BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 247 - AVS Forum
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post #7381 of 11556 Old 11-20-2009, 01:20 AM
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post #7382 of 11556 Old 11-20-2009, 01:21 AM
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2008 to 2009 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary

Updated thru 11/15/09

Code:
           YTD x        YTD +%

Blu-ray    2.374      137.42 %
DVD        0.925       -7.54 %
DVD+BD     0.984       -1.65 %  
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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post #7383 of 11556 Old 11-20-2009, 01:42 AM
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I revised the format for the summary table.

It now includes comparisons for the current fourth quarter to date , end of fourth quarter, current year to date and end of year data for both 2008 and 2009 revenues.

This allows for comparison not only for the YTD period but also for the current and past 4Q periods for both 2008 and 2009.

4Q 2009 Blu-ray cumulative data is in blue highlight.
Current and YTD 2009 Blu-ray data is in red highlight.

Quote:
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS
Code:
Date Range                 DVD    Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending             revenue   revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
2009
4QTD 10/04/09-11/15/09  1,241.54   214.07   1,455.61  14.71%   17.24  18.68%
 YTD 01/04/09-11/15/09  7,957.96   865.38   8,823.34   9.81%   10.87  13.25%
2008
4QTD 10/05/08-11/16/08  1,288.94    92.60   1,381.54   6.70%    7.18  10.14%
EO4Q 10/05/08-12/28/08  3,937.46   259.90   4,197.36   6.19%    6.60  10.85%
 YTD 01/06/08-11/16/08  8,606.61   364.50   8,971.11   4.06%    4.24   6.91%
 EOY 01/06/08-12/28/08 11,255.13   531.80  11,786.93   4.51%    4.72   7.46%

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
Average 4QTD 2009         177.36    30.58     207.94  14.71%   17.24  18.68%
Average  YTD 2009         173.00    18.81     191.81   9.81%   10.87  13.25%
2008
Average 4QTD 2008         184.13    13.23     197.36   6.70%    7.18  10.14%
Average EO4Q 2008         302.88    19.99     322.87   6.19%    6.60  10.85%
Average  YTD 2008         187.10     7.92     195.02   4.06%    4.24   6.91%
Average  EOY 2008         216.44    10.23     226.67   4.51%    4.72   7.46%

EO4Q 2008 AVERAGES (12 weeks, average per week)  10/05/08 thru  12/28/08
EOY  2008 AVERAGES (52 weeks, average per week)  01/06/08 thru  12/28/08)


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post #7384 of 11556 Old 11-20-2009, 01:45 AM
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The following 4Q specific charts also have been added to the revenue set.


This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

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post #7385 of 11556 Old 11-20-2009, 07:38 AM
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Quote:


BD Sales: November 9-15 – Pixar Goes Up in Monster Week (Update)
Posted November 19, 2009 04:00 AM by Juan Calonge

Two titles from Pixar Animation Studios and released by Disney were the top sellers in the week ended November 15, according to Nielsen VideoScan. 'Up' was the clear number one. 'Monsters, Inc.' followed, with Blu-ray sales so strong that they propelled the title to number 6 on the overall packaged-media sales chart.

The research department of Home Media Magazine estimates that total DVD and Blu-ray first-week unit sales of 'Up' were near 5 million. The BD market share for the title was 24%, a record for the genre; recent similar titles, such as 'Monsters vs Aliens' and 'Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs', had sold under 15% of its total sales on Blu-ray in their first week on shelves.

Here is the Blu-ray top 10 (previous-week ranking in parenthesis):
• Up
• Monsters, Inc.
(1) G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
(3) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
(4) Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
• The Ugly Truth
• Heat
(2) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
(5) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
(17) Monsters vs Aliens
Regarding BD sales percentages, 'The Ugly Truth' made only 6% for Blu-ray.

Overall, BD sales revenue was $41.03 million, the highest figure this year so far (higher even than release week for Transformers 2), up 164.14% from the same week last year. Total sales in the fourth quarter so far have been $214.07 million, up 131% year on year.

