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post #1 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 06:03 PM - Thread Starter
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This title is from a blog ( http://www.tomrichmond.com/blog/?p=1301 ) comparing Hd and Blu. Might be too big to post in its entirety. Here's what I thought was interesting.

"...
The PS3 has been a disappointment for studios who bought Sony's sales pitch that it would sell like the PS2 did, and that would put a Blu-Ray movie player in 10 million homes practically overnight. Because of it's enoromous price and lack of specific games, the PS3 hasn't done nearly as well as expected in sales anyway, but a bigger issue is the small number of owners who actually use it as a Blu-Ray player. Consider this: even though thanks to the PS3 Blu-Ray enjoys a 6:1 advantage in players sold, their disks are only outselling HD-DVD's by 2:1. Why? Obviously most of the PS3 owner's out there use it for gaming and don't buy or watch movies on it. Meanwhile every single HD-DVD player sold (including the XBOX 360 add-on drive) has only one purpose: to watch HD-DVD movies. Hence their buyers also buy movies. Blu-Ray also is not a finished technology', meaning players sold today do not have the final specs promised by the technology. They have no internet connectivity, do not support PIP, etc. HD-DVD had all features ready hardware-wise and has completed firmware specs even with their first players. Studios are starting to look cross-eyed at Sony, and that probably had as much to do with Paramount and Dreamworks decision as the money that changed hands did.

All that stuff is interesting, but it's not technology that will decide the war, it's economics. Geeks buy early but it's Joe Six Packs that buy forever, and what matter to them is price and content. HD-DVD is the more mature product, and costs drop as products mature. HD-DVD players can be purchased today for as little as $240.00, whereas the cheapest Blu-Ray player is still well over $400.00. The electronics market is a 4th quarter market, and this holiday season will go a long way to deciding this war. When Joe Six Pack hits the Best Buy's, Wal-Marts and Targets in November and HD-DVD players are priced at less than $200.00, they are going to fly off the shelves compared to BD players which will likely still be around $400.00. The hardware advantage BD enjoys thanks to the PS3 will shrink, and the attach rate (disk buying) of every stand alone HD-DVD player is gigantic compared to the PS3. I would not be surprised to see HD DVD take over software sales leads once all those HD DVD players are hooked up in January."

...
"One way or another, there will be an HD format for home video. Consumers want it and will buy it when it's priced right. Maybe this war will last so long that it will be neither Blu Ray nor HD-DVD, but it will happen. Personally I've thought all along HD-DVD would win based on their mature product and more aggressive pricing. Studio support has been their achilles heel (that and a lack of aggressive marketing, since corrected), and the P/DW announcement helps there.

Now rumors swirl that Warner Brothers, right now a neutral studio, might go HD-DVD exclusive. IMO, If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, there will be a lot of mainstream publicity over it. The public perception will be of rats deserting a sinking ship just as the holiday season is upon us. I think that will push people over the edge to HD-DVD this holiday season by a very large margin. All it would take after that is Disney going neutral not exclusive but just neutral, before the Q4 2008, and Blu Ray might as well wave the white flag.

It's not over yet, but HD-DVD is starting to deliver some solid body blows. I think another studio will either go from neutral to HD-DVD exclusive, or more likely one of the Blu-Ray studios will go neutral. If that happens Blu-Ray will find it hard to recover."
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post #2 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post

This title is from a blog ( http://www.tomrichmond.com/blog/?p=1301 ) comparing Hd and Blu. Might be too big to post in its entirety. Here's what I thought was interesting.

"...
The PS3 has been a disappointment for studios who bought Sony's sales pitch that it would sell like the PS2 did, and that would put a Blu-Ray movie player in 10 million homes practically overnight. Because of it's enoromous price and lack of specific games, the PS3 hasn't done nearly as well as expected in sales anyway, but a bigger issue is the small number of owners who actually use it as a Blu-Ray player. Consider this: even though thanks to the PS3 Blu-Ray enjoys a 6:1 advantage in players sold, their disks are only outselling HD-DVD's by 2:1. Why? Obviously most of the PS3 owner's out there use it for gaming and don't buy or watch movies on it. Meanwhile every single HD-DVD player sold (including the XBOX 360 add-on drive) has only one purpose: to watch HD-DVD movies. Hence their buyers also buy movies. Blu-Ray also is not a finished technology', meaning players sold today do not have the final specs promised by the technology. They have no internet connectivity, do not support PIP, etc. HD-DVD had all features ready hardware-wise and has completed firmware specs even with their first players. Studios are starting to look cross-eyed at Sony, and that probably had as much to do with Paramount and Dreamworks decision as the money that changed hands did.

