BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 382 - AVS Forum
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post #11431 of 11556 Old 04-17-2012, 02:47 PM
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The current theatrical box office performance is also up around +20% for 2012 over 2011 to date and those are the releases that will come to home video in the next four months during the 2Q and early 3Q period as well. So that will also be a positive influencing factor on the DVD and BD sell through metrics as well.

Last year had some strong new to Blu-ray releases in the 3Q (Star Wars) and nothing this year is quite at that level but the new to Blu-ray releases including Jaws and Titanic 3D and Indiana Jones together may add up to something comparable.

After that it really all depends on how the summer blockbusters perform to see how the year turns out.

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post #11432 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 12:19 AM
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post #11433 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 12:26 AM
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post #11434 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 03:01 AM
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Sorry: error in update will correct as soon as possible

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post #11435 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 03:05 AM
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Sorry: error in update will correct as soon as possible

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post #11436 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 03:39 PM
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There is not a lot of high performing weeks in the 2Q or early 3Q left after we get past week 3 in the 2Q (week 16).

Once we get into the week 17-37 period the better box office performance of the 2012 theatrical releases have a chance to be compared against modest performing weeks from 2011.

Blu-ray is currently at a $38 M a week average performance (see the dashed green line on the chart below). Even if that drops in the 2Q and early 3Q it still compares pretty favorably to the $23.5 M average for the twenty weeks between 17-37 on the chart below.

That gives a good chance to gain some ground for both Blu-ray (and DVD) if better releases are coming in the pipeline and we do not have any major comparison weeks in 2011 coming up in that period like we had last year when the 2Q 2010 Avatar and Alice in Wonderland drove the metrics down.

What we get at the end of the Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol vs Easter 2011 + second week of Harry Potter 7.1 week will likely serve as a sticky base floor for the metric with some inertia to stay where it is or trend upwards in the rest of the 2Q and 3Q period until September.

Last year the YoY cumulative statistic was driven sharply downward by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the statistics. Nothing like that will happen this year in all likelihood.






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post #11437 of 11556 Old 04-18-2012, 08:36 PM
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Week Ending 04/15/12 Blu-ray and DVD Sales Results


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'War Horse' Gallops to No. 1; 'Darkest Hour' Lights Up BD, Rental Charts

18 Apr, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


War Horse

Walt Disney Studios’ War Horse topped the national home video sales charts its second week in stores after debuting at No. 2 the previous week, while the Summit Entertainment sci-fi actioner The Darkest Hour, which earned a meager $21.4 million in theaters, debuted at No. 1 on both the Blu-ray Disc sales chart and Home Media Magazine’s weekly rental chart.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart for the week ended April 15, War Horse, a Steven Spielberg-directed historical drama that earned nearly $80 million at the domestic box office, held off two newcomers: Anchor Bay’s The Iron Lady, a $29.9 million-grossing biopic about former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (portrayed by Meryl Streep), which bowed at No. 2, and The Darkest Hour, which debuted at No. 3.

The prior week’s top seller, Universal Studios’ Hop, plummeted down the rabbit hole to No. 7, a typical fate for holiday titles once the holiday (in this case, Easter) is over.

On Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart, War Horse slipped to No. 2 from No. 1 its debut week, while The Iron Lady debuted at No. 3.

Blu-ray Disc accounted for 54% of total unit sales for The Darkest Hour, which explains the film’s No. 1 debut on the Blu-ray Disc chart. The Iron Lady generated just 29% of its first-week sales from Blu-ray Disc, while War Horse, in week two, generated 30% of its sales from the high-definition edition, down from 36% its first week in stores.

On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, War Horse also finished the week at No. 2 after debuting at No. 1 the previous week, while the No. 3 spot went to 20th Century Fox’s The Descendants, fresh off its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox. The film was ranked No. 58 the previous week. The Iron Lady debuted at No. 6.



Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 04/15/12

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...l-charts-27012











This historical data has been updated below with more current information.

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post #11438 of 11556 Old 04-20-2012, 02:54 PM
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Blu-ray Sales: War Horse wins by a Nose

This is becoming a pattern on the Blu-ray sales chart. Just like it has been for the past few weeks, new releases were soft.

Granted, War Horse did top the Blu-ray sales chart, but with just 314,000 units / $7.84 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 36%, which is about average for the format.

Hop remained in second place with 307,000 units / $5.79 million over the week and 910,000 units / $16.64 million after three. This is good for a live action kids movie, but too many of those is hurting the format as a whole.