Packaged-media sales revenue was $244.79 million, down 4.34% year-on-year. Blu-ray accounted for 16.8% of that revenue.



http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3762

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post #7386 of 11556 Old 11-21-2009, 02:17 AM
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The theatrical box office totals for the next couple weeks are very very strong and are pretty close to the TBO for last week. That implies that DVD and Blu-ray revenues will continue to be very strong and should really leap with the seasonal factors of the Black Friday sales (the week ending 11/15/09 TBO was $381.89 +323.88% over last year)

After that we are into December holiday sales....If we have big weeks the next two weeks the seasonal variation after that will naturally carry DVD and Blu-ray sales even higher. The only question is the big spike in sales in the week ending 50 sales last year was The Dark Knight and its unlikely any one title this year will beat that for DVD sales, although with the numbers for Up being so high its likely that the Harry Potter saga will together beat it on Blu-ray.

After that we are into December holiday sales....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Upcoming weeks 2009 Total Box Office Power (TBO) and percentage change from the TBO of the matching week in 2008 $M

11/29/09 TBO $326.11 -4.61% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
11/22/09 TBO $384.56 +1.73% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)





release dates are all 5 days before (Tuesday) before the week ending dates (on Sunday)

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

Quote:
Upcoming 4Q 2009 Blu-ray release weeks

November 17, 2009 (week ending 11/22/09 #47)
Brüno (Universal)
Chasing Amy (Disney/Buena Vista)
Clerks (Disney/Buena Vista)
Darwin's Darkest Hour (National Geographic)
Earth, Wind and Fire: Live at Montreaux 1997 (Eagle Rock)
Fight Club: 10th Anniversary Edition (20th Century Fox)
Franklyn (Image)
Fullmetal Alchemist the Movie: Conqueror of Shamballa (FUNimation)
Galaxy Quest (Paramount)
Gone with the Wind: 70th Anniversary Ultimate Collector's Edition (Warner)
Is Anybody There? (Magnolia)
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia: A Very Sunny Christmas (20th Century Fox)
Kevin Smith Box Set (Disney/Buena Vista)
Léon: The Professional (Sony)
Marilyn Manson: Guns, God and Government - Live In L.A. (Eagle Rock)
My Sister's Keeper (New Line)
The Open Road (Anchor Bay)
Rome: The Complete Series (HBO)
Scrubs: The Complete Eighth Season (MGM)
Sex, Lies, and Videotape (Sony)
Star Trek Limited Edition Replica Gift Set (Amazon Exclusive) (Paramount)
Star Trek [2009] (Paramount)

November 23, 2009 (week ending 11/29/09 #48)
Aeon Flux: The Complete Animated Collection (MTV Network)
Metallica: Français pour une nuit (Universal Music)
November 24, 2009
Air America (Lionsgate)
Angel Heart (Lionsgate)
Angels & Demons (Sony)
Angels & Demons Gift Set (Sony)
Blood: The Last Vampire (2000) (Manga)
Cujo: 25th Anniversary Edition (Lionsgate)
Four Christmases (New Line Cinema)
Frailty (Lionsgate)
Funny People (Universal)
Ghost in the Shell 2.0 (Manga)
Gomorrah (Criterion Collection)
Megafault (The Asylum)
The Monster Squad: 20th Anniversary Edition (Lionsgate)
My Bloody Valentine: Special Edition (Lionsgate)
My Brilliant Career (Blue Underground)
New Police Story (Lionsgate)
Santa Buddies (Walt Disney)
Shorts (Warner Brothers)
The Sopranos: The Complete First Season (HBO)
The Way of the Gun (Lionsgate)

December 01, 2009 (week ending 12/06/09 #49)
Ben 10: Alien Swarm (Warner Brothers)
A Christmas Tale (Criterion)
Death Warrior (Lionsgate)
Gimme Shelter (Criterion)
The Green Mile (Warner)
Gremlins (Warner)
Gunslinger Girl: Season 1 (FUNimation)
IMAX: Ride Around the World (Image)
Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels (Universal)
The Mask of Zorro (Sony)
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (20th Century Fox)
Paper Heart (Anchor Bay)
Secondhand Lions (New Line)
Snatch (Sony)
Terminator Salvation (Warner)

