BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 322 - AVS Forum
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Old 04-07-2011, 12:50 AM
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Isn't that a good showing for Black Swan?

I would have thought Black Swan would be more of a rental then a sell through title. I'll be interested in seeing how sales of The Kings Speech compare to Black Swan.
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Old 04-07-2011, 09:33 AM
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I think the Black Swan probably did pretty well its just that Tangled did much better.

We will know better in a week when we get the revenue numbers.

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Old 04-07-2011, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Foxy7 View Post

I would have thought Black Swan would be more of a rental then a sell through title.

Four simple words: Natalie Portman lesbian scene. Trust me, it's a seller.
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Old 04-08-2011, 08:11 PM
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It was a good week. The following weeks should perform pretty good as well.
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Old 04-11-2011, 04:14 PM
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It's a study commissioned by Redbox so grade it accordingly but the NPD Group mostly concurs.


Exclusive: Study Stresses Staying Power of Disc

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/red...wer-disc-23570
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Old 04-13-2011, 06:03 AM
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Just looking at the week ending 04/03/11 numbers.

It looks like Tangled did 40.78% Blu-ray marketshare.

With The-Numbers estimate of 3,463,789 DVD units thats around 2,385,391 Blu-ray units for Tangled and a total of 5,849,180 DVD+BD units for its release week.

That would also translate to 473,081 Blu-ray units of Black Swan with its 43.23% Blu-ray unit marketshare.

Thats probably overstated a bit for Tangled as the Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray marketshare does not include Walmart while the The-Numbers DVD estimate does, but its probably order of magnitude correct.

Thats pretty huge and should be reflected in the WE 04/02/11 revenue numbers we shall see tomorrow.

By far the best week of the year to date.

For scale The-Numbers had Avatar on its release week of 4/25/2010 doing 3,956,575 DVD units.

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Old 04-13-2011, 08:32 AM
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^^^ So you're saying because there are two top-tier hits ("Tangled and "Black Swan") selling well on BD at 40+% that's better than when there's just one mega-hit (like "Avatar" or "Dark Knight") sucking up all the week's BD market share? That, because each is a top seller simultaneously (although I gotta believe "Tangled" will have the longer lasting legs, being an animated CG and all), combined they more more units than one big hit will do on its own? I'm a little confused at this.
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Old 04-13-2011, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dad1153 View Post

^^^ So you're saying because there are two top-tier hits ("Tangled and "Black Swan") selling well on BD at 40+% that's better than when there's just one mega-hit (like "Avatar" or "Dark Knight") sucking up all the week's BD market share? That, because each is a top seller simultaneously (although I gotta believe "Tangled" will have the longer lasting legs, being an animated CG and all), combined they more more units than one big hit will do on its own? I'm a little confused at this.

My view of this is that it is relative to the new releases that are available. Blu-ray, like DVD, is going to have sales that are largely dependent on those new releases. So, the question for any given week is how well Blu-ray is doing in the context of those releases. I take Kosty's comments to be in that spirit.

I suspect that the studios would prefer to have an Avatar-style release (or two) every week but that is not going to happen. In fact, the studio output has been very weak for most of the last year, causing shortfalls across all windows and channels of distribution.
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Old 04-13-2011, 12:38 PM
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Tangled is the leader and will be a blockbuster seller of DVD and Blu-ray units but Black Swan is doing pretty good as a wingman and would by itself have been easily a number one Blu-ray seller on many of the weeks we had earlier this year.

Black Swan will look fairly small on the graphs and have a fraction of sales of Tangled but thats not because it is doing bad but that Tangled is doing that good.

Same thing with other titles for Blu-ray and DVD sales. They look tiny in scale against Tangled in units moved but they still are doing 25,000 to 50,000 or more units for the #2-20 Blu-ray titles, which is actually a little above average.

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Old 04-13-2011, 06:03 PM
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Week ending 04/10/11


68% Tron: Legacy Blu-ray unit marketshare

33% Tangled Blu-ray unit marketshare


Quote:


‘Tron’ Commands the Charts

13 Apr, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Tron: Legacy

In a three-way race between newly released theatrical sequels, it was Tron: Legacy by a mile.

The adrenaline-charged sci-fi actioner from Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment debuted at No. 1 on all three home video charts its first week in stores, riding off a domestic box office gross of $172 million and a worldwide theatrical take of more than $390 million — as well as a ‘PG’ rating.

