Great article on the current state of the hi-def war - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 02:55 PM - Thread Starter
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Good read and interesting perspective:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm
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post #2 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:03 PM
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That was written by a member of this forum, and fails to mention:

* That the majority of PS3 owners bought the PS3 for games, not movies
* That ALL X360 HD DVD add-on owners are soley for HD DVD movies
* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them
* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD
* Did not mention the In-Movie-Experience and U-Control that is winning HD DVD fans
* Failed to underscore that though Blu-Ray has been improving, HD DVD has been consistently better and has won High-Def Digest's Best Of 2006 list
* Did not note that although BD50 discs have begun shipping, they have yet to prove to be any better than HD30 since PQ still lags behind or, at best, only matches HD DVD

The writer of the article is admittedly biased towards Blu-Ray.

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post #3 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HD_Lantern View Post

Great article on the current state of the hi-def war

Wow ... you have an extremely low bar for greatness ...
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post #4 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:25 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Wow ... you have an extremely low bar for greatness ...

Although the article is predicting a blu-ray win - it does summarize alot of recent developments and makes some good points. Although I just bought at A2, I am also concerned about the lack of new content announced for HD-DVD versus Blu-ray. Hopefully CES will have some Toshiba announcements to change the current landscape.
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post #5 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:38 PM
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More Great News for Blu Ray!

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #6 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:39 PM
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BD has been making plenty of title announcements prior to CES (and not really holding any back for a CES). I think that will probably be it for them. Maybe a few more announcements at the actual show along with some more "premium" priced players. Or maybe "gasp" a cheaper than $1000 stand alone player too.

I'm guessing that the HD DVD title announcements have slowed b/c they wanted to make a bigger splash at CES. I expect lots of title announcements and maybe a few new hardware announcements (and maybe a price drop).

It just makes sense. HD DVD production of discs wouldn't just slow down for no reason( especially since they are still outselling BD). i just think they haven't been announcing them for the dramatic effect it will cause at CES. Good strategy in my book. Announce more titles than BD, announce 1 or 2 new hardware manufacturers, and announce a price drop on something. Oh yeah, announce that FW upgrade that activates DTS-HD MA and have the only players that decode ALL new audio codecs! Also announce focusing more on getting HD DVD displayed at B&M stores and it will be a great CES for HD DVD. Sounds good!

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post #7 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:44 PM
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If they don't promise more movies fast and somebody else who will put their name on a HD DVD player, HD DVD is cooked.

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #8 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vurbano View Post

Why would anyone read anything from that boob Swanni's website?

Becasue they're pro Blu ray??

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #9 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 04:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FoolintheRain View Post

BD has been making plenty of title announcements prior to CES (and not really holding any back for a CES). I think that will probably be it for them. Maybe a few more announcements at the actual show along with some more "premium" priced players. Or maybe "gasp" a cheaper than $1000 stand alone player too.

I'm guessing that the HD DVD title announcements have slowed b/c they wanted to make a bigger splash at CES. I expect lots of title announcements and maybe a few new hardware announcements (and maybe a price drop).

It just makes sense. HD DVD production of discs wouldn't just slow down for no reason( especially since they are still outselling BD). i just think they haven't been announcing them for the dramatic effect it will cause at CES. Good strategy in my book. Announce more titles than BD, announce 1 or 2 new hardware manufacturers, and announce a price drop on something. Oh yeah, announce that FW upgrade that activates DTS-HD MA and have the only players that decode ALL new audio codecs! Also announce focusing more on getting HD DVD displayed at B&M stores and it will be a great CES for HD DVD. Sounds good!

The problem with this is that 2 of the 3 studios supporting HD DVD also support Blu-ray, and both have been saying that they plan equal treatment.

For example, if Paramount announces 10 HD DVD titles at CES, everyone would expect them to announce the same 10 for Blu-ray. Similary for Warners.

Universal is the only exclusive HD DVD studio. But, if you look at the future announcements, Universal is already pretty well represented. It is Warners and Paramount that have slowed down to a crawl in recent weeks.

One of my reference sites for announcements is highdefdigest.com. Take a look and see what the situation is.

My point is that HD DVD needs to pick up some additional studio support amongst the currently exclusive Blu-ray studios.
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post #10 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 04:14 PM
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I thought it was a very well written article. But I hope that HD DVD survives and thrives.
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post #11 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 04:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

If they don't promise more movies fast and somebody else who will put their name on a HD DVD player, HD DVD is cooked.


We've heard all of this and more for the past year. I think it's amazing that the BD guys still underestimate HD DVD.

By the way, Happy New Year to all! I probably won't be around for the next 24 hours or so!
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post #12 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidnightWatcher View Post

That was written by a member of this forum, and fails to mention:

* That the majority of PS3 owners bought the PS3 for games, not movies
* That ALL X360 HD DVD add-on owners are soley for HD DVD movies
* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them
* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD
* Did not mention the In-Movie-Experience and U-Control that is winning HD DVD fans
* Failed to underscore that though Blu-Ray has been improving, HD DVD has been consistently better and has won High-Def Digest's Best Of 2006 list
* Did not note that although BD50 discs have begun shipping, they have yet to prove to be any better than HD30 since PQ still lags behind or, at best, only matches HD DVD

The writer of the article is admittedly biased towards Blu-Ray.

