BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 25 - AVS Forum
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post #721 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 05:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mack View Post

it was a sticky and it was more than one thread until last nite... go figure.

Surprise to me, too. Gave it back its original name and re-stickied it. Sometimes, the forum software trainwrecks when we merge threads. It appears at first glance that may be what happened. Apologies.

On another note: some off topic posts have been removed. Discussion of moderator actions in open forums is strictly prohibited.

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post #722 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 05:54 AM
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Well, as expected with little HD DVD content for the next couple of months, the charts are looking grim/great (depends on which side you're cheering for ... )

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/histo...YPE=10&SPAN=14
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post #723 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 06:16 AM
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Well HD DVD is still leading in: the total copies in stock at Amazon + the number of movies that can ship today

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/
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post #724 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 08:51 AM
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dvdempire.com is now totally offbase. Their numbers make no sense, weekly shows Blu-ray in a healthy lead and for the year so far. But then monthly is reversed? HD-DVD in lead? That's not even possibel if the weekly sales have been in blu-rays favor all year every week so far.

They also dropped from 210 titles available to 160? Me thinks they have supply shortages or something is really messed up.

Anyway, Blu-ray is still going strong in this supposed "bubble" People that are saying that will dissappear once better PS3 games are out? Really? You really think so.

When I got a PS2 I had no DVDs at all. And even when PS2 started belting out big titles like MGS2, FFX, GTA. Guess what, I still bought dvds cause DVD players were still 150, 200 dollars. Why would I stop buying DVDs?

Same circumstance for the PS3, you think people will really stop buying blu-rays? I'm an average consumer, not an AV eccentric must have Hi-def guy. I don't even have my PS3 yet but will be getting one. I don't think I will stop buying Blu-rays once I start, in fact I think all NEW movies I want will be all on blu-ray and older movies I already have will stay on DVD. I think that's how the majority of average consumers think.

PS3 will get a price break later this year (probably for the holidays) which will keep it about as cheap as any HD-DVD player. Just because great games will be out (MGS4, FFXIII, Killzone, GTA) doesn't mean I don't want say....Spidey III or POC III which will both be out for the Holidays.

It's not like once the games come the player will be broken...LMAO. Oh no, now that there are good games I can't watch Blu-rays anymore....yeah right. You'll want to show off every new movie you can to pals and friends and the best titles are almost all going to be blu-ray.

Also, on a side note. People keep talking up Universal. They have not as off yet announced any of the big titles people say they have already announced. The only official ones are all weak as heck movies.

As for as Jurassic Park, Jaws, E.T. has anyone even confirmed Universal can release these? Like with Star Wars, Fox doesn't own those movies, Lucas does. I'm fairly certain Spielburg owns several of his titles too and the distribution rights. Indiana Jones I don't see coming out soon either as both Lucas and Spielburg own that one.
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post #725 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 09:30 AM
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Oh snap. Just found this story.

Again, anecdotal evidence and it's a blog. But in Canada Future shop is the Best Buy (incedently Best buy owns it).

http://www.unstable.com/blog/

Appears that some Future Shops may be pulling HD-DVDs from shelves and stocking online only.
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post #726 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 11:09 AM
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New Info guys. Interesting. Since inception of the two players according to NPD.

High-def player sales even, says NPD Group Tight supply of Toshiba HD DVD models could be a factor By Susanne Ault 2/2/2007

FEB. 2 | Despite price differences, high-definition stand-alone Blu-ray and HD DVD players are neck-and-neck in sales, according to the NPD Group. Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500. One possible contributing factor to the results is that retailers have noted tight Toshiba inventory relative to the flusher availability of stand-alone Blu-ray players. Also, there are more Blu-ray manufacturers than HD DVD manufacturers releasing stand-alone players.

NPD's data excludes sales of high-def gaming devices, the Blu-ray-compatible PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360's HD DVD drive. NPD plans to update this information on a quarterly basis.

Sounds like Toshiba has production problems period. Interesting, this must mean Blu-ray movies really did not have a lot of selection and the quality was bad which means a lot of people bought more HD-DVDs than Blu-ray player owners were willing to buy Blu-rays.

This story also contradicts what Toshiba said, they inferred Blu-ray stand alone sales were only about 25,000 in 2006.

Link: http://www.videobusiness.com/article....html?nid=2705
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post #727 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stromprophet View Post

Interesting, this must mean Blu-ray movies really did not have a lot of selection and the quality was bad which means a lot of people bought more HD-DVDs than Blu-ray player owners were willing to buy Blu-rays.

