Fuh Yuan to make 2M HD-DVD players for Walmart; Wal-Mart denies rumor - Page 89 - AVS Forum
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post #2641 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Bailey151 View Post

That's what I paid for my 1st VHS - a previously viewed copy of Alien

I'm not even going to get into computers - paid how much for a 64kb machine?

Apple II +.

I took out a business loan to purchase it. I kid you not.

Don't even ask me about the cost of the external harddrive for it or my story of buying an Apple II GS.

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post #2642 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by JuKo View Post

All Blu-ray-players implementing 1.0 profile ("current" spec) will be able to play Blu-ray discs in the future. Some extra features might not be accessible, but the video will always be playable (basically all the current features of Blu-ray-movies will be available in the future with current players). Also the Nov-1-07 is not the "release" date for the 1.1 profile, it's a date when all players MUST use it, it CAN be used earlier too.

IIRC thats the last permitted date of manufacture without compliance. Built Blu-ray players can be sold for months more or even forever for that matter.

Isn't that correct?

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post #2643 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Apple II +.

I took out a business loan to purchase it. I kid you not.

Don't even ask me about the cost of the external harddrive for it or my story of buying an Apple II GS.

It's amazing isn't it! I just bought my 6 yr old daughter a used G3 iMac - one of those beautiful all in one LCD screen units. That thing probably has more power than the entire computer lab at my High School back in the mid-80's and it cost me $300!

I read a great article yesterday about how Toshiba is licensing the HD DVD tech to low cost Chinese manufacturers. They drew the comparison to the Beta-max VHS war. This is EXACTLY the same strategy that JVC used back with VHS to beat Sony's Beta-max. I don't care if Wal-mart, K-mart, Circuit City, Best Buy, or all of them ends up selling a sub $200 HD DVD Player - just get them into the hands of the masses ASAP to keep the product line alive!

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post #2644 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 04:44 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

IIRC thats the last permitted date of manufacture without compliance. Built Blu-ray players can be sold for months more or even forever for that matter.

Isn't that correct?

Sort of. Recently, Talk revealed a loophole that wasn't ever mentioned before: the cutoff date is only for new models. They can still build and sell 1.0 players, as long as the model was launched prior to the cutoff date.
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post #2645 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Well, you missed my point completely.

You took my statement out of context by cutting off the 2 previous sentences and the 1st following sentence;



BD was banking on the PS3 to win the war. There weren't any plans I'm sure to sell a cheaper player any sooner than next year. Why? Because they were counting on PS3 to sell and win the war while they reap the profits of high priced stand alones.

Toshiba's plan, has been, from the beginning. To counter the PS3 with cheap players. Be the first to get the HD-DVD players to the price that is fit for mass adoption. It was their only hope, but I'm sure even they didn't count on the PS3 doing half as well as expected.

BD has to change their plan in order to compete with the <$200 players that will be coming. They cannot compete with $600 players.

Just looking at the BDA's propaganda CES magazine piece distributed at CES.

Awful lot of PS3 will win the war because of millions and millions of units with high attach rate assumptions in there. Even the BDA was assuming that the PS3 would be 80%-90% of the Blu-ray player volume this year. And their assumptions for HD DVD player volumes were ridiculously low.

It almost a funny read even now, when HD DVD has fought back in disc sales the last four weeks in the Nielson movie sales records.

HD DVD fighting back even for month wasn't in the script, PS3 NA sales being so low and dropping each month wasn't in the script, HD DVD players outselling Blu-ray players 4:1 wasn't in the script. I certainly didn't see anything about cheaper HD DVD players at Wal-Mart there.

Only the 1st quarter sales advantage was there, and that's fast becoming history.

Anybody else notice we haven't heard a lot of the BDA the last month besides talking about the 1st quarter sales.

I don't think I've seen Andy Parsons go this long without a magazine interview in two years.

Just for your considerations.

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post #2646 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by sNEIRBO View Post

It's amazing isn't it! I just bought my 6 yr old daughter a used G3 iMac - one of those beautiful all in one LCD screen units. That thing probably has more power than the entire computer lab at my High School back in the mid-80's and it cost me $300!

