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post #181 of 1657 Old 05-07-2007, 05:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

There is a method to the madness.

First off, Toshiba benefits if the HD DVD format goes mainstream. If it does, Toshiba cannot by itself manufacture enough players to meet the demand. Toshiba would love it if it can sell all the units it can produce (situation as of now) and get royalties from other sold HD DVD players.

Next thing is the marketing principle that an established brand has equity in it and that there is a brand premium that some people will pay more for the same item produced by a brand name manufacturer. Loyalty, previous experience, reduction of risk, better customer support. etc. is worth something for those people. That's a lot of AVSrs. We are willing to pay a bit of a premium for those items. But for many people buying a store no name branded item. like from Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart. Costco, Sam's Club or another major retailer, the retailer takes the place of the brand with easy return policies, and past experiences.

HD DVD has the advantage of a coherent pricing strategy. Toshiba sales will benefit even if they are (and probably will) be sold side by side with a store brand player. Some people will pay a premium for the brand.

As a matter of fact. Toshiba HD A2 sales will probably increase if there are a lower cost unbranded player being sold $100 less right beside them. First off, the cheaper player may generate interest , but some people may consider them, and then say OK I can buy that. Then they look at the Toshiba for $100 more, decision already made to buy the $199 player and say to themselves, hey I can get the Toshiba for only $100 more. I can do that. Once the purchase decision is made for the lower item, its almost a sunk cost in the consumers mind, and the price of the branded item is perceived to be only the upgrade price.


This may be the pricing structure by fall.

$149 - $199 Xbox 360 add on (need Xbox 360)
$179 - $199 Chinese SoC players (Fuh Yuan, Alcoa, etc.) (1080i)
$249 - $299 Toshiba HD A2 (1080i brand name)
$349 - $399 Toshiba HD A20 (1080p)
$479 - $549 Toshiba HD XA2 (1080p, Reon CV, maybe 1080p24)
$799 - $999 Samsung and LG Dual HD DVD Blu-ray Players (play both formats)
$999 - $1199 Merdian / Onkyo high end HD DVD or Dual HD DVD Blu-ray Players


At every price point you add some increased feature or go to a more premium brand name. That's a coherent pricing stepladder which allows consumers to balance price and performance and brand equity.

Compare that to Blu-ray's price and performance and specification chartings, with the PS3 coming in and attracting a lot of first adopters, and HD DVD's stand alone pricing is coherent to consumers.

And HD DVD player pricing is dropping steadily for all levels .

And its lower than Blu-rays.

That is an advantage for HD DVD.

Once pricepoints are done by discount retailers, there is a good bet that will become the norm in the future. Since the A2 is already availble at at least a couple of places for $299 and the A20 at $369, I think you numbers are right on. However, there is cause to believe they may be even lower (at least the Toshiba line).

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post #182 of 1657 Old 05-07-2007, 05:12 PM
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Yeah, I'd be surprised if Microsoft doesn't drop the price of the 360 add-on come November. $149 seems appropriate, esp. without the free HD DVD insider. They could even go as low as $129 if they removed the remote. Or worst case $149 without the remote.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

But dude, Toshiba engineers are producing all the HD DVD drives now, or they are being bulit to Toshiba's design standards and specifications, and Toshiba is doing the heavy lifting for the specifications and adoption of the standard in the HD DVD forum.

That's one cook.

You can comply with a spec if you have a pretty good idea what it is since you designed it yourself.

Toshiba probably would not propose the standard if all the millions of Toshiba HD DVD second generation players could not play them.

If the second generation Toshiba players can play them, teh third generation SoC designs will also be able to play them. As a minimum Broadcom and Sigma will be designing their future decoding solutions with the draft or proposed specifications in mind.

That would be the logical answer. However we all know that logic and standards aren't always in sync.

Furthermore, there is obviously no requirement that a player produced in 2007 be compliant with a 2008 spec. It could be relatively easy to do it, but that doesn't guarantee a cheapo Chinese company would want to go through all the hassle (and cost) of supporting all that.

