BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 37 - AVS Forum
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post #1081 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 07:11 AM
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Being Blu-Ray enthusiast is fine, but try not to tease HD-DVD fanboys unnecessarily, afterall many of them are already in neutral territory.
It's been a lot better recently in this forum compared to a month or so ago. So, let's keep things nice. Yes, we are all glad Blu-Ray is charging ahead, etc. And that is exactly why we do not need to track Amazon or Google sales stats, etc. Leave this to the few remaining fan boys from the other side.

In Blu-Ray Veritas!
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post #1082 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 07:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave-Blu-Ray View Post

See the chart:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%28Bl...o=US&date=2006


What is hilarious is that it doesn't say what the heck it is. I see lines and that is all, BD has a higher line then HD DVD in "nothing"? Could be clearer, I assume this is how many times someone did a search?
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post #1083 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 08:17 AM
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Latest DVDempire figures are out, based on past posts I believe the number shown for the week of the 27th is only for one day of sales.
http://dvdempire.com/Content/Feature...ars.asp?view=1
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post #1084 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave-Blu-Ray View Post

And how many DVD only links deal with HD DVD ? Its fair.

You do realize that you (rightfully so) haven't specified the search term "DVD" in that link?
Jeez, what a stupid thread.
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post #1085 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 08:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TauRus View Post

Being Blu-Ray enthusiast is fine, but try not to tease HD-DVD fanboys unnecessarily, afterall many of them are already in neutral territory.
It's been a lot better recently in this forum compared to a month or so ago. So, let's keep things nice. Yes, we are all glad Blu-Ray is charging ahead, etc. And that is exactly why we do not need to track Amazon or Google sales stats, etc. Leave this to the few remaining fan boys from the other side.


I disagree with you, one of the reasons I come to this forum is to see how well BD is doing. I realize that there are Hd-dvd users on this forum but their skin is way too thin. It is bad when we can't be enthusiastic about our format pulling away and taking the lead. I love it when people post Amazon ratings and sales and how it compares to Hd-dvd. It helps solidify me with my choice and motivates me to throw even more money towards titles. If roles were reversed I would not be crying on Hd-dvd forums every time someone posted a pro Hd-dvd thread.

Thank you Warner Brothers and New Line!!!
And continued thanks to the original backers of BD, Sony - Disney - Fox - Lionsgate
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post #1086 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 09:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HorrorScope View Post

Could be clearer, I assume this is how many times someone did a search?

Exactly

Blu-ray is the way!
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post #1087 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 09:41 AM
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LMAO. Google string searches is not an accurate litmus of consumer preference or support. $'s are what talk, although even sales figures from independent sources don't mean all that much right now. The vast majority of consumers purchasing Blu-ray and HD-DVD right now are in the "enthusiast" segment, which is a far cry from the much larger purchasing pool of the AJ.
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post #1088 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 09:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_TC View Post

You do realize that you (rightfully so) haven't specified the search term "DVD" in that link?
Jeez, what a stupid thread.

Find it yourself.

Stupid thread? Why are you posting inside then? Just skip. You dont need to waste your time writing in stupid threads...

Blu-ray is the way!
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post #1089 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 11:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave-Blu-Ray View Post

Find it yourself.

(Blu-ray) | (Blu ray) | (Bluray) | (Blue-ray) | (Blueray) | (Blue ray) | (BD) | (BD-R), (HD DVD) | (HD-DVD) | (HDDVD) | (High Definition DVD) | (AOD)

Are these your search terms or are these your search terms?
If you put something in parentheses on Google Trends it finds only results with the combination of these words. "DVD" only won't be part of the results.

Therefore, the inclusion of "BD" skews the results. It is not an acronym used by anybody except for a few people on home theater forums. A google search for "BD" clearly shows this.
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post #1090 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kojima16 View Post

Sorry but I'm gonna call BS on this one. Maybe you think like that (still bet you managed to "sneak" a trip to the store for Departed), but this is certainly not the majority of people. Most people would be buying up anything with such a drought.

