, perhaps "Month" and "Year" are now the calender year/month since DVDempire list 2007 as 55.30%!!

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PS3 - great console sales, but it simply hasn't resulted in the overwhelming tide of movie sales that was forecast.

That's precisly what's happened! It's absolutely turned the tide for Blu-ray
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post #543 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 03:04 PM
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Yep, this looks like they're starting fresh from this year. That Complete Info thing is new as well
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post #544 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 03:42 PM
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Maybe they got tired of daily updates?

On thing confuses me. They say "Week of...." Do they mean Week commencing or Week ending? Most people use either term but "of" isn't at all descriptive!
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post #545 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 03:48 PM
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http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365291527966

In this chart from dvd empire it shows the monthly stats.

Sales Data by Year / Month Sales Data by Week

HD DVD led every month except December which was a virtual tie 48.69% to 51.31%.

January is 45% to 51%, but that's just a 3% swing in either direction. It shows Blu-ray ahead, but its one month and its a very small differential.

Thats a very short time for a trend to emerge, it not a lot to get all excited over.

What am I missing ?

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post #546 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camaj View Post

Quote:


PS3 - great console sales, but it simply hasn't resulted in the overwhelming tide of movie sales that was forecast.

That's precisly what's happened! It's absolutely turned the tide for Blu-ray

Uhmmm....55% is hardly an 'overwhelming tide', as was forecasted my many Blu-shirts.

Added some momentum? Sure. Sounded the death knell for HD DVD? Hardly.
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post #547 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 03:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

What am I missing ?

Yesterday the gap had 65% for Blu-ray for the week, so the current weekly figures are much closer there than they were. Maybe some people from here decided to order some things to bring the numbers closer to even or maybe it just happened naturally.

Assuming we can get numbers from one or more of the studios for overall sales in the future, it will be interesting to see how they match up with the numbers from dvdempire and amazon.

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post #548 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Yesterday the gap had 65% for Blu-ray for the week, so the current weekly figures are much closer there than they were. Maybe some people from here decided to order some things to bring the numbers closer to even or maybe it just happened naturally.

Assuming we can get numbers from one or more of the studios for overall sales in the future, it will be interesting to see how they match up with the numbers from dvdempire and amazon.

--Darin

I think the site redesigns from eproductwars.com , hdgamedb.com, and dvdempire.com all give us a heck of a lot more information to ponder than we did before. Homerjay's site (hdgamedb.com) will soon start having 30 day 60 day and year to date chart options for those top 10 25 50 100 item baskets.

Soon we'll be able to see some useful information as both formats sales increase.

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post #549 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 04:43 PM
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Number 1 at Amazon right now is the PS3....and at number 9...the Ps3 remote.

Now thats a telling sign if there ever was one.
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post #550 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Uhmmm....55% is hardly an 'overwhelming tide', as was forecasted my many Blu-shirts.

It was 65% for the month from late December to last Sunday. Given that it was 20% at one point the turn around has been incredable

There's still a long way to go
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post #551 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 06:37 PM
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...I prefer to be called a HD DVD supporter and current Blu-ray skeptic...

Kosty. I am sorry you took my post to personally. I just thought it funny that when I was saying the Amazon numbers are useless (they were then and still are for all the same reasons-just then a bit more), so many HD DVD supporters (and you included) where trying to pretend I was a brainless fanboy and my comments were to hide the truth. Now that the numbers don't show what you (plural) want it is look the numbers are to small they can fluctuate too easily, they might be temporal in nature, (plazmaman in a different thread)a difference in ranking from X to Y is only a handful of titles......


I agree with all of that. The point is that it was always true and was more true back when every HD DVD supporter was trying to show meaningless trends.

Amazon just has ranking. Ranking -especially since it is not sales ranking only becomes interesting if you remove preorders and only look at the top 20-30 depending on the week.

At least from DVDempire (even though they might be smaller) we have a direct comparison and so its This week BD did X and HD DVD did Y
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post #552 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 07:01 PM
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I agree HD addiction is a one way steet from the consumer side, but that doesn't mean all possible titles will be released in HD. HD DVD simply is easier for small volume producers to produce on now...

you missed my point. You said that this might just be an artificial bump. And we need to wait to see if it is anything more then that. My question of you and DVD was not about content but direction a person that bought a PS3 watched a BD movie and then went out and bought a BD movie (and so his buying a movie pumped up the BD sales in Jan) isn't likely to quit BD and go back to DVD. My point was, like you said, it is a one way street.

