This title is from a blog ( http://www.tomrichmond.com/blog/?p=1301
) comparing Hd and Blu. Might be too big to post in its entirety. Here's what I thought was interesting.
The PS3 has been a disappointment for studios who bought Sony's sales pitch that it would sell like the PS2 did, and that would put a Blu-Ray movie player in 10 million homes practically overnight. Because of it's enoromous price and lack of specific games, the PS3 hasn't done nearly as well as expected in sales anyway, but a bigger issue is the small number of owners who actually use it as a Blu-Ray player. Consider this: even though thanks to the PS3 Blu-Ray enjoys a 6:1 advantage in players sold, their disks are only outselling HD-DVD's by 2:1. Why? Obviously most of the PS3 owner's out there use it for gaming and don't buy or watch movies on it. Meanwhile every single HD-DVD player sold (including the XBOX 360 add-on drive) has only one purpose: to watch HD-DVD movies. Hence their buyers also buy movies. Blu-Ray also is not a finished technology', meaning players sold today do not have the final specs promised by the technology. They have no internet connectivity, do not support PIP, etc. HD-DVD had all features ready hardware-wise and has completed firmware specs even with their first players. Studios are starting to look cross-eyed at Sony, and that probably had as much to do with Paramount and Dreamworks decision as the money that changed hands did.
All that stuff is interesting, but it's not technology that will decide the war, it's economics. Geeks buy early but it's Joe Six Packs that buy forever, and what matter to them is price and content. HD-DVD is the more mature product, and costs drop as products mature. HD-DVD players can be purchased today for as little as $240.00, whereas the cheapest Blu-Ray player is still well over $400.00. The electronics market is a 4th quarter market, and this holiday season will go a long way to deciding this war. When Joe Six Pack hits the Best Buy's, Wal-Marts and Targets in November and HD-DVD players are priced at less than $200.00, they are going to fly off the shelves compared to BD players which will likely still be around $400.00. The hardware advantage BD enjoys thanks to the PS3 will shrink, and the attach rate (disk buying) of every stand alone HD-DVD player is gigantic compared to the PS3. I would not be surprised to see HD DVD take over software sales leads once all those HD DVD players are hooked up in January."
"One way or another, there will be an HD format for home video. Consumers want it and will buy it when it's priced right. Maybe this war will last so long that it will be neither Blu Ray nor HD-DVD, but it will happen. Personally I've thought all along HD-DVD would win based on their mature product and more aggressive pricing. Studio support has been their achilles heel (that and a lack of aggressive marketing, since corrected), and the P/DW announcement helps there.
Now rumors swirl that Warner Brothers, right now a neutral studio, might go HD-DVD exclusive. IMO, If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, there will be a lot of mainstream publicity over it. The public perception will be of rats deserting a sinking ship just as the holiday season is upon us. I think that will push people over the edge to HD-DVD this holiday season by a very large margin. All it would take after that is Disney going neutral not exclusive but just neutral, before the Q4 2008, and Blu Ray might as well wave the white flag.
It's not over yet, but HD-DVD is starting to deliver some solid body blows. I think another studio will either go from neutral to HD-DVD exclusive, or more likely one of the Blu-Ray studios will go neutral. If that happens Blu-Ray will find it hard to recover."