I've been buying mostly Blu-Ray lately except for The Departed because I couldn't pass up on the Best Buy screw up on the HD-DVD price. I would think that most both camp supporters would be buying mostly Blu-Ray lately simply because nothing new has been coming on HD-DVD.

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post #1091 of 11556 Old 02-28-2007, 08:20 PM
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Personally I don't see how one can really do a fair comparison of google searches for the two HD formats. After all when someone enters "HD DVD" or "HD-DVD" they might not actually be looking for the Toshiba made HD format. They could just be looking for an upscaling DVD player.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Knowing the specific attach rates doesn't validate or invalidate the fact that this information is useful for predicting disc sales for both formats, thus understanding where the two really stand.

Wouldn't you have to first prove that attach rates affect long term disc sales?


Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

A number that has not been released, and probably won't be, is net sales of the two formats for all of the movies that have been released on BOTH formats -i.e., leave out the exclusives. This is the only way to tell which format will attract the studios, because it's the only data that can actually predict sale for future releases.

That doesn't make sense. After all Blu-ray is most likely going to get more movies as the months pass by and because of that there will be a greater number of Blu-ray movies for consumers to choose from. As such to compare only the HD movies released on both formats would give a skewed picture of how well they are really doing. In my opinion the only fair way to compare the two HD formats is to look at total movie sales.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TauRus View Post

Yes, we are all glad Blu-Ray is charging ahead, etc. And that is exactly why we do not need to track Amazon or Google sales stats, etc. Leave this to the few remaining fan boys from the other side.

Why not talk about Amazon sales ranks in a thread that is about Blu-ray sales figures?
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post #1092 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 06:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Quote:


Knowing the specific attach rates doesn't validate or invalidate the fact that this information is useful for predicting disc sales for both formats, thus understanding where the two really stand.

Wouldn't you have to first prove that attach rates affect long term disc sales?

I don't think this needs to be proven at all. That's rather like saying you have to prove that new car registration rates can be shown to be related to auto insurance policy sales numbers - it's pretty obvious on its face that there is a direct relationship.

In effect, that attachment rate tells you how large the current available market for the media is. Now, I agree that it doesn't tell you what the potential market is, but new-release media sales are heavily impacted by the available market at the time of release; sales spike on release, then fall down to a slow steady level (or die completely for some titles).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Quote:


A number that has not been released, and probably won't be, is net sales of the two formats for all of the movies that have been released on BOTH formats -i.e., leave out the exclusives. This is the only way to tell which format will attract the studios, because it's the only data that can actually predict sale for future releases.

That doesn't make sense. After all Blu-ray is most likely going to get more movies as the months pass by and because of that there will be a greater number of Blu-ray movies for consumers to choose from. As such to compare only the HD movies released on both formats would give a skewed picture of how well they are really doing. In my opinion the only fair way to compare the two HD formats is to look at total movie sales.

Right now, the total number of movies available is so close that this should not be a significant factor.

If you're a studio exec getting ready to decide how release a movie, why do you care about total sales of a format? How many copies you will sell of THAT RELEASE is what drives profits.

My point is that we don't have any specific sales information that really tells us enough to know how it would drive the studios' behavior. Overall the numbers are close enough (and small enough WRT the overall media market) that generalizations just don't mean much. I would expect that later this year, things will become clearer, but right now.....?
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post #1093 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 08:46 AM
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Below is the Top 10 Blu-ray and HD DVD releases as of 03/01/2007. Please note that all 10 of the Blu-ray disc are ranked 500 or below. Only 3 HD DVD releases make it into the 500 or below list.