All that stuff is interesting, but it's not technology that will decide the war, it's economics. Geeks buy early but it's Joe Six Packs that buy forever, and what matter to them is price and content. HD-DVD is the more mature product, and costs drop as products mature. HD-DVD players can be purchased today for as little as $240.00, whereas the cheapest Blu-Ray player is still well over $400.00. The electronics market is a 4th quarter market, and this holiday season will go a long way to deciding this war. When Joe Six Pack hits the Best Buy's, Wal-Marts and Targets in November and HD-DVD players are priced at less than $200.00, they are going to fly off the shelves compared to BD players which will likely still be around $400.00. The hardware advantage BD enjoys thanks to the PS3 will shrink, and the attach rate (disk buying) of every stand alone HD-DVD player is gigantic compared to the PS3. I would not be surprised to see HD DVD take over software sales leads once all those HD DVD players are hooked up in January."

...
"One way or another, there will be an HD format for home video. Consumers want it and will buy it when it's priced right. Maybe this war will last so long that it will be neither Blu Ray nor HD-DVD, but it will happen. Personally I've thought all along HD-DVD would win based on their mature product and more aggressive pricing. Studio support has been their achilles heel (that and a lack of aggressive marketing, since corrected), and the P/DW announcement helps there.

Now rumors swirl that Warner Brothers, right now a neutral studio, might go HD-DVD exclusive. IMO, If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, there will be a lot of mainstream publicity over it. The public perception will be of rats deserting a sinking ship just as the holiday season is upon us. I think that will push people over the edge to HD-DVD this holiday season by a very large margin. All it would take after that is Disney going neutral not exclusive but just neutral, before the Q4 2008, and Blu Ray might as well wave the white flag.

It's not over yet, but HD-DVD is starting to deliver some solid body blows. I think another studio will either go from neutral to HD-DVD exclusive, or more likely one of the Blu-Ray studios will go neutral. If that happens Blu-Ray will find it hard to recover."

A very good read. Thank you for posting.

HD DVD, the mature choice...
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post #3 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 06:36 PM
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I can't tell you how excited I would be if Warner would make the move to exclusivity! C'mon Warner, finish him!
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post #4 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad386 View Post

I can't tell you how excited I would be if Warner would make the move to exclusivity! C'mon Warner, FINISH HIM! (Mortal Kombat Voice)

Fixed
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post #5 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:02 PM
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Good find. Yet another positive article for HD DVD.
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post #6 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:04 PM
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Little premature for this kinda stuff imo.
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post #7 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:18 PM
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Pretty much stuff we already knew. But it's good there are sane people on the internet who are immune to or have broken free of the Sony brainwashing.

HD-DVD is gaining momentum. HD-DVD player owners buy more movies. And the players are coming down quickly in price. All are good things for HDM in general.

This summer (May07) when I jumped into HD-DVD all I said was give it 6 months, see how things look then.....

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post #8 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:50 PM
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warner doesn't need to even go exclusive, just do the combo only releases for HD DVD/DVD and let the sales/demand speak for itself
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post #9 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:55 PM
 
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OY! What is this the 10 million'th thread belittling one format vs. the other (or attempting to explain away one vs. the other)....dear GOD make this format war crap end so we don't have to see anymore of these kind of thread!!

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post #10 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 07:56 PM
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Fairly accurate, but who is this guy? I've never heard of him.
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post #11 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 08:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Fairly accurate, but who is this guy? I've never heard of him.


Therein lies the rub!! Another blogger touting the death of one format and the rise of another....I am strongly supporting and rooting for HD DVD..but in all fairness...when joe noname writes a blog extolling the virtues of BD,it is
tossed aside lightly with trashing comments....Yet,OTOH,when a positive article regarding HD DVD is written ...well,read the above comments...
Just trying to be fair and put things in perpesctive...IMO,if a single blogger influences the buying decision of a consumer....that consumer needs to have his mental wiring checked..
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post #12 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 08:53 PM
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BD? Death Knell? WHy would it be when they sell more software than HD-DVD??

