BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 243 - AVS Forum
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post #7261 of 11556 Old 10-24-2009, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

What happens between now and the end of January 2010 in the growth of Blu-ray hardware sales and software sales will largely determine who well Blu-ray does in both sales and consumer household penetration and how much Blu-ray displaces DVD titles displaced at retail.


Q4 is always an important time for retail but I don't think that this winter is that critical for Blu-ray per se. A case can be made that each of the last 3 winters were more critical.

If I had to name something that happened this year as being critical, I would point to the successful DTV transition. Consumers are now really getting into HDTV, with all indicators being that people want large 50+ inch 1080P sets. Since Blu-ray is pretty much gated to HDTV penetration, this is a very welcome sign.

Right now, look at the sales data since 2006, copiously posted in this thread. Look at the consistent trends that they show. Now look at player pricing (falling faster than anyone thought) and Blu-ray product that we are looking at in the next 3 months. The table is set.

Except for some external event in the world, I do not see anything that can happen to stop Blu-ray's continued progress. Q4 this year will simply mirror the last 3 years. By February, we will see a major influx of mainstream adoption.

At the same time, we won't see Blu-ray sales suddenly zooming to 100% either. It is a process.
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post #7262 of 11556 Old 10-24-2009, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Q4 is always an important time for retail but I don't think that this winter is that critical for Blu-ray per se. A case can be made that each of the last 3 winters were more critical.

If I had to name something that happened this year as being critical, I would point to the successful DTV transition. Consumers are now really getting into HDTV, with all indicators being that people want large 50+ inch 1080P sets. Since Blu-ray is pretty much gated to HDTV penetration, this is a very welcome sign.

Right now, look at the sales data since 2006, copiously posted in this thread. Look at the consistent trends that they show. Now look at player pricing (falling faster than anyone thought) and Blu-ray product that we are looking at in the next 3 months. The table is set.

Except for some external event in the world, I do not see anything that can happen to stop Blu-ray's continued progress. Q4 this year will simply mirror the last 3 years. By February, we will see a major influx of mainstream adoption.

At the same time, we won't see Blu-ray sales suddenly zooming to 100% either. It is a process.

Thats all true enough. After last fall in 4Q 2008 after The Dark Knight and the Blu-ray hardware and software sales last year, Blu-ray market success was inevitable. Its now large enough to grow and be supported for many years. This fall Blu-ray is beyond survival stage, its only undetermined on what level of a success that it will be over time and how fast that will happen.

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post #7263 of 11556 Old 10-25-2009, 02:15 AM
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I also believe there is the case of changing customer behavior. A lot of people like myself have gone from mostly buying DVDs to renting Blu Rays and streaming Netflix on demand. It is by far the most cost effective solution.

Also, I have the 2 at a time Blu Ray deal with Netflix. But I add movies to my queue based on the content rather than the format. I just checked that out of the 20 odd movies I have on there only 3 are Blu Ray. So I have to make an effort to find Blu rays to add to the queue. There is a huge disparity in content availability between DVD and Blu Ray.

While Blu ray will continue to grow and succeed the landscape is a much more competitive.

Also, Blu Ray is handicapped in a big way when it comes to computers. Apple does not support it and on Windows you have to install massive 100MB plus software updates every few months! It's a huge pain since you usually find out that you need to update the key only after you put in the disk. The key update is really really slow usually and I bet many people just give up! DVD just plain works all the time.

I have 3 top of the line Sony PCs all with Blu Ray drives and it's quite painful dealing with Blu Ray.

It'll be interesting to see how well Blu ray does without substantial PC based success and relying on it being a movie format only. The last two disk formats - CD and DVD had great PC success as well.
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post #7264 of 11556 Old 10-25-2009, 04:53 AM
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Also, Blu Ray is handicapped in a big way when it comes to computers. Apple does not support it and on Windows you have to install massive 100MB plus software updates every few months! It's a huge pain since you usually find out that you need to update the key only after you put in the disk. The key update is really really slow usually and I bet many people just give up! DVD just plain works all the time.

I have 3 top of the line Sony PCs all with Blu Ray drives and it's quite painful dealing with Blu Ray.

It'll be interesting to see how well Blu ray does without substantial PC based success and relying on it being a movie format only. The last two disk formats - CD and DVD had great PC success as well.

