What will the MSRP of the HD-A3 be when it launches? - AVS Forum
View Poll Results: When the HD-A3 launches, the MSRP will be:
$299 58 60.42%
$199 25 26.04%
Other 13 13.54%
Voters: 96. You may not vote on this poll

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post #1 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 06:29 AM - Thread Starter
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It wouldn't make sense to announce a lower-priced model 2 months before it launches, but does anything think the HD-A3 will actually launch at $299 MSRP? The A2s are already $250 on Amazon! Of course, they were pretty vague on the press release: Expected Pricing and Expected Availability. IMO: Toshiba has to launch the A3 at $199 and be prepared to hit $149 if sales are falling below expectations. I hate to say make or break, but almost everyone quoted (retailers, publishers, industry experts, etc) agree that this holiday is crucial for the format.
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post #2 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 06:33 AM
 
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MSRP's as listed in the announcement:

A3 - $299

A30 - $399

A35 - $499

The street price (as you are quoting Amazon) will probably be the same as the A2
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post #3 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 07:49 AM
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$249

Joe V.
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post #4 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 07:58 AM
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Whatever left over materials are available for the A2 will be assembled and sent in to the market. They will temporarily fill the $199 street pice. The A3 will street less then $299 but won't MSRP for $199 until 2008. I suspect you will see plenty of the A3 at, near, or slightly under $199 on the street in December.

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post #5 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 08:15 AM
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As Lee pointed out, they already listed the MSRP at $299.
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post #6 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 08:23 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

As Lee pointed out, they already listed the MSRP at $299.

They specifically used the words "Expected Pricing" in the press release, which tells me it is not set in stone.
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post #7 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 08:26 AM - Thread Starter
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Why did a $149 Sega Genesis outsell the $199 SNES? (Nintendo had more 3rd party support)
Why do 720p TVs vastly outsell 1080p TVs? (1080p TVs are obviously better)
Why does PS2 still outsell PS3 10 to 1? (PS2 is last gen while PS3 is the future)

It's not about features, it's not about studio support, it's about price! If 8 out of 10 will buy a 720p TV, then I say 8 out of 10 will buy HD DVD over Blu-ray. The key is for HD DVD to get the message out that HD DVD does all that Blu-ray can do, and more, but for hundreds less. Launch G3 models at $199, $299 & $399 - go for the kill!
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post #8 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 08:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

Why did a $149 Sega Genesis outsell the $199 SNES? (Nintendo had more 3rd party support)
Why do 720p TVs vastly outsell 1080p TVs? (1080p TVs are obviously better)
Why does PS2 still outsell PS3 10 to 1? (PS2 is last gen while PS3 is the future)

It's not about features, it's not about studio support, it's about price! If 8 out of 10 will buy a 720p TV, then I say 8 out of 10 will buy HD DVD over Blu-ray. The key is for HD DVD to get the message out that HD DVD does all that Blu-ray can do, and more, but for hundreds less. Launch G3 models at $199, $299 & $399 - go for the kill!

MSRP is just as it sounds. Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price.

What is the MSRP of the A2? Its 399. (started at 499.99)
What is the MSRP of the A20? Its 499.
What is the MSRP of the A2X? Its 699.

Tell me what is the selling price of all three units.
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post #9 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 08:50 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

They specifically used the words "Expected Pricing" in the press release, which tells me it is not set in stone.

So you are speculating that if the S300 is dropped to $399 at the time of the release of the A3 that Toshiba will drop the MSRP to $249 or $199?

Any proof that Sony will lower the S300 to $399? That has to happen first in your theory.
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post #10 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 09:16 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

So you are speculating that if the S300 is dropped to $399 at the time of the release of the A3 that Toshiba will drop the MSRP to $249 or $199?

Any proof that Sony will lower the S300 to $399? That has to happen first in your theory.

I think the HD-A3 should launch at $199 no matter what Sony does with the BDP-S300.

There are really no upgrades for the A3 model over the A2 (as far as we know). People can already buy an A2 for $250 on Amazon, so I don't see much impact by launching at $299. It may save Toshiba a few bucks, but where's the consumer incentive? New shiny casing?

Launch at $199, make a splash, grab some headlines, get some "must buy" reviews make an impact.
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post #11 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 09:27 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

I think the HD-A3 should launch at $199 no matter what Sony does with the BDP-S300.