Uh, what? And in terms of counting players, not having data for the PS3 makes it a nearly meaningless metric as the number of people on this very forum that have a PS3 mainly for Blu-Ray playback attests to that.
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post #728 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by teiresias View Post

Uh, what? And in terms of counting players, not having data for the PS3 makes it a nearly meaningless metric as the number of people on this very forum that have a PS3 mainly for Blu-Ray playback attests to that.

What point are you not clear on?

This data was compiled from April to December (April being the inception month for Hi-def players correct? In the US?) and excludes the PS3.

So at years end the number of stand alone players on both formats was practically equal right? So why was Blu-ray far behind in sales most of the year? (until the end of December in Fact)

My conclusion is it was because of weak titles, a lack of titles (they were behind HD-DVD in total releases), and also misteps in PQ, such as the 5th Element, or any other number of titles that just did not look as good as HD-DVD.

It's not a meaningless metric because in coming years stand alone players will eventually outsell gaming machines like the PS3. It's meaningful in the fact that it points out that Blu-ray stand alone player sales are a lot stronger than most people think and Toshiba is obviously having production issues because they were unable to keep availibility for a low volume item, I'd like to see how they plan to sell 1.8 million HD-DVD players this year when they couldn't get production issues out of the way for about 100,000 players last year.
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post #729 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 12:07 PM
 
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The 25K BD Player sales v. 120K HD DVD player sales was reported by The Wall Street Journal and not Toshiba. Anyone who works with data will tell you to always go with a source that gives you actual numbers v. percentages.

So, for player sales since the % contradicts the actual units sold. I'll go with the number of units. Wall St. Journal is a respected source of info. In my books.
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post #730 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

The 25K BD Player sales v. 120K HD DVD player sales was reported by The Wall Street Journal and not Toshiba. Anyone who works with data will tell you to always go with a source that gives you actual numbers v. percentages.

So, for player sales since the % contradicts the actual units sold. I'll go with the number of units. Wall St. Journal is a respected source of info. In my books.

NPD is THE SOURCE, for numbers of actual sales, in % or units or otherwise. And I think I distinctly recall Toshiba is the one who originally announced such numbers a CES this year. All the other analysts stories came out after that.

NPD is a better source than any other firm in the entire world for retail sales of electronics and other items in North America. It doesn't matter whether they told you a percentage or number of units sold.

Would you disagree with them about their figure for HD-DVD add on sales for the 360? Cause that number is really low too.
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post #731 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stromprophet View Post

dvdempire.com is now totally offbase. Their numbers make no sense, weekly shows Blu-ray in a healthy lead and for the year so far. But then monthly is reversed? HD-DVD in lead? That's not even possibel if the weekly sales have been in blu-rays favor all year every week so far.

They're back to normal now:


Week: BD 66.67% HD-DVD 33.33%
Month: BD 69.93% HD-DVD 30.07
Year: BD 57.79% HD-DVD 42.21
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post #732 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 12:19 PM
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So Toshiba claim 25,000 in 2006? What about the BDA?

If it's true, it's very bad news. The arguement all along was that Toshiba were shifting more units because they were much cheaper. Now it looks like despite the massive price gap, people still don't want HD DVD. This backs up some well know economic/psychological theory

Quote:


dvdempire.com is now totally offbase.

A little, yes, until you learn the new system. Previously they were using week, month and year to mean the previous 7/30/365 days (approx), now they're doing it by calander week,month and year. Remember that yesterday's figures for "month" were basically the sales for 1st Feb only. So in the month so far (which was 1 day) HD DVD were leading but the week (Jan 30- Feb 6) they were behind still

Yesterday was a bit strange, HD DVD obviously sold very well on the 1st (54% and high sales) because they managed to knock the 2007 YTD figure down quite a bit. However the latest figures have been published and Blu-ray has not only erased that gain but increased the lead by 1.2% over the YTD figure for the 31st Jan

One odd bit of news is the new Videoscan numbers. For the week ending 21st Jan they seem to have outsold BD so much they've extended their lead in the "since inception" column. This is odd because the DVDempire show BD beating HD DVD that week and although they were loosing on eproductwars they had been loosing in the previous weeks. The following week (ending 28th) saw big gains for BD on amazon so it'll be intersting to see the figures.