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post #13 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 09:07 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Fairly accurate, but who is this guy? I've never heard of him.

He's Tom Richmond, illustrator. I've not heard of him before. He has a 'It's All Geek to Me!' Category in his blog.

a link to his Bio
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post #14 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 09:13 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mpalmieri1203 View Post

BD? Death Knell? WHy would it be when they sell more software than HD-DVD??

I would suggest you read his whole piece. Death Knell for Blu-Ray? I only pasted a few excerpts.
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post #15 of 41 Old 08-26-2007, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mpalmieri1203 View Post

BD? Death Knell? WHy would it be when they sell more software than HD-DVD??

Blu-ray is selling more software because they have far more players in homes.

Warner has already been VERY critical of BD performance with the following vocal complaints.

1. Low attach rate.

2. Incomplete specs.

And I'm sure that they are worried about many of the same things Paramount/DW brought up;

1. Difficulty of programming BD-J compared to HDi
2. Extra cost of BD media production
3. BD50 replication capabilities once capacity needs to be in the millions per week.

Any studio going neutral or exclusive at this point would simply say to the BDA.... look, you had your chance and you did NOT sell 10M PS3s in the first 3 quarters, you did NOT squash HD DVD, and your costs have NOT come down far enough.

I'm sure that it bothers studios as well to line the pockets of one of their direct competitors. Sony is in the movie business and is now trying to build the dominant movie format for the next 10 yrs. MS/Toshiba are NOT in the movie business. They are in the hardware/software business.
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post #16 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 06:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Blu-ray is selling more software because they have far more players in homes.

Warner has already been VERY critical of BD performance with the following vocal complaints.

1. Low attach rate.

2. Incomplete specs.

And I'm sure that they are worried about many of the same things Paramount/DW brought up;

1. Difficulty of programming BD-J compared to HDi
2. Extra cost of BD media production
3. BD50 replication capabilities once capacity needs to be in the millions per week.

Any studio going neutral or exclusive at this point would simply say to the BDA.... look, you had your chance and you did NOT sell 10M PS3s in the first 3 quarters, you did NOT squash HD DVD, and your costs have NOT come down far enough.

I'm sure that it bothers studios as well to line the pockets of one of their direct competitors. Sony is in the movie business and is now trying to build the dominant movie format for the next 10 yrs. MS/Toshiba are NOT in the movie business. They are in the hardware/software business.

Excellent points. Both Paramount and Warner have taken a long hard look at both formats and their long-term prospects. HD DVD is a complete format. Blu-ray is not. Warner is planning lots of interactive features for HD DVD. Their site promotes the HD DVD interactive experience, including online features (requiring a network connection).

It remains to be seen whether any Blu-ray standalone players made this year will comply with BD 1.1, much less BD 2.0. Any postponement of these implementations will cool studio enthusiasm for Blu-ray. There is nothing in their promotions that indicates that customers will be satisfied with "just the movie" and no extras.

BD-J has been a headache from the start. Like everything else Blu-ray, it adds to the cost of both hardware and software development. IMHO, Sun was taken on board by the BDA because of a political rift with Microsoft. Any BD 1.1 compliant player will cost more to manufacture, at a time when costs and prices should come down, not up.

Perhaps a $299 Funai BD player, fully loaded and ready for BD 1.1, will save the day for Blu-ray this holiday season. It will still not have to be network capable, and it will still not support web interactive features. A $199 Toshiba A3 will do all of that. It is a mature third generation product that will be produced with economies of scale and proven technology.

It is unfortunate that Blu-ray's delays in implementing crucial cost reductions and popular interactive features could lead to their becoming the "incredible shrinking format." No doubt, some of these problems and delays are due to political bias against Microsoft (HDi and VC-1). But I think a bigger problem for them has been the need for Sony to exercise control and dominance over every aspect of the format, from hardware marketing to software replication. I think that both studios and CE manufacturers are looking at the long-term implications of a Sony dominated, PS3 Blu-ray landscape.
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post #17 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 06:42 AM
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Lets not fall into the same trap BD has made since January. Constant crying wolf of the war is over we won..

