Originally Posted by Tugela
Ya, 2014 Is going to be the year of 4K for sure. While the impact in terms of consumer titles might not be that dramatic, the impact on the consumer/prosumer video camera market is going to be substantial in terms of visual quality improvements. Most non-professional cameras currently on the market will be obsolete
within a year IMO.
The biggest obstacle for adoption is going to be the bottleneck presented by the speed of reasonably priced storage media however.
No way HD video recording will be obsolete a year from now.
I agree that pros and video enthusiasts will take advantage of being able to crop or down-res the 4K image down to HD in post, but I think mass adoption is going to take a lot longer than SD to HD was, if at all. Meaning "if at all" in that it's possible
, on the larger scale, it may skip from HD past 4K to 8K or whatever the trend after 4K will be, with in the meantime HD video recording still for most people.
SD to HD was a time when camcorders, as a single product with fixed lenses, were the go-to video device. Now many have invested in DSLR or M43 systems with HD video. I doubt they all will suddenly ditch their HD systems. Aren't most of these new 4K devices 'camcorders' and not ILC systems, aren't camcorders out of vogue now?
Also, 4K as a delivery medium is not possible at this point/at least in the U.S. with slow internet speeds and broadcast systems only HD.
(Maybe somewhere like Japan.) 4K TV's may become affordable, but there isn't any content available.
Desktop sales have dropped dramatically. The average consumer is using a tablet or cell phone to consume video. Not only would they have to get a 4K device, but also buy a new desktop or upgrade hardware, if they still have one. Are the people who use cell phones for internet and as their main computing device going to shoot and upload 4K to view it on their tiny cell phone screen?
Also take into account the distance/visibility of 4K vs. HD with TV's - it may be a tough sell.
There are many factors/it will take quite some time. HD is not going obsolete anytime soon.