Fuh Yuan to make 2M HD-DVD players for Walmart; Wal-Mart denies rumor - Page 25 - AVS Forum
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post #721 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Dahlsim View Post

Well if it ends up in a Hollywood vs Walmart battle, I know where I'd put my money...

Its not a potential battle. Its potential win-win synergy. Hollywood sells more movies by having content on HD-DVD. Walmart sells HD-DVD players and has more content to sell. Win-Win.
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post #722 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

OK, that settles it...

Wal-Mart gross margin: 23%

300 million dollars / 2 million players = $150 per player. With a price of $199.99, that's $49.99 per unit, with a gross margin of 25%.

The initial sales price will likely be $199.99 but knowing Wallmart it will move down quickly. Wallmart doesn't just buy products. With buying power > then some 1st world nations it is deeply invested in the supply chain at all levels.

They design contracts that give them options to exercise that bring the costs down. For example is the price of the blue diode right now is say $30 when it drops to $20 they get a $10 reduction in the wholesale price of the product. For a $300 million contract they will have a team going over the books of all of the component costs of their supplier. They will take the units apart and determine their own build cost to make sure the supplier is playing fair. If one of the suppliers supplier (i.e broadcom) tries to hold out. Wallmart will reach out to them and "remind" them of the # of units they indirectly sell for them to bring that cost down. As HD DVD get cheaper to make they will leverage their average costs downward. They don't wait for a new contract like most other stores would. All of this will be built into the contract from the beginning. Its not just buying power but buying leverage that allows Wallmart to undercut their competitors.

Before this contract is done (say early 2008) they will be shopping a larger contract say 5 million units / year to competitors. They will use the bids of competitors to drive down the whole sale price of the current and existing contracts. "i.e your competitor will build us 5 million units for $112 and our current contract is now $138 / unit. We wish to renegotiate the remaining 1.1 million units on our existing contract to $120/unit and we expand the contract to a total of 6 million units through end of 2009". If the supplier says no then they have basically guaranteed the next contract will go to another supplier.

Note the numbers I used are just examples to give you an idea of the leverage WM uses on its competitors to drive prices down. Many people mistakenly think of Wallmart as a cheap Bestbuy but they have a radically different business model. Wallmart having multiple HD DVD players ranging from $99 to $250 by middle of 2009 would not be completely out of the ordinary. Of course all of this assume that the initial order will sell well, have low returns, high customer satisfaction, and result in large numbers of movie sales. If it doesn't Wallmart will drop HD DVD like a bad habit.
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post #723 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

On a general note, I don't want to conflict Kosty's info, but I think we will see these players showing up on Wal-Mart shelves by August.

Kosty's source told him they would go into FULL production in August. However, I believe they will be producing units with limited production up until that point. Basically, the factory is built, but it is not fully staffed (it consists of a skelton work force). They are giving themselves 3.5 months to get 100% staffed and trained.

However, when they are 50% staffed and trained, I don't believe they will just pay those workers to stand around making nothing all daym waiting for the other half of the workforce. So the Wal-Mart players should start coming off the line by the end of May, but in limited quantities.

If you say a 50% work force in place by the end of May, they you may get close to 50% of production capacity, depending on the distribution of staff. If this is an average size plant for the area, it could make 150k units per month, or at 50% capacity, 75k units per month.

So by the end of June, I would say there will have already been 80-100k units built. They won't just warehouse these in China (Wal-Mart would have more warehouse space to do that). So those units will go on a boat for the US by the end of June. 30-45 days later they should be on Wal-Mart trucks headed for wherever Wal-Mart wants them to go.

I don't think Wal-Mart will just sit on them. Why tie up your money that way? So I think they will head out to stores, but perhaps a limited number of stores, since there is a limited quantity available.

So while FULL production may not start until August, I think we will see limited quantities on store shelves by August (probably the end of August), with all stores having a good inventory by the end of October.

To clarify, I think that is certain a possibility.

My sources have told me that full or mass production will be in August, but that dos not conflict with some on the street in Wal-Mart before that.

Wal-Mart will probably roll these out in some test stores first, just as it has been test marketing some Toshiba HD A2's in some markets now.

I now have Toshiba sources telling me they have know about this deal for a while and that they expect the MSRP to be below $299 with the street prices effectively $199 or lower by the 4th quarter.

Wal-Mart will probably continue to sell the PS3 and may carry other Blu-ray players based on their price points and sales performance.

These Chinese HD DVD players will probably replace in effect or compete with Wal-Marts higher priced DVD players or upconverting DVD players.

Prices in the store will drop as time goes on. They also have some obvious potential as holiday season door busters.