I read a great article yesterday about how Toshiba is licensing the HD DVD tech to low cost Chinese manufacturers. They drew the comparison to the Beta-max VHS war. This is EXACTLY the same strategy that JVC used back with VHS to beat Sony's Beta-max. I don't care if Wal-mart, K-mart, Circuit City, Best Buy, or all of them ends up selling a sub $200 HD DVD Player - just get them into the hands of the masses ASAP to keep the product line alive!

link to the article?

Phuuuleeze??? Or where it was if it wasn't online?

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post #2647 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 05:50 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://gamer.blorge.com/2007/04/30/a...nough-delivery

Analyst: PS3 father axed over "not enough delivery"
Posted on April 30th, 2007 by John Pospisil


Going back to my post about the Blu-ray marketing piece distributed at CES.

This wasn't in the script.

Excellent news for Sony and the BDA.

I see that their strategy is working to perfection.
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post #2648 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I don't disagree. But it might be necessary to chose between that and sticking together and getting beat (or at least tied) by these Chinese players anyway. I don't know how much loyalty there is there.

BD CE loyalties will be the least of their worries.

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And those others probably would look at turning to universals like you said, since competing with the XA2 and a $199 HD DVD player (I'm still assuming there is some truth to this rumor) with a high priced HD DVD during this format war doesn't seem like it would be likely to be very profitable for them.

What other alternative would other BD CEs be left with? If Sony produces a standalone player which undercuts PS3 pricing, it will represent a clear admission and public recognition that the inclusion of Blu-ray in their latest console was a mistake of colossal proportions.
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post #2649 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by jfbar1 View Post

I have been so close to posting the same every time I see that term used. What is it that all these high volume posters do that is NOT j6p? Are we talking lawyers, doctors, rocket scientists? This is a hobby that all can be interested in no matter what your rank in society is. Of course it can be an expensive hobby, but I know alot of J6P's that max out their credit cards to get the latest and greatest, I know I have in the past.

I do not get how this term could be offensive. I do think that some posters have a narrow view that is colored by their own experiences as they pursue their hobby. Almost everyone that I know has difficulty understanding all of this high tech stuff, that's why they always ask a geek like me for help. I don't think of most of my friends or family as less than me just because they don't pursue this hobby. Would I refer to them as J6P, probably not. I think of them as regular people that have other interests than high tech home theater. on the other hand, I think of J6P as a humorous term. I picture a guy like Homer Simpson going down to his local Best Buy and asking for one of those "big tvs so i can watch movies with big hooters on it". Maybe Homer should be offended.
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post #2650 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by rto View Post

If Sony produces a standalone player which undercuts PS3 pricing, it will represent a clear admission and public recognition that the inclusion of Blu-ray in their latest console was a mistake of colossal proportions.

Why? Seems to me like they could complement each other. Including it in the PS3 may or may not have been a mistake of colossal proportions, but I don't see how having standalones players priced lower than the PS3 indicates anything like that. If Sony had standalone DVD players that were priced less than the PS2 (I don't know if they did), that wouldn't have indicated that putting a DVD drive in the PS2 was a mistake (especially looking at Japan where the PS2 had the DVD drive pretty early in the life of DVD). I know it wasn't quite the risk back then, but I still don't see how that would indicate that it was a mistake to include the Blu-ray drive. Having standalones be less than a game machine that can do a lot more seems natural, with just the timing of when the standalones are less being up for question.

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post #2651 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Why? Seems to me like they could complement each other. Including it in the PS3 may or may not have been a mistake of colossal proportions, but I don't see how having standalones players priced lower than the PS3 indicates anything like that. If Sony had standalone DVD players that were priced less than the PS2 (I don't know if they did), that wouldn't have indicated that putting a DVD drive in the PS2 was a mistake (especially looking at Japan where the PS2 had the DVD drive pretty early in the life of DVD). I know it wasn't quite the risk back then, but I still don't see how that would indicate that it was a mistake to include the Blu-ray drive. Having standalones be less than a game machine that can do a lot more seems natural, with just the timing of when the standalones are less being up for question.

