Originally Posted by rogo
No offense to the "giant screen" proponents, but Irkuck is of course correct and axiomatically so.
The people buying plasmas today in fact are more likely buying them for size/price ratio as a primary consideration. Given that size comes cheaply, there are still relatively few 65-inch plasmas sold.
Why this concept is hard to grasp. I don't know. It's a fact. There is nothing preventing the guy with $2000 to $4000 from buying a 65-inch TV today. And if he wanted size first, he'd of course gravitate to plasma and you can't really even buy a 65-inch LCD right now (maybe Vizio?).
The LCD buyer, contrary to what AVS would have you believe, is not some sort of anti-plasma videophile (well, the AVS LCD buyer on average might be, I am talking actual real people). [b]He / she is also buying a flat panel TV and might have already decided on something like 32 inches (which is certainly the top selling LCD size in the U.S. unless that's 40, which I actually doubt, but haven't seen 2010 numbers).[/]
He can already buy a 52-inch (generally) LCD from name brands for a fair price.
Nothing is going to suddenly make these people want to buy bigger TVs. It's not happening. You can type on your little keyboards that it's going to change over and over, but it won't. If it were, all plasma sales would already be 65 inch sets and all LCD sales would be 52-55 inch sets (and some 60s, which admittedly are often less affordable).
It's of course true that lower price can lead to demand increases. It's also true however that we are near the bottom of the price curve. Check out the MSRPs of all the majors' TVs for 2011. They are pretty much where they were in 2010. Not only did prices not fall 30% this year they appear to be headed for ... the same place they were in 2010.
We have speculated whether 60-inch TVs will be $1000 sometime soon. I've suggested "perhaps never" and explained why elsewhere. Regardless, what's "revolutionary" about Sharp selling a 70-inch TV for $3000 is more or less nothing other than that it now has a cost/meter-squared that is akin to smaller TVs.
If you could get your hands on the percentage of plasmas sold only by Panasonic that are 65 inches, you should be able to accurately determine what percentage of LCDs are sold in similar sizes -- once such LCDs become available again. If you want to look into the future, you can conclude that as the price curve compresses a bit (which I don't believe will really happen, but perhaps on the top end it will, certainly for non-Sharp companies), the mix will very slightly move toward larger sizes.
My guess is that Panasonic sells 5% of their plasmas at 65 and above. My guess is that over time, 65 and above will reach or slightly exceed 10% of the market. As someone pointed out (spec maybe?), that's tens of millions of TVs per year and will sustain a robust market. What it won't do is make 65 inch TVs mainstream. They never have been and nothing about price or availability has been the reason. Ten+ years into the HD area and people only want so much TV in their living room. Even I get that, as the notion of for example an 85-inch is patently silly to me (might be great for you, so enjoy if it is).