The initial pricing and initial sales point will be higher than they will be sold at soon after launch, but for MSRP establishment and advertising purposes they probably need to be sold for a short time at full MSRP is Wal-Mart if the single source retailer.

In short, these may very well be at some Wal-Marts in August at a higher price than they will be sold during the 4th quarter. Expect them to be $100 to $150 less than the HD A2 when they are sold on mass.

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post #724 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by namechamps View Post

The initial sales price will likely be $199.99 but knowing Wallmart it will move down quickly. Wallmart doesn't just buy products. With buying power > then some 1st world nations it is deeply invested in the supply chain at all levels.

Yes, I agree. I didn't mean to suggest that $199.99 will be the price throughout the life of the deal. My point is that $199.99 is likely the ballpark price as soon as Wal-Mart starts selling, not the $299 some people are posting.

$299 IMO would lessen the impact tremendously. $199 would have quite a large impact, even if Toshiba standalones were going for $279 by then, street.

EDIT:

Kosty seems to corroborate my $199.99 price for 2007, albeit possibly not right in the summer at launch.


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post #725 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I think Hollywood needs to sell in Asia/EU. Thats where the growth comes from ... US market is saturated.

They're going to have to do something about the massive amount of pirating that's taking place in China before that will happen.

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post #726 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by hodges69 View Post

Help me with a geography question here.....Is'nt Columbia still the capital of SC???

At least that's what I was taught in grammer school many years ago...If so,when was it moved to Lexington,the city listed in your profile??

Lexington is a suburb of Columbia. The Capitol building, legislature, Gov. mansion are all 10 minutes from my house. There is one Walmart in Lexington, and 5 more distributed around Columbia, all within 30 minutes of my house.
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post #727 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Yes, I agree. I didn't mean to suggest that $199.99 will be the price throughout the life of the deal. My point is that $199.99 is likely the ballpark price as soon as Wal-Mart starts selling, not the $299 some people are posting.

$299 IMO would lessen the impact tremendously. $199 would have quite a large impact, even if Toshiba standalones were going for $279 by then, street.

For advertising purposes and establishment of a retail price point, Wal-Mart may introduce the model at $299 during the summer.

They can then drop the price an do things like advertise $100 off when they sell it for $199 or less later in the year.

There are legal issues if you advertise a consumer product that hs never been attempted to be sold at the MSRP. Its even more touchy if only one retailer is involved.

So if it launches at $299, don't panic, that my only be for precedent reasons to establish the MSRP. The anticipated sales price may be below that.

Wal-Mart will price these things to maximize sales and to sell what they buy.

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post #728 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by turansformer View Post

They're going to have to do something about the massive amount of pirating that's taking place in China before that will happen.

China isn't the only country in Asia.

More importantly, hollywood knows that even if the piracy goes to zero tomorrow, they won't be selling many dvds at the current prices. Think about it - for a small fraction of the "lost" sales in bribes (I mean support for anti-piracy programs), piracy can be wiped out. And yet they don't do it ...
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post #729 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

For advertising purposes and establishment of a retail price point, Wal-Mart may introduce the model at $299 during the summer.

They can then drop the price an do things like advertise $100 off when they sell it for $199 or less later in the year.

There are legal issues if you advertise a consumer product that hs never been attempted to be sold at the MSRP. Its even more touchy if only one retailer is involved.

So if it launches at $299, don't panic, that my only be for precedent reasons to establish the MSRP. The anticipated sales price may be below that.

Wal-Mart will price these things to maximize sales and to sell what they buy.

Do they even have to have an official MSRP? I know many products do not have an MSRPs at all these days.

In any case, what you say makes sense, esp. since Toshiba's MSRP is $399. However, I'd say an MSRP of $249 would be more palatable, esp. if Toshiba decides to drop its MSRP for the fall to say $349 (either on the A2 or else on a new player).


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post #730 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Kosty seems to corroborate my $199.99 price for 2007, albeit possibly not right in the summer at launch.

Yep. MAybe even below that by Christmas.

Wal-Mart will lower the price until they are flying off the shelves.

Step right up, get your next generation high definition DVD player now.

It plays those next generation HD DVDs and it automaticlly up-converts your existing DVD collection to near HD quality. It also plays all your audio CD's.

Buy a new HD DVD player for your HD TV.

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post #731 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:22 PM
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Thanks for the information, Kosty. Very encouraging.
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post #732 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:28 PM
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Almost all nationally distributed products have a manufacturers suggested retail price, even though it may not be advertised or promoted in a retail chain store.

