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post #1 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:13 PM - Thread Starter
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Chinese HD-DVD Player Rumors/Facts/Conjecture

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This thread for is meant for spirited conversation (we're big enough to not get ugly) regarding Chinese HD-DVD players; to include rumors, facts, conjecture, etc.

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Partly intended as a continuation of the conversation that crept into the Fuh Yuah - Wal-Mart thread, now closed, that involved the discussion and analysis of the possible impact of low cost Software on a Chip (SoC) HD DVD players based on reference designs being built in mass market quantities on the Chinese mainland.

Speculation on their impact on the hardware balance, the format war in general and any specific rumours or sightings of all inexpensive (under $299 MSRP) SoC HD DVD or Blu-ray players is fair game.

For background, the original (now closed ) Fuh is linked below.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=836632

for the record, at this time the alledged Wal-Mart -Fuh Yuan is officially denied by Wal-Mart and is unconfirmed.

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post #2 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:14 PM - Thread Starter
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post #3 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:14 PM - Thread Starter
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post #4 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:14 PM - Thread Starter
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edit: from a few posts down in the thread:

Reposted here at the top of the thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Originally Posted by chris062 View Post

I find it interesting that the mods closed the previous thread about the chinese manufacturing negotiating with Walmart. Was there really that much of a problem with the speculations about this? Why the need for censorship? Just food for thought.

For the record, I agreed with the mods actions is closing that thread.

It was drifting a lot in the last couple pages and nothing was related to the thread topic for at least fifty posts.

Since there was no news related to that particular deal, I agreed with the mods action to close the thread as it did appear that the thread subject as described had run its course.

This thread and the OP should have a more expansive discussion basis and is not directed related to that specific deal.

I did not think we were going to get any new new on the Fuh Yuan - Wal-Mart deal until later this month at the earliest.

I far as I know, the situation has not changed and the deal is in the same state as I last described.

This thread is intended to enlarge the discussion and has as I am intending a mandate to discuss some of the more diverse analysis that the Fuh Yuan thread generated.

IMHO that would not be off topic for this thread.

As the OP here, I want speculations and analysis of the more inexpensive HD DVD (and Blu-ray) players to specifically be part of this thread.

Lets just try to seperate fact from fiction and keep the fanboy nonsense to a minimum. Good natured fun though is allowed.

BTW, IMNSHO I saw no censorship going on on the closing or review of that thread, just more of the usual excellent moderation on behalf of the AVS crew.

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post #5 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:25 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by larrimore View Post

There have been few times over the years that I have been here that I have had to check out a thread as many times per day. It wasn't the Fuh Yuan stuff that made the thread so interestiing. It was actually the conjecture and different "opinions" expressed. I actually find that I miss it.
i went to the format war thread in the HD software forum, but it is quite lame compared to the "spirited" debate from the Fuh Yuan thread. I know it got a bit ugly from time to time, but man it was interesting, no matter which side you were on...

Good idea, IMHO

Let's try to be clear about what is fact, what is rumour , and what is pure speculation and wishful thinking.

Links to appropriate analysis and articles concerning this subject are appreciated.

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post #6 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:28 PM
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I'd like to see the price of the chinese HD DVD players as low as possible

Remember most average consumers don't have elaborate high end speakers as most people on this forum do. Most consumers don't know the difference between HDMI 1.2 and 1.3

By this holiday season I'd like to see

$249
720p/1080i
HDMI 1.2
Component Output

I know a few people who have HDTVs and are impressed by HD DVD when they see my HD DVD movies. However when I start talking about "TrueHD, DTS-HD, HDMI 1.2/1.2a/1.3, VC-1, MPEG-II" they all look at me and say "What are you talking about? Average consumer doesn't care about how VC1 is more efficient than MPEG2, or how HDMI 1.3 is superior to 1.2.
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post #7 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 05:40 PM - Thread Starter
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I just set up a HD A2 for a friend with a 50 plasma, HDMI internal speakers.

they would have bought a SoC design for $199 by themselves. They needed reassurance to spend the $300 ish for the HD A2.

They liked the simplicity of the single HDMI cable.

Loved the picture, but simple is better.

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post #8 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 06:19 PM
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I agree most people who would buy these cheap players do not speak HiDef-ish and cannot really tell the difference between DD and DD+, or HDMI 1.2 or 1.3 - and some don't really care.

But even not speaking the lingo, NOT all things look and feel the same. Some would have very little effect on the sales of these players, while others could still send some customers thinking they are before INFERIOR players - and I assume the idea behind these players is to give consumers the confidence that they don't really need a big name like Sony or Panasonic in silver logos in front of their players. They CAN have a full HD mind-blowing experience without all that.

And in my point of view, price alone will not work. It works WITH a solid name like Toshiba on a $399 player. But without that solid and trusted name, we need to offer something in return.

This Chinese-players move is the most delicate thing in the whole HD DVD strategy because if consumers come to trust these players - meaning that they come to see the same quality and reliability they would get from a Sony/Toshiba-like named player, it can be wonderful.