Top 10 Blu-ray Disc

The Departed [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 35

Casino Royale [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 40

The Prestige [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 78

Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You in Time [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 147

Babel [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 189

Stranger Than Fiction [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 227

Night at the Museum [Blu-Ray]
Sales rank: 238

Rocky Balboa [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 357

Happy Feet [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 362

Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 370



Top 10 HD DVD

Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You in Time [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 54

The Departed (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 66

Happy Feet (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 318

Batman Begins [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 621

Bullitt [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 1830

The World's Fastest Indian [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 1904

King Kong (HD-DVD)
Sales rank: 2047

Apollo 13 [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 2374

The Getaway (1972)
Sales rank: 2694

Goodfellas [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 2701
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post #1094 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Below is the Top 10 Blu-ray and HD DVD releases as of 03/01/2007. Please note that all 10 of the Blu-ray disc are ranked 500 or below. Only 3 HD DVD releases make it into the 500 or below list.

Top 10 Blu-ray Disc

#1 - The Departed [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 35

#4 - Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You in Time [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 147

#9 - Happy Feet [Blu-ray]
Sales rank: 362



Top 10 HD DVD

#1 - Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You in Time [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 54

#2 - The Departed (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 66

#3 - Happy Feet (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]
Sales rank: 318

It's interesting to look at same-title comparisons (see edit above). It's also interesting to not that most of the lower-ranked HD DVD titles (even in the top 10) have been out for quite a while.

My personal opinion: If both formats had an equal release schedule, they quold be relatively equal in sales ranks - these sales ranks seem to bear this out. However, this is not the case, is it? Given that BD has more new titles, they are currently selling more discs.

It looks, though, as if the actual number of people buying discs right now is about the same on both sides (assuming there's no effective difference in the number of people interested in, say, Happy Feet).

That said, if we reach a point where there ore 2x or 3x as many available titles on BD, it will be very tough for HD DVD to overcome, even with lower-cost hardware.
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post #1095 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

If both formats had an equal release schedule, they quold be relatively equal in sales ranks - these sales ranks seem to bear this out.

The BD version of The Departed has a sales rank almost twice as good as that of HD DVD. It (BD version) does so with many more top selling competitors. Remember, many HD DVD folks kept saying Wait till The Departed gets released and that will show who is buying more disc. Well The Departed has been doing much better on BD and doing so with a lot of top selling competing titles. It should be obvious to anyone that BD is selling much better than HD DVD. The previous post that I just made bears that out!!!

Many of us has said Content is King. Always has been, most likely to continue. Just look at The Fifth Element, it remains a top seller despite its flaws and bad press (# 4 - THE FIFTH ELEMENT (SONY, $28.95) TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 2/18/2007, Source: Rentrak's Retail Essentials). Another example, Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest, it has a rank of 370. That title is almost 3 months from release.
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post #1096 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

The BD version of The Departed has a sales rank almost twice as good as that of HD DVD.

Yes, that is true right now (or whenever you took this snapshot). Immediately after release, the HD DVD version was ranked much higher than the BD version. It is also true that the NIN HD DVD release has ranking almost three times as good as the BD version. A reasonable person would assume that this means total sales are closer than this particular rank would indicate. TOTAL numbers are all that really matter; the ranks are just a single data point, at a single time. Given that we don't have anything better, they are useful, but you have to look at more than just a single moment in time.

If your statement were true, than you could extrapolate the better HD DVD ranking of 'Happy Feet' to say that HD DVD is obviously selling better with family films than Blu-Ray is. Or, for that matter, that music releases (NIN) are FAR more likely to sell to HD DVD buyers (I don't buy either of these points, BTW - the data is not long-term enough). Both stances would be absurd, given the limited amount of data available.

Quote:


It should be obvious to anyone that BD is selling much better than HD DVD.

It is not 'obvious' to anyone who understands the difference between instantaneous ranking data and cumulative sales data. What is 'obvious' from this data is that the rankings (not necessarily sales) for same-title competing releases are much closer than the '# in top 10,000' type of data would suggest.

Now, if I were a product manager getting ready to release a new title and trying to decide which format I was going to pick for release, the data would tell me that SD DVD is a must-have. Releasing on an HD format would be optional, and it doesn't appear to me that either would have a significant advantage over the alternative - both are still fringe formats. Heck, I'm not even sure that an HD disc format would be preferable to VHS at this point.