The week’s two other blockbuster theatrical releases, Universal Studios’ Little Fockers ($148.4 million domestic gross), installment No. 3 in the comedy franchise, and 20th Century Fox’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($104.4 million), also a three-quel, just couldn’t compete.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, Fockers finished a distant third, outdone by sophomore Tangled, from Walt Disney Studios, at No. 2. Nielsen data indicates Tron: Legacy outsold ‘PG-13’-rated Fockers by a 2-to-1 margin, although Nielsen numbers don’t include Walmart or Sam’s Club. Dawn Treader (‘PG’) followed close behind at No. 4.

Tron: Legacy and Tangled finished in the first two spots on Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart, as well, generating a respective 68% and 33% of their unit sales from the format during the week ended April 10.


Dawn Treader, which debuted on a Friday instead of the usual Tuesday and thus had three fewer days to make an impact on the charts, bowed at No. 3, while Little Fockers entered the chart at No. 5. Dawn Treader generated 44% of its first-week unit sales from Blu-ray, while for Little Fockers just 24% of units sold were in high-definition.

On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, Fockers debuted at No. 19 because Universal holds back its new releases from Netflix and Redbox for 28 days. Following Tron: Legacy at No. 1 was the previous week’s top rental, The Tourist, from Sony Pictures, which slipped to No. 2 after two weeks on top.

On the sales front, Tron-mania was so strong that a re-release of the original 1982 film popped up at No. 5 on First Alert and No. 4 on the Blu-ray Disc sales chart — while a combo pack with both films bowed at No. 9 on First Alert and No. 6 on the Blu-ray Disc chart.


Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/10/11

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/10/11

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/10/11

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...s-charts-23655

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Old 04-13-2011, 06:27 PM
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68% is a new record for a big new release on both formats in the first week, IIRC. Inception was 65% last winter.

79% for the original Tron is not bad of course.

We will see 75% before the year is over I predict.


With the industry desperate and running scared, these Blu-ray numbers should be generating some respect.

Kosty: are the studios properly impressed, or are they too busy thinking about the $$$ they hope to make from premium VOD? What do you think?
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Old 04-13-2011, 09:07 PM
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I love reading news like this
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Old 04-13-2011, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

With the industry desperate and running scared, these Blu-ray numbers should be generating some respect.

...or are they too busy thinking about the $$$ they hope to make from premium VOD? What do you think?


I have to comment that I never view the video market this way.

The analogy I use is that movie revenue is not like a congressional election. It's not a case of the "winner" gets 60% and all of the power while the loser get's 40% and goes home with nothing.

I'm not sure who you think is "desperate and running scared". Blu-ray is a revenue stream. As long as it generates money for the studios, it's safe. Boeing didn't stop building 737s when the Airbus A320 started selling more planes. They both make money. I admit that I find percentages interesting but the bottom line is that any profitable revenue stream will be supported.
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Old 04-14-2011, 02:09 PM
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I do not have the revenue data for the week ending 4/02/11 yet.



I do have the Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers unit marketshare for these weeks now:

39.14% 04/03/11 (Tangled, Black Swan)

43.36% 04/10/11 (Tron: Legacy)

That is the metric that measures the Blu-ray unit percentage of all of the discs sold of the bestselling Top 20 Sellers for the week and basically tells us the percentage of new and recent releases that were Blu-ray units.

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Old 04-14-2011, 02:12 PM
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Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit marketshare trends through WE 4/10/11






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Old 04-14-2011, 02:17 PM
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I'll post up the final data for the Nielsen Videoscan numbers for the week ending 03/27/11 and the initial data for the week ending 04/03/10 shortly and as soon as I get it the revenue charts and graphs through 4/02/11 that will be the completed 1Q 2011 and 1Q 2010 data.

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Old 04-14-2011, 03:03 PM
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The growth in that Top 20 Sellers Blu-ray unit marketshare metric which is indicative of how Blu-ray is growing in marketshare with new releases has been pretty steady over time.

The previous year 4Q number is the base for the steady growth in the next year with a dramatic expansion with the holiday 4Q sales which then sets the baseline for the next years number.

The only exception to that pattern was in 3Q 2010 where the releases for 11/13 of those weeks were pretty poor and the two high volume weeks were good but not as good as the year before. 2Q 2010 also was slightly higher because of Avatar so that the drop for 3Q 2010 looked even worse in comparison.

