BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 35 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1021 of 11556 Old 02-24-2007, 08:54 PM
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I think the latest impressive stat is in stock movies for each format.

HD DVD (since the dvd wars site has been tracking) have hovered around 14000-15000 copies.

Blu ray has increased from 7000 to 22000 copies in stock.

Amazon is looking at current sales trends. They obviously feel that they should stock more Blu Ray discs.
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post #1022 of 11556 Old 02-24-2007, 09:57 PM
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If the goal is to try to draw correlation between rankings and unit sales by averaging rankings, I don't think that works. Not only are the lower rankings (>700) likely to be very very few units, the right method is to recognize that the higher rankings < 100 should have exponentially larger unit sales than the ones > 500. A #20 and a #980 combined can have multiple more units sold than a #499&#501, but both sets have average rankings of 500.

The straight averaging of rankings is meaningless, and since actual distribution is not known, a geometric or harmonic mean approach has no basis either. This is just entertainment only.
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post #1023 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 12:03 AM
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I thought the average gamer age was 33...
"Children's toy..?!?!?"
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post #1024 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 12:32 AM
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My neighborhood Sears finally started selling highdef movies this week. They had 8 Blu-ray discs and 1 HD DVD disc. That's right just 9 movies total. Maybe they keep extra copies in the back? At least they had some HD movies. They've been selling Blu-ray players since last year. The discs were in a locked unlit cabinet next to the videogames and were wrapped with anti-theft tags.
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post #1025 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 01:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phansson View Post

I think the latest impressive stat is in stock movies for each format.

HD DVD (since the dvd wars site has been tracking) have hovered around 14000-15000 copies.

Blu ray has increased from 7000 to 22000 copies in stock.

Amazon is looking at current sales trends. They obviously feel that they should stock more Blu Ray discs.

Or that more Blu-ray titles are being released currently and that's a total of their initial stockage level for each title. That is what one would expect them to do just because of the newly released title disparity.

That would correspond to the recent change in sales ratio. No surprises. That is what you would expect them to do.

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post #1026 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 04:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Just to clarify this but I think camaj meant to say that the average Amazon ranking for the top 25 Blu-ray titles was lower than average Amazon ranking for the top 10 HD DVD titles. That happened for a few hours last night and I think it has actually happened a few times before for brief amounts of time.

Yes, I think that is a more accurate way of putting it, assuming that the numbers charted on the sales rank charts represent average sales rank for the top 10 or top 25.
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post #1027 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 06:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Mack View Post

I thought the average gamer age was 33...
"Children's toy..?!?!?"

Well, I'm 39, and I do play games on my PS3....I know several other 30+ friends doing this.

I think it's the generation above me who thinks this - they never grew up playing video games
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post #1028 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 06:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResOGlas View Post

This is what happens when a new format is introduced on a children's toy, children migrate to the AVS forum during this introductory period. It happened to the HD DVD sections when the Xbox drive was released, and it's happening to the Blu-Ray section after all those spoiled rich kids got their PS3 with no good games on Christmas.

You're >40 years old aren't you? Children's toy indeed!
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post #1029 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 07:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Mack View Post

I thought the average gamer age was 33...
"Children's toy..?!?!?"

I love how people want to continue using the age of gamers in order to substantiate their opinions. As you have correctly posted....the average gamer is no longer in their teens but in the upper 20's to late 30's. We are the original group who started it all with pong and with the Atari 2600, Intellivision, etc etc..... If cadbury even knew what he was talking about, he may be worth listening too.

BTW....I am 39 and going strong with my PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii.
My PS3 was purchased primarily for Blu-ray out of the gate. Then games of course.

Of course, I still have my Dreamcast, Xbox and PS2.

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post #1030 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 07:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Or that more Blu-ray titles are being released currently and that's a total of their initial stockage level for each title. That is what one would expect them to do just because of the newly released title disparity.

That would correspond to the recent change in sales ratio. No surprises. That is what you would expect them to do.

.

Kosty, I agree with you but the total number of releases (at the moment) is still pretty close.

I just thought it was a good sign.
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post #1031 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 07:53 AM
 
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I don't know how any of you of the BD camp can consider this any kind of a victory.

This is a "black eye" for BD . . .plain and simple . . . let me explain . . .

That article clearly states that the number of discs being purchased by either side is equal . . .

Yet according to numerous articles BD has a 5 to 1 advantage over HD DVD in population of players.

It is evident that the attachment rate is 5X higher with HD DVD than it is with BD.

Here are some statements that bear witness to these two issues; population of players and # of movies purchased.

