Originally Posted by ss9001
The sales numbers and conclusions reached so far for '07 should surprise no one. The short term trendline was very predicable, but still does not confirm the long term trend & outcome down the road.
Perhaps they shouldn't be surprised, but when you bury your head in the sand you're always going to be surprised when reality hits. Long term predictions are always tough to make but given the way things are going I expect Blu-ray to not only hold the lead but extend it. Here's why:
More titles, better titles, more exclusives.
New owners coming aboard. PS3 gamers who want movies, people who are just discovering HD and HD discs and HD DVD owners going neutral or switching.
BD burner's dropping in price
BD burner's/Rom included in more PC's and possibly macs
2nd Gen machines arriving
This is also a positive feedback loop. The better BD does, the more attractive it becomes and thus does better and so it continues
There are some HD DVD events that could make a difference:
Universal releasing more titles. They say 100 this year. That will help but what's 100 v 400?
Cheaper players (ie Chinese) will open up the market to new consumers. However the effect isn't likely to be pronounced given the amazing low price already. If someone has a HDTV and prefers HD DVD chances are most of them would have a player by now. Personally $200 on a player that has a much smaller choice of titles is a false economy
Don't get me wrong, the war isn't over yet, that much is clear. But theship is running out of steam. I think the best thing for everyone is to jump off while they still can but some will wait until it's too late because they refuse to believe the predictions.