If not, HD DVD can be stamped with a label the BDA tried to stick on it several times: that HD DVD is just a transitional format towards the superior Blu-ray.

Now about the player:
HDMI 1.2 seems fine to me. I doubt most of the people know the difference between them.
Component output? Sure.
720p/1080i? - there I'm not so sure. It worked for the Toshiba models being bought by early adopters who know what that means. But I'm afraid that, although the average consumer may not know the difference between the two (i or p), they will perceive that as a severe compromise.

The average consumer can be very demanding even if they do not really know why they are demanding. It is a marketing problem to be solved within the marketing department. Marketing MUST have a word on those players.

If the player is 780p/1080i, the HD DVD camp must make sure that this lack of 1080p is NOT perceived as the big difference that drove the price so low - otherwise, I'm afraid, the whole format may be attacked (by competing PR and marketing teams) just as it has been so many times.

Still I believe we need the full spectrum of models at an affordable price.
And before setting the specs for a player with... say... 1080i and not 1080p, I think the HD DVD camp should study EXACTLY what is the consumer perception, desire and the sales trend of 1080p HDTVs.

Do the average consumers perceives 1080i as "enough" or do they feel they are entitled to more? (specially because that's what Blu-ray promises: full HD always).

Do the average consumers desire an HD DVD player? Some do. Some not yet. What specs turn their desires on? Maybe 1080p will do that and put the more expensive Blu-ray players to RIP.

During the time it will take to sell all those players (if they are just 1080i), what will happen to the 1080p HDTV's price? Certainly, by Xmas 2007, these TVs will not cost the same they did a year before. And more important yet, by Xmas 2007, both HD DVD and Blu-ray will already have contributed a lot to the public awareness of HDTVs. Is it still marketing-wise to release 1080i players in a season with so much shopping and misinformation going on?

I wonder if the time to drop the "just 1080i" player will not have arrived by the end of the year. Why? Because lots of HDTVs will be sold by then (and through March 2008) will be 1080p... and we don't want to lose those customers.

So, I believe we need a full spectrum of cheap players: 1080i for $199/$240 and 1080p for $299.

The Toshiba X2 could drop to $350 and get the customer who will not abdicate from a brand name on their players.
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post #9 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 08:00 PM
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Posted in another thread and moved here:

The thing about HD-DVD and the Chinese manufacturers is that it serves many purposes for them:


It allows them to get into the coming lucrative HD market in the USA

It allows them economies of scale as these can be produced in the factories right beside the units that are made for the chosen foprmat in their country

It allows them to screw the BD group who turned a cold shoulder to them

It allows them to snub the Japanese companies who consider them "lower level" competitors

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post #10 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 08:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

I'd like to see the price of the chinese HD DVD players as low as possible

Remember most average consumers don't have elaborate high end speakers as most people on this forum do. Most consumers don't know the difference between HDMI 1.2 and 1.3

By this holiday season I'd like to see

$249
720p/1080i
HDMI 1.2
Component Output

I know a few people who have HDTVs and are impressed by HD DVD when they see my HD DVD movies. However when I start talking about "TrueHD, DTS-HD, HDMI 1.2/1.2a/1.3, VC-1, MPEG-II" they all look at me and say "What are you talking about? Average consumer doesn't care about how VC1 is more efficient than MPEG2, or how HDMI 1.3 is superior to 1.2.

I second that except the A2 is already $299 if you know where to look. So, I could see $199 street for the player you outline. I could see an upgraded spec player from someone like Oppo with HDMI 1.3 and 1080P for another $50.

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post #11 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 08:18 PM
 
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I think we will see a $199 player by the end of the Summer. The Venturer will probably be the first of the Chinese bunch, but who knows. I would expect prices of $149, or less, by the end of the year (Black Friday). I bet the budget Toshiba players will be $199 by the end of the year while BR is lingering at about $399, for their lowest price player.
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post #12 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 09:06 PM
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The only reason why I say 720p/1080i is to keep the price low, obivously if the price was the same 1080p would be a better option to go with
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post #13 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 10:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

The only reason why I say 720p/1080i is to keep the price low, obivously if the price was the same 1080p would be a better option to go with

The BCM 7440 chipset going in these is 1080i

http://www.broadcom.com/collateral/pb/7440-PB100-R.pdf

It also has 7.1 analog outs for audio to go with the optical and coax.

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post #14 of 1657 Old 05-04-2007, 11:30 PM
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I find it interesting that the mods closed the previous thread about the chinese manufacturing negotiating with Walmart. Was there really that much of a problem with the speculations about this? Why the need for censorship? Just food for thought.
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post #15 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 05:02 AM
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Kosty,

We are all pretty much in agreement why Walmart floated the denial of their deal, and we know that they are known for not telegraphing specs of their new products, maybe even just having them appear in a circular right when they are introduced.

However, advanced publication of A/V specs is an anticpated part of CE marketing, used to generate public desire for products. When do you speculate that the Chinese manufacturers (even if we must exclude Fuh Yuan for obvious reasons) will start floating specs for these players.