There are really no upgrades for the A3 model over the A2 (as far as we know). People can already buy an A2 for $250 on Amazon, so I don't see much impact by launching at $299. It may save Toshiba a few bucks, but where's the consumer incentive? New shiny casing?

Launch at $199, make a splash, grab some headlines, get some "must buy" reviews make an impact.

And leave $100 on a table? Almost 1/2 of all CE products sell between 11/24 and 12/31 . . THAT is the time to lower the MSRP to $199 - not before hand. The tooling has to be paid off. Giving that $100 away just makes it longer to do so.
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post #12 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 09:55 AM
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It seems to me, that new technology, as it goes through re designs and new generations must do two things:

1)Add Features and Reliability
2)Lower Price

The HD-A3, from what I can tell, doesn't add any features to what the HD-A2 had, except for the fact that it looks slicker. However if it doesn't take 40 seconds to turn on, that would be much appreciated.

So for the price to remain the same at $299 seems absolutely ridiculous.

The only reason I can think of for this, is that they know a chinese HD-DVD player will come out at around the same time in October, and will cost $199.

Which is really what Toshiba needs, because Toshiba has always been a middle of the road brand, not the cheap brand, so Toshiba needs a cheap player to undercut the HD-A3 anyway.
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post #13 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 10:02 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

And leave $100 on a table? Almost 1/2 of all CE products sell between 11/24 and 12/31 . . THAT is the time to lower the MSRP to $199 - not before hand. The tooling has to be paid off. Giving that $100 away just makes it longer to do so.

Leave $100 on the table or leave $300 on the shelf because they are not selling? What if they launch at $299 and are ignored by consumers and panned by critics as "nothing new?" The momentum they could have built up heading into the holiday season would have been lost.

If all things were equal, I would agree at $299, but HD DVD is playing catch up and I think they need to be more dramatic. Even outselling Blu-ray standalones by 100k or 200k is not going to be enough because we can count on 1.5 to 2.5 million PS3s being sold.

At $199, A3s will probably sell out, imagine the free press that buys... what if it becomes like Wii, a product so hot they fly off the shelves and Toshiba can't manufacture enough? Why not go for broke?
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post #14 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 10:08 AM
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$249

Just right for the launch of a new player ($50 less than the HD-A2)
Leaves enough wiggle room for the holiday (Down to $199 for Nov. + Dec. and $149 on black friday)
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post #15 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 10:10 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

Leave $100 on the table or leave $300 on the shelf because they are not selling? What if they launch at $299 and are ignored by consumers and panned by critics as "nothing new?" The momentum they could have built up heading into the holiday season would have been lost.

If all things were equal, I would agree at $299, but HD DVD is playing catch up and I think they need to be more dramatic. Even outselling Blu-ray standalones by 100k or 200k is not going to be enough because we can count on 1.5 to 2.5 million PS3s being sold.

At $199, A3s will probably sell out, imagine the free press that buys... what if it becomes like Wii, a product so hot they fly off the shelves and Toshiba can't manufacture enough? Why not go for broke?

The demand for the A2 has been very strong if you accept Amazon ranking. The A3 will be available on 10/1/07. That is 7 weeks before Black Friday. Selling 15,000 players per week leaves $1 million on the table. There will be no mad rush to buy players in that 7 week time period.

Toshiba ONLY cares about maintaining the price lead over the BDA. And so far there is only one BD player to be concerned about - the S300. All the other BD players are priced higher starting at $549. People are going to be buying the PS3 as a game console this Xmas - not a BD player. Too many choices of players out there.

You lower your price when the time is right . . and 10/1 is not the right time.
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post #16 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 10:28 AM
 
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Street prices:

A3 - $199-$249

A30 - $299-$329

A35 - $399-$450
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post #17 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 10:41 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

The demand for the A2 has been very strong if you accept Amazon ranking. The A3 will be available on 10/1/07. That is 7 weeks before Black Friday. Selling 15,000 players per week leaves $1 million on the table. There will be no mad rush to buy players in that 7 week time period.

Toshiba ONLY cares about maintaining the price lead over the BDA. And so far there is only one BD player to be concerned about - the S300. All the other BD players are priced higher starting at $549. People are going to be buying the PS3 as a game console this Xmas - not a BD player. Too many choices of players out there.

You lower your price when the time is right . . and 10/1 is not the right time.

I guess we just disagree that's OK :-)

Yes, they may lose $1 million dollars if they launch at $199, but they'll also probably get $10 million dollars in free publicity, great reviews, selling out, creating demand, etc...