Again, though, I will stand by my statement that if BD reaches the point where they have 2x-3x as many good titles available for sale, that will have enough of a negative impact on HD DVD player sales to kill HD DVD. It does NOT automatically mean, however, that BD will replace SD DVD - there's a long way to go before that can be determined. OTOH, if HD DVD gets mass-market players out (<$200) before this happens, BD will have to scramble to catch up before more HD DVD studios go neutral to capitalize on the installed HD DVD hardware base.

[Caveat: Universal going neutral would be the 'nuclear' event - if this happens, HD DVD is dead instantly.]
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post #1097 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 02:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

It is not 'obvious' to anyone who understands the difference between instantaneous ranking data and cumulative sales data.

You can type as many page as you like but content is still King. Blu-ray has 7 major studios supplying content & HD DVD has 3 supplying content with 2 of those supporting BD. I can not understand why anyone does not see this as a major advantage for BDA.

This is not an instant in time, the numbers below are representative of several weeks now (back into 2006?).

DVD Empire info 03/01/2007 @ 1400 hours CST.

Blu-Ray
Week: 56.33%
Month: 63.19%


HD-DVD
Week: 43.67%
Month: 36.81%



DVD Empire info 01/22/2007 @ 1400 hours CST.

[quote]Blu-Ray
Week: 59.63%
Month: 56.73%


HD-DVD
Week: 40.37%
Month: 43.27%
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post #1098 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

DVD Empire info 03/01/2007 @ 1400 hours CST.

Blu-Ray
Week: 56.33%
Month: 63.19%


HD-DVD
Week: 43.67%
Month: 36.81%

One thing to keep in mind here is that the date for "Week" is likely for a day or two at the most since it is for the week of February 27th, was update yesterday, and previous info indicates that it is the week starting on that date, not the week ending on that date. The information for the week of the 27th will likely get updated once or twice more before the week is out. That last full week shown (the week of the 20th) now shows 65.05% for Blu-ray, although it was much closer when info for that week was first put up (and might have even been for a partial day). These can be seen by going to the "Complete Info" and then sales data by the week.

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post #1099 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 05:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

These can be seen by going to the "Complete Info" and then sales data by the week.

For me the real numbers to look at are the monthly and YTD. But regardless, it should be obvious to the anti BD crowd that total sales of BD have surpassed HD DVD, is now selling at over twice the rate, now has a number of titles released advantage, a large exclusive title released advantage and a large exclusive tile list that will be released over the next 3 months. And all of this, for the most, accomplished in the last 3 months.
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post #1100 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 06:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Blu-ray has 7 major studios supplying content & HD DVD has 3 supplying content with 2 of those supporting BD. I can not understand why anyone does not see this as a major advantage for BDA.

Because you clearly can't count.

Count the total number of studios releasing for both. 7-3 is a BS number and you know it.

Stick to facts - there's no need to resort to BS in your own forum. The facts are good enough for BD.....
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post #1101 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 06:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

But regardless, it should be obvious to the anti BD crowd that total sales of BD have surpassed HD DVD, is now selling at over twice the rate, now has a number of titles released advantage, a large exclusive title released advantage and a large exclusive tile list that will be released over the next 3 months.

Have you seen the recently-announced Universal release plans for 2007? Not enough to completely catch up with BDs releases, but enough to keep it close for the rest of the year.

It's still a race. If the total number of available releases stay relatively close for the rest of 2007, it will come down to how fast the hardware prices drop.

Yes, BD has the lead for the moment. It is not enough of a lead, however, to call the game over.
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post #1102 of 11556 Old 03-01-2007, 11:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Because you clearly can't count.

Count the total number of studios releasing for both. 7-3 is a BS number and you know it.

Stick to facts - there's no need to resort to BS in your own forum. The facts are good enough for BD.....

