HD DVD on the ropes? - Page 3 - AVS Forum
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post #61 of 75 Old 10-25-2005, 04:25 PM - Thread Starter
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So... to get a decent player without glitches and for less than $500 with a "good" library of movies at our disposal, we'll need to wait at least 2 years. Mass market at sub $300 at least 3 years. By then, optical media will not be as necessary. I hate to say this, but Bill Gates makes sense.

Format war my A$$! I want one, and one only!
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post #62 of 75 Old 10-25-2005, 05:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricko
So... to get a decent player without glitches and for less than $500 with a "good" library of movies at our disposal, we'll need to wait at least 2 years. Mass market at sub $300 at least 3 years. By then, optical media will not be as necessary. I hate to say this, but Bill Gates makes sense.
Well, at least the next gen opticals will ready when the SED displays are reasonable :)
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post #63 of 75 Old 10-25-2005, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricko
So... to get a decent player without glitches and for less than $500 with a "good" library of movies at our disposal, we'll need to wait at least 2 years. Mass market at sub $300 at least 3 years. By then, optical media will not be as necessary. I hate to say this, but Bill Gates makes sense.
Optical media not as necessary? Maybe for some folks on forums like this, but not for the general consumer. Especially if they're essentially intent on alienating an "over "X" age" group that generally doesn't take well to technological changes.
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post #64 of 75 Old 10-25-2005, 07:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by srohde
Originally Posted by Ricko
So... to get a decent player without glitches and for less than $500 with a "good" library of movies at our disposal, we'll need to wait at least 2 years. Mass market at sub $300 at least 3 years. By then, optical media will not be as necessary. I hate to say this, but Bill Gates makes sense.

Well, at least the next gen opticals will ready when the SED displays are reasonable :)
I think for these two to happen we will have to wait for about 10 years :D
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post #65 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 06:36 AM
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Still just as wrong. We will be lucky to see 10% of the titles that come out next year in either format. And there will be WILD variations in level of support from each studio for each format. The D-company for example, does not have millions of 6 year olds, waiting for Lion King in HD .
Agree, they are not perfect, but what numbers do you want us to use? Why do you think current market share is so way off?
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Your logic makes no sense to me. Any problems you think hybrid has on this front, BD has in spades! None of those discs play anywhere else even though they are round, and shiny like CD and DVD. Note that all CDs play in DVDs today so the concept that I buy a disc and doesn't play in all the machines, has little precedence. And where it exists, DVD-A/SACD, it has been a total failure.
Are you using the example correctly? CDs play in DVD players, not some DVDs in CD players. The issue that I think might arise is the simple fact that HD-DVD needs to put out the word that it is more then DVD and it is worth buying a 1000$ player (same for BR). The other issue is that I don’t think retailers and customers pay that much attention, and asking them to look on the label to make sure it is HD-DVD and DVD before buying is asking something. Will the HD-DVD only be in a corner? Will the hybrids be with both, DVDs, HD-DVDs? If all movies were hybrid I think it would be a nice feature. But I think there can be some problems with them if not. You are asking consumers to be super aware, don’t just look for DVD (that could be part of HD-DVD). The guy that knows what movie he wants will just go and get it and usually just picks it up fast.
Sorry if I can imagine some person that goes to buy a movie and assumes mistakenly that the HD-DVD he buys will play in his player and then have problems returning it because the package is open.

