HD-DVD Strikes Back! Episode 2 - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 09:09 AM - Thread Starter
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45GB HD-DVD possible. Blu-Ray merger potentially in doubt

Toshiba Corp. has developed a prototype HD-DVD disc that increases the format’s storage capacity by 50 percent and brings it much closer to that of the rival Blu-ray Disc, the company said Tuesday.

The new disc has a capacity of 45GB, which is just under the 50GB offered by a dual-layer Blu-ray Disc, and will give content producers additional space to store longer high-definition movies or extras such as trailers, out-takes or interactive features.

Toshiba accomplished the capacity jump by adding an extra data storage layer to the disc. Each HD-DVD layer has a capacity of 15GB and the new disc packs three such layers.

.


Nice...didn't know they'd be able to add another layer. This will undoubtedly make disc production harder ie more expensive. But that's not all!

The company also announced a second prototype disc that uses the same basic technology. The hybrid disc combines a dual-layer HD-DVD with a dual-layer DVD to provide a double-sided disc that can be played in either HD-DVD or DVD players. The disc could be used as a transitional format enabling consumers to buy discs for use in DVD players while building up a library of high-definition content for the time when they purchase an HD-DVD player.



Now THIS could really hurt BD-ROM. I'd spend more money for a disc that player everywhere. Put it in a DVD and it plays SD put it in a HD-DVD and it plays in HD. Wow.

I honestly think that this "merger" isn't going to happen. Bring on the Format War!!!!
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post #2 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 09:44 AM
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agree, with the disks thing. But not sure on the merger. Like you said, the 45GB and 30-10 has a lot of unanswered questions.
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post #3 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
The hybrid disc combines a dual-layer HD-DVD with a dual-layer DVD to provide a double-sided disc that can be played in either HD-DVD or DVD players. The disc could be used as a transitional format enabling consumers to buy discs for use in DVD players while building up a library of high-definition content for the time when they purchase an HD-DVD player.
i'd much rather have this - and studios releasing movies as per the press release - than a "merger" at this point.

If they "merge" the consumer will be gouged w/ no competition and (SD) DVD flourishing for years to come

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #4 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by chinch
If they "merge" the consumer will be gouged w/ no competition and (SD) DVD flourishing for years to come
You've GOT to be joking?! If they don't merge, that's what would cause the HD on DVD market to be sluggish for years!!

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post #5 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 11:28 AM - Thread Starter
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What we musn't forget is that technology is evolving at such a rapid pace. The likelyhood that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray achieving the success of DVD is small. Verizon and other ISP are rolling out Fibre to the premises promising 50mpbs down and 2mbps upload speeds. Cable modems are 4-7Mbps and rising.

A format war doesn't really matter because our access to content is about to explode with the advent of IP Television. Format wars aren't necessarily bad. Pioneer has a DVD player that handles SACD and DVD-Audio for $129. So even despite the fact that you have two competiting formats in hirez audio it hasn't prevented low cost players from being made.

Then you look at Samsung the 600lb Gorrila in Korea, Taiwan, China and more players in the market. Japan can no longer control pricing like it once did. Whatever comes out will be commodity status in 4 yrs regardless of who's in the market. You heard it here first.
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post #6 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 11:47 AM
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Actually, I would hardly call this news, well, NEWS.

Obviously Toshiba just wants to hedge their bets in the final negotiations. May 16th is looming awfully fast and if they don't get a merger by then, it's going to be a format war.

The hybrid HD-DVD + DVD is old news. Blu-ray can do that as well. In fact, I'd rather Sony and Panasonic just pushes for this format to come out first.

The added capacity is not really a big deal either. Sony had a BD prototype that increase capacity by 4 layers (I think that means 100 GB) and they said that 8 layers (200 GB) is theoretically possible.

So really, hardly big news.


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post #7 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
What we musn't forget is that technology is evolving at such a rapid pace. The likelyhood that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray achieving the success of DVD is small.
True, not to mention that HD is only slowly starting to be accepted among the masses, heck, I only know one other person who has an HDTV, and it's a 4:3 HD-capable TV, and they never watch any HD on it, yet most everybody I know has a DVD player. However, I just don't believe that competition is good if there are two formats out there.

BTW, Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits has some interesting comments regarding the talks on his page.