I think the jump is in big part due to the PS3, but who is this PS3 user?

Is it pent up BD buyers that waited for something cheaper? If so then it should continue to grow and even more.

Is it HD DVD supporters that decided 500$ is not too much and BD studios are releasing more? If it is then it will grow much faster, many are realizing PS3 is an exc3elent machine and the promises studio change did not happen, not only that but BD studios are going stronger.

Is it gamers that decided to buy BD movies and would not have if it was not for them having a PS3? These were the people aimed at by talking about the PS3 as a Trojan horse. Yes they might not buy a lot (per individual as much as the other two PS3 groups) but these are people that HD disks could not get directly and like I think we can agree are now HD (and in particular BD) converts.
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post #553 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 07:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camaj View Post

Well DVDempire's numbers weren't posted yesterday but they did an update today and frankly things look a little screwy!

Not to mention the number of BD titles they currently list in the stats. They have been listing around 209 titles for BD but it now shows 159.

Looks like they added a new feature. You can now look at sales data by year/month/week.

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...hidef_wars.asp

Ok here's a funny error; check the titles/studios numbers in the HDWars stats under the HD DVD or Blu-ray tab. Then check the the titles/studios numbers listed here:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...ars.asp?view=1

The numbers are reversed.
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post #554 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 07:17 PM
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Yep, they removed all preorders from the total counts.
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post #555 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 08:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365291527966

Thats a very short time for a trend to emerge, it not a lot to get all excited over.

What am I missing ?

Yes, but for the past 7 months HD DVD sales have been decreasing and Blu Ray sales have been increasing.

I think that is a trend.
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post #556 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 09:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

Kosty. I am sorry you took my post to personally. I just thought it funny that when I was saying the Amazon numbers are useless (they were then and still are for all the same reasons-just then a bit more), so many HD DVD supporters (and you included) where trying to pretend I was a brainless fanboy and my comments were to hide the truth. Now that the numbers don't show what you (plural) want it is look the numbers are to small they can fluctuate too easily, they might be temporal in nature, (plazmaman in a different thread)a difference in ranking from X to Y is only a handful of titles......


I agree with all of that. The point is that it was always true and was more true back when every HD DVD supporter was trying to show meaningless trends.

Amazon just has ranking. Ranking -especially since it is not sales ranking only becomes interesting if you remove preorders and only look at the top 20-30 depending on the week.

At least from DVDempire (even though they might be smaller) we have a direct comparison and so its This week BD did X and HD DVD did Y

Well, I disagreed with you then and I disagree with you now.

I think that the Amazon numbers and the dvd empire numbers are accurate in what they are measuring and are an important indication of trends.

Like I said earlier, the significance of the earlier HD DVD sales lead last year was that it was a proxy indicator of stand alone player sales and attach rates. It was accurate in that regard, by any objective measure.

Now the improved sites are giving impact of the PS3s launch in the December numbers. Its not disingenuous to state that this has occurred during a short recent period and that other factors may contribute (lack of HD DVD titles in new release) and that other factors upcoming (mass quantities of HD A2 and new HD DVD marketing and advertising expenditure) may alter the future trends. Its also not silly to point out that the separation between the format sales is much smaller than the larger past disparity where Blu-ray barely registered on the charts.

I think the charts are pretty accurate in showing trends. They've been improved in the last week and the multiple sites give us some interesting variations of the same data.

So I disagree that they are useless, where I disagree with some of the rah rah cheerleaders is that recent trends do not declare victory in the format war. As of now I see short term parity, not dominance, as you can't assume the trends will continue as they are. If HD DVD sales were significantly dropping, that would be another thing, but since they are sustaining at a base level thats a good sign of continued interest and high attach rates.

PS3 sales are unlikely to accelerate much after the 4th qtr seasonal rush, other Blu-ray players have sold little to date and the second generation HD DVD players and Xbox 360 add ons are coming now in quantity. When I see celebrations that don't consider those factors, I just wonder.

The Amazon sales ranking has aa proven track record in the publishing industry of being consistent in its methodology. Its a relative ranking but is useful for seeing long term trends. Its a bit misused for short term trends, but in teh case of last year, if those short term trends continue long enough they become long term trends and become more useful.