Give it some more time, at least this Holiday season before stating who's going to win.
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post #18 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 06:50 AM
 
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Good find, thanks for sharing.
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post #19 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 06:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poolrad View Post

Lets not fall into the same trap BD has made since January. Constant crying wolf of the war is over we won..

Give it some more time, at least this Holiday season before stating who's going to win.

I agree.

This article is all speculative and it's no different than what Bill Hunt writes, except that it claims HD DVD is the winner.

Don't let rumors or conjectures get your hopes up. Relax, enjoy HD and let's wait and see what J6P buys this Christmas.

This format war is far from over.

Blu-ray + HD DVD = Bliss.
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post #20 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post

Excellent points. Both Paramount and Warner have taken a long hard look at both formats and their long-term prospects. HD DVD is a complete format. Blu-ray is not. Warner is planning lots of interactive features for HD DVD. Their site promotes the HD DVD interactive experience, including online features (requiring a network connection).

It remains to be seen whether any Blu-ray standalone players made this year will comply with BD 1.1, much less BD 2.0. Any postponement of these implementations will cool studio enthusiasm for Blu-ray. There is nothing in their promotions that indicates that customers will be satisfied with "just the movie" and no extras.

BD-J has been a headache from the start. Like everything else Blu-ray, it adds to the cost of both hardware and software development. IMHO, Sun was taken on board by the BDA because of a political rift with Microsoft. Any BD 1.1 compliant player will cost more to manufacture, at a time when costs and prices should come down, not up.

Perhaps a $299 Funai BD player, fully loaded and ready for BD 1.1, will save the day for Blu-ray this holiday season. It will still not have to be network capable, and it will still not support web interactive features. A $199 Toshiba A3 will do all of that. It is a mature third generation product that will be produced with economies of scale and proven technology.

It is unfortunate that Blu-ray's delays in implementing crucial cost reductions and popular interactive features could lead to their becoming the "incredible shrinking format." No doubt, some of these problems and delays are due to political bias against Microsoft (HDi and VC-1). But I think a bigger problem for them has been the need for Sony to exercise control and dominance over every aspect of the format, from hardware marketing to software replication. I think that both studios and CE manufacturers are looking at the long-term implications of a Sony dominated, PS3 Blu-ray landscape.

Great post!
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post #21 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 07:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poolrad View Post

Lets not fall into the same trap BD has made since January. Constant crying wolf of the war is over we won..

Give it some more time, at least this Holiday season before stating who's going to win.

You are quite right. No one is going to win or lose for quite a while. But I do think that Blu-ray has inflicted some severe and needless blows on itself. If BD 1.1 standalone players aren't announced at CEDIA and on the shelves during the holiday season at a low price, then Blu-ray may be on its way to becoming a PS3 only format sometime in the future. For the time being, given their huge investment, I believe Panasonic will remain exclusive to BD, and perhaps Pioneer is comfortable with its boutique status and will remain BD exclusive. (By the way, what happened to the Hitachi BD player? And the Denon $2000 player?) But Samsung and LG are headed for the mass-market, high-volume profits of HD DVD, and it remains to be seen what other CE shoes will fall at CEDIA. Warner will not have to make any announcements. They will continue to do their best product development on HD DVD and port some of these goodies to Blu-ray. They do not have to become HD DVD exclusive, just remain HD DVD "mostly."

What I think Blu-ray will have to do within the next few months to improve their standing:

1. Get low-priced BD 1.1 (even 2.0) players into production. By low-priced, I mean $299 or less.

2. Counter consumer reaction to incomplete specs by offering to upgrade hardware of present standalone players or offer a trade-in allowance for their old player.

3. Allow studios more assistance in implementing interactive features.

4. Get Warner to behave in a more neutral way.

5. Get rid of the PS3 image and acquire a home theater image. That means selling standalone players in huge numbers.

6. Tone down inflammatory rhetoric and press releases.

7. Make BD50 easier to produce on less expensive equipment.

8. Slash prices on software.

9. Get Fox (and MGM) to crank out more movies.

10. Postpone implementation of BD+ rather than implementation of BD 1.1 and 2.0. (The first benefits studios; the second benefits studios and consumers.)