1. Anyone who buys HD DVD has an HDTV set

2. Anyone who buys a PS3 has the ability to play a BD movie

And the stats prove these two statements because:

1. HD DVD players only work with an HDTV set . . .NO HDTV . . .No HD movie

2. PS3 works fine with NTSC

So the stats prove that HD DVD owners are buying HD movies while most BD player owners are playing games . . . and buying a few HD movies.
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post #1032 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:06 AM
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Another way to look at it: Since inception number includes a period when HD DVD was leading by 3:1 margins. In less than 3 months, BD has overtaken the lead that took HD DVD almost 9 months to build.

The 2.x:1 sales monthly and weekly sales leads is probably what brings cheer to some, the Since Inception overtaking was only a matter of when, and marks a another milestone. The monthly sales leads should increase if we look at the release schedule between now and summer as people tend to buy good movies (especially new movies - they attract more buyers).

BD can outsell HDDVD 4:1 on a monthly basis for months before it does it for SI, since months of selling does take a while to factor out, by the time you see a 3:1 since inception sales lead, monthly lead would have to be 4:1 or 5:1.
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post #1033 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:19 AM
 
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A case can be made that the PS3 is being bought more for movies than games and by HT fans rather than pure gamers. I believe gamers are buying the Wii and xbox 360 and hence the slower sales of the xbox HD drive....and PS3 games.

The PS3 is a BD player than can be used to play a few games in HD. The xbox is a game console on which you can buy an add on drive to watch a few HD movies....

It appears, Sony's game console strategy is built around the PS2 and the PSP and their Home video strategy is built around the PS3. For the next 12 months....


Looks like a strategic shift for Sony....
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post #1034 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:24 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

Another way to look at it: Since inception number includes a period when HD DVD was leading by 3:1 margins. In less than 3 months, BD has overtaken the lead that took HD DVD almost 9 months to build.

The 2.x:1 sales monthly and weekly sales leads is probably what brings cheer to some, the Since Inception overtaking was only a matter of when, and marks a another milestone. The monthly sales leads should increase if we look at the release schedule between now and summer as people tend to buy good movies (especially new movies - they attract more buyers).

BD can outsell HDDVD 4:1 on a monthly basis for months before it does it for SI, since months of selling does take a while to factor out, by the time you see a 3:1 since inception sales lead, monthly lead would have to be 4:1 or 5:1.

You are forgetting that the G2 Toshibas only came out in the end of Dec. Also, until Sept, very few movies were available on HD DVD and there were according to Toshiba only around 30K players. So, the first 6 months of either format saw very little in terms of hardware and software sales...

HD DVD domination was from Oct - mid Dec and the BD domination has been from Mid Dec until now....

To pretend that BD is selling hundreds of thousands of disks every week to over take the months head start of HD DVD is another form of pure spin. Both formats had very limited launches until Q4 of 2006.

The main problem with BD was that the Samsung player was considered too expensive for what it offered and the BD initial titles were lackluster. Toshiba shipped 2-4 units per store and that too we had no supply of hardware for months.....there was a period when there were no G1 Tosh players in B&M and the G2 were delayed by a month or so.
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post #1035 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:27 AM
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Topics merged. Please keep all sales-related posts to this thread.

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post #1036 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:37 AM
 
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"A case can be made that the PS3 is being bought more for movies than games "

I would like to see you make that case!

You can't have it both ways . . .

BD sells more players but HD DVD sells more movies. Forget about what happened 9 months ago. In December 2006 Sony sold over 600,000 PS3's. In a recent article it puts the population of PS3's at just under 1 million.

Anyone who buys a PS3 is either interested in gaming, HD movies or both. Anyone who buys an HD DVD player is strictly interetsed in both Upconverting SD DVD's" and renting/buying HD movies.

The PS3 is a dual use machine . . . it is a game console . . .it is a BD player.

HD DVD players only play movies

You can spin the stats anyway you want . . .it still works out the same.
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post #1037 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 08:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

The PS3 is a BD player than can be used to play a few games in HD. The xbox is a game console on which you can buy an add on drive to watch a few HD movies....

Interesting theory. However, if this were the case:

1) Why wouldn't Sony be marketing it as such, and into the more standard HT channels?

2) Why would Sony have even bothered to release a standalone player? If they really believed in this strategy, the standalone player is a complete waste of time and money for them.

3) Why would they still be marketing it under the name 'PlayStation'?

If this was what Sony really intended to do, I have to think that they would have gone the opposite direction - they would have integrated gaming capabilities into a product sold as a BluRay player.
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post #1038 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 09:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

I don't know how any of you of the BD camp can consider this any kind of a victory.

This is a "black eye" for BD . . .plain and simple . . . let me explain . . .