--Darin

The real differences bettwen the PS2 with DVD & PS3 with BD, is that back then the competitor to DVD was VHS. It made a much more compelling argument in that scenario.

BD or even HD DVD are just not that so much better to the majority of consumers that they are willing to invest that much money in a player for either BD or HD DVD. So, asking the public to pay an additiona $300 or so more than a regular games machine for a BD player is a stretch.
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post #2652 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by YONEXSP View Post

The real differences bettwen the PS2 with DVD & PS3 with BD, is that back then the competitor to DVD was VHS. It made a much more compelling argument in that scenario.

BD or even HD DVD are just not that so much better to the majority of consumers that they are willing to invest that much money in a player for either BD or HD DVD. So, asking the public to pay an additiona $300 or so more than a regular games machine for a BD player is a stretch.

I understand that argument and pointed out that it could have been a mistake or not, but your point doesn't address the issue I was discussing (the one that rto brought up). As I said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Including it in the PS3 may or may not have been a mistake of colossal proportions, but I don't see how having standalones players priced lower than the PS3 indicates anything like that.

Do you think that Sony coming out with a standalone Blu-ray player that costs less than the PS3 would be an admission that putting a Blu-ray drive in the PS3 was a mistake of colossal proportions? If so, how would it show that?

Put another way, we could argue about whether it was a mistake or not, but I just want to know how having a player priced less than the PS3 would show that. I think having a player priced lower than the PS3 is perfectly natural and would have happened even if there was no war and Blu-ray was the only HD format. Just a question of when a standalone would cost less (like DVD players cost less than the PS2).

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post #2653 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 07:26 PM
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Excellent news for Sony and the BDA.

I see that their strategy is working to perfection.

Their strategy is to send Ken to Nintendo and hope he would "help" Wii in a similar way
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post #2654 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 07:28 PM
 
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Their strategy is to send Ken to Nintendo and hope he would "help" Wii in a similar way

Lol.
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post #2655 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Why?

Because it would be a complete abandonment of their original strategy of leveraging BD into millions of homes on the back of a gaming console, with HD media mass-adoption ramping up concurrently with a conventional pattern of price reductions over several years. Sony may have understood that initial attach rates would be modest, but I'm reasonably certain they didn't expect them to remain so, as even those gamers with no initial interest in HD movies, relented over time as the format became ever more viable and visible, with a widely available, broad selections of titles.

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Seems to me like they could complement each other. Including it in the PS3 may or may not have been a mistake of colossal proportions, but I don't see how having standalones players priced lower than the PS3 indicates anything like that.

C'mon Darin, I'd be really surprised if you really believe that. BD players priced below PS3 would severely effect already low movie software attach rates for the console, and negatively impact incidental gaming software sales by consumers who might have initially purchased PS3 primarily for BD playback. If PS3 isn't the high volume loss-leading standard bearer for Blu-ray, there's really no reason left for it's inclusion, because notwithstanding Sony's hype and propaganda, it's all but totally irrelevant for gaming in this generation.

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If Sony had standalone DVD players that were priced less than the PS2 (I don't know if they did), that wouldn't have indicated that putting a DVD drive in the PS2 was a mistake (especially looking at Japan where the PS2 had the DVD drive pretty early in the life of DVD).

Apples to oranges. PS2 didn't launch DVD, and was designed a with more modest ( and realistic, IMO ) strategic aim.

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I know it wasn't quite the risk back then, but I still don't see how that would indicate that it was a mistake to include the Blu-ray drive. Having standalones be less than a game machine that can do a lot more seems natural

I'd say having a cheaper standalone with a richer feature-set ( for BD playback) than a multimedia online gaming console makes natual sense.......which helps explain why I and many others, haven't purchased a PS3.

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with just the timing of when the standalones are less being up for question.