If this is a store brand, its good to have sold it somewhere at a higher price for some period of time in order to justify the value of the sale or promotion. It may not be called the MSRP if only on retailer is carrying it in stock.

But wnorris's early production runs that might be first on the street would do nicely in this regard. Basically its a legal constraint on what you can say in advertising. You can't say something is $100 off, if it was never sold at that price or if no MSRP was given by the manufacturer. But its a small point. Wal-Mart will drop the price to what is best for sales.

If the cost calculations are correct Wal-Mart has a lot of room to adjust the price point.

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post #733 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by rickforrest View Post

Except that they didn't buy ANY for the 6 Walmart stores in my town, which is the capital of South Carolina. I've never seen a Blu-ray player in any of those stores, and I only saw a couple of RCA Toshiba clones in one of the stores.

Which means they never really pushed either format.

And if you never saw them then they were never there! I never said or implied they pushed one format or the other. Just stating they did sell BD players in some, maybe all stores. We really don't know since none of us do inventory for Walmart.
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post #734 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Officer Steve View Post

More wisdom from a die hard joe 6 pack wal-mart shopper:

1. I would like to buy one now.

2. Will it upscale standard dvds? If so, people will catch on to this and like it.

3. These bad boys will be on a wooden pallet in the center of one of the larger aisles around the holidays. People will be snapping them up like the $19.99 apex of which i own two. BTW, the apex play anything.

4. My buddies Sony standard dvd, won't play some new movies, thanks to sony's drm.

5. Don't fool yourself, j6p has a 60" hidef toshiba sitting in his living room w/ 3 hdmi hookups.

6. Long live Shiner beer, Dixie tattoos, hi def football, deer season and Wal-mart!

Please forward this post to Thebland.
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post #735 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by namechamps View Post

The initial sales price will likely be $199.99 but knowing Wallmart it will move down quickly. Wallmart doesn't just buy products. With buying power > then some 1st world nations it is deeply invested in the supply chain at all levels.

They design contracts that give them options to exercise that bring the costs down. For example is the price of the blue diode right now is say $30 when it drops to $20 they get a $10 reduction in the wholesale price of the product. For a $300 million contract they will have a team going over the books of all of the component costs of their supplier. They will take the units apart and determine their own build cost to make sure the supplier is playing fair. If one of the suppliers supplier (i.e broadcom) tries to hold out. Wallmart will reach out to them and "remind" them of the # of units they indirectly sell for them to bring that cost down. As HD DVD get cheaper to make they will leverage their average costs downward. They don't wait for a new contract like most other stores would. All of this will be built into the contract from the beginning. Its not just buying power but buying leverage that allows Wallmart to undercut their competitors.

Before this contract is done (say early 2008) they will be shopping a larger contract say 5 million units / year to competitors. They will use the bids of competitors to drive down the whole sale price of the current and existing contracts. "i.e your competitor will build us 5 million units for $112 and our current contract is now $138 / unit. We wish to renegotiate the remaining 1.1 million units on our existing contract to $120/unit and we expand the contract to a total of 6 million units through end of 2009". If the supplier says no then they have basically guaranteed the next contract will go to another supplier.

Note the numbers I used are just examples to give you an idea of the leverage WM uses on its competitors to drive prices down. Many people mistakenly think of Wallmart as a cheap Bestbuy but they have a radically different business model. Wallmart having multiple HD DVD players ranging from $99 to $250 by middle of 2009 would not be completely out of the ordinary. Of course all of this assume that the initial order will sell well, have low returns, high customer satisfaction, and result in large numbers of movie sales. If it doesn't Wallmart will drop HD DVD like a bad habit.

Keep in mind, the article said up to $300 million. So to me, its sounds like no figures are set in stone, except the quantity of 2 million.
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post #736 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by brian1212 View Post

There is no logic to that at all. Why would Walmart stop selling the format that outsells HD DVD? The 1st format to sell 1 Million copies.

Haven't you read ANY of the posts before yours?
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post #737 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by A&M 350Z View Post

And if you never saw them then they were never there! I never said or implied they pushed one format or the other. Just stating they did sell BD players in some, maybe all stores. We really don't know since none of us do inventory for Walmart.

I've seen them in Charlotte, NC. I've seen them in the suburbs of Charlotte. But never in SC.

I've also seen HD DVD movies and BR movies for sale - IN CHARLOTTE. But not in SC.

And I've looked.
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post #738 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by BBS G35 View Post

The symbol 藍光 means blue.

藍光- Wikipedia

Enough already!
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Originally Posted by SimpleTheater View Post

Not true. If HD-DVD wins, TDK will have a small piece of the pie, but if Blu-Ray wins they have a giant piece.