11. Use red packaging. (Okay, so I like red better than blue.)
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post #22 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 07:26 AM
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I hope not.
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post #23 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 07:32 AM
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I hope not.

Okay, they can keep the blue packaging.
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post #24 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ab2ab View Post

A very good read. Thank you for posting.

HD DVD, the mature choice...

not from what I read on these forums by members.
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post #25 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by HD-king View Post

not from what I read on these forums by members.

Mature products can be owned by immature persons. Or did you mean something else?

Of course, immature products can be owned by immature persons as well.

In any case, Blu-ray specs are not grown up as yet; whereas, HD DVD specs are.

Blu-ray has a chance to rectify this situation, and I think they ought to very quickly.

I am hopeful the CEDIA will announce mature Blu-ray products at a consumer-friendly price.
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post #26 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by HD-king View Post

not from what I read on these forums by members.


That's funny. You will notice HD DVD fans being (for the mast part) level headed in discussing HD DVDs prospects.

Not the vitriol tirade of PS3 fanbois screaming "death to HD DVD" that you see over in the PS3, errr, BD forums.
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post #27 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post

You are quite right. No one is going to win or lose for quite a while.

Honestly I'm not so sure about that. history shows first hardware package to break the 200 price point is the one that jumps in sales and goes mainstream. HD will do that probably by the end of september and definitly befroe holiday season.

Blu Ray well hell they'll be doing good to get a player to 299 by black friday. They already more then likely taking a hit money wise as it is.

The issues blu ray has is it simply costs more to manufacture and this is why I think HDDVD will win in the end. You can't get around the fact that you have to build specilize plants and the actual manufacturing process costs more. On the other hand HDDVD can be built out of the same DVD plants. This saves a lot of money. Right now sony is eating costs subsidizing the manufacture process for studios but that won't last forever and studios realize that.

I just don't see how sony can expect a more expensive format to win in the end especially when there are no real benefits to going blu ray over HD. Any extra you can get in blu-ray is marginal at best and the same goes for HDDVD any benefit over blu-ray is marginal when it comes to mainstream. The only thing that maters to mainstream is that the video quality looks a lot better which means in the end the cheapest format wins.

Anyway just my thoughts I plan on picking up a ps3 probably in novemberish time frame so I'll be somewhat format neutral I suppose but long term I don't see how blu ray will last longer then the Sony Minidics did or laser discs did.

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post #28 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Missions View Post

I agree.

This article is all speculative and it's no different than what Bill Hunt writes, except that it claims HD DVD is the winner.

Don't let rumors or conjectures get your hopes up. Relax, enjoy HD and let's wait and see what J6P buys this Christmas.

This format war is far from over.

I completely disagree (but not about the format being far from over)! This article has none of the anger and innuendo of Hunt's attack rant. The positive positions of both are discussed and the problems each are encountering are nicely laid out. Much, much less of a bias, albeit perhaps some slanted towards HD DVD, but not even in the same league as Hunt's fanboy diatribe. A much more realistic and objective analysis as to where each format has been and is going. This is the kind of article Hunt should have and could have written if he hadn't been so blinded by rage.

Cheers,

Grant
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post #29 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 10:34 AM
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Good read. Paramount decision was a good one. Basically, the only content released for Blu now exclusively is from Disney and Sony. This is a Universal/Paramount vs. Disney/Sony exclusive game now. Warner maintains its neutrality. And the battle will bring the prices further down.
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post #30 of 41 Old 08-27-2007, 10:47 AM
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No death knell here.

Folks, BD has a substantial software sales advantage because of the PS3. Don't matter if you think that is "fair" or "right". It's still a fact. And I suspect that the Paramount decision will change that some ... but not a huge amount. So if BD continues to outsell HD DVD in the near term (I believe it may), then that format will continue to exist.

I've always thought that HD DVD would eventually win. Still do. But I wouldn't call recent developments a "Death Knell". It's going to take a while. Which is why I'm glad I bought my Panny BD player. I know JSP won't be interested in having two players ... but it sure does make this whole conflict more tolerable.

Hank Brown

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