One great big thing this war has reinforced to us is that at the real common denominator for all of this is the desire to make money.

The only way I really see a cheap Chinese manufacturer supporting all this is if companies like Toshiba are giving them very nice incentives to do so.

IOW, all I'm saying is that while TL51/DL34 is a real possibility, I certainly wouldn't count on it.
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post #183 of 1657 Old 05-07-2007, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Microsoft doesn't drop the price of the 360 add-on come November. $149 seems appropriate, esp. without the free HD DVD insider. They could even go as low as $129 if they removed the remote.

From what I understand the remote will be included with the HD DVD player permanently. It is actually a time for a price drop, especially with the HD-A2 hovering @ $299~$330
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post #184 of 1657 Old 05-07-2007, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

From what I understand the remote will be included with the HD DVD player permanently. It is actually a time for a price drop, especially with the HD-A2 hovering @ $299~$330

OK then, $149 for the 360 HD DVD add-on it is, with the remote, come Hallowe'en.
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post #185 of 1657 Old 05-07-2007, 06:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Those Blu-ray players could be priced lower if the BDA companies wanted to reduce their margins or if they could produce them in larger quantities and achieve economies of scale in their production or component costing.

Sigma has SoC solutions right now as the guts of some current mainstream brand Blu--ray players. But those players are still premium, not budget priced.

But the mainline brand Blu-ray manufacturers have just introduced their products for the most part this year, with this 4th quarter their real holiday sales season.

Its marketing, politics and strategy for the Blu-ray manufacturers which will make it difficult for low cost players to be available this year.

Kinda tough for a Blu-ray CE company to sell a cheaper Blu-ray player that has higher specifications than its recently launched more expensive player.

A none of them are going to help along a reference design like Microsoft and Broadcom and Toshiba are doing for HD DVD.

Kosty, you hit several nails right on their heads. Blu-ray CEs are boxed in by their own high prices. A $299 Blu-ray player that does more than its predecessor that cost $1000 to start would be a very hard adjustment. Early supporters wouldn't be very pleased either. I read every day about XA2 buyers who feel unhappy because they paid $50 to $100 more than they are going for now. What does a buyer say when his purchase drops 50% or more in a matter of months. Blu-ray priced everything but the PS3 too high, and it will be hard to reduce those prices fast enough to make a difference.

And you are absolutely right that the Blu-ray CEs are not going to "help along a reference design like Microsoft and Broadcom and Toshiba are doing for HD DVD." That would be politically and economically impossible for them. When Toshiba and Microsoft help out the Chinese companies, they are sowing the seeds of future royalties without jeopardizing their own place in the market. When Sony, Panasonic, and Pioneer do the same, they are setting up new competitors to their overly-priced units. As you mentioned before, Toshiba A2s sitting next to Shincos will likely sell, even at $100 more, based on reputation and quality. The position of Blu-ray players, especially the older ones that don't have all the feature support, would be a bit more embarrassing, to say the least. When Toshiba came out of the gate with a $499 player in 2006, Blu-ray should have reevaluated their strategy and adjusted their prices sensibly.
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post #186 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 05:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Lets try to not have this as a format war bitchfest as much as we can have this as a discussion of issues on the less expensive players and their impact.

Sorry if I offended you. I do not make it a practice of engaging in bitchfests or in personal attacks of any kind. I simply thought that the poster, well known, in this case, recounted an incongruous story of "Big Fish" proportions.
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post #187 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 05:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

There is a method to the madness.

First off, Toshiba benefits if the HD DVD format goes mainstream. If it does, Toshiba cannot by itself manufacture enough players to meet the demand. Toshiba would love it if it can sell all the units it can produce (situation as of now) and get royalties from other sold HD DVD players.

Next thing is the marketing principle that an established brand has equity in it and that there is a brand premium that some people will pay more for the same item produced by a brand name manufacturer. Loyalty, previous experience, reduction of risk, better customer support. etc. is worth something for those people. That's a lot of AVSrs. We are willing to pay a bit of a premium for those items. But for many people buying a store no name branded item. like from Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart. Costco, Sam's Club or another major retailer, the retailer takes the place of the brand with easy return policies, and past experiences.