December 08, 2009 (week ending 12/13/09 #50)
AC/DC: No Bull (Sony Music)
The Alphabet Killer (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Cyclops (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: Ultimate Edition (Warner Brothers)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Warner Brothers)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: Ultimate Edition (Warner Brothers)
Harry Potter Years 1-6 Giftset (Warner Brothers)
Jack Brooks: Monster Slayer (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Julie & Julia (Sony)
Lost: The Complete Fifth Season (Walt Disney)
Lost: The Complete Fifth Season Dharma Initiation Kit (Disney/Buena Vista)
Lower Learning (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Pink: Funhouse Tour - Live from Australia (La Face)
Public Enemies: Special Edition (Universal)
Red Mist (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Sands of Oblivion (Starz/Anchor Bay)
UFC: Ultimate 100 Greatest Fights (Starz/Anchor Bay)
World's Greatest Dad (Magnolia)

December 15, 2009 (week ending 12/20/09 #51)
Basilisk: The Complete Series (FUNimation)
G-FORCE (Disney/Buena Vista)
The Hangover (Warner Brothers)
Inglourious Basterds (Universal)
La Boheme (Kultur)
La Boheme (Kultur)
The Mel Brooks Collection (20th Century Fox)
The Other Man (Image)
Samurai Champloo: The Complete Collection (FUNimation)
Star Trek: The Original Series - Season 3 (CBS)
Taking Woodstock (Universal)

December 22, 2009 (week ending 12/27/09 #52)
(500) Days of Summer (Fox Searchlight)
All About Steve (20th Century Fox)
American Pie: The Book of Love (Universal)
Beyond a Reasonable Doubt (2009) (Anchor Bay)
District 9 (Sony)
Extract (Disney/Buena Vista)
Family Guy Presents: Something Something Something Dark Side (20th Century Fox)
It Might Get Loud (Sony)
Pandorum (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Staten Island (National Media)

December 29, 2009 (week ending 01/03/10 #53/#1)
9 (Universal)
Capitalism: A Love Story (Starz/Anchor Bay)
Ichi: The Movie (FUNimation)
Jennifer's Body (20th Century Fox)
The Marine 2 (20th Century Fox)
A Perfect Getaway (Universal)


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post #7387 of 11556 Old 11-21-2009, 02:48 AM
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Quote:
Rosy (Blu-ray) Forecast for 2010

By :Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 20 Nov 2009
tarnold@questex.com,

Could it be? Yes, I believe it is. Ladies and gentlemen, ahem, we have some, uh, good news for a change. It's hard to say that phrase, "good news." But it feels refreshing, uplifting, invigorating, even — as foreign to these ears as it may be.

The good news I am referring to is that Screen Digest, a respected industry analyst that's been tracking home entertainment trends and statistics for years, believes packaged media is in for recovery as early as next year. A surge in Blu-ray Disc sales, brought on by the proliferation of cheap players, will trigger a boom in software sales that will be big enough to more than offset any further declines in DVD sales (for the complete story, click here).

Now, I'm certainly not one to do any premature celebrating, not after the year we've had--a year that is mercifully coming to an end. But I do believe Screen Digest's rosy prediction is a valid one, because there seems to be a perfect storm brewing that just might blow the roof off previous Blu-ray Disc sales projections.

You've got prices for big hit titles falling below the $20 mark at major retailers from Wal-Mart and Best Buy to Amazon.com.

You've got brash new front-and-center Blu-ray Disc displays at Best Buy, Fry's and other big retailers.

You've got HDTVs in more than half of all U.S. households, and the growing realization among consumers that the highest-quality source of true HD entertainment is Blu-ray Disc.

And you've got innovative programs like the Disney-spawned combo pack, which lets consumers buy a Blu-ray Disc, a DVD and a digital copy all in one affordably priced package, and Warner's new trade-in offer, in which consumers can send in their old DVDs and get a new Blu-ray Disc for just $7.95 (plus shipping, which brings the total cost to about $13, still well below the cost of a new Blu-ray Disc movie).


What we need now is an industrywide education campaign that ties everything together. I'm talking ads and commercials with the message: "Go Blu. The best gift for your high-def TV is a high-def disc."

Who's going to take the lead on this one?