I mentioned some of these things others not. Here are some notes.

1. "Toshiba HD DVD players sell out...". I have seen them sitting in stores in many cases. Frys had the same 4 units (I checked the serials) for over a month.
2. "Does not note that Blu-ray disc sales have always lagged..." I referred to the fact that Blu-ray was behind several times and in a number of ways. In fact, I said that Blu-ray would only catch up in titles by the end of January.
3. "In-Movie etc.": Admittedly, I don't care about these things very much, and a number of other people don't either. It will be a while before this shakes out.
4. "Failed to underscore ...": Thought that was very clear in several places.
5. "Did not note that althought BD50 discs have begun...": I mentioned very explicitly that I didn't think that Blu-ray had proven superiority yet.

BTW I do believe that recent titles from both formats are very similar. I reject the idea that one format has established any claim to superiority at this point based on PQ.

I would not say that I am "biased" toward Blu-ray. I would say that I agree with the many technologists who have said that Blu-ray has better specifications and more future potential.

I thought that I was more than fair to HD DVD in a number of ways.

The format war has not only divided us, it has also turned off the customers. As much as anything, I am hoping that the scions of these industries take charge and end the war one way or another.
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post #13 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by thebland View Post

More Great News for Blu Ray!

There you are!

I was waiting to see when you would issue your battle cry again!

KEEP BOTH FORMATS ALIVE!
This translates to better PQ & AQ.
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post #14 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 06:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidnightWatcher View Post

The writer of the article is admittedly biased towards Blu-Ray.

Hmmm, by the look of your signature and your recent posts, you make the OP's bias level look pretty tame. Time for a look in the mirror.
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post #15 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by builty View Post

Hmmm, by the look of your signature and your recent posts, you make the OP's bias level look pretty tame. Time for a look in the mirror.

No need to at all. I heavily favour HD DVD and do not try to hide it. My point was that if he wanted to write a well-rounded article (and he was almost there) then those points could have also been clearly made.

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post #16 of 38 Old 12-31-2006, 11:40 PM
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posted by mistake so it was deleted.
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post #17 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 01:16 AM
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HD_Lantern? LOL, show us the light, wise one.

I love it when someone creates an account just to air-drop some BR propaganda. Always good.
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post #18 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 01:23 AM
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Just read this article....it is easily the most truly objective and informed article on the format war I've read in quite a while...IMO, anyone who says otherwise is looking at the world through fanclown glasses.

By the way, think twice before you paint me with your BD bias brush...I have a good laugh at the expense of the fanatical fanboys on both sides of this forum daily.

Disclaimer: Totally biased RS1 fanclown...cannot be relied upon for any type of objectivity regarding same. You have been warned.
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post #19 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 08:28 AM
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Today's Amazon numbers:

The new Toshiba A2 Amazon rank is #71
The 360 add-on is #124

The Sony BR Ranked #2663
The Sammy BR Ranked #1153.

There was no bump in BR titles sold when the PS3 came out.

I think it's pretty fair opinion article though. He basically says, let's see what comes out at CES and then we'll really know what 2007 holds for both camps. He's probably right.

Still, regular DVD's will rule the roost (heck, they only recently overtook VHS) for a while.
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post #20 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 09:42 AM
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What is the combined Panny + Sony + Phillips + Samsung (all BD players) v. Hd-A2 (the only current Hd DVD PLAYER) numbers since the A2's release?

This would give a decent idea of which format (rather than player) is doing better relative to hardware sales.

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #21 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

What is the combined Panny + Sony + Phillips + Samsung (all BD players) v. Hd-A2 (the only current Hd DVD PLAYER) numbers since the A2's release?

This would give a decent idea of which format (rather than player) is doing better relative to hardware sales.

Good point, but you left out the RCA.

Also, you'd never be able to solve the Xbox 360 vs. PS3 sales issue. You could almost lump the 360 add-on in with HD DVD players (since it only has one purpose), but I see no effective way to determine how many PS3s are really being used for movie viewing. Frankly, I'd love to see the 360 add-on sales numbers compared to the rest of the players - this would probably be the best indicator of the game console penetration into the HT market.....oh, well.

I don't think we'll really know which way the hardware wind is blowing until it's too late.
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post #22 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 11:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

What is the combined Panny + Sony + Phillips + Samsung (all BD players) v. Hd-A2 (the only current Hd DVD PLAYER) numbers since the A2's release?

This would give a decent idea of which format (rather than player) is doing better relative to hardware sales.

Dont be so sarcastic. Since the A2 Release?! I can tell you that the answer would favor the A2 in my city. I always ask the retailers that are in my city questions like that.
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post #23 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 11:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MauneyM View Post

Good point, but you left out the RCA.