I mean the Amazon charts captured HD DVD stand alone player dominance, teh Xbox 360 HD DVD player launch and the initial impact of the PS3. Seems they have some validity after all.

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post #557 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 10:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

you missed my point. You said that this might just be an artificial bump. And we need to wait to see if it is anything more then that. My question of you and DVD was not about content but direction a person that bought a PS3 watched a BD movie and then went out and bought a BD movie (and so his buying a movie pumped up the BD sales in Jan) isn't likely to quit BD and go back to DVD. My point was, like you said, it is a one way street.

I think the jump is in big part due to the PS3, but who is this PS3 user?

Is it pent up BD buyers that waited for something cheaper? If so then it should continue to grow and even more.

Is it HD DVD supporters that decided 500$ is not too much and BD studios are releasing more? If it is then it will grow much faster, many are realizing PS3 is an exc3elent machine and the promises studio change did not happen, not only that but BD studios are going stronger.

Is it gamers that decided to buy BD movies and would not have if it was not for them having a PS3? These were the people aimed at by talking about the PS3 as a Trojan horse. Yes they might not buy a lot (per individual as much as the other two PS3 groups) but these are people that HD disks could not get directly and like I think we can agree are now HD (and in particular BD) converts.

Probably a combination of all above.

One could say its likely that the initial buyers were all hard core gamers, and therefore less likely to buy movies, so the initial sales of the PS3 actually underestimate the attach rate. If you remember last month, many of us wondered that the sales chart seemed ot have little impact the first couple weeks of PS3 sales, so there as lag. In this case that good for Blu-ray as when teh general population buys PS3 they may buy more movies than hardcore gamers.

If a larger portion of this initial batch of PS3 were sold to excited Blu-ray movie fans, who were finally able to buy a sun $600 player, then the parity in the sales may be because this pent up initial adopter demand was satisfied. That includes the guys like me, who probably will buy both formats players because were home theater nuts. But if 100,000 of those PS3 were sold to Blu-ray early adopters, thats unlikely to be repeated as its a one time shot.

Gamers buying movies because their disappointed in PS3 gaming releases? If they convert to loyal BD movies buyers thats a plus, but if they get tired of the same old game releases, then thats probably not good for the PS3 in general.

On thing is still in the air, that being the longer term attach rates, HD DVD has established long term high attach rates for almost every player sold, over time that means less player sold to counter PS3 sales. THe PS3 movie attach rates after the initial purchase period have yet to be determined. That will be a significant factor.

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post #558 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by phansson View Post

Yes, but for the past 7 months HD DVD sales have been decreasing and Blu Ray sales have been increasing.

I think that is a trend.

Not exactly.

The relative percentage of sales lead for HD DVD in a direct comparison between the two formats has been dropping but that doesn't mean that raw number of HD DVD titles sold or their dollar volume has been decreasing.

It just means that Blu-ray is catching (caught) up.

Its a trend certainly, but catching up is the easy part. Moving past for a significant time will be much harder, for either format.

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post #559 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Its a trend certainly, but catching up is the easy part. Moving past for a significant time will be much harder, for either format.

We will see in the coming months if it continues. I personally believe it will. PS3's will still be selling.

What blu ray player do you own?
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post #560 of 11556 Old 01-30-2007, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by phansson View Post

We will see in the coming months if it continues. I personally believe it will. PS3's will still be selling.

What blu ray player do you own?

I don't at the present time. I currently own a HD XA2 after upgrading from a HD XA1. But I have watched movies on the PS3 and the old Samsung and a the new Pansonic and have seen oddles of demos of all the current and upcoming Blu-ray players. I'm probably one of the few guys here that has seen most of the HD players on the market in action.

My current intention is to buy a PS3 or a new Samsung with the HQV processing although the new $600 announcement has me interested. But until street prices drop, I have plenty of HD DVDs to watch this year and I'm working through watching my standard DVD upconverted on my HD XA2, so I'm not in a big rush to buy a Blu-ray player.

If both formats survive, and I think they will, I'll buy a PS3 or another Blu-ray player when I think the price to performance ratio is better.

I'm interested in Blu-ray, I'm not convinced of the value yet.

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post #561 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 01:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

As of now I see short term parity, not dominance, as you can't assume the trends will continue as they are. If HD DVD sales were significantly dropping, that would be another thing, but since they are sustaining at a base level thats a good sign of continued interest and high attach rates.