The Muppets grew by 30% to 191,000 units / $5.17 million for the week giving it totals of 1.14 million / $29.15 million after three. Reaching 1 million Blu-ray units sold is a good milestone, especially for a live action kids movie.


We Bought a Zoo opened in fourth place 187,000 units / $4.30 million. It is a family drama, so it wasn't expected to be a huge hit on Blu-ray, so an opening week share of 27% it acceptable.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked fell from first to fifth with 170,000 units / $4.27 million for the week and 451,000 units / $10.82 million after two.

There were no other new releases to chart, but Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 did pop back into the top ten and this helped it cross the 5 million unit milestone. Only Avatar has sold more units.

The overall Blu-ray market was again weak in nearly every way. It was down significantly compared to last year and when compared to DVDs sales.

However, it was up when compared to last week with growth of 32% in terms of units and 37% in terms of dollars.

Last year the Blu-ray sales leader was Tron: Legacy, which in many ways is the perfect film for high definition. It is visually impressive and its target audience is Fanboys. It sold almost 900,000 copies during its first week, which is nearly three times more than the top film sold this time around. So it should come as no surprise that year-over-year, Blu-ray sales were down 24% in terms of units and 27% in terms of dollars.

Because Blu-ray sales fell and DVD sales rose, the overall Blu-ray share fell to 29% in terms of units and 39% in terms of dollars.


Next week's new releases are even weaker with no prime releases.

The Iron Lady might lead the way, but as a drama, it's Blu-ray share will likely be low compared to the format's average.

Worse still, this week last year was led by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, which sold 1.4 million units. Nothing will come close to that this year and we will have another year-over-year loss. We won't have a win till Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol comes out.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2012-04-18

Movies
War Horse
Hop
The Muppets
We Bought a Zoo
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=7198


Quote:


DVD Sales: Hop Leaps Up

There were not a lot of new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD Sales Chart, but at least there was some action on top.

Hop overtook Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked for first place with 729,000 units / $10.52 million for the week and 2.04 million units / $33.51 million after three. It is now just the third DVD of 2012 to sell 2 million units. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked was pushed to second place with 674,000 units / $10.01 million for the week and 1.60 million unit s/ $26.24 million after two.

By comparison, the previous film sold 2.54 million units during its first week of release.

War Horse earned third place in its debut with 556,000 units / $9.45 million. It did relatively better on Blu-ray.

We Bought a Zoo was right behind with 516,000 units / $8.77 million. This is a bit of a disappointment, but unless it cost a whole lot more to make than we thought, it will likely be enough to earn a profit sooner rather than later.

The Muppets rounded out the top five with 331,000 units / $4.83 million for the week and 1.33 million units / $22.14 million after three.

There were no other new releases to reach the top 30, but Despicable Me popped into the top ten and sold enough to cross the 8 million unit milestone.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2012-04-18

Movies
Hop
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
War Horse
We Bought a Zoo
The Muppets
Despicable Me

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=7196

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post #11439 of 11556 Old 04-20-2012, 03:31 PM
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post #11440 of 11556 Old 04-20-2012, 03:42 PM
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post #11441 of 11556 Old 04-21-2012, 04:46 AM
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I guess its not really surprising that DVD did well at Easter week here with the help of Hop a $100 M Easter Bunny themed family title that was held off long after its theatrical release last year to take advantage of an near Easter holiday release window.

Blu-ray did not gain as much as its about even where its been in marketshare for the year but Blu-ray has reached far higher marketshare in the holiday season exceeding 40% revenue marketshare. $45 M ain't that bad for the week.

Blu-ray has also consistently gained marketshare year over year, including this year where OD totals are YTD almost even.

Steady gains over time for Blu-ray in revenues generated, units sold and marketshare speak for themselves as do rising household penetration and retailer support for the format over time.

If this is the first year that Blu-ray covers DVD's attrition and with the help of better releases, an improving economy and resulting slower DVD losses and OD sales actually stabilize, then that will be seen as a significant event as the industry transforms itself over time to more cloud based digital offerings.

Its hardly unexpected that for Easter week that the DVD marketshare would rise and Blu-ray would be modest with all the family related DVDs sold on holiday sales events.

What's surprising is Blu-ray maintained its marketshare without the help of a major title being released (like last year with the help of Harry Potter 7.1 around Easter)

Its also not surprising that the YoY gain for Blu-ray would be a poor comparison as last year's comparison week was the second week of Tangled and the release of Tron: Legacy.