That article clearly states that the number of discs being purchased by either side is equal . . .

This is spin. The words 'being purchased' are misleading - incorrect tense.

A more correct statement would be:

Since inception both Blu-ray and HD DVD have sold virtually identical quantities of discs. Blu-ray has narrowly sold more.

In 2007 Blu-ray IS CURRENTLY outselling HD DVD by a factor of 2:1 according to Nielson Videoscan. Blu-ray has consistently outsold HD DVD since the beginning of the 2007.

Clearly a 'black eye' for Blu-ray!
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post #1039 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 09:04 AM
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Something tells me that the studios aren't all in a dither about "attachment rates". They just want to sell movies. They look at the number of movies they and other studios are selling, and the profit that they are making. That tells them where the market is more meaningfully than anything else.
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post #1040 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 12:22 PM
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Well, I'm 39 and I LOVE my PS3 "Children's toy" to death.
So does my fiancee. If I turn on Cash Guns chaos, Sudoku or pop in the PS2 Tetris it's like ringing the dinner bell. Everyone who has been here for a movie nite and then can instantly try out a game seems really impressed. Most of them are NOT children either...


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post #1041 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore View Post

Something tells me that the studios aren't all in a dither about "attachment rates". They just want to sell movies. They look at the number of movies they and other studios are selling, and the profit that they are making. That tells them where the market is more meaningfully than anything else.

Well, they DO care about attchment rates, so that they have an idea of how many copies they will sell for any subsequent movie.

A number that has not been released, and probably won't be, is net sales of the two formats for all of the movies that have been released on BOTH formats -i.e., leave out the exclusives. This is the only way to tell which format will attract the studios, because it's the only data that can actually predict sale for future releases.
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post #1042 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 03:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

I don't know how any of you of the BD camp can consider this any kind of a victory.

Victory? Not quite yet. Still Videoscan is reporting that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2:1 and that the total number of Blu-ray discs has surpassed the total number of HD DVD discs. Objectively speaking that is pretty good news for Blu-ray.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

This is a "black eye" for BD . . .plain and simple . . . let me explain . . .

That article clearly states that the number of discs being purchased by either side is equal . . .

No, actually what it said was that the total number of discs for each side is near equal with Blu-ray slightly ahead. That is pretty good considering that Blu-ray was released several months after HD DVD and that initial HD DVD players, which were most likely subsidized, were sold at half the price of Blu-ray players.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Yet according to numerous articles BD has a 5 to 1 advantage over HD DVD in population of players.

It is evident that the attachment rate is 5X higher with HD DVD than it is with BD.

Which completely and utterly ignores the fact that not everyone who buys a PS3 also buys Blu-ray discs. I think the studios care most about the number of discs sold and Blu-ray has been leading in that area for over a month.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

BD sells more players but HD DVD sells more movies
....
You can spin the stats anyway you want . . .it still works out the same.

No offense but you might want to read the first post in this thread before you accuse others of spinning. It is two weeks older than this article but it gives the year to date sales for the two HD formats. The year to date being from January 1st of 2007 to the date shown on the graph.
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post #1043 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 03:46 PM
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Looks like Lee Stewart hasn't been a member here long enough to remember "11:1"
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post #1044 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Well, they DO care about attchment rates, so that they have an idea of how many copies they will sell for any subsequent movie.

Do you know what the current attach rate is for HD DVD owners? Do you know what the current attach rate for PS3 owners is for those who buy Blu-ray movies? No offense but it seems to me like it would be useful to know what the attach rates are for the two HD formats before making theories about it.
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post #1045 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 04:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

You are forgetting that the G2 Toshibas only came out in the end of Dec. Also, until Sept, very few movies were available on HD DVD and there were according to Toshiba only around 30K players. So, the first 6 months of either format saw very little in terms of hardware and software sales...

HD DVD domination was from Oct - mid Dec and the BD domination has been from Mid Dec until now....

To pretend that BD is selling hundreds of thousands of disks every week to over take the months head start of HD DVD is another form of pure spin. Both formats had very limited launches until Q4 of 2006.

The main problem with BD was that the Samsung player was considered too expensive for what it offered and the BD initial titles were lackluster. Toshiba shipped 2-4 units per store and that too we had no supply of hardware for months.....there was a period when there were no G1 Tosh players in B&M and the G2 were delayed by a month or so.

I believe HD DVD titles were selling since April '06. That is a 9 month selling window to December when the real BD sales essentially started.

In July, HD DVD title sales were supposedly as high as 11:1 (which I always suspected to be inflated), but at least 3:1 is certainly plausible considering samsung was the only player, it was expensive, and it had a noise filter setting that was too high.