HD DVD has the advantage of a coherent pricing strategy. Toshiba sales will benefit even if they are (and probably will) be sold side by side with a store brand player. Some people will pay a premium for the brand.

As a matter of fact. Toshiba HD A2 sales will probably increase if there are a lower cost unbranded player being sold $100 less right beside them. First off, the cheaper player may generate interest , but some people may consider them, and then say OK I can buy that. Then they look at the Toshiba for $100 more, decision already made to buy the $199 player and say to themselves, hey I can get the Toshiba for only $100 more. I can do that. Once the purchase decision is made for the lower item, its almost a sunk cost in the consumers mind, and the price of the branded item is perceived to be only the upgrade price.


This may be the pricing structure by fall.

$149 - $199 Xbox 360 add on (need Xbox 360)
$179 - $199 Chinese SoC players (Fuh Yuan, Alcoa, etc.) (1080i)
$249 - $299 Toshiba HD A2 (1080i brand name)
$349 - $399 Toshiba HD A20 (1080p)
$479 - $549 Toshiba HD XA2 (1080p, Reon CV, maybe 1080p24)
$799 - $999 Samsung and LG Dual HD DVD Blu-ray Players (play both formats)
$999 - $1199 Merdian / Onkyo high end HD DVD or Dual HD DVD Blu-ray Players


At every price point you add some increased feature or go to a more premium brand name. That's a coherent pricing stepladder which allows consumers to balance price and performance and brand equity.

Compare that to Blu-ray's price and performance and specification chartings, with the PS3 coming in and attracting a lot of first adopters, and HD DVD's stand alone pricing is coherent to consumers.

And HD DVD player pricing is dropping steadily for all levels .

And its lower than Blu-rays.

That is an advantage for HD DVD.

Does Toshiba also make royalties on every HD-DVD disk sold now and forever? Blank disk, studio releases- one or both. Would there be an incremental difference? Just curious.
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post #188 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post

A $299 Blu-ray player that does more than its predecessor that cost $1000 to start would be a very hard adjustment. Early supporters wouldn't be very pleased either.

IMHO, if Sony and the BDA thought this was the way to go, they would throw the early adopters out the window in a heartbeat. The problem is, it does the same for most of them.
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post #189 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 08:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post

Kosty, you hit several nails right on their heads. Blu-ray CEs are boxed in by their own high prices. A $299 Blu-ray player that does more than its predecessor that cost $1000 to start would be a very hard adjustment. Early supporters wouldn't be very pleased either. I read every day about XA2 buyers who feel unhappy because they paid $50 to $100 more than they are going for now. What does a buyer say when his purchase drops 50% or more in a matter of months. Blu-ray priced everything but the PS3 too high, and it will be hard to reduce those prices fast enough to make a difference.

And you are absolutely right that the Blu-ray CEs are not going to "help along a reference design like Microsoft and Broadcom and Toshiba are doing for HD DVD." That would be politically and economically impossible for them. When Toshiba and Microsoft help out the Chinese companies, they are sowing the seeds of future royalties without jeopardizing their own place in the market. When Sony, Panasonic, and Pioneer do the same, they are setting up new competitors to their overly-priced units. As you mentioned before, Toshiba A2s sitting next to Shincos will likely sell, even at $100 more, based on reputation and quality. The position of Blu-ray players, especially the older ones that don't have all the feature support, would be a bit more embarrassing, to say the least. When Toshiba came out of the gate with a $499 player in 2006, Blu-ray should have reevaluated their strategy and adjusted their prices sensibly.

IMO bda have no reason to cut player prices. their strategy was to build a base with the ps3 and so far it is working well enough to keep them on top.

hd dvd is trying to build a base with lower cost players.

B&Ms can actuallly use the low cost hd dvd players to bait and switch customers to bd players.

for now all the BDA has to do is sit back, spread FUD, and wait to see if people will buy hd dvd players anyway.
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post #190 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 09:12 AM
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FUD works...I like it and both sides use it.