Great point. Blu-ray is laggard in PCs and Macs. Part of the issue is that its not really as a digital storage device as hard drives do the big or temporary stuff and CD and DVD single layer burning or flash USB is good enough to temporary storage, transfer via sneaker net etc. In fact dual layer DVD-Rs are laggard in media usage as single layer DVD -R are cheaper and big enough.

Its when Blu-ray hardware and BD-R capability gets cheap enough that it substitutes for CD/DVD-R drives when it will make inroads, but that lags a year or so from the use as a movie player.

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post #7265 of 11556 Old 10-25-2009, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Great point. Blu-ray is laggard in PCs and Macs. Part of the issue is that its not really as a digital storage device as hard drives do the big or temporary stuff and CD and DVD single layer burning or flash USB is good enough to temporary storage, transfer via sneaker net etc. In fact dual layer DVD-Rs are laggard in media usage as single layer DVD -R are cheaper and big enough.

Its when Blu-ray hardware and BD-R capability gets cheap enough that it substitutes for CD/DVD-R drives when it will make inroads, but that lags a year or so from the use as a movie player.

From the perspective of data alone, there are few reasons for having a Blu-ray drive (read and/or write) in a PC.

This was somewhat true in the early years of DVD as well. DVD was introduced in March of 1997. I remember in early 2000 paying a very premium price for a PC with a DVD drive, they were not that common. It took until 2001 or 2002 for DVD drives to become common. So it took 4 or 5 years to happen.

In the case of Blu-ray, this is happening a bit more slowly but it will happen. Right now, there is about a $70-80 MSRP premium on a PC for buying a machine with Blu-ray depending on the brand and configuration. This will fall. As it falls, manufacturers will add more Blu-ray models, first at the high end and gradually covering most models. This has happened with feature after feature in the last decade. [Who remembers when notebooks didn't have wireless built in? Or when a CD-Rom drive was an $800 add-on?]

This will still take a year or two to happen but it will happen suddenly once the manufacturing infrastructure is in place.

Note that this is not going to actually take too much longer than it took for DVD to become universal. I think we often lack a sense of history here and just assume that everything took place instantly. It takes time.
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post #7266 of 11556 Old 10-26-2009, 04:13 AM
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Just like Blu-ray player hardware, consumers will naturally buy more PCs with Blu-ray drives as those options get both cheaper or get eliminated as options altogether.

Soon at retail, its going to get tough to find all but the cheapest DVD players as Blu-ray players (that also play DVDs) displace them on retail shelves.

You can no longer find CD only drives for PCs either. As Blu-ray drives get cheaper, it not going to make a lot of sense to buy a DVD only drive as well if you have the option at all.

Blu-ray has had also a handicap for PC drives in that early drives also were slower at reading DVD data and besides more expensive that caused concerns for some applications and hardware manufacturers.

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post #7267 of 11556 Old 10-26-2009, 07:43 AM
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I think there are some valid arguments that blu-ray in computers won't take off as fast (or at all) as DVD did.

First it's not sure at all that cost for using blu-ray as back-up will go down fast enough to compete with small USB sticks or memorycards. When you can actually buy a blank blu-ray for say 2 dollars you will be able to get a memory card with 32 GB for something similar. Add in the convinience using that and I can't see that the market need will ever happen especially if you add in price of regular harddisks and online back-up.

As for computer software distribution most people won't ever buy anything that needs more than DVD. Sure Adobe suites etc may benefit but that's a very small portion of that market.

What remains are really two potential markets. Movie watching and gaming. As for movies it's seems like a rather small niche that will either care enough to watch blu-ray quality on a small notebook or hook up a notebook or home computer as their player of choice for disks.

The gaming market has more potential but there seems to be a move towards streaming/downloading in the gaming industry so who knows where that will be in even a year or two.

Some combination of these together with prices for drives coming down so far that it costs the same may put a blu-ray in many computers but I see it as more likely that computers in 3-5 years are sold without any drives rather than with blu-ray.

Not that it will matter much for blu-ray as the new movie format.
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post #7268 of 11556 Old 10-26-2009, 08:42 AM
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I'll add my voice to those who think that BD adoption at the personal computer level will likely be a non-issue. I see it neither serving a purpose or having a value...except for those who specifically use their computers as part of their home theater (I suspect that's a small demographic).