What's kinda surprising is Blu-ray did as well as it did without the help of a major release and still did over $45 M more than last week, which implies family related Easter sales of BD+DVD combos and family themed Blu-ray's sold well for the week.

The TBO for this week according to HMM was a modest $155.66 M compared to a huge $427.96 M last week down -$272.31 M or down -63.63%. DVD had the Easter holiday to help and that's tradtionally been a strong DVD sales holiday week, but Blu-ray has not been known for strong Easter holiday sales in the past or strong family related title sales.

All of those above considerations actually make the results a bit surprising in Blu-ray's performance better than expected for last week.


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post #11442 of 11556 Old 04-21-2012, 04:47 AM
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The next couple weeks of comparisons will be quite tough as its the 2Q 2011 release of Harry Potter 7.1 and the next week is second full week of Harry Potter 7.1 and Easter 2011.

The Iron Lady and The Darkest Hour this year will be totally over matched by Harry Potter 7.1 from last year with a TBO of only $51 M vs $315 M in another TBO blowout.

That will make the TBO for the year at the end of week 15 to be about 10% down for the year until we get a small rebound starting in the next week.

It will be interesting to see how the cumulative Blu-ray and DVD and OD metrics look at the end of the next couple weeks revenue data as that's likely to be the floor or near the floor for those numbers all the way until September.

After the next couple weeks, there is nothing between now and mid September 20 weeks, five months from now, that in 2010 was more than what the weekly average for 2012 has been YTD.

Its likely that the 2Q and 3Q 2012 will have weeks below the current YTD weekly average of $38 M, but there really are few weeks in the 2011 comparisons until September that are large enough to drive the cumulative YoY metric down.

Last year 2011 had the 2010 releases of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland to drive the metrics down and there is nothing like that in the mix this year, so what we get after Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol week will have inertia and momentum to stay where it is until September.




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post #11443 of 11556 Old 04-21-2012, 11:53 PM
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Blu-ray Historical Marketshare Trends Through Week Ending 04/07/12





















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post #11444 of 11556 Old 04-22-2012, 12:25 AM
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Blu-ray Historical Weekly Unit Sales Trends Through Week Ending 04/07/12



















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post #11445 of 11556 Old 04-22-2012, 12:32 AM
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Blu-ray Historical Quarterly Sales and Marketshare Trends Through Week Ending 04/07/12


Note: 2Q 2012 data from only one non representative week of Easter Holiday sales.













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post #11446 of 11556 Old 04-22-2012, 12:51 AM
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Week Ending 04/15/12 Blu-ray and DVD Sales Results


Quote:


'War Horse' Gallops to No. 1; 'Darkest Hour' Lights Up BD, Rental Charts

18 Apr, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


War Horse

Walt Disney Studios’ War Horse topped the national home video sales charts its second week in stores after debuting at No. 2 the previous week, while the Summit Entertainment sci-fi actioner The Darkest Hour, which earned a meager $21.4 million in theaters, debuted at No. 1 on both the Blu-ray Disc sales chart and Home Media Magazine’s weekly rental chart.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart for the week ended April 15, War Horse, a Steven Spielberg-directed historical drama that earned nearly $80 million at the domestic box office, held off two newcomers: Anchor Bay’s The Iron Lady, a $29.9 million-grossing biopic about former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (portrayed by Meryl Streep), which bowed at No. 2, and The Darkest Hour, which debuted at No. 3.

The prior week’s top seller, Universal Studios’ Hop, plummeted down the rabbit hole to No. 7, a typical fate for holiday titles once the holiday (in this case, Easter) is over.

On Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart, War Horse slipped to No. 2 from No. 1 its debut week, while The Iron Lady debuted at No. 3.

Blu-ray Disc accounted for 54% of total unit sales for The Darkest Hour, which explains the film’s No. 1 debut on the Blu-ray Disc chart. The Iron Lady generated just 29% of its first-week sales from Blu-ray Disc, while War Horse, in week two, generated 30% of its sales from the high-definition edition, down from 36% its first week in stores.

On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, War Horse also finished the week at No. 2 after debuting at No. 1 the previous week, while the No. 3 spot went to 20th Century Fox’s The Descendants, fresh off its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox. The film was ranked No. 58 the previous week. The Iron Lady debuted at No. 6.



Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/15/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 04/15/12

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...l-charts-27012










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post #11447 of 11556 Old 04-22-2012, 12:57 AM
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Week Ending 04/15/12 Blu-ray and DVD Sales Results











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post #11448 of 11556 Old 04-23-2012, 03:48 PM
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Six Questions: Craig Kornblau, President of Universal Studios Home Entertainment

23 Apr, 2012
By: Erik Gruenwedel


Craig Kornblau

Universal Pictures finished as the No. 1 studio at the box office at the end of the first quarter (ended March 31), holding off Lionsgate’s juggernaut The Hunger Games thanks to three movies (The Lorax, Safe House and Contraband) in the top 10.

That’s quite a turnaround for the studio, which had just one movie in the top 10 during the same period a year ago and last ranked in the top three during the first 90 days of 2004. A strong box office typically portends a bright home entertainment future (physical and digital) — a reality Craig Kornblau, president of Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said actually began in the fourth quarter.

Kornblau, who has been USHE president since 1999, outlined to Home Media Magazine how theatrical results and a risky marketing decision for the animated film Hop have the studio on the right track in 2012.

HM: What kind of momentum does the box office give Universal Studios Home Entertainment going forward in 2012?

Kornblau: When you’ve got some box office successes, it sure is fun to work at a studio. We had a really exciting end of 2011. The results we had for Bridesmaids (the top transactional VOD title in history, according to the studio), Fast Five and Cowboys & Aliens are just fantastic.

Those gave us clues that it looks like consumers are starting to open their pocketbooks. Clearly, we have been very challenged as an industry being a discretionary good sold at retail. In this tough environment, discretionary goods sold at retail got hit very hard. It is fantastic to see that when you bring great titles to the consumer that are highly ownable, repeatable and collectible, that they are opening their pocketbooks.

The Lorax is feeling like just another in that wildly successful series that started out of the Illumination Entertainment business for us. Despicable Me was just an explosion for us.

HM: Besides box office, what other titles have been key to sellthrough so far this year?

Kornblau: Our first title from a new deal we have in distributing Open Road Films (the joint venture of theater operators AMC and Regency), Killer Elite, did really well. We were really excited to see that as a start to our quarter. Then we had another one of our DVD Originals titles, The Scorpion King 3: Battle for Redemption, which did really terrific numbers. Then we had The Thing, which was a box office disappointment but sure played like gangbusters in home entertainment.

HM: Has catalog factored into the sellthrough turnaround this year?

Kornblau: Yes. We ended 2011 with really nice catalog sales. It has really taken off for us. We have double-digit growth in 2012 versus last year. A lot of this is led by our centennial catalog program.
We started the year with To Kill a Mockingbird, and now we’ve had about a dozen classic titles that have followed. And we have dozens and dozens in various stages of restoration through the rest of the year, including titles like Jaws and E.T.

HM: What was the strategy behind holding Hop a year for the home entertainment release?

Kornblau: Before it came out theatrically [April 1, 2011], we decided to see how it played and determine if it’s the kind of movie we want to bring to market in the typical three-to-five-month window, hold until the Christmas holiday or be really bold and hold it a whole year. When I say bold, you know in a declining retail market we were facing, that’s a decision not made lightly.

During the year-long hiatus, we got some significant commitments from retail, including protecting the street date (it was released on a Friday) and giving us extraordinary placement and marketing opportunities. It was part of their Easter program. Consumers went in looking for chocolate bunnies and they found Hop to be a very compelling opportunity to buy for their family.

HM: What was the result?

Kornblau: When you look at the typical street date decay, each day is smaller [in sellthrough] than the day before. What’s most interesting about this title is that after 15 days, sellthrough was actually bigger than any other day except street date. The second biggest sellthrough day for Hop was the Friday before Easter. Even in the highly seasonal time frame, you never see that kind of sales curve. It’s just crazy.


HM: Is retail support key to keeping consumers away from rental and kiosks?

Kornblau: It starts with great titles. Then the next thing is getting retailers to support them in an extraordinary way. We find through research that more than 50% of consumers who buy a movie didn’t plan to buy it coming into the store. They bought it on impulse
. You want to get them both ways. You want to support your titles with marketing so you build some pre-awareness, and then you want to grab them at the store. We had displays around the country for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts that featured Hop on Blu-ray Disc. We also had three weeks of placement in Target’s circular.

Blu-ray sales were over 30%[for Hop], which was impressive considering it was a family title.


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/uni...tainment-27039

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post #11449 of 11556 Old 04-23-2012, 09:01 PM
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Quote:


Some 'Impossible' Exclusives

17 Apr, 2012
By: John Latchem



Retailers laid out the red carpet for the disc debut of Paramount’s Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol with several promotions and exclusives.