Though I don't know that FUD really applies here...

Fear? No its juust 'stuff'....not life or limb (though many act as if it is)

Uncertainty? Life is uncertain. Anything can happen....again the war is uncertain at this point but it has nothing to do with what either side is doing. Both sides want to win and all is fair.

Doubt? Really? Again a synonym of uncertainty. Doubt is easily resolved...Buy both or buy none and wait for a winner.

Personally, whoever wins won't change anything. All of ys will want movies that will come from all studios when one format has been defeated and if the HD DVD format wins, many here will dump their G1 players in favor of better, feature laden, more reliable players.....at ALL price points.

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post #191 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverjg View Post

IMO bda have no reason to cut player prices. their strategy was to build a base with the ps3 and so far it is working well enough to keep them on top.

hd dvd is trying to build a base with lower cost players.

B&Ms can actuallly use the low cost hd dvd players to bait and switch customers to bd players.

for now all the BDA has to do is sit back, spread FUD, and wait to see if people will buy hd dvd players anyway.

Yup, so far their reaction is to stay the course.

There is a new ad campaign for the 4th quarter to push the PS3 as a blu-ray player for holiday sales.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...eting_Push/615

Sony Touts Blu-ray Capabilities in New PlayStation 3 Marketing Push

Hoping to prime the PlayStation 3 sales pump for a blockbuster fourth quarter, Sony is launching an aggressive marketing campaign touting the console's Blu-ray capabilities.

Faced with PS3 sales lagging behind the Xbox 360 and the more family-friendly Nintendo Wii, Sony is focusing its next round of marketing might on hyping their next-gen console as the most comprehensive Blu-ray Disc player on the market.

Sony will promote the console's cutting-edge high-def capabilities, including its extensive studio support, superior picture and sound, and web-enabled connectivity (despite the fact that no studio has yet released a Blu-ray title with online content).

"Our goal is to definitely widen our target base and not be so niche," Kim Nguyen, Sony PlayStation 3 Manager, told Video Business of the ad campaign, which is set to encompass multiple media including TV, print, radio and Internet.

"This is high-def entertainment messaging, where we have our exclusive software titles, and we are delivering a very powerful machine. On the movie side, you have beautiful movies that you can watch on the PS3. We are going for that larger audience," she added.

Sony has not yet announced an exact start date for its PS3 Blu-ray blitz, nor total marketing costs. However, the campaign is expected to begin sometime this summer, leading up to the fourth quarter.

As of March 31, current industry sales numbers for North America place the Wii at 2.1 million units sold; the Xbox 360 at 5.3 million; and the Playstation 3 at 1.2 million.

"We did not have business relations with that company, Fuh Yuan."
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post #192 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 12:45 PM
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Regarding blue diode Pick Up Heads (PUH) and whether there is a shortage...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pecker View Post

If Sony have assigned these already it'll be to the PS3.
But the PS3 isn't selling. It appears to have sold a maximum of 3 million worldwide, but they've already built 6 million.
There are probably going to be plenty of excess PUHs out there.
Steve W

Kosty, I hope this isn't out of place, but I think new marketing plans for the PS3 are relevant to the impact of inexpensive Chinese HD DVD players. There were two articles today about a new move by Sony:

"Sony widens PlayStation 3 marketing New ads will promote family games, Blu-ray functionality" http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6439199.html

"Sony Touts Blu-ray Capabilities in New PlayStation 3 Marketing Push"
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...eting_Push/615

Comments?

-Bill

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post #193 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 12:53 PM
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Well,

If you have 3 million PS3s sitting in a warehouse, you either store them there by not lowering prices OR you can give them away to offset the battle.... At this point, what would they have to lose? They're not making money or increasing market share by sitting in warehouse.

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post #194 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

Well,

If you have 3 million PS3s sitting in a warehouse, you either store them there by not lowering prices OR you can give them away to offset the battle.... At this point, what would they have to lose?

I dunno, about a billion dollars?
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post #195 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:13 PM
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Sony pushing so hard for PS3 sales...wouldn't this kind of piss off the other BD Player Manufacturers...leaving them with a huge stock of unwanted BD players.