Only a few years ago, a CD and especially a DVD burner made a great deal of sense for people backing up data. I shoot a LOT of digitals photos....thousands every year with each photo being about 10MB. The only practical and affordable way to back up that much data was on DVD. It was actually a nuisance because, even the capacity of a DVD was limiting. But, four years ago, having a DVD burner on your computer was critical.

Today, I don't bother with my computer's DVD drive.

I can buy 1TB external hard drives for $89.00. I have a pair hooked to my old computer. One drive can back up tens of thousands of large photos at the push of a button.

Other than applications related to movies, BD has a minor roles to play in the PC world.
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post #7269 of 11556 Old 10-26-2009, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Dex Robinson View Post

I'll add my voice to those who think that BD adoption at the personal computer level will likely be a non-issue. I see it neither serving a purpose or having a value...except for those who specifically use their computers as part of their home theater (I suspect that's a small demographic).

Only a few years ago, a CD and especially a DVD burner made a great deal of sense for people backing up data. I shoot a LOT of digitals photos....thousands every year with each photo being about 10MB. The only practical and affordable way to back up that much data was on DVD. It was actually a nuisance because, even the capacity of a DVD was limiting. But, four years ago, having a DVD burner on your computer was critical.

Today, I don't bother with my computer's DVD drive.

I can buy 1TB external hard drives for $89.00. I have a pair hooked to my old computer. One drive can back up tens of thousands of large photos at the push of a button.

Other than applications related to movies, BD has a minor roles to play in the PC world.

I agree 100% from the perspective of data storage. There are very few reasons to use shiny disks for storage. They can be useful for sharing media (i.e. photos & home movies) with friends and family; that is really a different category than data storage.

However DVD drives in computers are widely used for media playback. There is a substantial group of people that use notebook PCs as portable DVD players and also many that use PCs for playing movies in bedrooms, dorm rooms, etc. This usage model that is now entreched did not exist with PCs at the onset of DVD and therefore was not a barrier to DVD adoption. In fact playback on PCs was part of the eary stages of DVD.

For BD adoption the lack of widespread PC support will likely act as an anchor that slows progress at least until the majority of PCs come with a BD drive.
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post #7270 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 04:47 PM
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Movie fans might have to wait to rent new DVD releases

For those who like renting movies, Hollywood may soon have a message: Prepare to wait.

In an effort to push consumers toward buying more movies, some major film studios are considering a new policy that would block DVDs from being offered for rental until several weeks after going on sale.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...,1148449.story
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post #7271 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 06:56 PM
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A horrible move. So they expect consumers to go along with this?

This reminds me of when the music companies wanted to make more money back in the late 1990s, opting to raise CD prices near $20. How did that work out?
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post #7272 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 07:18 PM
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A horrible move. So they expect consumers to go along with this?

This reminds me of when the music companies wanted to make more money back in the late 1990s, opting to raise CD prices near $20. How did that work out?

I think the thought is that for $1 Kiosk rental or unlimited per month Netflix etc consumers will see far value in waiting a couple weeks for rental and if they want to buy it its available still for under $20 so its not a big sacrifice.

Kinda in sync with the economic conditions and it still gives consumers a choice. Just really time shifts a few week the entire rental availability window, but once it occurs there still be new content for rent each week, its just that it will be out of sync with the new day and date releases available for purchase.

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post #7273 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 07:21 PM
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This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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post #7274 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 07:23 PM
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post #7275 of 11556 Old 10-27-2009, 07:25 PM
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Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Updated through 10/18/09 units data

Comparing the estimates for 1Q+2Q+3Q+ 2009 versus 1Q+2Q+3Q+ 2008 top 20 unit sales

Code:
           YTD x        YTD +%

Blu-ray    2.13      +113.49%
DVD        1.05        +4.64%
DVD+BD     1.12       +11.83%                   
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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post #7276 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 05:56 AM
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So any first week sales numbers yet for the RotF BD? I'm curious to see how close to or if it beats TDK in first week sales.
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post #7277 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 09:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

Quote:


Movie fans might have to wait to rent new DVD releases

For those who like renting movies, Hollywood may soon have a message: Prepare to wait.

In an effort to push consumers toward buying more movies, some major film studios are considering a new policy that would block DVDs from being offered for rental until several weeks after going on sale.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...,1148449.story

All they can really do is try to use negotiation tactics to keep the purchase price to rental companies high. Worst case is Red Box et al buy their movies from a downstream distributor rather the studios. The problem for the rental companies is this drives up their costs and hurts the business model.