Venturer, for one, went public months ago with its "silver box". Why would they have any reason not to want to generate some pre release fanfare for theirs? Or are Venturer and the other Chinese companies likely involved in negotiations with U.S. retailers and have had the fear of God instilled in them by the Walmart spectacle?
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post #16 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 05:16 AM
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[quote=Kosty]Chinese HD-DVD Player Rumors/Facts/Conjecture

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a great idea...Walmart gives North Korea the proposed or rumored player contract, they disarm and stop their nuclear agenda at the same time, peace to Asia and Wallymart gains great exposure, North Korea can then afford to turn their straw huts into brick. ...Nice to Dream
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post #17 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 06:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

$249
720p/1080i
HDMI 1.2
Component Output

Perfect.

I don't think economical HD-DVD players need to sweat 1080p (vs. i), IMHO. I just installed the 47" Vizio in a new family cottage. Those sitting in the room ranged from a Manhattan hedge fund guy to a California pulmonologist, and about 10 cousins in between from across the country. One person asked if it was high def. When I answered "it's 1080p LCD", they all laughed with various "that's greek to me" type of comments.

Incidentally, during the build of the cottage, the Chicago wiring guy tried to convince me not to wire behind the wall with HDMI cables since "you can do 1080p over component". Not really true.

Got my hair cut the other day, and my barber said "yep, I bought an HD-DVD player at Walmart last year, but no one carries the HD-DVD's". We live in a small town and our Walmart has never carried HD-DVD players. I didn't have the heart to tell him it wasn't really an HD-DVD.

95% out there want to know if it's high def, size of screen, and what's the cost. The rest is for us gear heads.

I think these suggested specs are perfect. Good price, simple one cable hook up (HDMI) capable, majority of TV's compatible (component), and a self explanatory name (HD-DVD).

Go Wally World Go!
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post #18 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 07:12 AM
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$300 for a player in the future isn't that impressive when you can get a player for $350 now (and possibly $300 as someone pointed out already). This post also seems a bit self centered and what is up with the reserved posts?
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post #19 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 07:21 AM
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BB was selling there old stock of A1's for $199, whats the big deal?, this has to be under $99 for the masses to buy, heck a few yrs they will be along with the $44 walmart players
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post #20 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 07:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HorrorScope View Post

and what is up with the reserved posts?

I was wondering that too. Maybe Kosty has much more to his OP but had to leave.
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post #21 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 08:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HorrorScope View Post

$300 for a player in the future isn't that impressive when you can get a player for $350 now (and possibly $300 as someone pointed out already). This post also seems a bit self centered and what is up with the reserved posts?

I am sure the reserved posts are placeholders for the times that extra special juicy tidbits or official press releases come our way. Great idea and keeps the big news at the front of the thread.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by larrimore View Post

I am sure the reserved posts are placeholders for the times that extra special juicy tidbits or official press releases come our way. Great idea and keeps the big news at the front of the thread.

I trust that Kosty double posts because most of us will not be rereading the start of the thread.
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post #24 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 08:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yampan View Post

I trust that Kosty double posts because most of us will not be rereading the start of the thread.

I assume that is only for the first timers. I agree, I usually never look at teh beginning of a thread once I am into it.

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post #25 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeZ1998 View Post



I also assume that we will see many more major brands than this at some point after this year. What will most likely take place, though, is that most of those will be rebadged Toshiba and Chinese players. Most of the major CEs do not make their own DVD players now, it is farmed out to Chinese manufacturers. HD-DVD looks to be getting to that point very fast indeed! I think with DVD players it took 5 years or more.

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post #26 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 09:24 AM
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I agree that $299 is nothing special when you look at what you can get an A2 for now. These players need to be in stores for $199 for serious impact.
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post #27 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 09:34 AM
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The Lite On should show up this summer, too:


Format neutral! (prefering HD DVD which is build on quality while blu-ray is build on marketing)
CETERUM CENSEO BLU-RAYEM ESSE DELENDAM!
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post #28 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 10:17 AM
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IMHO the price will have to be $199 tops. Even better would be $149 (or less) and at $99 they will literally fly out the door. Not sure, though, if they can be manufactured that cheaply.

1080p would be nice, but I feel most would settle for 1080i in a heartbeat if that lowered the cost. Remember, although there may be the perception that 1080p is superior, that didn't stop the massess from purchasing so called "HD" displays and projectors that were only 480p or 720p.

Ye who now will bless the poor shall yourselves find blessing.
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post #29 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 10:48 AM
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So, what's the point of the 3 reserved empty posts? Why not just edit the first one?

Well, whatever...

--

I like that definition of low priced: < 500



Not.

I agree, the price must hit US$199 to matter.

I also expect Toshibas to more consistently hit $299 near Xmas.
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post #30 of 1657 Old 05-05-2007, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emptychair View Post

...Even better would be $149 (or less) and at $99 they will literally fly out the door.

Oh, I'd pay much more than $99 for THAT.
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