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You have this backward. I now have TWO copies of the same movie. One side goes bad, I still have the other side! Kill they side on current DVD or BD and you are toast.
Agree, my phrasing might have been a bit ambiguous. I know for myself (and most people I know) that we don’t rush from box to player and back, I might leave a CD/DVD lying around for hours or days. Now I need to make sure both sides are protected and don’t get scratched. If one side gets messed up, what is the benefit of a hybrid. I for one would rather have the savings :)
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We don't need and never ask for exclusivity. You have us confused with some other company . If you read my response carefully, you see that it is not about who is in which camp, but who will really make a business out of this.
You asked for BR exclusivity. If it is not important for HD-DVD then why is it important for BR?
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MS, who cares.
Thanks. Will be happy to make you feel bad this comment in the future . You will be amazed at how many companies like and want our support in their race.
Come on, have you reached the point where you need to brake it down to such a small quote. Yes I think MS support would be good, and it was not an anti MS comment. But let’s be honest. Do you think MS support is the most important one to have? Let me ask you this, let’s say one format had MS support but none of the studios, do you think it would win the war? As for the computer side, there are many SW companies and I am sure someone can make a SW player if MS does not do it.
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Your understanding of these companies is poor. 5 years ago, Sony Music published their entire catalog in our DRM and WMA and would offer it to their own group in OpenMG/ATRAC-3. They go where the money is. There is only so much they will do to help the ailing electronics side.

Not saying the above will happen with BD/Sony, but your idea that this is a holy war, may not hold forever.
I did not say it was a holy war, you were the one that asked about exclusivity of BR companies. My guess is that if any side takes a lead the companies on the other side will join in. The question is will some companies be exclusivity for a few months or a year as long as their format is viable. My guess is yes.
[quote] Yup. But it has been promised to Warner and announced. So they have no choice to do it, or they will lose Warner.

Sorry, my mistake. Still trying to catch up, I had not read it yet when I responded. Did not know at the time that Warner asked for it and got it.

I am guessing other studios can use it, but if it was Warner that asked for it, do you think they will use DL HD-DVD and BD-9 for the same movie? Or most likely BD-9 and HD-DVD-9?
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post #66 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 07:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
You asked for BR exclusivity. If it is not important for HD-DVD then why is it important for BR?
Sorry but what this BR exclusivity mean? As I mentioned, we have never asked for anything exclusive and never ask anyone to take something out. See when VC-1 went into both specs. Folks were free to add competing H.264 just the same. There should be no confusion on this part as our position is 1000% clear. We will never ask BDA for example to remove BD-J. It is absolutely their choice to do so or not.

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I am guessing other studios can use it, but if it was Warner that asked for it, do you think they will use DL HD-DVD and BD-9 for the same movie? Or most likely BD-9 and HD-DVD-9?
We will have to wait and see what decisions they make. But what is clear is that the cost situation is different on each side. They can go from HD-DVD-9 to HD-DVD-15 with little cost increase or IP royality hit. Whereas with the jump from BD-9 to BD-25, there will be noticeable cost difference and elevated risk. The marketing advantage of BD-25 may or may not be there.

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post #67 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 08:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by archibael
1) Depends on the studio.
2) Probably won't know until the players have been on the market for years.
3) You will have the standard audio you have now on DVD (DTS/DD5.1) over SPDIF, and lossless (if provided by the studio) over HDMI. Possibly lossless 7.1 analog audio outs, but depends on manufacturer.
4) Disks are capable. Difficult to predict if player capability will be included initially.
5) Yes.
6) Depends on the studio and title. Really, this is no different than DVD.
7) Probably depends on what you think your "fair use rights" are.
8) Unknown. Ballpark estimates look like $750-1000 for 1st gen players, with the PS3 as a possible spoiler at ~$500. Media will probably be $25-35 at start, but that's wide open at this point. No one's talking.

Downconverted-over-analog will be up to each studio individually, as will picture quality.

I think Disney, at the very least, with their antagonism to downconverted analog and their pursuit of high-quality video, will put out nice-looking discs. Fox, too. IMO, Warner will be spotty, as they'll put at least some content out on 9GB disks, and Sony will be questionable due to the use of MPEG-2 instead of advanced codecs. Paramount and Universal: unknown.

Expect players to be as glitchy as DVD players were; it comes with the territory.