In the Chicago area, 10 years ago or so, a new casino riverboat opened for business. Within a month, someone won a $3 million dollar jackpot playing slots. It was all over the press, their attendance exploded and within a month, they probably made ten times the $3 million they gave away. That's making a splash! They could have run ads saying they pay out 10% more on average than other casinos, but I doubt it would have had the same impact.

Launch at $199, sell out, capture the headlines and make it the must have, I can't believe it only costs that much product of the holiday. Do it in October, so it's in all of the magazines and on all of the Christmas lists for November & December.
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post #18 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 11:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

I guess we just disagree that's OK :-)

Yes, they may lose $1 million dollars if they launch at $199, but they'll also probably get $10 million dollars in free publicity, great reviews, selling out, creating demand, etc...

In the Chicago area, 10 years ago or so, a new casino riverboat opened for business. Within a month, someone won a $3 million dollar jackpot playing slots. It was all over the press, their attendance exploded and within a month, they probably made ten times the $3 million they gave away. That's making a splash! They could have run ads saying they pay out 10% more on average than other casinos, but I doubt it would have had the same impact.

Launch at $199, sell out, capture the headlines and make it the must have, I can't believe it only costs that much product of the holiday. Do it in October, so it's in all of the magazines and on all of the Christmas lists for November & December.

Yes we agree to disagree. Here is something that might help you to see where I am coming from. Also that I have been in sales for 25 years. And you are over-estimating the interest in HDM, along with over-estimating the size of the market for potential HDM buyers. If you think it is anyone with an HDTV of which there are 52 million . . . only 10% to 15% are actually watching HD on their HDTV. Those are the only people who will consider an HD movie player.

Keep in mind that the movie prices are almost 2X the price of the DVD in many cases. Cheap players and expensive movies is not going to help HDM grow in huge numbers.

"But despite the mounting pressure, Universal is still adamant in supporting HD-DVD. Ken Graffeo, executive vice president for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said that Toshiba's HD-DVD players are now enjoying 70% market share. However, it should be noted that one of the causes of Blu-ray's traction is that it was built into the PlayStation 3 consoles."

http://gadgets.qj.net/tags/ken-graffeo/13470

Dated 7/18/07
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post #19 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 11:40 AM
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"""""""""it should be noted that one of the causes of Blu-ray's traction is that it was built into the PlayStation 3 consoles."""""""""

LOL, ONE OF THE CAUSES????? Try the only cause.

If the PS3 didn't play Blu Ray Discs, the weekly sales would be about 85%-15% in HD-DVD's favor.
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post #20 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

It wouldn't make sense to announce a lower-priced model 2 months before it launches, but does anything think the HD-A3 will actually launch at $299 MSRP? The A2s are already $250 on Amazon! Of course, they were pretty vague on the press release: Expected Pricing and Expected Availability. IMO: Toshiba has to launch the A3 at $199 and be prepared to hit $149 if sales are falling below expectations. I hate to say make or break, but almost everyone quoted (retailers, publishers, industry experts, etc) agree that this holiday is crucial for the format.

You seem to be confusing MSRP with street price. The MSRP will always be higher in the absence of strict price controls by the manufacturer. $250 at Amazon (or even $200) would have no bearing on the A3 MSRP.
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post #21 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

They specifically used the words "Expected Pricing" in the press release, which tells me it is not set in stone.

Absolutely true -- but I'll wager that the A3 MSRP will not be lower than already announced before inventories of the A2 have been sold.
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post #22 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 11:56 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrevorS View Post

You seem to be confusing MSRP with street price. The MSRP will always be higher in the absence of strict price controls by the manufacturer. $250 at Amazon (or even $200) would have no bearing on the A3 MSRP.

No, I know the difference between MSRP & Street price. Walk in to Best Buy, Sears, CC, etc... most stores sell on the MSRP. My point is the same: a G3 model with the same exact features and the same MSRP will do little to excite the market.
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post #23 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Yes we agree to disagree. Here is something that might help you to see where I am coming from. Also that I have been in sales for 25 years. And you are over-estimating the interest in HDM, along with over-estimating the size of the market for potential HDM buyers. If you think it is anyone with an HDTV of which there are 52 million . . . only 10% to 15% are actually watching HD on their HDTV. Those are the only people who will consider an HD movie player.

Keep in mind that the movie prices are almost 2X the price of the DVD in many cases. Cheap players and expensive movies is not going to help HDM grow in huge numbers.