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post #8 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 12:09 PM
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Blue-Ray and HD-DVD had better not wait too long to come to market and establish themselves, because disc technology coming down the pike will make them look like small potatoes. Holographic storage technologies are not that far off in the future. Something like HVD(holographic versatile disc), which boasts capacities of over 1 terabyte and MUCH faster transfer speeds, could bring an end to this 'format war' before a winner emerges, especially on the PC side of things.
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post #9 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 12:15 PM - Thread Starter
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WriteSimple

I was under the impression that all the hybrid disc technologies that have been protyped were BD-ROM DL/DVD SL. Does Blu-Ray really have a solution that gives us Dual Layer(DL) on both HD and DVD content?
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post #10 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 02:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alan Gordon
You've GOT to be joking?! If they don't merge, that's what would cause the HD on DVD market to be sluggish for years!!

~Alan
it's gonna be sluggish for years anyway given the height of DVD popularity, greed of these corporations and expected HD/BRD software pricing.

I mean when i got into DVD collecting i was buying from reel.com $8.88 DVDs.

I expect HD/BRD to be back to "laserdisc pricing"... nevermind the storefront/rental issue. Competing formats will absolutely lower software costs for the immediate future and after that maybe HD/BRD will be obsoleted and never reach the popularity of DVD (see cd "conversions" to sacd/etc.)

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #11 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
What we musn't forget is that technology is evolving at such a rapid pace. The likelyhood that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray achieving the success of DVD is small.
Thank you :)

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #12 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
WriteSimple

I was under the impression that all the hybrid disc technologies that have been protyped were BD-ROM DL/DVD SL. Does Blu-Ray really have a solution that gives us Dual Layer(DL) on both HD and DVD content?
JVC said that they had developed single layer BD and dual-layer DVD hybrid. Read the press release here. They also said in the press release that they are working to make a dual-layer BD + dual-layer DVD hybrid.
Quote:
JVC will forward a proposal to the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) to have the technology accepted as a specification for future commercialization. The company is also working on a Blu-ray/ DVD combo ROM disc with an even larger 58.5GB storage capacity. The proposed disc will be comprised of a 50GB Blu-ray dual layer and 8.5GB DVD dual layer structure.
At the time of JVC's announcement, HD-DVD could only do single-layer HD-DVD and single-layer DVD. Later on, HD-DVD camp came out with single-layer HD-DVD + dual-layer DVD hybrid.

So it took a while for the HD-DVD camp to come up to triple-layer HD-DVD + dual-layer DVD hybrid with a total of 53.5 GB space. And their hybrid disc is a flipper.

BD's hybrid is all on one side. And they haven't added a third layer. Yet.


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post #13 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 03:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by chinch
I mean when i got into DVD collecting i was buying from reel.com $8.88 DVDs.
When I got into DVD collecting, Fox, Paramount and DreamWorks SKG didn't yet release to DVD, and once they did, you couldn't find DVDs from Fox or any Disney company for less than $27, and that was online. You might find a Paramount title for $24.95, if you were lucky and every store that I went to (locally) that sold DVDs (which was two when I started) sold Fox and Disney DVDs for $34.95 up to $40. I got my player in '98.

The only reason that the prices have gone down so much is because of the public embracing DVDs, and I'm quite aware that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will probably be obsolete before enough people will have HDTVs to appreciate HD on DVD, however when you have two competing formats (DVD-Audio & SACD), one of the issues that come into play are public confusion. The fact that each person who has both the money and the inclination to invest in the technology will have a question as to which format is the best and consumer sales staff will not help as they'll be clueless.

Second of all, and the main detriment to having two formats is the fact that the studios have already picked sides, and while if the format goes on long enough, studios may embrace both formats, it will probably be some time (or at least until one side can truly be declared the winner). Until the time comes when there is a dual-format DVD player, it can't truly be considered competition since only people with HD-DVD players can watch movies by the studios releasing movies on HD-DVD, and only people with Blu-Ray players (or PS3) can watch movies released by the studios releasing movies on Blu-Ray.

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post #14 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 04:23 PM
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Quote:
it took a while for the HD-DVD camp to come up to triple-layer HD-DVD + dual-layer DVD hybrid with a total of 53.5 GB space. And their hybrid disc is a flipper.
still not there. You are mixing the new

3L HD-DVD @45GB

and the new 2L HD-DVD/2L DVD that is 30 on one side and 8.5 on the other.

at this time no anouncement of a 45+8.5


plus none of this is about R or RW so we are probably stuck at 15 and 30 for them
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post #15 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 04:31 PM
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It's not that simple.... even when those studios considered Circuit City's "divx" viable, their early titles were discounted too once released ;) Die hard 1-3 for $30 at compusa for example. They also priced high to try to gauge consumers hoping to keep divx viable. LOL. Soon they were broken.