Also the gap has been really huge the last two days on eproductwars. On the top 10 the gap has been around 450-500 places, amazing really
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post #733 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 07:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

The 25K BD Player sales v. 120K HD DVD player sales was reported by The Wall Street Journal and not Toshiba. Anyone who works with data will tell you to always go with a source that gives you actual numbers v. percentages.

So, for player sales since the % contradicts the actual units sold. I'll go with the number of units. Wall St. Journal is a respected source of info. In my books.

Do you even know what NPD does?
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post #734 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Wall St. Journal is a respected source of info. In my books.

Sure, but technically the data for sales in that article came from Adams Media Research. Do you really believe that Adams Media Research is a better source of info than NPD?
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post #735 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 09:24 PM
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Blu-ray is really getting it done on Amazon right now. Been following eproductwars a while now. Looks like HD-DVD is falling off a cliff...

And I really don't see any releases thru April that are impressing me...
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post #736 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 10:53 PM
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Wow, the turn around that Blu Ray has made in the past month is absolutely amazing.

I thought something might change with the PS3 and lack of new HD DVD titles, but I never thought it would happen this quick.

Looks like HD DVD better think of something quick or they won't make the year.


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post #737 of 11556 Old 02-03-2007, 11:50 PM
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Careful with your over exuberance guys, the HD DVD supporters on the general media thread are claiming that cheap Chinese players will win the war by grabbing J6P by the wallet.
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post #738 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 09:33 AM
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There are some updated numbers on

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...0407/index.php

check pages 3 then 28
BD is now stated to have a 2:1 advantage in YTD sales, and HD DVD has 100:82.3 advantage since inception.
Last week weren't the numbers
100:38.36 BD advantage YTD
100:92.40 HD DVD advantage SI

If those numbers are accurate, swings that large would tend to indicate pretty low sales figures overall for both formats.

Scott Stephens
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post #739 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by sstephen View Post

There are some updated numbers on

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...0407/index.php

check pages 3 then 28
BD is now stated to have a 2:1 advantage in YTD sales, and HD DVD has 100:82.3 advantage since inception.
Last week weren't the numbers
100:38.36 BD advantage YTD
100:92.40 HD DVD advantage SI

If those numbers are accurate, swings that large would tend to indicate pretty low sales figures overall for both formats.

The explanation for the strange swings in the numbers is that the first two weeks didn't include HD DVD/DVD Combo releases while the new ones do (see the "* Includes HD DVD Combo" on the latest graphic). Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD 2-to-1, they just have a bit further to go until they pass total HD DVD sales since inception.
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post #740 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 01:42 PM
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Possibly Marwin, I just think they put that in there this week to make it clear. I can't believe they would exclude combo's for any reason
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post #741 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 01:46 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marwin View Post

The explanation for the strange swings in the numbers is that the first two weeks didn't include HD DVD/DVD Combo releases while the new ones do (see the "* Includes HD DVD Combo" on the latest graphic). Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD 2-to-1, they just have a bit further to go until they pass total HD DVD sales since inception.

Did they go back and fix the combo issue retrospectively? If yes. Then combos were a very small percentage of HD DVD sales. My guess is that they simply starting counting combo sales from the 3rd week onwards. So their, SI numbers are still off significantly....
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post #742 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 01:51 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Sure, but technically the data for sales in that article came from Adams Media Research. Do you really believe that Adams Media Research is a better source of info than NPD?

I don't know. Probably, Wall Street Journal didn't want to go with a source that would not give them actual numbers!

Just because NPD is reliable for some types of data, does not make them for all. There are nots of problems with collecting data - for instance, returns are often counted multiple times in sales. So when products have high return rates, we will see it being double and triple counted in the PoS data.

So, unless NPD can produce actual volume numbers, their data as presented is worthless. I know this sounds extreme, but I also happen to know how POS data is computed at many retailers. You are free to believe whatever you like....it's up to you.
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post #743 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 01:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phansson View Post

Wow, the turn around that Blu Ray has made in the past month is absolutely amazing.

I thought something might change with the PS3 and lack of new HD DVD titles, but I never thought it would happen this quick.

Looks like HD DVD better think of something quick or they won't make the year.

On the hardware side, HD DVD seems to be doing a lot better than BD.

4 of the top 5 HD format players (excluding game consoles are HD DVD players). The A-2 is #5 and the XA-2 is #10


http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...279731-5297722


Also 53 of the top 100 HD titles are HD DVD.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank....D2FBDDF756414C

I posted this on another thread as well. But I think we are focusing too closely on the top 10 lists as the total picture......
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post #744 of 11556 Old 02-04-2007, 02:21 PM
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here is thread about sales of PLAYERS !