Once the rental companies own the movie the studio cannot prevent them from renting it.
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post #7278 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 09:59 AM
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I rent by mail so I never see any thing in the window, so that is a non-issue for me. But there is part of me that keeps wondering just how kosher a lot of the moves that the studios make are with the antitrust laws? There is also the question of whether there will be added advertising costs as they now have to promote two windows. Mind you the studios may leave the rental window entirely to the rental outfits to deal with.
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post #7279 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 02:27 PM
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first report for week ending 10/25/09

Transformers 2 scores big time.

Transformers 2 Sells 1.2M Blu-ray Discs 1st week, 500,000 in 1st day


Quote:


‘Transformers 2’ Tops Charts, is Top-Selling Title of the Year

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
By : Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 28 Oct 2009

tarnold@questex.com

As expected, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, the year’s No. 1 movie, gave the home entertainment business a badly needed boost last week, selling and renting as though it was still the halcyon days of the early 2000s, when consumer spending on DVD was going up by the double digits year after year.

The Paramount Home Entertainment release hit stores Oct. 20 and within a week had become the top-selling home entertainment release of the year, with first-week sales of 7.5 million units, according to Home Media Magazine market research.

The sequel also became the biggest-selling Blu-ray Disc release of 2009, with first-week sales of 1.2 million units.

Transformers also takes the cake for day-one sales, having moved 2 million discs its first day in stores, 500,000 of them on the high-definition Blu-ray Disc format.

“It’s certainly an encouraging sign for the business,” said veteran industry analyst Tom Adams.

He added that the strong Blu-ray Disc sales count is particularly good news, “because if the business is going to turn around, it’s going to be because Blu-ray starts performing, and this is certainly an indicator that Blu-ray is starting to play its role and help stabilize the business.”

Transformers easily debuted at No. 1 on all three charts: the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, Home Media Magazine’s rental chart and the Nielsen VideoScan Blu-ray Disc sales chart.


Walt Disney Studios’ The Proposal, the previous week’s top seller and renter, slipped to No. 2, with Paramount/DreamWorks’ Monsters vs. Aliens the week’s No. 3 seller and Universal Studios’ Land of the Lost the No. 3 renter.

On the Blu-ray Disc chart, Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs came in second after spending its first two weeks in stores at No. 1.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...tle-year-17428

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post #7280 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 02:34 PM
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http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...a76#/3/OnePage

BTW the HMM digital issue with data from 10/18/09 is finally up

This is the data for the week before Transformers 2 Revenge of the Fallen's release.







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post #7281 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 03:32 PM
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That's impressive that The Dark Knight has such a heavy BR following, (or such low dvd sales). Beating the next closest ratio title by >10%, holy smokes.

It'll be interesting to see these numbers a year from now and see where the Transformers 2 ends up cause it appears it's close to the other titles even upon release.

Now they just need to get the overall numbers to come up some. I think the last month has been a little flat due to the titles that have been available to buy. But This next two months should be pretty strong with all the great BR releases that are out. Even my purchases will be up significantly in Nov/Dec.

(edit)
How much do you suppose the modest introductory pricing had to do with the stellar sales? And does anyone think this might send a message to the industry to come down out of the clouds with the pricing of these disks and you might actually move some? Considering things like Casablanca opening at what was it, $65? Who in their right mind would pay that for a blu disk? Obviously not many since it's now less than half that.
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post #7282 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 04:56 PM
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The Blu-ray top 20 unit marketshare for the week ending 10/25/09 is 19.75%.

Also according to a HMM source, the 7.5 M units sold of Transformers 2 (Blu-ray + DVD) = (6.3 M DVD) + (1.2 M Blu-ray) is just consumer sell through (not sold to rental) including units sold at Wal-Mart .

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post #7283 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 05:56 PM
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Transformers 2 Revenge of the Fallen had a 26% Blu-ray unit sales marketshare for the week ending 10/25/09.

Better than 1 Blu-ray sold for every 3 DVDs.


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-102509

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post #7284 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 08:55 PM
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Revenue numbers are now up for week ending 10/25/09

$38.86 M for Blu-ray
$210.66 M for DVD

15.57% Blu-ray revenue share (new pie chart)
19.75% Blu-ray top 20 unit share (old pie chart)

DVD + Blu-ray revenues up 35.91% from last year.