But even then 4Q 2010 jumped back up to where it should have been in the seasonal pattern just as if 3Q 2010 had not occurred like that anyway.


1Q 2011 looks good in this metric and that implies the less than usual revenue growth is a impact on the overall strength of the releases just as the one week of 2Q 2011 to date is showing the strength of the Tron: Legacy and Tangled releases.

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Old 04-14-2011, 04:03 PM
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Tron: Legacy was 100.00 Index with a 68% BD share 32% DVD share.

Tron: 2-Movie Collection was 9.06 Index with 100% BD share 0% DVD share.

Combing the two together would give those two skus of Tron:Legacy a combined 70.66% Blu-ray marketshare if they were counted together.

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Old 04-14-2011, 07:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Tron: Legacy was 100.00 Index with a 68% BD share 32% DVD share.

Tron: 2-Movie Collection was 9.06 Index with 100% BD share 0% DVD share.

Combing the two together would give those two skus of Tron:Legacy a combined 70.66% Blu-ray marketshare if they were counted together.

Very nice.

The 2-movie collection has been sold out for days at our local stores. I wonder if this is general. We might get some idea in future weeks.
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Old 04-15-2011, 08:44 AM
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I still do not revenue data for week ending 04/02/11 yet.

Here is the weekly Nielsen Videoscan data sets for the week ending 04/03/11 and the first set of 04/10/11 data.

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Old 04-15-2011, 08:44 AM
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Week ending 4/03/11 Nielsen Videoscan data




Quote:


‘Tangled’ Unwinds on Top
6 Apr, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Tangled

Tangled, Walt Disney Studios’ animated retelling of the Grimm Brothers’ “Rapunzel” fairy tale, easily slid into the No. 1 spot on the national DVD and Blu-ray Disc sales charts its first week in stores, outselling fellow newcomer Black Swan, from 20th Century Fox, by a 5-to-1 margin.

Tangled grossed just under $200 million in U.S. theaters, while Black Swan, which bowed at No. 2 on both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart and Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart, earned $106.8 million.

Warner’s Yogi Bear, the previous week’s top-selling disc, slipped to No. 4 on First Alert for the week ended April 3. The film finished right behind Paramount/DreamWorks’ Megamind, which rose back up to No. 3 from No. 6 the previous week, perhaps because of all the family movie buyers heading to stores to pick up Tangled. Lionsgate’s Mad Men: Season Four debuted at No. 5.

On the Blu-ray Disc sales chart, Disney’s Bambi was No. 3, “Mad Men” bowed at No. 4, and Paramount’s The Ten Commandments, debuting on Blu-ray Disc, entered the chart at No. 5.


On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, The Tourist, from Sony Pictures, remained at No. 1 for the second consecutive week. Tangled debuted at No. 2, bumping Sony Pictures’ How Do You Know to No. 3. Black Swan failed to place since it won’t be available at Netflix or Redbox, which together control about 60% of the rental business, until April 26.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...inds-top-23568





http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-040311

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-040311

Quote:


Tangled Top-selling Blu-ray of the Week
Posted April 7, 2011 01:58 PM by Jacki Sturkie

Tangled was far and away the top-selling title on Blu-ray during the week ended April 3, according to data from Nielsen VideoScan. Disney's latest animated movie sold over five times more than number 2, Black Swan. The highest BD sales percentage was for Funimation's Evangelion: 2.22 You Can (Not) Advance, which got 57% of its total disc sales from the Blu-ray edition.

Top ten
• Tangled
• Black Swan
(5) Bambi
• Mad Men: Season Four
• The Ten Commandments
(1) The Tourist
(7) Megamind
(2) Yogi Bear
(4) The Fighter
• Evangelion: 2.22 You Can (Not) Advance

Blu-ray sales percentages
Evangelion: 2.22 You Can (Not) Advance: 57%
Black Swan: 43%
Tangled: 41%
Mad Men: Season Four: 30%
Fair Game: 26%