I know you won't pretend that Sony ever had any intention of undercutting PS3 within ( at the very least ) the next two years, because you're much too honest for that.
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post #2656 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 08:32 PM
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Just a reminder:

DVD was already a firmly established format before the PS2 even launched. The PS2 didn't ensure DVD's success, although it did speed DVD's adoption in some areas. More importantly though, DVD helped the PS2 to succeed. In addition, as someone else already said, DVD was competing against VHS (and DIVX was already buried), so it was a no-brainer upgrade to DVD for most even with low end TVs.

The difference here with the HD format war is that we have a format, HD DVD, that launched prior to the PS3's Blu-ray, and with superior discs and a feature complete spec. The PS3 launched later, at a higher price, with no discernible improvement in quality over HD DVD, and only mild improvements on some TVs over DVD.

So, IOW, the PS3 has two things to compete with:

1) The ubiquitous DVD, which looks just great on SDTVs, and looks pretty good on HDTVs too while costing substantially less.
2) The more or less equivalent HD DVD, which costs less.

So, while early on (2005) I thought Sony might just pull it off, it's clear now with the 20/20 retrospectoscope just how risky Sony's gameplan was. I think it could have worked if everything had been implemented perfectly with the PS3, with regards to launch date, price, Blu-ray quality and BD50, and the complete profile spec among other things. However, Sony and its Blu-ray friends managed fumble on every single one of these points, and hence we've got a 2500+ post thread about how a "simple" go-cheap-as-early-as-possible plan from Toshiba could beat the monster Blu-ray drive that is the PS3.
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post #2657 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by rto View Post

If Sony produces a standalone player which undercuts PS3 pricing, it will represent a clear admission and public recognition that the inclusion of Blu-ray in their latest console was a mistake of colossal proportions.

I disagree. Sony would have to make it clear that a BD player is really much simpler than a PS3 (and that would be quite true). The PS3 has the Cell processor and PS2 compatibility HW. A game machine is far more complex than a mere player.

The irony is, Sony placed the PS3 game machine below the standalone players -- and have taken much financial loss doing it. This is because the market thinks $600 is stretching it for a game platform, but early adopters are used to spending a grand on the latest and greatest.

So, dropping player prices would not make the PS3 BD decision appear to be a colossal mistake -- people expect DVD players to drop below $200. Can Sony drop the players way below the PS3 without dropping the PS3 price in tandem? Would PS3 sales drop further as people don't see it as a BD player value, but only a game machine?

OTOH, if HD DVD wins, the PS3 is just a game player - so they are really in a no lose situation in terms of needing to drop player prices.

The questions are more:
1) The will to recognize they need to change strategies so drastically
2) What brand name to drop prices on -- Sony prides the Sony brand as premium -- I don't see them price matching the cheap Chinese players with a Sony player
3) Bringing the BDA consortium members along with them
4) Doing this all in time for Holiday 2007

Ken
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post #2658 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by rto View Post

I know you won't pretend that Sony ever had any intention of undercutting PS3 within ( at the very least ) the next two years, because you're much too honest for that.

Exactly! It was supposed to go into every home! People will work OT to buy one! It will be the center of every families entertainment system!!!

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post #2659 of 2662 Old 05-01-2007, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by rto View Post

Because it would be a complete abandonment of their original strategy of leveraging BD into millions of homes on the back of a gaming console, with HD media mass-adoption ramping up concurrently with a conventional pattern of price reductions over several years.

They've already got the millions of homes part. The HD media-mass adoption cannot logically proceed faster than HDTV penetration at it's upper limit. Blu-ray adoption will follow on the heels of HDTVs.

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C'mon Darin, I'd be really surprised if you really believe that. BD players priced below PS3 would severely effect already low movie software attach rates for the console, and negatively impact incidental gaming software sales by consumers who might have initially purchased PS3 primarily for BD playback.

I definitely disagree with the latter because I don't believe they are mutually exclusive. I already have an incredible Blu-ray player in the PS3 and a standalone replacement would have to do a whole bunch more than that the PS3 can't (very unlikely) or better (even more unlikely). The only thing that could make me want a standalone is 24p and that's assuming that the PS3 won't/can't add such capability by firmware. I'll buy games that interest me as they come out.