Also, you'd never be able to solve the Xbox 360 vs. PS3 sales issue. You could almost lump the 360 add-on in with HD DVD players (since it only has one purpose), but I see no effective way to determine how many PS3s are really being used for movie viewing. Frankly, I'd love to see the 360 add-on sales numbers compared to the rest of the players - this would probably be the best indicator of the game console penetration into the HT market.....oh, well.

I don't think we'll really know which way the hardware wind is blowing until it's too late.


Too many variables with the game systems.

I'd like to know this....

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #24 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by vancouver View Post

Dont be so sarcastic. Since the A2 Release?! I can tell you that the answer would favor the A2 in my city. I always ask the retailers that are in my city questions like that.

Yes...since the A2 release. To be fair. Just a snapshot of the state of affairs in hardware sales. Not difficult to understand that it is fair and would only give data from the last 3 weeks and before Christmas). If anything it might favor Tosh a bit as they got a nice bump from the new player and as the HD-A1 was so scarce in the month before its release.

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #25 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

What is the combined Panny + Sony + Phillips + Samsung (all BD players) v. Hd-A2 (the only current Hd DVD PLAYER) numbers since the A2's release?

This would give a decent idea of which format (rather than player) is doing better relative to hardware sales.

Jeff, let's throw some completely made up numbers out there. Total fiction for the sake of argument.

Let's pretend that Toshiba has sold 100,000 HD DVD player. Meanwhile Panasonic, Sony, Philips, and Samsung have each sold 30,000 Blu-ray players.

On the one hand you can say, "Great news for Blu-ray! Combined together, Blu-ray players outsold HD DVD players!".

On the other hand, no Blu-ray manufacturer is able to sell more than 1/3 the number of players that Toshiba has, and (even with their inflated MSRPs) each company's income lags well behind Toshiba's. The Blu-ray companies realize there is little profit in this for them and little incentive to continue supporting Blu-ray. That would be pretty bad news for Blu-ray, wouldn't it?

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post #26 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 12:02 PM
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Well, the BD manufacturers are competing against each other so their sales will be appropriately cannabalized. Tosh is the only current player available (unsure if the RCA is still around).

It is too bad there is no hard data to reduce the conjecture.

Odds are if the Blu Ray manufactuers are selling 1/3 as many players as HD DVD, they may be more profitable...but who knows.

There are more than a handful of [op amps] that sound so good that most designers want to be using them as opposed to discreet transistors. Dave Reich, Theta 2009
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post #27 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vancouver View Post

Dont be so sarcastic. Since the A2 Release?! I can tell you that the answer would favor the A2 in my city. I always ask the retailers that are in my city questions like that.

Yes, he can shill all he wants about the dedicated blu ray players but their total sales are likely far below the A1,XA1,A2. The only thing keeping blu ray alive is the PS3 and the perceptions created by that. I laugh at the other blu ray shillers thinking their dedicated players are doing anything to prop up what would have been a shortly dead format had not the PS3 created a perception of interest in the format and provided its only hope for future existence.
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post #28 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 01:00 PM
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Well, the BD manufacturers are competing against each other so their sales will be appropriately cannabalized.

And this is the real amazing thing about it all. BD production has competition from all sides, yet, its STILL 2-3 times the price of HD-DVD?? That doesn't make sense? Competition should drive prices DOWN......ie, with no other HD-DVD manufacturer around, Tosh should have a monopoly on the whole game, and charge through the roof. Yet, they are 1/2 to 1/3 the price. BD pricing scheme makes absolutely no sense.

In terms of LFE, size does matter!
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post #29 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

Yes, he can shill all he wants about the dedicated blu ray players but their total sales are likely far below the A1,XA1,A2. The only thing keeping blu ray alive is the PS3 and the perceptions created by that. I laugh at the other blu ray shillers thinking their dedicated players are doing anything to prop up what would have been a shortly dead format had not the PS3 created a perception of interest in the format and provided its only hope for future existence.

That's probably the best argument I've read in regard to the format wars in this forum today. The PS3 certainly has put a perception out there and what it's true impact is is unknown until someone releases REAL sales numbers (I have to groan every time someone has to stick in Amazon.com sales rankings into a thread). I liked one article on the format war going to one retailer for anecdotal evidence that the PS3 has given a shot of adrenaline to Blu-Ray sales and having that retailer state that HD-DVD used to outsell Blu-Ray by a 4:1 ratio and now it's down to 3:1.

I can't help but think that the PS3 has done something to boost Blu-Ray sales. How can it not? Shoot, I may be responsible for a percentage point alone! But, if the PS3 is the format's savior, I will be in shock.

And why are these sales numbers being kept under wraps? You'd think that whoever is "winning" would be boasting. Unless it's so close that both sides want to keep quiet....
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post #30 of 38 Old 01-01-2007, 01:35 PM
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Quote:


And why are these sales numbers being kept under wraps? You'd think that whoever is "winning" would be boasting.

Too soon to get holiday numbers.

Low impact if released this or last holiday week.

Much higher impact is released during the CES Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Jan 8-11th.

Waiting for more concrete sales numbers compiled by unbiased sources.

Someone knows and there afraid to say.

Someone knows and they like the numbers and they are waiting for a better time to say it.

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