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=6146







Code:
                        BD Title Share for Week Ending 4/03/11

BDshare DVDshare  BDshare       Title
100.00   0.01   99.99%  Bambi: Diamond Edition
93.35    6.65   93.35%  Planet Earth
71.75   28.25   71.75%  The Ten Commandments
56.82   43.18   56.82%  Evangelion: 2.22 — You Can (Not) Advance
52.99   47.01   52.99%  
48.68   51.32   48.68%  Beauty and the Beast
48.65   51.35   48.65%  Inception
43.23   56.77   43.23%  Black Swan
41.01   58.99   41.01%  Jackass 3
40.78   59.22   40.78%  Tangled
34.52   65.48   34.52%  The Fighter
34.51   65.49   34.51%  Due Date
34.50   65.50   34.50%  Faster
32.73   67.27   32.73%  Secretariat
32.24   67.76   32.24%  Hereafter
31.93   68.07   31.93%  The Walking Dead: Season One
31.12   68.88   31.12%  The Tourist
30.61   69.39   30.61%  Unstoppable
29.73   70.27   29.73%  Mad Men: Season Four
29.20   70.80   29.20%  Skyline
28.21   71.79   28.21%  Despicable Me
27.30   72.70   27.30%  Burlesque
26.00   74.00   26.00%  Fair Game
24.14   75.86   24.14%  Yogi Bear
22.84   77.16   22.84%  Megamind
16.75   83.25   16.75%  How to Train Your Dragon
                 0.00%  Barbie: A Fairy Secret

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Old 04-15-2011, 08:46 AM
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week ending 04/03/11 x 2







Code:
Index BDshare The-Num DVD Units BDest#1BD*Index BDest#2DVD*(1-BD%)      Title
100.00  40.78%   3,463,789       2,385,391    2,385,391         Tangled
 19.83  43.23%     632,488         473,081      481,721         Black Swan
  3.69  99.99%           9          88,100       *DVD est       Bambi: Diamond Edition
  2.81  29.73%     139,937          67,065       59,215         Mad Men: Season Four
  2.61  71.75%      32,213          62,193       81,813         The Ten Commandments
  2.56  31.12%     133,356          61,155       60,253         The Tourist
  2.51  22.84%     175,268          59,841       51,871         Megamind
  2.37  24.14%     169,726          56,484       54,008         Yogi Bear
  2.13  34.52%      98,718          50,822       52,041         The Fighter
  2.08  56.82%      41,912          49,535       55,150         Evangelion: 2.22 — You Can (Not) Advance
  1.73  41.01%      63,734          41,333       44,306         Jackass 3
  1.53  93.35%       2,596          36,435       *DVD est       Planet Earth: The Complete Series
  1.41  32.73%      65,119          33,546       31,683         Secretariat
  1.40  27.30%      82,785          33,484       31,084         Burlesque
  1.39  26.00%      87,287          33,166       30,664         Fair Game
  1.37  30.61%      68,929          32,651       30,409         Unstoppable
  1.29  34.50%      55,421          30,787       29,197         Faster
  1.19  48.68%      30,050          28,504       *DVD est       Beauty and the Beast: Diamond Edition
  1.08  34.51%      52,650          25,876       27,741         Due Date
  1.04  29.20%      73,086          24,890       30,148         Skyline
unknown 32.24%      56,358         unknown       26,815         Hereafter
unknown 28.21%      46,165         unknown       18,141         Despicable Me
unknown 31.93%      36,305         unknown       17,030         The Walking Dead: Season One
unknown 16.75%      69,622         unknown       14,010         How to Train Your Dragon
unknown 52.99%     unknown         unknown      unknown         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
unknown 48.65%     unknown         unknown      unknown         Inception
unknown unknown    132,974         unknown      unknown         How Do You Know
unknown unknown     76,203         unknown      unknown         Barbie: A Fairy Secret
unknown unknown     44,680         unknown      unknown         The Switch
unknown unknown     32,504         unknown      unknown         Morning Glory
unknown unknown     31,991         unknown      unknown         Love & Other Drugs
unknown unknown     21,766         unknown      unknown         127 Hours
unknown unknown     20,982         unknown      unknown         Life As We Know It
unknown unknown     19,233         unknown      unknown         The Next Three Days
unknown unknown     19,159         unknown      unknown         Weeds: Season Six





Quote:


DVD/Blu-Ray Sales: 'Tangled' begins fairy-tale run with 5.1M combined copies sold! 'Black Swan' not as dreamy
Posted by Grady Smith on Wednesday, April 13, 2011

The-Numbers has just posted its weekly DVD Sales Chart, and after only one week of release, Disney's Tangled has already become the highest-selling DVD of the year. The Rapunzel film towered over the rest of the competition, selling a combined DVD/Blu-Ray total of 5.1 million units. That's a huge number for the animated princess film, which earned a strong $199.4M in theaters, and it it serves as a good reminder that when it comes to merchandising, Disney is unbeatable. Tangled, sold 3.46 million DVDs and earned $51.9 million in sales.