In the meantime i paid over $100 for some LD box set 2 years prior. You won't see such aggresive HD release schedules... there is no incentive especially with a merged format (Warner/Sony won't each try as hard).

Nevermind consumers just bought alot of the back catalog on DVD (ie. star wars set, Indy set, Sopranos, etc, etc) that will be tricky to sell again so soon.

son: Merry xmas dad.... here is the Godfather boxset now on HD.
dad: but... um... i didn't get to watch the set you gave me for fathers day. ;)

Studios will NEED heavy sales of new releases for HD/BRD... which won't happen even if they merge 'cause 90% of buyers (or more) will purchase SD DVDs for many years to come in retail and by rentals.

Dual format HD players will appear long before all studios make a serious effort to release BRD/HD discs. Format wars are a moot point.... Hunt is barking up the wrong tree from '96 here... as HD/BRD stands to never match DVD's popularity, even without format wars for obvious reasons stated already.

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #16 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 04:38 PM
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Paramount has already issued a press release hailing the new HD-DVD disc format developments...

"Paramount welcomes the arrival of these new types of discs that reinforce the next-generation HD DVD solution by offering a potent combination of proven cost efficiency, superior performance and large storage capacity," said Thomas Lesinski, President Paramount Pictures, Worldwide Home Entertainment. "These new developments significantly add to the potential offered by HD DVD, including the freedom to combine a wide range of attractive content on a single disc as well as the addition of more features and functions."


Eric
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post #18 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by chinch
Dual format HD players will appear long before all studios make a serious effort to release BRD/HD discs. Format wars are a moot point.... Hunt is barking up the wrong tree from '96 here... as HD/BRD stands to never match DVD's popularity, even without format wars for obvious reasons stated already.
I'm lost, as it sounds to me like you're saying that Toshiba and Sony shouldn't even try to offer consumers HD on DVD as it will never be as big as DVD. Me, I think it will be a niche market for a while, but I think that with the proper business plan, could at least outsell laserdiscs, especially once the PS3 comes out, and even if it doesn't, could still only be helped from having one format instead of two.

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post #19 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 07:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyP
still not there. You are mixing the new

3L HD-DVD @45GB

and the new 2L HD-DVD/2L DVD that is 30 on one side and 8.5 on the other.

at this time no anouncement of a 45+8.5


plus none of this is about R or RW so we are probably stuck at 15 and 30 for them
Yeah, you're right. I just woke up and re-read the Toshiba press release. It's either triple layer HD-DVD or dual layer HD-DVD + dual-layer DVD. Either way, it's just Toshiba trying to get extra leverage out of their Sony deal, with the help of Warner and Paramount. I mean if it was approved last December, why take so long to make a press release out of it?

I definitely think Sony is going to say that they've got dual-layer BD + dual-layer DVD down pat, that triple or quad layer BD-ROM/E/RW is coming. That'll choke Toshiba's executives.


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post #20 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 08:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by WriteSimple
The added capacity is not really a big deal either. Sony had a BD prototype that increase capacity by 4 layers (I think that means 100 GB) and they said that 8 layers (200 GB) is theoretically possible.
Unless it is in the initial spec, it effectively does not exist for a particular pre-recorded format. To introduce it means introducing a brand new format.

So, unless Sony is going to retort with 4-layer at launch, the expansion ability only is significant for recording.

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post #21 of 41 Old 05-10-2005, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alan Gordon
I'm lost, as it sounds to me like you're saying that Toshiba and Sony shouldn't even try to offer consumers HD on DVD as it will never be as big as DVD. Me, I think it will be a niche market for a while, but I think that with the proper business plan, could at least outsell laserdiscs, especially once the PS3 comes out, and even if it doesn't, could still only be helped from having one format instead of two.
Estimates are that there were three million laserdisc users in the US when DVD was introduced.

DVD, the most sucessful consumer electronic product in history, took 2.5 years to sell three million units (and another two million in the next four months :) )

How long until 3 million for any combination of HD on disc?