Best Buy offered special one-day pricing for the title on its April 17 debut, offering the DVD for $16.99 and the Blu-ray for $19.99. Getting into the spirit of the franchise, Best Buy’s ad declared that “limited-time pricing … will self-destruct end of day Tuesday.”

Best Buy’s Blu-ray of the film was an exclusive edition with more than an hour of bonus content not found on the wide Blu-ray release.

Walmart’s exclusive went in the opposite direction, with a bare-bones DVD edition that offered no bonus material.

Target offered an exclusive DVD four-pack of the “Mission: Impossible” films for $29.99.

Other exclusives at Target included a 10th anniversary Blu-ray of Disney’s The Princess Diaries at $19.99, and Universal’s Necessary Roughness: Season One (which won’t go wide until June 5), also listed at $19.99.

Best Buy offered as an exclusive Syfy channel’s Alphas: Season One, also from Universal, for $29.99.




http://www.homemediamagazine.com/age...ble-exclusives

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post #11450 of 11556 Old 04-23-2012, 09:14 PM
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Projections: 'Ghost Protocol' Set for Success WE 04/19/12

23 Apr, 2012
By: John Latchem



Paramount Home Media Distribution’s Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol, which brought in $209 million at U.S. theaters, should have no trouble dominating the sales and rental charts the week ending April 22.

After Ghost Protocol, the new release with the highest profile is probably BBC Home Entertainment’s Frozen Planet, the latest in a franchise of nature documentaries that began with Planet Earth.

Fox’s The Sitter will get a boost on the rental chart now that its 28-day kiosk embargo has expired.

Rank Title Studio Weeks on Chart

Projected Top 3 Sellers for Week Ending 4/22/2012



1 Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol Paramount New

2 The Darkest Hour Summit 2

3 Frozen Planet BBC New



Projected Top 3 Rentals for Week Ending 4/22/2012
1 Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol Paramount New
2 The Sitter Fox 5
3 The Darkest Hour Summit 2




http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...-success-27026

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post #11451 of 11556 Old 04-24-2012, 01:23 PM
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Week Ending 4/14/12

Note: This was going against the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part I with $316.34 TBO release week from last year.



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post #11452 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 03:37 PM
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Variety


Posted: Tue., Apr. 24, 2012, 3:25pm PT

Study: Homevid decline hitting studio values

Morgan Stanley's Swinburne says film biz has lost half its value

By JILL GOLDSMITH, RACHEL ABRAMS
As showbiz congloms tally up quarterly results, they face a harsh realization: Homevideo revenue is still declining, which has slashed the value of film operations at the majors during the past five years, according to one Wall Streeter.

In a provocative report based on corporate earnings and other public data, Morgan Stanley's Ben Swinburne estimates that 20th Century Fox, Warner Bros., Universal, Paramount and Disney lost an average of 52% in value from 2007 to 2011. (The numbers do not include the studios' TV operations or consumer product divisions.) Sony breaks out fewer numbers for its film biz and therefore wasn't included.

Of the majors, U took the biggest hit, down $6.5 billion, while Par was affected the least, down $1.5 billion.

While the discussion isn't new, the effect has rarely been laid out in such stark terms. Studio execs were quick to question Swinburne's methodology and conclusions.

The report is making waves just as media congloms prepare to roll out first-quarter earnings, inviting more scrutiny of Hollywood's shifting economics. Hollywood values could continue to fall, Swinburne said earlier this month, "leading us to the conclusion that only through significant realignment of cost levels, particularly in the area of marketing and distribution but also overall production costs, can values be maximized given the revenue outlook."

In other words, homevid revenue can no longer make up for the rising production and marketing costs of most studio movies.

But execs at four studios begged to differ. Most said it would be near impossible to derive Swinburne's numbers using available data. Some studios combine film and TV production in their earnings reports and none break out costs.

One studio rep noted that Universal fell much more than the others, skewing Swinburne's average, which the rep said "was kind of unfair." He also noted that the report valued U about the same as much smaller Lionsgate Entertainment, which has a market cap of $1.5 billion.

The 52% figure "is completely off base. I don't think it's fair or accurate," said a top exec at a major studio.

But he and others mostly put the emphasis on opportunities going forward -- in international markets, particularly China, new services like UltraViolet and Blu-ray and stronger VOD are seen as ways to help revive homevid divisions. "Obviously our industry is shifting, and that's no secret, and we are trying to shift with it," said an exec at another major.