Thanks for posting a reply to my post :)

You see I too have some form of wild *ss guesses on these questions. But that is all it is. My point was not to ask for more to come up with a guess but rather to point out that we have NO REAL IDEA AS TO WHAT WE WILL BE GETTING. :mad:

Zip, nill, nada.

I want to slow down the BS that is being handed out here as fact when at best it is just alot of wild guessing supported by wishful/hopeful thinking followed by mine is bigger than yours. ;)

I want to bring to the fore how little is truly known as to what we will be getting. As well as identify the real issues that must be decided before there will be any format. Because these answers are not available to the general public now and the launch is hyped for close to 6 months from now I am more than a little concerned that we consumers are going to get a lot of nasty tasting stuff shoved down our throats. :eek:

It is easy to post here about how one format or the other is better due to it's list of supporters. But notice how quite it gets when real format functioning questions are asked. :(

Where are the real answers to my questions at? Amir how about some help here now?

I could care less who wins this format war. What I do care about is how good it will look and work not just with new equipment but also existing gear in my customers homes now. There is a long way to go and I think that we won't be real happy when it gets here due to our current state of lack of factual information.

If we are poised to launch in 6 months then these answers are known. The only reason I can come up with why we consumers don't know them is we won't like them. If the answers to my questions are not finalized then the launch is farther out than the talked/guessed about 6 months.

For us to get what we want and need then we should hold these companies to doing what WE want.

We need to stay on task. Don't allow our focus to be shifted to stupid stuff. Force these companies to tell exactly what they are going to give us . If they don't want to tell us then let these guessing games/threads go silent.

There are reasons why M$ has representation here and the BD does not. If you are in control you don't need to hype your position trying to sway public opinion. You know you are in control and will get ALL you want.

We want and need truthful answers "Wheres the beef?" :confused:

I know others want answers too. Resist the smoke screen of "double speak".

It's sad it needs to come to this. Come on Sony/Toshiba "Throw us a bone here people"! :mad:

It's past time for tough talk!

Thanks,
Allen
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post #68 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 09:04 AM
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Sorry for the late reply. I have been travelling....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Allen Fleener
1) Will I be able to see full resolution HD through the analog componate outputs?
Yes at least on some of the titles. Unclearly about all and for how long.

Quote:
2) Will the copyright protection cause the players to hang up or have flakey/denied playback?
No. Of course, as with any product, early ones may have bugs here and there. But copy protection stuff will work. Any glitches would be due to renewal, etc if the system is broken.

Quote:
3) Will we have full resolution surround sound at launch? How will we have this played back on existing audio gear?
Can you clarify on what you mean full-resolution?

For current audio gear, you would be using the backward compatible AC-3/DTS streams. To get higher fidelity, you need new gear or multi-channel analog out solution. Yes, this transition will take time.

Note that there are complications here with audio mixing for interactivity. They player would have to do this and as such, it would need to output PCM or re-encode.

Quote:
4) Will we be able to watch in full 1920X1080P?
The specs that I see for CE players on both comps is 1080i. PCs of course, will be 1080p. PS3 I don't know. Yes, it has HDMI but if there is huge concern in CE companies over "obsoleting" their current 1080i only displays. Yes, it is not rational as the device can be set to either output I am sure. But the CE world is sleep at the helm on this. I/we are pushing hard to fix. But the problem exists in both camps.

Quote:
5) Will these players support multi- layer play back and recording?
Players can't record :). But yes, there will be combo machines and ROM-only players, especially on HD DVD side. BD side may only be recordable since PS3 basically zeros out business for BD ROM-only players (at least in the mind of BD CE vendors it seems).

Quote:
6) Will the movie titles be reference quality both audio and video?
Probably but like you, I will wait to see before saying it will happen. But even if early titles don't qualify, companies have ample opportunity to do these later as space and resolution are not issues for either format. Leave out the extras and you have wonderful quality on both HD DVD-30 and BD-25.