Better to have a small piece of something that's big than a big piece of something that's small?
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post #740 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by hodges69 View Post

Help me with a geography question here.....Is'nt Columbia still the capital of SC???

At least that's what I was taught in grammer school many years ago...If so,when was it moved to Lexington,the city listed in your profile??

I thought the same thing. Then I realized they actually moved the capital to Myrtle Beach-- more golf courses and strip clubs--follow the money trail.
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post #741 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:42 PM
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I don't see how $99 players makes a difference; they may as well be beta decks at this point. Can I get Disney? NO. Can I get Fox? NO. Can I get Columbia? NO.

They could give the players away...unless these studios budge, HD DVD is dead.

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post #742 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Walt O View Post

I don't see how $99 players makes a difference; they may as well be beta decks at this point. Can I get Disney? NO. Can I get Fox? NO. Can I get Columbia? NO.

They could give the players away...unless these studios budge, HD DVD is dead.

Walt O

If a lack of Disney stops people buying HD DVD, how come HD DVD has sold 100,00 stand alones?

Currently, BD holds all the cards apart from price, and yet HD DVD is doing just fine.

Why, if price isn't a factor?

If 100,000 people will buy a HD DVD player when the minimum price is $399 (and has usually been a lot more), why won't more people buy one at $299 or less?

If people have been swayed to BD because 'Casino Royale' is BD-only, why won't people be swayed to HD DVD when 'The Matrix' and '300' are HD DVD only?

Steve W
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post #743 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Actually, those are two characters: Lan Guang. Blue and light.

Your link seems to confirm yet again that it can be used both for Blu-ray and HD DVD, as in blue-laser.

That was my intention
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post #744 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Walt O View Post

Can I get Fox? NO.

Looks like thats the case with both formats

BTW, # of DVDs = 100,000
# of BDs = 220

Can I get those 999,780 DVDs on BD, NO.
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post #745 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by BBS G35 View Post

That was my intention

I didn't think so initially, but thought so after I read the link, so I just made sure others knew what was there too.

Good link.

P.S. 25 pages in ~2 days. Impressive.


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post #746 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Rysa4 View Post

Reasonable rendition of the thought process. HD-DVD wins.

Could you hold me a place in line at the Katy Mills Wal-mart when these things hit, thats my favorite.

Steve

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post #747 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by rob316 View Post

This is good news for HD-DVD but anyone consider that this may help Toshiba sell more of their HD-DVD players. I myself have been on the sidelines waiting for this format war to play out due to the fact that I did not want to buy a format that would be extinct. I was leaning towards HD-DVD due to the low price (and my dislike of Sony) but with this new player I may now go and purchase the Tosh XA2 knowing that due to these low priced players the format would survive.

Rob

Yeah.......me too. I wonder if this will substantially drive down the toshiba price? Anyone know if these "walmart" players will upscale?

Steve

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post #748 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

To clarify, I think that is certain a possibility.

My sources have told me that full or mass production will be in August, but that dos not conflict with some on the street in Wal-Mart before that.

Wal-Mart will probably roll these out in some test stores first, just as it has been test marketing some Toshiba HD A2's in some markets now.

I now have Toshiba sources telling me they have know about this deal for a while and that they expect the MSRP to be below $299 with the street prices effectively $199 or lower by the 4th quarter.

Wal-Mart will probably continue to sell the PS3 and may carry other Blu-ray players based on their price points and sales performance.

These Chinese HD DVD players will probably replace in effect or compete with Wal-Marts higher priced DVD players or upconverting DVD players.

Prices in the store will drop as time goes on. They also have some obvious potential as holiday season door busters.

The initial pricing and initial sales point will be higher than they will be sold at soon after launch, but for MSRP establishment and advertising purposes they probably need to be sold for a short time at full MSRP is Wal-Mart if the single source retailer.

In short, these may very well be at some Wal-Marts in August at a higher price than they will be sold during the 4th quarter. Expect them to be $100 to $150 less than the HD A2 when they are sold on mass.

What are your sources?
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post #749 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:36 PM
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Let me just reiterate my #3 point. Maybe the most valid point made so far.

3. These bad boys will be on a wooden pallet in the center of one of the larger aisles around the holidays. People will be snapping them up like the $19.99 apex of which i own two. BTW, the apex play anything.

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post #750 of 2662 Old 04-21-2007, 03:48 PM
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We all need to cool down until we get a confirmation of the story by Wal Mart or someone else in the industry.

Those who have said they have confirmed this with "other sources" need to provide the info on these other sources.

Once confirmed we can all party like it's 1999.
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