If I've been waiting for a PS3, and am a gamer that already owns an HDTV, then the PS3 is a logical choice to kill two birds with one stone. If I'm not a gamer, I am already skeptical about a PS3 and the cheaper standalone is more attractive. If I'm the strange gamer that isn't into movies, I still get the PS3 and may buy a movie or two ... even if I don't, I'm still then purchasing games. The key here is that the PS3 has some price elasticity that won't be used until still currently strong PS2 sales dip below a threshold point.

Blu-ray optics and the Cell are the two most expensive components of PS3 and if the prices on the former have fallen enough to allow 2nd gen consoles to take a 40% MSRP cut, it's only reasonable to put that discount in their portion to PS3. Use iSupply's numbers if you like...



Quote:
Originally Posted by rto View Post

If PS3 isn't the high volume loss-leading standard bearer for Blu-ray, there's really no reason left for it's inclusion, because notwithstanding Sony's hype and propaganda, it's all but totally irrelevant for gaming in this generation.

Only while PS2 sales remain strong.

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Originally Posted by rto View Post

Apples to oranges. PS2 didn't launch DVD, and was designed a with more modest ( and realistic, IMO ) strategic aim.

Nevertheless, Playstation 2 was the first DVD player for many a household. As the format gained traction (didn't pass VHS until June 2003!) and standalones became cheaper, the PS2 exploded as it's price cuts took effect.

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post #2660 of 2662 Old 05-02-2007, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by UxiSXRD View Post

They've already got the millions of homes part. The HD media-mass adoption cannot logically proceed faster than HDTV penetration at it's upper limit. Blu-ray adoption will follow on the heels of

PS3 sales haven't come remotely close to meeting expectations, despite the fact that there are more than enough installed HDTVs to drive demand. You're simply repeating the rationale that got them into this mess in the first place.



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I definitely disagree with the latter because I don't believe they are mutually exclusive. I already have an incredible Blu-ray player in the PS3 and a standalone replacement would have to do a whole bunch more than that the PS3 can't (very unlikely) or better (even more unlikely). The only thing that could make me want a standalone is 24p and that's assuming that the PS3 won't/can't add such capability by firmware. I'll buy games that interest me as they come out.

IMO, BD hardware isn't quite there yet.......and it's slim pickins' on the gaming front given pricing constraints dictated by BD inclusion, and the resulting position of languishing in third place.

Quote:


If I've been waiting for a PS3, and am a gamer that already owns an HDTV, then the PS3 is a logical choice to kill two birds with one stone.

If you're first-and-foremost a gamer who wants a good selection titles from which to choose, and play online, there's a better, less expensive choice.

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If I'm not a gamer, I am already skeptical about a PS3 and the cheaper standalone is more attractive.

I agree that cheaper is always more attractive, both from the standpoint of fence-sitting consumers with reservations, and the potential for high volume sales; however, the question remains: can you accept the enormous cost of meeting a competitors price point, when your per-unit subsidy is already so substantial?

Quote:


If I'm the strange gamer that isn't into movies, I still get the PS3 and may buy a movie or two ... even if I don't, I'm still then purchasing games.

If you're a gamer who isn't into movies, why on Earth would you choose the overpriced console with a smaller library?

Quote:


The key here is that the PS3 has some price elasticity that won't be used until still currently strong PS2 sales dip below a threshold point.

By that time, the point might well be moot.

Quote:


Only while PS2 sales remain strong.

Relative to the latest iteration, that's likely to be the case until the price of next-gen PS gaming is more in line with what the masses are actually willing to pay. Which comes first, the chicken, or the egg?

Quote:


Nevertheless, Playstation 2 was the first DVD player for many a household. As the format gained traction (didn't pass VHS until June 2003!) and standalones became cheaper,the PS2 exploded as it's price cuts took effect.

Exactly. < $200.
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post #2661 of 2662 Old 05-02-2007, 02:02 AM
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topic seems to have run its course.

Walking the fine line between jaw-dropping and a plain ol' yawn.
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post #2662 of 2662 Old 05-02-2007, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDon View Post

topic seems to have run its course.

agreed

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