Black Swan glided into second place with a rather underwhelming debut of 632,000 DVDs and $9.5M. Most $100M box office earners start substantially higher than this, but Black Swan isn't the kind of film that people want to watch over and over again—it's just too creepy! Megamind continued its strong home market run, pushing 175,000 copies and lifting its total to 2.7M units and $37.6M in revenue. Yogi Bear was fourth with 170,000 copies, and Mad Men: Season Four was close behind in fifth, moving a solid 140,000 DVDs for $3.9M sales. Mad Men only nets about 1.5M viewers per episode, which means that about 10% of its regular viewership purchased it on DVD this week. Add in the 47,000 Blu-Ray copies it sold, and that number is even higher. Yowza!

Full DVD Sales Chart and Blu-Ray Sales Estimates after the jump:




Over on Blu-Ray, Tangled continued to crush the competition, moving a magnificent 1.7M copies. That makes Tangled the fastest-selling Blu-Ray title since Inception, and the strong sales reveal the ever-increasing potential for family films in the Blu-Ray format. Black Swan landed in second with about 333,000 copies. The ballet drama was stuck in the middle of a Disney sandwich, as Bambi: Diamond Edition was third for the week, moving another 62,000 copies. Full Blu-Ray estimates below:

Code:
Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending April 3, 2011
Rank    Title   Units this Week
1       Tangled 1,680,000
2       Black Swan      333,144
3       Bambi: Diamond Edition  61,992
4       Mad Men: Season 4       47,208
5       The Ten Commandments    43,848
6       The Tourist     43,008
7       Megamind        42,168
8       Yogi Bear       39,816
9       The Fighter     35,784
10      Evangelion: 2.22 — You Can (Not) Advance  34,944
11      Jackass 3D      29,064
12      Planet Earth: The Complete Series       25,704
13      Secretariat     23,688
14      Burlesque       23,520
15      Fair Game       23,352
16      Unstoppable     23,016
17      Faster  21,672
18      Beauty and the Beast: Diamond Edition   19,992
19      Due Date        18,144
20      Skyline 17,472
Labels: Bambi: Diamond Edition, Black Swan, Blu-Ray Sales, Blu-Ray Sales Chart, DVD Sales, DVD Sales Chart, Evangelion: 2.22, Fair Game, Megamind, Tangled, Yogi Bear


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Old 04-15-2011, 08:47 AM
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Week ending 04/10/11






68% Tron: Legacy Blu-ray unit marketshare

33% Tangled Blu-ray unit marketshare


Quote:


‘Tron’ Commands the Charts

13 Apr, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Tron: Legacy

In a three-way race between newly released theatrical sequels, it was Tron: Legacy by a mile.

The adrenaline-charged sci-fi actioner from Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment debuted at No. 1 on all three home video charts its first week in stores, riding off a domestic box office gross of $172 million and a worldwide theatrical take of more than $390 million — as well as a ‘PG’ rating.

The week’s two other blockbuster theatrical releases, Universal Studios’ Little Fockers ($148.4 million domestic gross), installment No. 3 in the comedy franchise, and 20th Century Fox’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($104.4 million), also a three-quel, just couldn’t compete.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, Fockers finished a distant third, outdone by sophomore Tangled, from Walt Disney Studios, at No. 2. Nielsen data indicates Tron: Legacy outsold ‘PG-13’-rated Fockers by a 2-to-1 margin, although Nielsen numbers don’t include Walmart or Sam’s Club. Dawn Treader (‘PG’) followed close behind at No. 4.

Tron: Legacy and Tangled finished in the first two spots on Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart, as well, generating a respective 68% and 33% of their unit sales from the format during the week ended April 10.


Dawn Treader, which debuted on a Friday instead of the usual Tuesday and thus had three fewer days to make an impact on the charts, bowed at No. 3, while Little Fockers entered the chart at No. 5. Dawn Treader generated 44% of its first-week unit sales from Blu-ray, while for Little Fockers just 24% of units sold were in high-definition.