By Swinburne's estimates, Universal's value took the biggest hit over the past few years, dropping from $8.1 billion to $1.6 billion by the beginning of 2012. Disney follows, going from $10 billion to $7 billion. The report values Paramount at roughly $2.6 billion, down from $4.1 billion in 2007. Fox dropped from $10.2 billion to $4.2 billion, while estimates peg Warner Bros. at $3.9 billion, down from $7.8 billion.

In an earnings preview Monday, Michael Nathanson of Nomura Securities said homevid unit sales for the three months were down 5.3% -- an improvement from the high single-digit declines in the fourth quarter but worse than the third quarter, when DVD sales dipped only 2%. The data excludes one of the market's bigger physical distributors, Walmart, but he said, "we believe it to be a good proxy of industry health, which we still believe to be a secular declining business."

Nathanson said NBCU's film studio led its peers with 17% growth, while Lionsgate, Sony and 20th Century Fox all declined by more than 20% due to tough comps and less product for sale.

Swinburne acknowledged that growth in international box office and TV markets and emerging digital distribution models have helped offset homevid revenue declines. But these streams haven't yet made up for lost ground at a time when consumers are getting more used to paying less for content.

Richard Greenfield of BTIG Research asserts that "Hollywood's problems go beyond declining interest in buying movies -- consumers are also less interested in going out to the movies." Home theaters are taking off, with the average TV purchased for a U.S. living room now a 44-inch HDTV screen, he said, calling for a united effort to collapse theatrical windows to four weeks, despite pain to exhibitors. "Movie studios need to focus on generating returns on their investment that is acceptable to justify their continued investment in making movies."

While the overseas box office has helped recoup some of the homevid declines, according to Swinburne, movies cost more to make and market and splits are less favorable overseas. That's led to an average 12% annual decline in cash flow between 2007 and 2011.

Lucrative sell-through models have ceded ground to lower margin rental businesses like Redbox and Netflix, which offer nothing like the traditional cash flow from the old-time Blockbuster Video stores that used to dot virtually every corner.

Rental has grown at 5% a year since 2007, while sell-through declined by 10%-12%. Kiosks and subscription services made up 53% of total homevideo spending last year, and Swinburne sees that going to 60%-65% by 2015.

Netflix and Redbox "are growing at the expense of high contribution margin ones," Swinburne noted. "From a consumer point of view, spending 50¢ per film on Netflix, the incentive to rent a film at $4 to $5, or buy a digital copy at $10 to $15, goes down considerably. The delayed Netflix window may not be enough to make up for the lower price point."

Swinburne also notes that cloud service UltraViolet had a bumpy start and Blu-ray is growing but not fast enough yet. Consumers are buying more discs but not replacing entire libraries as hoped, while VOD is still evolving.

One positive is that more players are entering the streaming contest, which will likely drive up the price of content. Verizon and Redbox are teaming to take on Netflix along with Blockbuster's Movie Pass, Comcast's Xfinity Streampix, Amazon and a handful of others.

Studio execs note that UltraViolet just got a big push from Walmart, which will take hard discs and transfer them to a cloud locker for a small fee. Once it takes off, studios will be able to tell who's buying what, and the ability to market efficiently will improve exponentially - "effecting studio economics in a profound way," said one exec.

Studio execs also cite the massive Chinese market: It seems to be opening to Hollywood, allowing in more foreign films, and the number of theaters is exploding. It's also an untapped homevideo market, although piracy is a major issue.

And there are other areas studios could trim, according to some experts.

"The country offices can be dramatically consolidated," said attorney David Stern, a partner at Jeffer, Mangels, Butler and Mitchell. "Many studios operate multiple distribution arms … multiple business affairs departments, multiple participations payable departments … Maintaining some of these back-office operations separately is classic empire building and vanity."

Greenfield is focused on the window between theatrical and home entertainment. Collapsing it has been successful for some independent films. "Unfortunately, the major Hollywood studios that attempted to 'trial' or 'test' releasing movies earlier have succumbed to the aggressive push back from exhibition chains. The time has come for every studio to stop trialing and permanently collapse windows as the new Hollywood business model. Exhibitors will acquiesce, as they simply cannot afford to be without content from Hollywood. It is time for studios to play offense."

Meanwhile, studios may just have significantly less tolerance for costly flops. Walt Disney's Rich Ross left his job as head of the studio after the division took a painful $200 million loss on "John Carter."