Then you list out the MAJOR studios. I say again for major studios:

Blu-ray Studios = 111b
HD DVD Studios = 11b
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post #1103 of 11556 Old 03-02-2007, 05:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Have you seen the recently-announced Universal release plans for 2007? Not enough to completely catch up with BDs releases, but enough to keep it close for the rest of the year.

You do know those aren't official listings yet (and many had no street dates anyways) from Universal, right? They are listings from a person many HD-DVD supporters claim is a blu-ray fanboy, and who hints that there is some possibility those titles might come out in Blu-ray as well? In other words, these are all currently RUMORS.
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post #1104 of 11556 Old 03-02-2007, 06:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

[Caveat: Universal going neutral would be the 'nuclear' event - if this happens, HD DVD is dead instantly.]

You never know, it might happen sooner than you think if Hunt is to be believed (and if you believe his rumored listings, then why not his caveat that there are things going on at Universal right now?)
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post #1105 of 11556 Old 03-02-2007, 08:57 PM
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new preliminary sales numbers for the week of Feb 25....Blu-ray sales are still performing very well and blu-ray is putting ground between it and HD-DVD in the YTD and SI numbers!

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post #1106 of 11556 Old 03-02-2007, 09:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

I don't think this needs to be proven at all.

Of course it needs to be proven. Just because something has been repeated often doesn't mean it should be accepted without some critical thought. For instance a video format such as Laserdisc probably had a higher attach rate than DVD but which one actually had better long term movie sales?


Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

In effect, that attachment rate tells you how large the current available market for the media is.

Not really, all it tells you is that a certain number of discs on average has been sold per playback device. By itself it doesn't really tell you anything more than that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

If you're a studio exec getting ready to decide how release a movie, why do you care about total sales of a format? How many copies you will sell of THAT RELEASE is what drives profits.

From what the studios have said I don't think any of them really want both HD formats to stick around so that alone will be encouragement for them to eventually move to one HD format. As such total movie sales of a format is something that probably is payed attention to by all the major studios. Also even a studio such as Universal, which will have less competition in the HD DVD movie market, might be able to make more money in the Blu-ray movie market considering its greater sales.
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post #1107 of 11556 Old 03-03-2007, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Just because something has been repeated often doesn't mean it should be accepted without some critical thought. For instance a video format such as Laserdisc probably had a higher attach rate than DVD but which one actually had better long term movie sales?]

Long-term sales are irrelevant. The only thing you care about when making a product release decision in this type of market is how many you'll sell in the first quarter of release, and this is driven by the current available market, not what might or might not happen over the net several years. Think in terms of Net Present Value and turns ratios - revenue 3-5 years out has no real value in comparison to today's investment.

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Not really, all it tells you is that a certain number of discs on average has been sold per playback device. By itself it doesn't really tell you anything more than that.

Yes. And that is all you need to know to extrapolate how many of a certain type of a disc will sell in today's market environment.

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Originally Posted by asj2006 View Post

new preliminary sales numbers for the week of Feb 25

The YTD trend is clear, and matches fairly well with the number of new releases.

However, where did their '2006 estimates' come from (Note 1 - Assumed figures for beginning of 2007)? How reliable are they?
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post #1108 of 11556 Old 03-03-2007, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Then you list out the MAJOR studios. I say again for major studios:

Blu-ray Studios = 111b
HD DVD Studios = 11b

Blu-ray has more than 10x as many studios as HD DVD (b)
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post #1109 of 11556 Old 03-03-2007, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

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Not really, all it tells you is that a certain number of discs on average has been sold per playback device. By itself it doesn't really tell you anything more than that.

Yes. And that is all you need to know to extrapolate how many of a certain type of a disc will sell in today's market environment.

Attach rate by itself won't tell you how many discs will sell in any given format. You can't extrapolate anything without knowing the number of playback devices.
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post #1110 of 11556 Old 03-03-2007, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Connavar View Post

Blu-ray has more than 10x as many studios as HD DVD (b)

I did not say that. MauneyM said to me Because you clearly can't count. So I just restated my previous studio count using the same numbers but counted in a different number base system (which was clearly noted).
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