On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, Fockers debuted at No. 19 because Universal holds back its new releases from Netflix and Redbox for 28 days. Following Tron: Legacy at No. 1 was the previous week’s top rental, The Tourist, from Sony Pictures, which slipped to No. 2 after two weeks on top.

On the sales front, Tron-mania was so strong that a re-release of the original 1982 film popped up at No. 5 on First Alert and No. 4 on the Blu-ray Disc sales chart — while a combo pack with both films bowed at No. 9 on First Alert and No. 6 on the Blu-ray Disc chart.


Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/10/11

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/10/11

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/10/11

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...s-charts-23655



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-041011



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-041011






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Old 04-15-2011, 09:23 AM
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The last two weeks have had remarkable Blu-ray unit marketshare of the bestselling titles, especially considering that these are probably going to be relatively high volume weeks.


Top 20 Sellers Blu-ray unit marketshare:

39.14% for week ending 04/03/10
43.36% for week ending 04/10/10









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Old 04-15-2011, 06:02 PM
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3D Notes
3D Blu-ray Disc Sales To Soar: 5.7 Million?
By David Lieberman, Deadline.com - April 15th, 2011

There's still not a lot of 3D programming on cable or broadcast to satisfy those first buyers of 3D televisions. But IHS Screen Digest says today that the technology is about to find a real foothold among fans of Blu-ray discs.

Some 3.2 million homes this year will have the equipment needed to watch Blu-ray discs in 3D. That a 305% increase over last year. The 3D discs can be played on Sony's PlayStation 3 consoles as well as 3D-enabled Blu-ray players. Hollywood, of course, sees a cash opportunity. Studios will release about 65 titles on 3D Blu-ray this year, IHS says. That total will include 15 from Disney such as Tron, Beauty And The Beast, and The Lion King. As a result, the research firm predicts that US consumers will spend $160.8 million this year on discs that provide 3D images to 3D-enabled TV sets. IHS figures that consumers will buy 5.7 million 3D discs at an average of $28.33 a pop.

That contrasts with $28.4 million last year based on 900,000 discs selling for $31.09 apiece. The big reason for the increase is that 3D is catching on with early adopters. IHS adds that 3D discs are catching on in the UK, Germany, and France.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/04/3d-b...tudio-support/
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Old 04-16-2011, 10:40 AM
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We still do not have revenue data for the week ending 04/02/11 (Tangled) yet.

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Old 04-18-2011, 02:08 PM
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NPD: DVD, Blu-ray Dominate Home Movie Consumption

Quote:


The Port Washington, N.Y.-based research firm said nearly 80 cents of every dollar spent on home video movies goes toward the purchase or rental of physical discs, according to data compiled from written surveys of nearly 10,000 respondents in March.

We expect strong growth from many digital sectors, driven by connected devices, improving selection and the consumer's endless quest for convenience, Crupnick said. For now, though, physical discs continue to lead overall engagement and spending by home video viewers; and even with increasing use of VOD and other digital formats, the primacy of DVD and Blu-ray in home video will continue for the foreseeable future.