Media companies are not going to exit the film biz. Studios on average make up 15-20% of their parent's profits, "not nearly as big a deal as it was ten or twenty years ago," said Alan Gould of Evercore Partners.

Since analysts are generally upbeat on TV, they aren't all fretting over the studios or the stocks, which some think are even undervalued. From Wall Street's perspective, said Gould, is that congloms have "morphed into being cable network companies."

Likewise, if one of the major studios ever does goes on the block, it would fetch a price well above Swinburne's valuation.

"There's a scarcity factor. There are only a few studios and the barriers to entry are impossible," said one exec.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118053078?refCatId=13

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post #11453 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 05:59 PM
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Week Ending 4/14/12

Note: This was going against the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part I with $316.34 TBO release week from last year.

















http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...k-ended-041412

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post #11454 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 06:16 PM
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Week Ending 04/22/12


HMM is reporting that Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol did a 67.14% Blu-ray unit marketshare for the week ending 04/22/12 on the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

As a major action adventure title with good box office and the first major Blu-ray friendly title of the year it was expected to do well, but that probably exceeds any expectations for Blu-ray's share.

At a glance that title did seven times the volume of the next leading title which is typical of a home video blockbuster title so the volumes should be pretty high as well.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...col-no-1-27073

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post #11455 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 06:21 PM
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Week Ending 04/22/12


Quote:


'Mission' Accomplished: 'Ghost Protocol' Is No. 1

24 Apr, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol

Paramount Home Media Distribution scored a rare triple-whammy on the home video charts the week ended April 22, as the latest installment in the Tom Cruise-starring “Mission: Impossible” franchise debuted at No. 1 on all three charts.

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol easily vaulted to the top of both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert chart, which tracks overall disc sales, as well as Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales charts.

The film — which earned $209.4 million in U.S. theaters — turned in a particularly strong Blu-ray Disc performance, with the high-definition version accounting for 67% of total unit sales.


Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, distributed by Disney, finished a distant second on both sales charts its third week in stores. Overall, the film sold 16% as many discs as Ghost Protocol, while on Blu-ray the disparity was even greater, with War Horse selling just 7% as many units as the Tom Cruise blockbuster.

On Home Media Magazine’s weekly video rental chart, Ghost Protocol claimed an easy victory in the top spot as well, followed at No. 2 by 20th Century Fox’s The Sitter, which shot up from No. 49 the prior week as it came off its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox.

Another Fox film, The Descendants, with George Clooney, remained at No. 3 on the rental chart, while the No. 4 position went to Universal Studios’ Hop, an Easter bunny movie that was held back from the two leading rental outlets until the week after Easter.


Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 04/22/12

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...col-no-1-27073

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post #11456 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 06:36 PM
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Nice showing for the first Blu-ray friendly action movie of the year.

Probably will be 900,000 units + and $40 M plus in HMM Sunday through Saturday period when we get the data.

Could be more.

I'm not sure if that's a record for Blu-ray unit marketshare or for a major release. I think its close but just a little below Captain America and Tron: Legacy last year which IIRC were around 68%.

But Mission Impossible should do better volumes and revenues as well as a halo effect on other titles in the series.

This week is going against a strong Easter holiday sales week and second week of Harry Potter and the Deathly hallows Part I from last year which has a strong $171.47 M DVD + $45.83 M BD = $217.30 OD so its not going to give much of a improvement in the YoY stats but its obviously not doing to hurt them as much with this level of higher priced Blu-ray unit performance for the leading title.

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post #11457 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 06:58 PM
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The Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare for the Week Ending 04/24/12 is 52.34%

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post #11458 of 11556 Old 04-25-2012, 09:29 PM
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Still working on the update, but here is a quick taste.

That's a pretty typical graph for a major tentpole release in comparison with the other titles index numbers.

Only thing that really different is the extremely high Blu-ray marketshare there for a major release. That's a good sign for the revenue and unit numbers for Blu-ray when we get them next week.




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post #11459 of 11556 Old 04-26-2012, 02:20 AM
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The-Numbers DVD Top 30 and Blu-ray Top 10 Weekly Sales Report Week Ending 04/15/12




Quote:


Blu-ray Sales: Our Darkest Hour

This literally could turn out to be the worst week of the year on the Blu-ray sales chart.

The best-selling new release was The Darkest Hour, which only managed 158,000 units / $3.17 million. The only good news is the film's opening week Blu-ray share, which was an impressive 54%.