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks...-forecast-2010

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post #7388 of 11556 Old 11-23-2009, 03:36 AM
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Latest digital edition from HMM with data from week ending 11/15/09 is now available.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=2






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post #7389 of 11556 Old 11-23-2009, 03:44 AM
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The re-release of the extended cut of Watchmen did 54% it's first week of sale.

The original release did 37% Blu-ray market share,

A new version release also available on DVD hitting over 50% Blu-ray market share is significant.

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post #7390 of 11556 Old 11-23-2009, 07:21 AM
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They noticed that too.

Quote:


BD Snags over Half of Watchmen Ultimate Cut Sales

Posted November 23, 2009 06:49 AM by Juan Calonge

According to data from Nielsen VideoScan First Alert for the week ended November 15, 54.31% of all sales of 'Watchmen: The Ultimate Cut' 'Watchmen: The Ultimate Cut' came from the Blu-ray edition.

This is a new first-week record for a title simultaneously released on Blu-ray and DVD.

'Watchmen' had already set a record 36% BD market share when the Director's Cut was released (see blu-ray.com post of July 30).

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3783

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post #7391 of 11556 Old 11-23-2009, 09:08 AM
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I assume that is the first one to come in at over 50% as well? Can any one say why this title? I'm not dising this title I am just curious.
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post #7392 of 11556 Old 11-23-2009, 10:36 AM
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This Ultimate cut is for the hardcore Watchmen fans. I don't know how many copies were sold, but it's telling with this particular movie sets the mark for highest % of sales going to Blu-ray twice. One particular group of people are bying it soley.

I personally purchased it because of how cheap it was on Amazon.
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post #7393 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 06:08 AM
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The top 20 units sales for the week ending 11/15/09 from The-Numbers.com (Nash Information Services) is now up.

Up obviously was huge with 5,296,538 units sold on their charts.

Overall the top 20 DVD titles did 10,529,835 units and with Blu-ray having a 18.61% top 20 unit marketshare as calculated by Home Media Magazine, that extends out to an estimated 2,407,670 Blu-ray units sold for the week ending 11/15/09.

Just shy of TDK week and by far the best for the year so far for both DVD and Blu-ray.

Code:
Week Ending 11/15/09

Date     DVDTop20    DVD%    TotalTop20    BD%      BDTop20  BD/DVD*100    
Top 20 
11/15/09  10,529,835  81.39%  12,937,505  18.61%  2,407,670  22.87
Up
11/15/09   5,296,538  76.29%   6,942,637  23.71%  1,646,099  31.08
At a 23.71% Blu-ray unit marketshare for Up, that translates to 1,646,099 Blu-ray copies of Up being sold. But thats probably a bit high as the HMM reported Nielsen Videoscan percentage is calculated without Wal-Mart input and would tend to overstate the Blu-ray units sold at Wal-Mart.


http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...y/thisweek.php



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post #7394 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 02:08 PM
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post #7395 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 02:10 PM
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post #7396 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 02:13 PM
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Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Updated through 11/15/09 units data

Comparing the estimates for 1Q+2Q+3Q+4QTD 2009 versus 1Q+2Q+3Q+4QTD 2008 top 20 unit sales

Code:
           YTD x        YTD +%

Blu-ray    2.26      +125.52%
DVD        1.09        +8.55%
DVD+BD     1.17       +16.70%                   
[code]
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post #7397 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 11:57 PM
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Hey everyone! I chimed in a few weeks ago, asking a few questions about the possibility of constructing a Blu-Ray Sales Chart using HMM's figures in conjunction with The-Numbers', and I just wanted to check back in with everyone, and say that I've gone ahead an done the calculations, and created a Blu-Ray Sales Estimates Chart on my website. You can see the whole thing right here: (ERGH I can't link to this because I'm a new member, but you can copy and paste) I thought readers of this forum might be interested. I understand that these are just rough estimates, but I started by calculating about 10 different movies' Blu-Ray sales based on their HMM Blu-Ray share and their DVD sales estimates from The-Numbers. Then, I used these numbers to figure out how many Blu-Ray copies Up (the #1 movie) would have sold, and I got a range of about 1.4-2.1 million copies. I used the film that gave me the median result, which was Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen. I think it's a fairly good method. I'll keep trying to refine it as I go.
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post #7398 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 11:59 PM
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This post is my third post, so that I can post a link in the next one.... Sorry for the annoyance, but I'm not trying to spam- I really want to show you this because you are the people that helped me figure out how to make it!
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post #7399 of 11556 Old 11-24-2009, 11:59 PM
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Maybe I can post the link now? Blu-Ray Sales Chartl
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post #7400 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 04:37 AM
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Awesome

Great job. I look forward to seeing it each week.