Joe V.
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post #196 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:19 PM - Thread Starter
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The lackluster sales of the PS3 is an issue for Sony.

Its a question of whether or not they think the 4th quarter will redeem the PS3. From a advertising standpoint October impressions will last long enough to affect Dec sales. But by late October Sony should be starting to see if that campaign is bearing fruit.

I would imagine that Sony will smack broadcast TV adn cable, and some print hard in early October and then check the results. If they see some strong movement in PS3 sales or get good research feedback on the ads they will double down by early Novemeber and hit hard in December. If they see some results but not enough they may bit their tongue and wait until December to spend a lot of money. If they don't see any increase in Oct sales, they may not spend a lot in the entire campaign until black Friday.

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post #197 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwv651 View Post

Sony pushing so hard for PS3 sales...wouldn't this kind of piss off the other BD Player Manufacturers...leaving them with a huge stock of unwanted BD players.

Watching Sony trying to push the PS3 does seem like it would upset other BD player manufacturers, I don't understand why Blu-Ray has other player manufacturers. HD DVD has whacked Blu-Ray across the face in terms of stand alone player sales, it would make more sense for Samsung and Panasonic to release stand alone HD DVD players, that is where the sales are.
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post #198 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

Yup, so far their reaction is to stay the course.

There is a new ad campaign for the 4th quarter to push the PS3 as a blu-ray player for holiday sales.
....


looks like hi. def. smackdown 2007 will be Papa Smurf vs. Huo Yuanjia.
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post #199 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:25 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwv651 View Post

Sony pushing so hard for PS3 sales...wouldn't this kind of piss off the other BD Player Manufacturers...leaving them with a huge stock of unwanted BD players.

One of the problems with the BDA, it has a lot of competing interests.

Read my pricing post above about HD DVD. That is a coherent strategy where a lot of manufacturers can win.

Blu-ray has a double edged sword with the PS3. Great Trojan Horse with millions of Blu-ray drives out in the wild. Lousy competitive pricing for a standalone player competing against it. PS3 prices and performance make a lot of Blu-ray CE companies life more complicated.

But they still can compete on things like standard DVD upconversion and BD-Live specs.

What could really piss BD companies off is if Sony added DVD strong upconversion to the PS3. (it hasn't yet correct? )

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post #200 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:28 PM
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I am 100% sure that Sony will heavily push the PS3 at Xmas. I am also quite sure that the BD CE companies are on board with this, because the PS3 pushes the format, which benefits the BD CE manufacturers.

However, at the same time, the HD DVD group will be pushing hard too, especially on the price front.

The question is who will succeed. HD DVD has a very strong chance of doing very will in this 2007 Q4 battle, but only if it executes its strategy well, with relatively glitch free Chinese players, in high volume, for $199.
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post #201 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:32 PM - Thread Starter
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Its the PS3 versus all of the HD DVD player world this 4th quarter.

Title Bout for sure.

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post #202 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:36 PM
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Kosty,

You went to the mattresses on the original "Wal-Mart is buying 2 million HD DVD players from China" thread. You said numerous insiders, retailers, etc. all pretty much confirmed the general thrust of the story.

My question is...has anything changed or are your sources staying the course or even going farther in confirming the coming storm?

Thanks for your hard work!
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post #203 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:44 PM - Thread Starter
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Latest word is the situation is the same as last described.

No change. All concerned are pleased that the deal is now not front page news.

No real additional word expected until end of month at earliest. could change.

No official announcment expected until late summer early fall.

No retractions by anyone, though at least we know know who talked to the Chinese print reporter.

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post #204 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:46 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 2Channel View Post

Production cost of PS3 could be cut by US$100
http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20070507PD200.html

As blue-laser pick-up heads (PUHs) for use in the PlayStation 3 (PS3) are expected to increase in supply and decrease in price, the production cost of the game console could be reduced by as much as US$100, according to Taiwan-based makers of game consoles and components.