War Horse was pushed into second place with 105,000 units / $3.16 million for the week and 435,000 units / $11.39 million after two.

The Iron Lady opened in third place with sales of 93,000 units / $1.82. million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was only 29%; however, while that is low for the format, it is actually better than average for the genre.


The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo rose from tenth place to fourth place with 66,000 units / $1.24 million and for the week, giving it a total of 891,000 units / $18.28 million after four.

We Bought a Zoo rounded out the top five with 52,000 units / $1.51 million for the week giving it totals of 249,000 units / $6.03 million after two.

There were no other new releases to chart.

Like I already said, this might turn out to be the worst week on the Blu-ray sales chart for the entire year.

There's a chance that late in summer when TV on DVD dominates new releases we will see worse sales, but this is as bad as we've seen it all year thus far.


Compared to last week, Blu-ray sales were down 54% in terms of units and 53% in terms of dollars.

Compared to last year, sales were even worse, if you can imagine that. Blu-ray plummeted 70% in terms of units and 68% in terms of dollars. If there is any consolation, it's that DVD sales were almost as bad and the overall Blu-ray share wasn't too badly shaken, although it was down to 31% in terms of units and 38% in terms of dollars.


Next week we will finally see some good news on Blu-ray, as we will get the first home market numbers for Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. I am a little worried the Best Buy Exclusive will mess with the numbers, but if it doesn't, then that one release should sell more than the entire market did this week (or roughly 850,000 units / $21 million).

By comparison, last year's new releases were led by The King's Speech, which didn't sell a lot of Blu-rays. Unfortunately, last year the DVD sales and the Blu-ray sales were led by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 and 2012 might wind up on the losing end of the year-over-year comparison yet again.

[Edit: Last year was also Easter 2011 holiday sales as well]


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2012-04-25

Movies
The Darkest Hour
War Horse
The Iron Lady
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
We Bought a Zoo

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=7217



Quote:


DVD Sales: Iron Has Soft Start on DVD

It was a bad week for DVD, which is common at this time of year.

The Iron Lady was the best of the new releases, but it only managed second place.

War Horse climbed into top spot with 244,000 units / $4.67 million over the week for totals of 830,000 units / $14.62 million after two.

The Iron Lady was right behind with 228,000 units / $3.42 million during its first week of release. This is an acceptable opening for a limited release that managed some significant mainstream success.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked and We Bought a Zoo were neck and neck for third place. The former sold 186,000 units and $3.35 million in revenue, while the latter managed 183,000 units sold and $3.30 million. The two films have running tallies of 1.83 million units / $30.12 million and 727,000 units / $12.53 million respectively.

The Darkest Hour opened in fifth place with 136,000 units / $2.03 million. The film struggled at the box office and it is doing no better on the home market, so the kindest thing to do is just move on.

The only other new release to chart was One Tree Hill: Season Nine. It earned seventh place with 87,000 units / $2.17 million.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2012-04-25

Movies
War Horse
The Iron Lady
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
We Bought a Zoo
The Darkest Hour

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=7215

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post #11460 of 11556 Old 04-29-2012, 08:58 PM
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(complete report with updated information )

Week Ending 04/22/12


Quote:


'Mission' Accomplished: 'Ghost Protocol' Is No. 1

24 Apr, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol

Paramount Home Media Distribution scored a rare triple-whammy on the home video charts the week ended April 22, as the latest installment in the Tom Cruise-starring “Mission: Impossible” franchise debuted at No. 1 on all three charts.

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol easily vaulted to the top of both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert chart, which tracks overall disc sales, as well as Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales charts.

The film — which earned $209.4 million in U.S. theaters — turned in a particularly strong Blu-ray Disc performance, with the high-definition version accounting for 67% of total unit sales.


Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, distributed by Disney, finished a distant second on both sales charts its third week in stores. Overall, the film sold 16% as many discs as Ghost Protocol, while on Blu-ray the disparity was even greater, with War Horse selling just 7% as many units as the Tom Cruise blockbuster.

On Home Media Magazine’s weekly video rental chart, Ghost Protocol claimed an easy victory in the top spot as well, followed at No. 2 by 20th Century Fox’s The Sitter, which shot up from No. 49 the prior week as it came off its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox.

Another Fox film, The Descendants, with George Clooney, remained at No. 3 on the rental chart, while the No. 4 position went to Universal Studios’ Hop, an Easter bunny movie that was held back from the two leading rental outlets until the week after Easter.


Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 04/22/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 04/22/12

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...col-no-1-27073










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