I would only add "By Title" to the title

Its the same method as my calculation for the top 20 units.

One question, I assume you are using the one calculation for the #1 bestselling Blu-ray title and then extending it down from the Top 20 Blu-ray Disc chart?

Since Wal-Mart does not participate in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert database and it is included in The-Numbers.com estimate, this method will tend to overestimate the sell through sales direct to consumers a bit since Wal-Mart proportionally sells more DVDs and less Blu-ray as a percentage at the moment. But its getting closer and any overages these calculations would bring are probably equal to the studio inclusion of rental outlets sales and other non tracked outlets.

Once again though even if the magnitude is off the trends and relative measures between the title each week and over time would be accurate.

Besides it the best data we routinely have each week.

Good job.

Quote:


WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2009
New Feature: Blu-Ray Sales Chart


Fellow Box Office Junkies, I am very, very excited about what I have just accomplished! For the past few weeks, I've been earnestly trying to find some sort of reliable figures for weekly Blu-Ray sales, so I could construct a Blu-Ray Sales Chart. I've never seen one on the internet, for Nielsen VideoScan doesn't release sales figures for Blu-Ray releases, but I think that with the rise in Blu-Ray consumption, a convenient chart would be extremely useful. Thus, I've been combing through websites, googling my fingers off, and looking through many forums, hoping to find accurate sales figures. As it turns out, I couldn't. Therefore, I decided, "Hey, if no one else is going to bother making a chart, then I should do it! Someone has to be interested, right?" Thus, I've been doing my research, and I think I have devised a reliable method for calculating some Blu-Ray sales estimates. Using a combination of The-Numbers DVD Sales Chart, Home Media Magazine's Blu-Ray share charts (here), and my very own calculator, I have constructed what I believe to be the first ever Blu-Ray Sales Chart!

Now, keep in mind that the chart that follows is dealing with estimates only! In no way can I be sure of what the exact sales figures are, but I did a good amount of math to make sure that these approximate values offered a good idea of Blu-Ray sales, and I think these are pretty sensible numbers. Also, you should know that Nielsen VideoScan does not include Wal-Mart in its figures, so those numbers are not factored into the chart. Finally, because this is the first time I've ever done this, I don't have total units listed for any movies except the ones that debuted this week. That's just going to be the case for a while. Thus, without further ado, I present to you TBOJ's Blu-Ray Sales Chart. It's pretty interesting, and I hope you enjoy it! Let me know in the comments if this is something you want to see on a regular basis.



Top 20 Blu-Ray Sales Estimates by Title for Week Ending November 15, 2009
Code:
Rank    Units this Week Total Units             Title

Rank    Units this Week         Title   Total Units

1       1,513,714       Up*     1,513,714
2       278,221         Monsters Inc.   278,221
3       166,206         G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra*    -
4       121,854         Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen*    -
5       103,387         Snow White And The Seven Dwarves        -
6       67,209          The Ugly Truth  67,209
7       53,888          Heat    53,888
8       53,736          The Taking of Pelham 123*       -
9       51,466          Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs  -
10      28,004          Monsters Vs. Aliens     -
11      27,852          Cars    -
12      22,100          The Terminator  -
13      22,100          Tinker Bell And The Lost Treasure       -
14      21,343          X-Men Origins: Wolverine        -
15      20,284          The Watchmen: The Ultimate Cut  20,284
16      20,132          The Dark Knight -
17      18,165          Godzilla        -
18      17,408          It's A Wonderful Life   -
19      17,256          Star Wars: The Clone Wars - Season One  -
20      14,986          The Boondock Saints     -

http://blog.theboxofficejunkie.com/2...les-chart.html

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post #7401 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 07:06 AM
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HMM posted year to date numbers through 11/15/09 for Blu-ray and DVD.