Quote:
7) How will MC/MMC work and will I be able to keep my fair use rights?
Please don't use such terms with me because I can't answer them :). Fair use has different meaning to different people.

But yes, we are fighting hard for you to have the right to make copies of your movies. The copies can cost you nothing, or a lot of the studio doesn't want you to really have the copy. Fortunately, most want you to have such copy.

Quote:
8) How much will the players and disks cost?
Too little data to comment beyond what I have already done.

Amir
P.S. Very good questions!

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post #69 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Allen Fleener
Thanks for posting a reply to my post :)

You see I too have some form of wild *ss guesses on these questions. But that is all it is. My point was not to ask for more to come up with a guess but rather to point out that we have NO REAL IDEA AS TO WHAT WE WILL BE GETTING. :mad:
They weren't exactly guesses, as I have been paying attention to this for a long time, and I'm "in the biz". They were real answers, and you'll notice Amir's were not appreciably different from mine.

I hope you'll accept his, at least, as "official".

I do not speak officially in any sense for
Intel Corp., Technology Manufacturing Group
but I do work there.
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post #70 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 12:08 PM
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I appreciate the posts that answered my questions. :)

Amir a special thanks to you!

Ok I feel a bit better but as the saying goes I'll believe it when I see it. :)

Just kidding. Well sort of.

archibael:

I have no idea of what you do for a living as your info is not given in your profile. :(

Amir on the other hand is known to be involved heavily in the process and is to be commended for putting up with everyone here. I know to take all info with a "grain of salt".

I too am "in the business" as can be seen in my Sig just not in this HD-DVD business. I like you have been following with more than a little interest thus the reason for my questions.

Take care.

Thanks,
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post #71 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 12:22 PM
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Sorry, I should alter my profile. It's vaguely common knowledge on this board that I work for Intel, but you're right. I should be more explicit.

I do not speak officially in any sense for
Intel Corp., Technology Manufacturing Group
but I do work there.
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post #72 of 75 Old 10-26-2005, 05:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
Here are the things we are confident about:

1. There is no risk on the HD DVD technology side. Not in disc manufacturing. Not in DVD manufacturing. Not in cost reduction. Not in strong software support (from us).
Are you kidding me? iHD should be listed in the dictionary under "risk". Totally unproven. No commercial tools. No compliance tests. No installed base. No third-party vendors. No non-Windows support. I can't wait to see my first HD-DVD Blue Screen of Death. I suspect it'll be within five minutes of putting in my first iHD-enabled disc!

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
3. Hybrid is there from day one and some titles if not all, will come to market that way. This means that people may buy HD DVD titles even if they don’t have an HD DVD player! BD has nothing here.
BD has announced hybrid support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
4. HD DVD studios made an early commitment to titles there and we have been working with them to get these to market. Little activity exists on BD side since the disc process is not finished. Tools are not there (e.g. BD-J), BD+ is still being worked, etc.
Untrue. There are dozens of Java and MHP development tools, all of which are relevant to BD-J development. How many iHD tools are there?

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
6. We are building a great HD DVD player for Windows. We have everything we need to know, have designed Vista from scratch to support its features such as AACS and iHD. We have no unknowns.
And we should trust Microsoft to build a better player than Sonic, Nero, InterVideo, and CyberLink (all of whom have announced BD support) why? Anyone out there think Microsoft has a better DVD player on Windows than the third-parties?

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
9. Some BD studios may opt for BD-9 to save money, reduce risk, play lip service and collect any incentives they have to “publish in BD.†So BD may get stuck with capacity that is far less than what HD DVD can offer.
Why is that "stuck with"? A company may use BD-9 because that makes sense. When it makes sense to utilize more capacity they'll use BD-25 or 50. Why is 9GB support "stuck" on BD and a feature on HD-DVD?