"But despite the mounting pressure, Universal is still adamant in supporting HD-DVD. Ken Graffeo, executive vice president for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said that Toshiba's HD-DVD players are now enjoying 70% market share. However, it should be noted that one of the causes of Blu-ray's traction is that it was built into the PlayStation 3 consoles."

http://gadgets.qj.net/tags/ken-graffeo/13470

Dated 7/18/07

i guess i will disagree with this assessment. The potential market is not just the 10-15% of people who currently watch HD on their HDTVs (what is covered here? OTA, digital media, hi-def cable?), it is the full market of HDTV owners. The information/word of mouth just has to get out there to the consumer. If you can show the consumer the benefit and value, they will buy. Just because they aren't watching it now does not mean they won't watch later. i am sure there is probably a larger group 20-30% who would go HD but are waiting for price (the current value is not there for them). In other words i see the demand being much more elastic among "non-HD" HDTV owners. This is where price plays a huge factor ($149.99 will be huge.) Toshiba wants to reach out/appeal to the owners of HDTV who are not enjoying HD (like me if you do not include over the air broadcasts and QAM cable.) i want to jump in, i just can't psychologically do it for more than $200. As for the prices, i am not seeing the 100% mark-up (most DVDs i see are in the $19.99 range for new releases B&M as low as $15.99 Amazon, HD DVD are about the same, however i am not factoring in loss-leaders and clearance promos.) The HDM pricing is a function of several prices - manufacturer/studio, wholesale, end retailer. i guess you would see most of the consumer price mark-up in the retail end (my guess is that retail do not think they will get the volume - key point, so they charge higher prices for the media. If they can get adequate volume, there is no reason not to expect the prices to come down.) i fully expect DVD prices to increase in the future to push more HDM.

What ever happened with MSRP? That used to be an inflated number to make you think you were getting a better deal, now stores try to sell you at that price point. MSRP stays $299.99, but street probably $199.99-$249.99. The HD-A2 price is really the one to watch with this new SKU.
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post #24 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

No, I know the difference between MSRP & Street price. Walk in to Best Buy, Sears, CC, etc... most stores sell on the MSRP. My point is the same: a G3 model with the same exact features and the same MSRP will do little to excite the market.

Fair enough! To me it's a question of timing. It's very unlikely Toshiba would lower the MSRP before the A2 has been cleared out. Otherwise, the A3 will be competing with the discounted A2 -- bad move!
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post #25 of 26 Old 08-07-2007, 01:21 PM - Thread Starter
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I see the A2 on Amazon has dropped to #146, it was in the 40s and 50s just a week ago. It is also no longer the #1 high-def player on Circuit City.

There are still 2 months before the A3 launches and it looks like a lot of people are now waiting. HD DVD cannot afford 2 months of slow sales. If I were Toshiba I would knock the MSRP to $249, annouce the A3 at $199, and make the clear distinction that the $249 will get you 5 free movies and the $199 won't.
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post #26 of 26 Old 08-08-2007, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

I see the A2 on Amazon has dropped to #146, it was in the 40s and 50s just a week ago. It is also no longer the #1 high-def player on Circuit City.

There are still 2 months before the A3 launches and it looks like a lot of people are now waiting. HD DVD cannot afford 2 months of slow sales. If I were Toshiba I would knock the MSRP to $249, annouce the A3 at $199, and make the clear distinction that the $249 will get you 5 free movies and the $199 won't.

i was just about to cave in and pay $220-230 for a player for my birthday . However, when i checked the prices had increased to $250+ (i know it's kind of strange $20-30 mean so much to me subconsciously, now i guess i'm back waiting for a $199.99 player.) The lack of sales at AMZN is likely the result of these higher prices (most likely price sensitivity.)

i like your $199.99 without "free" movies idea. If i were Toshiba, i would knock the HD-A2 MSRP down another $50-100 within the next month (clear inventory, sales spike) or discount the price based on number of discs purchased (ie 2 disc purchased = $10 off player price with the limit being the player price - maybe mail-in rebate, maybe AMZN checkout special.) i would greatly prefer the discount for titles purchased rather than the free moives (a choice would be awesome.) However, it seems that the HD-A2 will play a big part in Toshiba's plan for Q4 (especially pricing.) Toshiba is still manufacturing the HD-A2, correct? Now that i think about it, $249.99 is a better intro MSRP for the new entry-level model.
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