Thats just a small bit off my cumulative chart calculations of 7,957.96 M and 865.38 M for the even weeks ending 1/04/09 through 11/15/09 that I have on my charts (due to rounding of the weekly figures).

The new figures actually calculate out to a gain in combined DVD + Blu-ray revenues for the year if you do the math. HMM is not highlighting that at the moment, but if thats the case the 4Q 2009 surge has Blu-ray covering DVDs attrition and would seem to indicate that many consumers are transitioning to Blu-ray from DVD and that the last six weeks of DVD and Blu-ray sales are overcoming some of the earlier in the year reported year to date sales decline for DVD.

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post #7402 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 09:14 AM
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The new YTD chart from HMM calculates out almost exactly to what I had before as the figures are less than 0.1% off my weekly cumulative figures and YTD change figures. So my running total for each week is right on target.




2008 to 2009 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary

Updated thru 11/15/09

Code:
           YTD x        YTD +%

Blu-ray    2.374      137.42 %
DVD        0.925       -7.54 %
DVD+BD     0.984       -1.65 %  

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post #7403 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 09:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

HMM posted year to date numbers through 11/15/09 for Blu-ray and DVD.



Thats just a small bit off my cumulative chart calculations of 7,957.96 M and 865.38 M for the even weeks ending 1/04/09 through 11/15/09 that I have on my charts (due to rounding of the weekly figures).

The new figures actually calculate out to a gain in combined DVD + Blu-ray revenues for the year if you do the math. HMM is not highlighting that at the moment, but if thats the case the 4Q 2009 surge has Blu-ray covering DVDs attrition and would seem to indicate that many consumers are transitioning to Blu-ray from DVD and that the last six weeks of DVD and Blu-ray sales are overcoming some of the earlier in the year reported year to date sales decline for DVD.

As we have discussed, we will have to see if this trend holds for the rest of Q4 or not. I have the concern that the release schedule is creating a temporary bump in sales that may not be sustained. Note that TDK was in December 2008, and we have nothing that innately powerful scheduled for December 2009.

OTOH, there is a huge surge in player sales happening right now with prices falling hourly. If I am reading the trend correctly, we will have larger player sales than anyone predicted.

I ran some numbers showing what happens to Blu-ray disk sales based on some assumptions, and we could easily see over $100M bump in Q4 based solely on modest disk sales per machine but with a large number of machines.

This would be in addition to normal holiday sales and the release schedule. If this happens, we should see big increases in the sales of titles from earlier in the fall and general catalog.

We also may see a "fifth quarter" effect with a lot of disk sales in January.
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post #7404 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 10:15 AM
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Seems like an odd time for YTD numbers to come out when they could wait a month and a half and get the full years numbers.

The big trend I am seeing that has really got to be helping is disk prices under $10. Not just one or two but a lot of disks. That has got to be taking the wind out of DVDs sales. It looks like we won't get the really big peaks this year like last year but that was predictable. It will be interesting to see if there is a 100% increase in sales come the end of the year. Jan and Feb of this year were good for disk sales but I am not seeing much on the release schedule for that period in 2010.

Last year were got some reports on BF player sales. I wonder if we will get any this year. Supplies shouldn't be as short this year as last year.
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post #7405 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

The big trend I am seeing that has really got to be helping is disk prices under $10. Not just one or two but a lot of disks.

As a buyer of almost entirely catalogue titles. I'm in my glory. I really have almost no interest in the new movies. I don't think I have one title in the top 20 (I have 170 BDs as of yesterday).

I picked up 3 catalogue titles yesterday and that set me back about $45.00.

My recent buys: NIGHT OF THE CREEPS, HARDWARE, AIR AMERICA, MY BLOODY VALENTINE. MONSTER SQUAD...only GALAXY QUEST cost me more than $20.00. I put several $10.00 titles on my Xmas wishlist.

This is a far cry from two years ago when I thought a "2 BDs for $50.00" sale was a great bargain!
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post #7406 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

Seems like an odd time for YTD numbers to come out when they could wait a month and a half and get the full years numbers.