NPD results for 2006: HD-DVD and Blu-ray standalone player sales = EVEN
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=799758

Quote:


Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500.

as you can see 48% BLU-RAY, 52% HD DVD
these numbers are without PS3 and hd dvd addon

so it's not that HD DVD is doing so much better in player sales...

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post #745 of 11556 Old 02-05-2007, 01:38 PM
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I think Sony needs to put a special sale on the PS3 - possible knock the price down by $100 for the 20GB or 60GB for a month to attract new consumers.

It looks like HD-DVD movies are taken a beating by Blu-Ray....If they are down, then just continue kicking them to make sure they stay down with a price reduction on the unit - it's all business. Blu-Ray can end this soon...and might as well take advantage.
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post #746 of 11556 Old 02-05-2007, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MySassyGirl View Post

I think Sony needs to put a special sale on the PS3 - possible knock the price down by $100 for the 20GB or 60GB for a month to attract new consumers.

Why would they do that? There's no need. They would only do that once demand dies down. Even then they may opt to bundle games or BD's with it
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post #747 of 11556 Old 02-05-2007, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by camaj View Post

Why would they do that? There's no need. They would only do that once demand dies down. Even then they may opt to bundle games or BD's with it

Not to mention it still continually holds a high rank on Amazon and sells out very quickly.

Jaws on HD-DVD? We're gonna need a bigger disc!
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post #748 of 11556 Old 02-05-2007, 08:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Meridian View Post

Not to mention it still continually holds a high rank on Amazon and sells out very quickly.

That's kind of what I meant. When demand exceeds supply prices either go up or stay the same. Usually they only drop prices when sales decline

Sadly, for the second day running, DVDempire hasn't updated
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post #749 of 11556 Old 02-05-2007, 08:56 PM
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Did they go back and fix the combo issue retrospectively? If yes. Then combos were a very small percentage of HD DVD sales. My guess is that they simply starting counting combo sales from the 3rd week onwards. So their, SI numbers are still off significantly....

that can't be. The only reason anyone is asking what happened (and some are pointing to combos) is that there is no mathematical way it could be
100:38.36/100:92.40 one week and 100.00:50.51/82.3:100.00 the next

there can be other explenation typo in the second SI, new source that sold well last year but is not anymore.

if we assume everything is right (no typo....) then for these numbers to be true someone must have added a lot in HD DVD in W3 in 2006 that was missing in W1 and W2
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post #750 of 11556 Old 02-06-2007, 03:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camaj View Post

Possibly Marwin, I just think they put that in there this week to make it clear. I can't believe they would exclude combo's for any reason

I got clarification from the editor in chief of the magazine yesterday:

Quote:


The two previous charts did not include HD DVD combos. The charts going forward will. With combos included, the Blu-ray wins in the previous weeks would be a little less impressive. We cannot give out units. Blu-ray may win on an inception basis sometime this month, even with the combos included.

Also, WRT whether they added retrospectively the 2006 numbers:

They definitely have counted them all. A mere correction of the first two-three
weeks would not caused such a swing in the since inception figures.

Firstly, how many units are sold per week? HD DVD shipped units in 2006 were 1.5M, which is an average of 180,000 units per month. Also, sales are likely to have been stronger more recently, thanks to the release of the HD DVD add-on. This is borne out by the graph on thedvdwars site. So, unit sales in 2007 are being of the order of 100,000 - 200,000 units a month, IOW 25,000 - 50,000 a week.

Secondly, most titles sold are not combos. Right now, on the amazon top 10, only one (Hollywoodland) is a combo. On the rentrak ranking (taken from davisdvd), two titles (Superman Returns and Miami Vice) are combos. So I say about 10% - 20% of total sales are combos.

So a correction of at most 20 percent of at most 150,000 units would amount to a maximum of 30,000, ie two orders of magnitude below the since inception figures or both HD DVD and BD. Therefore, negligible.

OTOH adding retroactively the combos for 2006 would be a correction of 10% - 20% of approximately 1.5M titles, ie 150,000 - 300,000 units,
which is enough to affect it visibly.

Also, note how the since inception ratio in W1 without combos and W3 with combos are very very similar, which gives credence to the idea that the correction was similar to two weeks' worth of BD sales: some hundred thousand units.

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