Best revenue numbers for Blu-ray for all year. 2nd best revenue numbers for Blu-ray ever, second only to The Dark Knight's release week the week ending 12/14/08. It was higher than the second week of TDK the week before Christmas last year.

DVD was also the highest since April 2009 as well.


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post #7285 of 11556 Old 10-28-2009, 10:54 PM
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post #7286 of 11556 Old 10-29-2009, 05:45 AM
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The 1.2 million reported Blu-ray units for Transformers 2 revenge of the Fallen is US domestic same as the Nielsen Videoscan first alert coverage area and also includes Wal-Mart system sales that are not in the Nielsen Videoscan report. I'm not exactly sure if that includes Canada to make it a NA number, but IIRC I don't think so. It absolutely is not a worldwide number and its not based on any studio claim.

It also is consumer sell through only and does not include studio sales to rental outlets or rentailers. Its point of sale and online sales only direct to consumers.

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post #7287 of 11556 Old 10-29-2009, 06:19 AM
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Quote:


BD Sales: October 19-25 – Transformers Breaks Sales Records

Posted October 29, 2009 04:44 AM by Juan Calonge

'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' smashed its way to the top of the BD sales chart for the week ended October 25, according to Nielsen VideoScan. It sold 1.2 million BD units in its first week (500,000 in the first day alone), according to research by Home Media Magazine, becoming the biggest hidef release of the year.

The sales figures are "certainly an encouraging sign for the business," said industry analyst Tom Adams. He added that the strong Blu-ray Disc sales count is particularly good news, "because if the business is going to turn around, it's going to be because Blu-ray starts performing, and this is certainly an indicator that Blu-ray is starting to play its role and help stabilize the business."

Here is the Blu-ray top 10 (previous-week ranking in parenthesis):
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
(1) Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
(2) The Proposal
(5) X-Men Origins: Wolverine
(16) Transformers
(6) Monsters vs. Aliens
(8) The Dark Knight
(3) Drag Me to Hell
(18) Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
(4) Land of the Lost

Again according to Nielsen VideoScan First Alert, 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' got 26% of its sales from the BD edition, one percentage point behind the first-week percentage of 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine', and still far from the record held by 'Watchmen', with 36%. The direct-to-video horror title 'Wrong Turn 3: Left for Dead' managed only 7% of BD sales.

Overall, BD sales revenue was $38.86 million, up 184.88% from the same week last year. DVD sales revenue was $210.66 million, up 23.95% year-on-year.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3616

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post #7288 of 11556 Old 10-29-2009, 06:23 AM
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Here are the charts for the week ending 10/19/09

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...tle-year-17428







Quote:


‘Transformers 2’ Tops Charts, is Top-Selling Title of the Year

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
By : Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 28 Oct 2009

tarnold@questex.com

As expected, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, the year’s No. 1 movie, gave the home entertainment business a badly needed boost last week, selling and renting as though it was still the halcyon days of the early 2000s, when consumer spending on DVD was going up by the double digits year after year.

The Paramount Home Entertainment release hit stores Oct. 20 and within a week had become the top-selling home entertainment release of the year, with first-week sales of 7.5 million units, according to Home Media Magazine market research.

The sequel also became the biggest-selling Blu-ray Disc release of 2009, with first-week sales of 1.2 million units.

Transformers also takes the cake for day-one sales, having moved 2 million discs its first day in stores, 500,000 of them on the high-definition Blu-ray Disc format.

“It’s certainly an encouraging sign for the business,” said veteran industry analyst Tom Adams.

He added that the strong Blu-ray Disc sales count is particularly good news, “because if the business is going to turn around, it’s going to be because Blu-ray starts performing, and this is certainly an indicator that Blu-ray is starting to play its role and help stabilize the business.”

Transformers easily debuted at No. 1 on all three charts: the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, Home Media Magazine’s rental chart and the Nielsen VideoScan Blu-ray Disc sales chart.

Walt Disney Studios’ The Proposal, the previous week’s top seller and renter, slipped to No. 2, with Paramount/DreamWorks’ Monsters vs. Aliens the week’s No. 3 seller and Universal Studios’ Land of the Lost the No. 3 renter.

On the Blu-ray Disc chart, Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs came in second after spending its first two weeks in stores at No. 1.


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post #7289 of 11556 Old 10-29-2009, 07:20 AM
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This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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post #7290 of 11556 Old 10-29-2009, 07:23 AM
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This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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