Well there is no proof that the trend toward Blu-ray will continue but neither is there any proof that it will end soon. And the longer this trend goes on for Blu-ray the harder it will be to say that it is just a short term trend. As for HD DVD sales I would note that even though more HD DVD players have been sold over the last month software sales have actually decreased a bit. Personally speaking I don't see how that could be considered a good sign for HD DVD which is probably one of the reasons that Toshiba decided on the current promotion for their HD DVD players. It will be interesting to see how much effect it will actually have on HD DVD software sales.
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post #562 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 02:53 AM
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Originally Posted by dpags View Post

Yep, they removed all preorders from the total counts.

Is that information stated somewhere on their site or do you know this in some other way?
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post #563 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 05:16 AM
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post

HD DVD Supporter: Has it ever occured to you that HD DVD supporters are very happy with their format and do not want to change?

BD Supporter: Well they should because BD is the better format.

HD DVD Supporter: How about the fact that the PS3 accounts for 97% of all BD player sales?

BD Supporter: Well that won't always be the case. After HD DVD dies, players will come around.

HD DVD Supporter: Come around how? BD is a lot more expensive to manufacture. So, given sales of PS3, maybe we are then talking then about the PS3 being 99% of all BD player sales? After all, if HD DVD goes away, there is no incentive for BD player manufacturers to lower prices. The PS3 is highly subsidized. And, as the price of the XBox 360 (and Wii) drops, so does the price of the PS3... Assuming PS3 does not drop in price sooner because it currently is not selling very well...

BD Supporter: Well the PS3 is a great BD player, but there are always features that people want that the PS3 does not provide.

HD DVD supporter: Like what?

BD Supporter: Well....

HD DVD Supporter: Do you know only 25,000 standalone BD players have been sold since introduction?

BD Supporter: Well then why are all the studios supporting BD?

HD DVD Supporter: They have been offered incentives to support BD, coupled with the fact that they believe that the PS3 will sell like crazy. Why else would they? Sony is a movie studio as well. Why would a movie studio support it's competitor's format? Answer - subsidies... Sony is losing lots of money fighting this war. Don't you think they will want that money back at some point, like when HD DVD dies?

BD Supporter: But then why are all the CE manufacturers supporting BD?

HD DVD Supporter: Because of their IP in BD: First Meeting of Blu-ray DiscTM Patent Holders Held



BD Supporter: OK, but BD has increased capacity and bandwidth.

HD DVD Supporter: Everyone on these boards says HD DVD has great picture and sound. BD is only now starting to equal it. It is hard to believe BD will surpass in sound and picture. How can you surpass what we are seeing on HD DVD? So this is not an issue.

BD Supporter: But BD-50 will allow for more extras.

HD DVD Supporter: Consumers like their extras on a second disc. Makes it seem like they got more for their money. And a second disc is really not an inconvenience. 5 hours of uninterrupted video is not realistic for the average consumer.

BD Supporter: Who care? If BD can provide all this, why not go with that?

HD Supporter: Because it costs way too damn much to replicate. You think that hard coat comes for free?

BD Supporter: But movies cost the same as HD DVD movies. So who cares? It's immaterial.

HD DVD Supporter: You should care. If HD DVD goes away, you will be shouldered with Sony's debt for this whole format war, and extra disc costs. Toshiba hasn't spent much to develop HD DVD; on the other hand Sony has spent billions on blu-ray development.

BD Supporter: Well, over ten years, that will be amortized, so that discs will not cost much. We won't see that in stores.

HD DVD Supporter: Wanna bet? BD 50 costs a fortune to make. BD 25 is very expensive due to hard coat, and has less capacity than HD DVD. BD 50 is only manufactured by Sony...That does not bother you?

BD Supporter: No, because Sony is a great company. And so they deserve my money.

HD DVD Supporter: Have at it then...


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post #564 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Amazon has a much higher online sales volume, that 's why its mentioned all the time in Video Business etc. Their stockages are in various locations and they have a virtual Just in Time fufillment process with manufacturers to replenish a lot of stock. I know about the shortages issues, but overall Amazon's actual inventory numbers on that site may not have a lot of correlation to their sales as they move a lot of stock and can ship direct from a number of sources.