Gary


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post #22 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 07:04 AM
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Gary, Toshiba is just showing its two new formats, no one knows if they will be in the specs either
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post #23 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alan Gordon
I'm lost, as it sounds to me like you're saying that Toshiba and Sony shouldn't even try to offer consumers HD on DVD as it will never be as big as DVD. Me, I think it will be a niche market for a while, but I think that with the proper business plan, could at least outsell laserdiscs, especially once the PS3 comes out, and even if it doesn't, could still only be helped from having one format instead of two.

~Alan
I don't mind them offering HD... i'm buying... but it is premature and wont ever match the popularity/sales of DVD IMHO. Even with a "merged format".

I see PS3 as irrelevant to the equasion of hi-def movies sold on discs.

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #24 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 08:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by WriteSimple
I definitely think Sony is going to say that they've got dual-layer BD + dual-layer DVD down pat, that triple or quad layer BD-ROM/E/RW is coming. That'll choke Toshiba's executives.
They had their chance to announce something "big" yesterday at their high profile Media-Tech workshop, and they announced nothing. Nada. Zip. Very disappointing.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
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post #25 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 09:06 AM
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chinch: I 100% disagree. I think if sold right 2G disks will eventually kill DVD
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post #26 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 11:22 AM
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post back in 5-7 years and one of us will be right ;)

HD/BRD could "kill" dvd and yet never realize the sales DVD had. i think alot of the HD zealots (& studios) fail to realize this... and i'm not sure why this is??? It's mind boggling really.

Either way i'm not sweating the details. :)

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #27 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
What we musn't forget is that technology is evolving at such a rapid pace. The likelyhood that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray achieving the success of DVD is small. Verizon and other ISP are rolling out Fibre to the premises promising 50mpbs down and 2mbps upload speeds. Cable modems are 4-7Mbps and rising.

A format war doesn't really matter because our access to content is about to explode with the advent of IP Television. Format wars aren't necessarily bad. Pioneer has a DVD player that handles SACD and DVD-Audio for $129. So even despite the fact that you have two competiting formats in hirez audio it hasn't prevented low cost players from being made.
I agree in principle, but the realities of on-demand are not good enough to allow the
cable companies to kill off DVD even at the present SD, much less HD. Its true that the
cable Cos are fighting bandwidth problems now, but their typical business model has been
to charge the same or higher rate to watch a movie as the premium DVD rental stores,
based on the idea that "they are saving you a trip to the store". The problem is that
outfits like N*flix are pushing the price for DVD rental down to below $1 for movie
enthusiats, who easily go through 10 to 20 movies per month. For example, I emulate
an enthusiast because I have a family, and between us we probally exceed 20 movies
per month.

Put it this way, if your cheap equipment argument is correct, then these are all just
going to be different ways to deliver the product.

I think on demand may eventually win out, but thats more like a 10+ year event.

I want HDTV 'cause I'm nearsighted !
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post #28 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by chinch
it's gonna be sluggish for years anyway given the height of DVD popularity, greed of these corporations and expected HD/BRD software pricing.

I mean when i got into DVD collecting i was buying from reel.com $8.88 DVDs.

I expect HD/BRD to be back to "laserdisc pricing"... nevermind the storefront/rental issue. Competing formats will absolutely lower software costs for the immediate future and after that maybe HD/BRD will be obsoleted and never reach the popularity of DVD (see cd "conversions" to sacd/etc.)
The other tried and tested way to use a new format is to prevent price erosion. HD version
DVDs will be in the high teens, and DVDs will start selling at $5 or less. For one thing,
if the copy protection is actually better (yes, big "if") the studios will have a lot of
incentive to push it.

I want HDTV 'cause I'm nearsighted !
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post #29 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by WriteSimple
Yeah, you're right. I just woke up and re-read the Toshiba press release. It's either triple layer HD-DVD or dual layer HD-DVD + dual-layer DVD. Either way, it's just Toshiba trying to get extra leverage out of their Sony deal, with the help of Warner and Paramount. I mean if it was approved last December, why take so long to make a press release out of it?

I definitely think Sony is going to say that they've got dual-layer BD + dual-layer DVD down pat, that triple or quad layer BD-ROM/E/RW is coming. That'll choke Toshiba's executives.
fuad
Toshiba is posturing, and that's a good sign. People don't posture if they aren't thinking
about making a deal.

I want HDTV 'cause I'm nearsighted !
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post #30 of 41 Old 05-11-2005, 12:32 PM
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Of course, there is one issue that nobody here mentioned.

Sony is in pain, as in business wise.

I want HDTV 'cause I'm nearsighted !
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