As late as November, there were observations of HD DVD titles holding overwhelming leads (turns out to be the battle of the 3 ft pygmy vs 1 ft dwarf - since the units were so low in 2006).

There is also consensus that until before xmas, hd dvd was firmly in the lead, and the december videoscan numbers for 2006 confirmed this.

This is why BD's sales was so dramatic, it sold < 3:1, yet erased HDDVD's lead in < 3 months, a lead that took 9 months to build up.

---

HD-A2s started selling in late December, at about the same time that BD's lead started to build. Without HD A2s, BD's monthly title units would likely be > 3:1.
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post #1046 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 06:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post


This is why BD's sales was so dramatic, it sold < 3:1, yet erased HDDVD's lead in < 3 months, a lead that took 9 months to build up.

I'm all for great sales but its dramatic only because HD-DVD hasn't had much new content over the last two months. If HD-DVD was rolling out a bunch of new content every week these numbers would have been much more close and I think it's pretty amazing that HD-DVD has kept up as well as it has with hardly any new content to speak of. It will be interesting to see the numbers in the coming months when HD-DVD gets some more content out. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they do get with the program and get more content out. If not my split support will come to an abrupt halt.

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post #1047 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by lilstinky View Post

I'm all for great sales but its dramatic only because HD-DVD hasn't had much new content over the last two months. If HD-DVD was rolling out a bunch of new content every week these numbers would have been much more close and I think it's pretty amazing that HD-DVD has kept up as well as it has with hardly any new content to speak of. It will be interesting to see the numbers in the coming months when HD-DVD gets some more content out. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they do get with the program and get more content out. If not my split support will come to an abrupt halt.

I agree. The lack of HD DVD titles is the reason for this.

As for why there is a lack of HD DVD titles, one only needs to look at what the universal titles are in imdb.com, and you'd realize that a lot, and I really mean A LOT of Universal titles in this century and late 90s were already released.

My point is that anyone going through that list can find a few gems, and this sublist of gems will differ for everyone but, even after taking out the Spielberg ones, there's still some, but that is a very small list for most of us. That's my theory.

This shortage of titles is the result of having so many major studios not making movies in that format. It's that simple.
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post #1048 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 06:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Do you know what the current attach rate is for HD DVD owners? Do you know what the current attach rate for PS3 owners is for those who buy Blu-ray movies? No offense but it seems to me like it would be useful to know what the attach rates are for the two HD formats before making theories about it.

One doesn't need need to have specific data points to know how that type of data is used by product managers. Knowing the specific attach rates doesn't validate or invalidate the fact that this information is useful for predicting disc sales for both formats, thus understanding where the two really stand.

I'll stand by the rest of my statement:

Quote:
A number that has not been released, and probably won't be, is net sales of the two formats for all of the movies that have been released on BOTH formats -i.e., leave out the exclusives. This is the only way to tell which format will attract the studios, because it's the only data that can actually predict sale for future releases.

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post #1049 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 07:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post


This shortage of titles is the result of having so many major studios not making movies in that format. It's that simple.


I wouldn't say that. I have a bunch of Universal movies that I want and many have not been released. The shortage of titles wouldn't be happening if Universal hadn't almost come to a dead stop with releases. I see that they are announcing titles again and Weinstein is announcing a bunch also. I agree they don't have much as far as new stuff is concerned but I'm really interested in their catalog stuff.

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post #1050 of 11556 Old 02-25-2007, 07:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Well, they DO care about attchment rates, so that they have an idea of how many copies they will sell for any subsequent movie.

A number that has not been released, and probably won't be, is net sales of the two formats for all of the movies that have been released on BOTH formats -i.e., leave out the exclusives. This is the only way to tell which format will attract the studios, because it's the only data that can actually predict sale for future releases.

I don't agree that giving the paramount and Warner Bros. numbers would give as clear a picture as you claim. These studios have very little competition on the HD-DVD front and HD-DVD exclusive consumers are more likely to pick a nuetral studio when shopping as they cannot buy from Blu-ray exclusive studios.

Blu-ray exclusive consumers have to pick between the nuetral studios and the many more choices provided by Fox, Sony and Disney.

If Warner and Paramount were selling more Blu-ray than HD-DVD in spite of the increased competition on the Blu-ray side, that would be a feather in the cap of the Blu-ray camp.

I would bet that the sales of these nuetral studios mirror the overal trend, I would bet they sold more HD-DVD until Dec then started selling more Blu-ray. Now the Blu-ray sales would continue to improve as HD-DVD sales stall. There is no good reason to think otherwise.
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