I think 3:1 Blu-ray to HD DVD in the numbers of titles released is unrealistic. If it started to seperate that far HD DVD studios would compensate. Plus the neutral studios and Universal will combine to make a 3:1 ratio unlikely.

It's already that far apart. CONFIRMED RELEASE DATES are BD - 73 and HD-DVD 19.

Just saying. For the year it's been more than 3:1 thus far. As evidenced just last week when BD released 12 titles and HD-DVD released 2. I haven't seen it change yet.

Any titles universal could release they can be shown up by Sony, Disney, or Fox who have had far better titles in recent memory. If Universal announces a major hit (which they have not yet) I imagine Sony will just announce Spiderman I and II.
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post #565 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 06:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I agree HD addiction is a one way steet from the consumer side, but that doesn't mean all possible titles will be released in HD. HD DVD simply is easier for small volume producers to produce on now. The only rea thing holding back mass HD DVD production is the willingness of content providers to release. there waiting for more players to come on the market. Blu-ray still has economic, faacility cost and capacity and technical replication issues to overcome. Those won't go down until there are a lot more Blu-ray players sold in the market or its proven that the PS3 attach rates are high or at least getting larger.

Until Blu-ray becomes more than a PS3 phenomena, its still a small chance that it won't catch on except as Sony's PS3's HD format. In that case studios may flip to HD DVD or all go neutral.

I don't think that would happen now. Blu-ray player prices will eventually drop to consumer levels.

But if Blu-ray dominates and HD DVD becomes a niche format, then a lot of content IMHO will stay on DVD and will never see a Blu-ray release because of economics and production capacity and politics.

I disagree with practically all of this.

I disagree with the reasoning, considering their are many manufacturers of Blu-ray products it is unreasonable to conclude that costs won't come down or are not already coming down.

You see when you have an industry that has lots of manufacturers or owners of the technology (i.e. Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, LG, NEC, etc, etc, etc) you are able to share technology, ideas, and spread losses over many manufacturers. I think this is already apparent as the cost of stand alone Blu-ray players has been lowered a great deal in a short time.

Also the price of blu-ray movies has come down, a lot of people have been complaining that they are too much, but I've seen lots of low prices on recent movies. Is the BDA subsidizing it? Maybe, or maybe the costs have simply come down more.

HD-DVD is going to be waiting a long time for players then. Sales simply are not improving and the cost is still not down enough. 400 dollars is still too much for just a player. When it hits 200 then you will see real sales. Since Sony already solved blu-ray laser diode production problems and is bring costs down on the PS3 already (65nm as opposed to 90nm in newer models). Why is it unreasonable to conclude that costs are already coming down on the blu-ray player production?

That's what happens when you mass produce. When you produce millions and millions of players like Sony is they learn ways to bring costs down, and also producing millions and millions of games on Blu-ray they learn to bring costs down in various ways. You don't think they will share this information with the BDA? Considering Sony is not the sole owner of Blu-ray they probably have to share such information in some form of a technology sharing agreement (like they have with NEC optical drives company).

It's actually more expensive to do what HD-DVD is doing by having small production instead of mass production. It's more expensive per disc and per unit. And also the costs are spread across very few manufacturers and innovation is left to a small amount of providers.

This is simple mass manufacturing economics, the higher the volume the lower the cost per unit.
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post #566 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by patrick99 View Post

Is that information stated somewhere on their site or do you know this in some other way?

If you click on the complete list link for either format and see the total # of discs (which include preorders), then subtract the pre-orders from the list, you will get the # of titles that are referred to in the chart.
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post #567 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

....that Toshiba decided on the current promotion for their HD DVD players. It will be interesting to see how much effect it will actually have on HD DVD software sales.

I actually knew personally of this promotion last month and I know it was decided on more than 60 days ago, when some of the national advertising for it was placed.

It was planned well before they knew of HD movies sales numbers for this month. It likely that it was planned long ago for the launch of the 2nd generation players, but the $200 rebate offer was tied to Superbowl week. They obviously may also have assumed that PS3 sales would spike Blu-ray movie sales.

I know that the Toshiba promotion was not a reaction to any short term Blu-ray sales lead, although it may have considered tha lack of new HD DVD releases in its planning.

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Kosty,

I do realize that it takes lag time for a promotion plan to come in effect. But you have to agree that HD DVD totally dropped the ball on this one. The DVD consortium underestimated the PS3 effect.