The big trend I am seeing that has really got to be helping is disk prices under $10. Not just one or two but a lot of disks. That has got to be taking the wind out of DVDs sales. It looks like we won't get the really big peaks this year like last year but that was predictable. It will be interesting to see if there is a 100% increase in sales come the end of the year. Jan and Feb of this year were good for disk sales but I am not seeing much on the release schedule for that period in 2010.

Last year were got some reports on BF player sales. I wonder if we will get any this year. Supplies shouldn't be as short this year as last year.

Its the day before Thanksgiving and they probably have the office closed today and they are not going to have time to do the normal preparation this week in time for the deadline for next Mondays publication date.

So they probably closed the magazine last night for publication.

They are just throwing us all a bone with the YTD chart instead of the weekly chart on the front page. I'll be surprised if we get any 11/22/09 info today, but we still might later on.

HMM has a habit of giving us YTD and summary data when they have short office weeks.

I don't see $10 Blu-ray catalog titles taking the wind out of DVD sales as much as encouraging people to buy into Blu-ray and double dip their old DVD library a bit more. Most of those $10 Blu-ray Discs were long dormant on DVD sales anyway.

We can have a lot of new titles released in January and February that have not been announced yet, but more important is retailers showing a lot more of the 2000 Blu-ray titles already in release on the store shelves at reasonable prices.

With Blu-ray players being hot gifts this season there will be some sort of post holiday surge, one question is will it start to happen before the holiday season ends as those gift Blu-ray players may be unwrapped and started to be used before Christmas Day comes around.

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post #7407 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

As we have discussed, we will have to see if this trend holds for the rest of Q4 or not. I have the concern that the release schedule is creating a temporary bump in sales that may not be sustained. Note that TDK was in December 2008, and we have nothing that innately powerful scheduled for December 2009.

OTOH, there is a huge surge in player sales happening right now with prices falling hourly. If I am reading the trend correctly, we will have larger player sales than anyone predicted.

I ran some numbers showing what happens to Blu-ray disk sales based on some assumptions, and we could easily see over $100M bump in Q4 based solely on modest disk sales per machine but with a large number of machines.

This would be in addition to normal holiday sales and the release schedule. If this happens, we should see big increases in the sales of titles from earlier in the fall and general catalog.

We also may see a "fifth quarter" effect with a lot of disk sales in January.

A Fifth Quarter for Blu-ray is likely. It happened in January of last year and the hardware sales were a tiny fraction of what is happening now.

For the next 6 weeks through the end of the year the release schedule has big box office numbers. It should be equal or above last year with the sole exception being The Dark Knight release week. Thats a tough one for DVD to exceed but Blu-ray should top that week easily YTY.

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post #7408 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 01:11 PM
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Another thanks for Kosty and the gang.

Funny thing: I hate following box office numbers, with the current trend of emphasising X movie "beating out" Y movie. (It's amazing how today's society reflexively turns everything into a competition - "So you paint egg tempera images of deep sea vents with your toes? There's a COMPETITION for that, you know!").

But I'm addicted to this thread. Mostly, I think, for somewhat selfish reasons that I've wanted Hi-Def media to succeed, so as many movies as possible will become available in Hi-Def.
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post #7409 of 11556 Old 11-25-2009, 01:14 PM
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Quote:



Blu-ray Year-to-Date Revenues 137% Up

Posted November 25, 2009 05:06 AM by Juan Calonge

According to data collected by the research department of Home Media Magazine, revenue from Blu-ray Disc in 2009 through November 15 was $865.89 million, up 137.56% from the same period in 2008. In turn, DVD earned $7,957.93 million, down 7.54%; thanks to Blu-ray, packaged media revenues have dropped only 1.6% year-on-year. BD had an average packaged-media market share of 10%.



http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3795

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Quote:
Originally Posted by R Harkness View Post

Another thanks for Kosty and the gang.

Funny thing: I hate following box office numbers, with the current trend of emphasising X movie "beating out" Y movie. (It's amazing how today's society reflexively turns everything into a competition - "So you paint egg tempera images of deep sea vents with your toes? There's a COMPETITION for that, you know!").

But I'm addicted to this thread. Mostly, I think, for somewhat selfish reasons that I've wanted Hi-Def media to succeed, so as many movies as possible will become available in Hi-Def.

I do this instead of fantasy football.

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