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post #73 of 75 Old 10-27-2005, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Talkstr8t
I can't wait to see my first HD-DVD Blue Screen of Death. I suspect it'll be within five minutes of putting in my first iHD-enabled disc!
Considering all HD-DVDs with be authored with iHD, let's hope you're wrong. :)

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Originally Posted by Talkstr8t
BD has announced hybrid support.
Yes, and they've even gotten around to giving hyrbid book-level status. Unfortunately, it's not predisposed to easy fabrication, and no replication line equipment vendor has said word one about developing the line changes necessary to even support Type 2 BD/DVD fabrication. And as an insider, you've surely seen the initial backwards compliance test results and BD-ROM non-compliance data that all but make talk of replication moot. The Type 2 hybrid is a non-starter.

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Originally Posted by Talkstr8t
There are dozens of Java and MHP development tools, all of which are relevant to BD-J development. How many iHD tools are there?
Let's return to the rare air that is DVD authoring, since that's really all that matters here in this discussion.

How's Sonic doing on their BD-J support?

They *own* the DVD authoring market (80% share), and they've already demonstrated a fully functional beta version of their iHD-capable HD-DVD suite with a commited shipping timeframe. Not so with BD-J. Heck, one of their mid-level execs made the horrific error of implying at AES in NYC that their delivery of BD-J support wasn't even a given at this point. Nice.

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post #74 of 75 Old 10-27-2005, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians
And as an insider, you've surely seen the initial backwards compliance test results and BD-ROM non-compliance data that all but make talk of replication moot. The Type 2 hybrid is a non-starter.
Well, I may have seen it, but my eyes rolled back in my head with non-comprehension. I'm a software / middleware guy, not an optical media guy.

Quote:
Let's return to the rare air that is DVD authoring, since that's really all that matters here in this discussion.

How's Sonic doing on their BD-J support? They *own* the DVD authoring market (80% share), and they've already demonstrated a fully functional beta version of their iHD-capable HD-DVD suite with a commited shipping timeframe. Not so with BD-J. Heck, one of their mid-level execs made the horrific error of implying at AES in NYC that their delivery of BD-J support wasn't even a given at this point. Nice.
Based on what I hear in the hallways (of BDA meetings, not Sonic), they are progressing quite well. While they are undoubtedly more comfortable with iHD, the truth is BD-J gives them a much richer palette to build upon. Take today's (consumer) DVD authoring tools. They are all fairly similar, given there's a very finite set of things the final format can handle. It's hard to differentiate a tool other than better UI / more clip-art, etc. (I understand professional tools like Scenarist go well beyond a consumer tool, but my analogy still applies.) iHD provides more capability, but still tightly defined by the spec. With BD-J they can create a limitless number of libraries or modules which support just about anything. It could become similar to the plug-in market for Photoshop, enabling a vast aftermarket opportunity.

Standard Sonic BD-J press release is here , the relevant quote is:

Quote:
â€Support for advanced interactivity will be crucial to the success of new high-definition formats like BD,†said Rolf Hartley, senior vice president and general manager of Sonic’s professional products group. “Sonic is showing content providers how BD-J can take viewers beyond simple games and bonus features to bring them into a new era where interactivity is designed into the core storytelling experience. We’re also giving title developers a taste of the kinds of advanced features that Sonic intends to support in its HD-ready tools, so that HDAA members and others can begin thinking now about how best to prepare for the exciting title creation opportunities offered by BD.â€
Yes, I note there's actually no commitment in that paragraph to deliver a BD-J tool, but they clearly intend to. No doubt it will take them longer to deliver than an iHD tool, although they can start with the vast Eclipse and NetBeans open source developer communities.

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post #75 of 75 Old 10-27-2005, 02:17 PM
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I'm willing to bet that a free Eclipse plugin will exist at some point after the public gets its hands on the BD-J spec, just like there are free (multiple) MHP environments floating around today. I'm still waiting for Sonic, Ulead, et al, to come up with something as slick as iDVD5. The clipart/templates that ship with PC based authoring tools suck-ass for some reason.
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