Blu Ray had a plan, were slow out of the gate, but stuck to it. They are beginning to see benifits from their launch strategy.

Plus, you are trying to convince a bunch of Blu Ray owners (of which you are not one) that your opinion is the right one.
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post #569 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 07:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Stromprophet View Post

It's actually more expensive to do what HD-DVD is doing by having small production instead of mass production. It's more expensive per disc and per unit. And also the costs are spread across very few manufacturers and innovation is left to a small amount of providers.

Good point.
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post #570 of 11556 Old 01-31-2007, 07:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty
I agree HD addiction is a one way steet from the consumer side, but that doesn't mean all possible titles will be released in HD. HD DVD simply is easier for small volume producers to produce on now. The only rea thing holding back mass HD DVD production is the willingness of content providers to release. there waiting for more players to come on the market. Blu-ray still has economic, faacility cost and capacity and technical replication issues to overcome. Those won't go down until there are a lot more Blu-ray players sold in the market or its proven that the PS3 attach rates are high or at least getting larger.

Until Blu-ray becomes more than a PS3 phenomena, its still a small chance that it won't catch on except as Sony's PS3's HD format. In that case studios may flip to HD DVD or all go neutral.

I don't think that would happen now. Blu-ray player prices will eventually drop to consumer levels.

But if Blu-ray dominates and HD DVD becomes a niche format, then a lot of content IMHO will stay on DVD and will never see a Blu-ray release because of economics and production capacity and politics.

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Originally Posted by Stromprophet View Post

I disagree with practically all of this.

I disagree with the reasoning, considering their are many manufacturers of Blu-ray products it is unreasonable to conclude that costs won't come down or are not already coming down.

You see when you have an industry that has lots of manufacturers or owners of the technology (i.e. Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, LG, NEC, etc, etc, etc) you are able to share technology, ideas, and spread losses over many manufacturers. I think this is already apparent as the cost of stand alone Blu-ray players has been lowered a great deal in a short time.

Also the price of blu-ray movies has come down, a lot of people have been complaining that they are too much, but I've seen lots of low prices on recent movies. Is the BDA subsidizing it? Maybe, or maybe the costs have simply come down more.

HD-DVD is going to be waiting a long time for players then. Sales simply are not improving and the cost is still not down enough. 400 dollars is still too much for just a player. When it hits 200 then you will see real sales. Since Sony already solved blu-ray laser diode production problems and is bring costs down on the PS3 already (65nm as opposed to 90nm in newer models). Why is it unreasonable to conclude that costs are already coming down on the blu-ray player production?

That's what happens when you mass produce. When you produce millions and millions of players like Sony is they learn ways to bring costs down, and also producing millions and millions of games on Blu-ray they learn to bring costs down in various ways. You don't think they will share this information with the BDA? Considering Sony is not the sole owner of Blu-ray they probably have to share such information in some form of a technology sharing agreement (like they have with NEC optical drives company).

It's actually more expensive to do what HD-DVD is doing by having small production instead of mass production. It's more expensive per disc and per unit. And also the costs are spread across very few manufacturers and innovation is left to a small amount of providers.

This is simple mass manufacturing economics, the higher the volume the lower the cost per unit.

Except that the Blu-ray CE companies are competitors first and want to maximize their profits and reduce risks. HD DVD is a way that companies can use proven DVD manufaturing techniques and charge a premium for the next generation products over the commodity DVD prices.

So far the Blu-ray companies are not producing players in mass market quantities, but as boutique expensive niche products.

I don't think their sharing a lot of cost reduction information as they are competitors.

The only mass market products being produced in volume are the Xbox 360 and its add on, the PS3 and the Toshiba HD A2 and the shared parts used in the HD A20 and HD XA2. Every one else is low density. With no economies of scale. Over a million HD A2's will be produced and shipped this year. That is larger than any other Blu-ray player by a huge factor except for the PS3.

Its like the BDA companies are still testing the waters with low volumes with little financial risk. Some like Samsung and LG are already dabbling in HD DVD so their support for Blu-ray only may be only skin deep. NEC, Toshiba, Samsung, LG Lite Onkyo,Meridian, the Chinese all have HD DVD items in development.

The BDA is betting everything on the PS3 and the other CE companies are holding back and taking a wait and see look, to include HD DVD development projects.

I understand your argument, I just think the logic of it applies to the HD DVD side more than the Blu-ray side.

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