Going back to the credibility of the digitimes articles on no new Chineses SoC players because HD DVD PLUs were going to be costing $299 and short in supply. (Kinda hard with $299 HD A2's and $199 Xbox 360 HD DVD drives) All blu-diode production is increasing.

Never said that all the digitimes articles needed to be consistent .

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post #205 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

One of the problems with the BDA, it has a lot of competing interests.

But if everyone built HD DVD, you'd have the same problem.

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Read my pricing post above about HD DVD. That is a coherent strategy where a lot of manufacturers can win.

I can easily see this being done for the other format, also. There are a wide variety of BD players and recorders in the works. Low end, mid-end, high-end.

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on some things.

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post #206 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

No change. All concerned are pleased that the deal is now not front page news.

Heh. That I can definitely believe.

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But if everyone built HD DVD, you'd have the same problem.

One good thing about the war is that the prices on some standalones (like even the higher end Toshibas) have dropped quicker than I originally expected.

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I can easily see this being done for the other format, also. There are a wide variety of BD players and recorders in the works. Low end, mid-end, high-end.

Tease!
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post #207 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:52 PM - Thread Starter
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Yes but the PS3 really complicates things for Blu-ray product managers.

Its lower price and comparable or higher performance than the Blu-ray players complicate things for Blu-ray.

The PS3 is also the most available , mass marketed and available alternative for the Blu-ray manufacturers.

That is a complication that any HD DVD manufacturer does not have in its pricing strategy.

Those HD DVD price points can be had eventually for Blu-ray, but the PS3 screws them up and no BDA manufacturer has shown any interest in high volume lower margin models anytime soon.

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post #208 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by thebland

Well,

If you have 3 million PS3s sitting in a warehouse, you either store them there by not lowering prices OR you can give them away to offset the battle.... At this point, what would they have to lose?

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Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

I dunno, about a billion dollars?

Looks like Spider Man 3 might just cover that nut, even if it is on the studio side.
I don't know enough to speculate whether or not having such a cash cow could embolden Sony corporate to incur additional losses on the CE side, but clearly they are very lucky to have it.
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post #209 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Latest word is the situation is the same as last described.

No change. All concerned are pleased that the deal is now not front page news.

No real additional word expected until end of month at earliest. could change.

No official announcment expected until late summer early fall.

No retractions by anyone, though at least we know know who talked to the Chinese print reporter.

Appreciate the quick heads up. Again, thanks.
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post #210 of 1657 Old 05-08-2007, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Yes but the PS3 really complicates things for Blu-ray product managers.

Its lower price and comparable or higher performance than the Blu-ray players complicate things for Blu-ray.

The PS3 is also the most available , mass marketed and available alternative for the Blu-ray manufacturers.

That is a complication that any HD DVD manufacturer does not have in its pricing strategy.

Those HD DVD price points can be had eventually for Blu-ray, but the PS3 screws them up and no BDA manufacturer has shown any interest in high volume lower margin models anytime soon.

Yes, the PS3 complicates things. However, it also moves things along.

The CE companies know that in the long run, it's not the console buyers who determine the format. However, they also know that in the short term early on, a console can impact the adoption of the format significantly.

My guess is that the CE companies were counting on an overwhelming influx of PS3s early on, thereby solidifying the Blu-ray format, and then they would swoop in with the JQP friendly standalones to reap the profits.

Unfortunately, the plan has run into snags, due to the delayed release of the PS3, the PS3's high price, the lack of profile 1.1, and the very low price on the competing HD DVD side. However, I suspect that the BD group are still planning on extending the PS3 impact this Xmas with a large push, and hoping that the wave will carry the CE companies along for the ride, especially if they have some lower priced units to sell to the masses.

However, the obvious question is just how low priced the BD machines will be as compared to the Chinese HD DVD players selling at the same time, and if the public will care about the missing interactive features on some units (since BD Live won't be done by Xmas).

My guess is that most of the public won't actually care much about BD Live/Profile 2.0, but they will care about 1.1. Fortunately for Blu-ray, a fair number of 1.1 machines will likely be available come Xmas.
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