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Old 04-19-2011, 10:05 AM
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The Tangled week was a fitting end to a horrific quarter for optical disc media. There are a lot of issues here:
1. So how many people used coupons on the Tangled Blu-ray? Considering the unit sales that have been reported, it doesn't make any sense that the revenue total was only 48 million dollars, unless a huge number of coupons were used, bringing the average price of the Tangled release well under $20.
2. The 25% number that week for Blu-ray. Years ago I wrote that Blu-ray would approach 25-35% of DVD and peak. What I did not allow for was that DVD would drop as quickly as it has, a drop that appears to be accelerating. So Blu-ray should be rising in percentage, as people drop DVD buying in huge numbers. But when you look at the number of Blu-ray players sold in just the last year, combined with the DVD drop, you arrive at an expected rise for Blu-ray that should be a lot higher than the low 20s percentage gain for the first quarter.
3. Is Blu-ray close to peaking? It's not like anyone who doesn't already own a Blu-ray player is suddenly going to start buying a lot of movies when they get the player. These are the type of people who might buy a couple movies during the year, with nearly all of their movie watching coming from rentals. Just look at the prominent catalog releases. The Star Wars movies are going to be released later this year, along with a second release of the LOTR movies. The Indiana Jones movies are almost a certainty for 2012. By the end of 2012, there won't be very many top tier catalog releases that will be unavailable on Blu-ray. Studios are going to start pushing downloading sometime. And I don't expect the studios to kill off DVD the same way they killed off VHS, unless they're prepared to drop Blu-ray prices even more. At the current rate, it really appears that the best case might be for Blu-ray to peak in 2013, with a very good possibility of that peak coming as early as 2012.
4. The alarming drop for optical disc again brings to mind that expanded 30 day window for rental that we keep reading is working. If it really is working, then that means that optical disc sales numbers would be even worse than they are now.
5. What role do the actual movies play in all of this? Well, I predicted last fall that the weak lineup of movies in the summer of 2010 would lead to a similarly weak 4th quarter. It turned out that, at least for Blu-ray, the numbers were alright. But as soon as the Christmas buying season was over, sales took a turn for the worse. Maybe the video releases in the first quarter were better in 2010. But remember this-the biggest movie in the holiday 2009 season was Avatar. And it wasn't released on video until the second quarter of 2010. So those comparison weeks haven't even arrived yet. BUT THERE IS HOPE. The always Blu-ray friendly comic book adaptions are plentiful this year. We might see a big sales boost in the fourth quarter from these releases.
6. What about the economy? Well, I believe it's too late for a boost in the economy to make a difference. People's buying habits have already changed. They are used to lower prices. They are used to renting instead of buying. Is downloading the answer? I don't know. But I do know that optical disc is not about to make a comeback. The studios need to concern themselves with keeping the optical disc drops to a minimum while finding another source of revenue.
7. The catalog releases during 2011 have really picked up. I don't know if it will keep up, but we can hope. However, the problem is that we are also seeing a rise in subpar, low quality Blu-ray releases. Releases without lossless sound, or even sound that is any better than DVD. Releases not in their original theatrical aspect ratio. Releases from decade old masters that look little if any better than the typical 1080i cable channel showing. Some of these releases even look worse than DVD! Buyer beware, especially if the price is too good to be true.
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Old 04-19-2011, 01:25 PM
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First thing to notice is releases do matter and the Q1 2011 releases were rather poor relatively speaking in box office performance. Also the studios last year pushed a lot of $25M+ box office performing titles into the 1Q 2010 period to avoid being around Avatar whose release date was uncertain.

Tangled wee was done in the YTY comparison going against Sherlock Holmes and Alvin 2 but still the week was $192 M in combined DVD+BD revenues, which is an above average 1Q or 2Q week. So its not like it was 25% of a low revenue week there.

The general trending of revenue marketshare and Top 20 Sellers unit marketshare (new release marketshare) has been rising consistently for years so its not like all of it is due to DVD attrition. Blu-ray still almost did $50 million for Tangled's release week.

Looking at the data its also clear the sharp drop in 1Q 2011 DVD revenues is concentrated in the new release performance and thats a strong indicator that the releases were the variable that caused the drop in performance compared to 1Q 2010.

Last year the 1Q was the strongest and 2Q (besides Avatar) and 3Q were lame , its possible that that may be different this year.

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Old 04-19-2011, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo from HDD View Post

So basically dvd catalog is stable and the new releases have been collapsing? Is this correct Kosty?

Two things.

For some reason, the studios last year pushed some titles into the 1Q 2010 period that were viable $25 M+ titles that would be expected to do significant DVD and Blu-ray sales into 1Q 2010 instead of their normal arrival times in the 2Q 2010 period. I'm told part of that was the uncertainty to when Avatar was going to be released and the studios pushed some of those titles earlier in the year to avoid being around Avatar. If you remember last year Avatar kept on having a sustained theatrical run and came to home video with only a short warning period. The result was that more good titles went into 1Q 2010 and for 2Q 2010 and 3Q 2010 , besides Avatar the releases were pretty lame until Sep 2010.

This year, Avatar is not a factor and for some reason as well the studios seem to have delayed the release or its just a coincidence that more viable $25M+ BO titles were not placed in 1Q 2011 and are now scheduled for 2Q 2011 instead. So there is a offset in comparing the box office power and number of significant titles between the years.

There also is a factor that the Q1 releases in 2011 just seem to be not as powerful as last years releases with a lack of a Twilight type blockbuster. That hurts the DVD revenues especially hard.

I've got some numbers to crunch , but it clearly looks like there was not a collapse in DVD catalog sales revenues or anything with Blu-ray, its the new release numbers for DVD sales that have fallen the most.

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