Official 70"+ LCD thread - Page 37 - AVS Forum
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post #1081 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 06:05 PM
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@Andy, I actually laughed out loud.

@Spec, Did anyone really doubt the market would be that big? I sure didn't. I think most of us still believe the 70+ range can get to 10% over time. What we "skeptics" don't believe is that anything happening with price is going to make that size mainstream. Heck, all this time later and with 60s readily available below $1500, the mainstream size is 46". That speaks volumes.

As for the Panny 85, it's about time. It seems like that should sell for sub-$3,000 eventually.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1082 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 07:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Heck, all this time later and with 60s readily available below $1500, the mainstream size is 46". That speaks volumes.

Yes, I think that tells us a lot about the size of the rooms where people place their TVs. For many, a 60+er is just too big because they only sit 7 or 8 feet away. Me? Bring on the monsters!
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post #1083 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 08:34 PM
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yes sweet so it is happening wow im also shocked, we were just debating this last week if they could cut the glass that size.

really impressive looks like i will be waiting for an 80inch elite for my home theater room

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post #1084 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 08:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

@Spec, Did anyone really doubt the market would be that big? I sure didn't. I think most of us still believe the 70+ range can get to 10% over time. What we "skeptics" don't believe is that anything happening with price is going to make that size mainstream. Heck, all this time later and with 60s readily available below $1500, the mainstream size is 46". That speaks volumes.

Ya people DID doubt it could be THAT big ie 1%, as recent as 6 months ago before Sharp launched a 70" at sub $3k, because the argument was too big, too ugly on the wall and market size is the RPTV and projector users, etc. I have a post with all the links earlier in this thread. IIRC this 10% figure is relatively new as well as far as this argument goes.

As I posted before, the mean of the normal curve has to progress to >50" for huge size to catch on. And I think 2 standard deviation quantum is >10% so my guess is the market can be substantially bigger than 10%, not tomorrow nor next year but probably within 10 years. But like I have been saying, nobody really knows and Sharp is the ONLY ONE putting money where his mouth is (albeit ridiculously early and bad timing)

80" at reasonable price is interesting to me becuase I have always said that a city dweller likely can accomodate around 80". Do I expect 100" to catch on significantly? I think unlikely. But I think the idea of whether there is a MARKET for huge size ie 70-80" is probably settled.
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post #1085 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 08:49 PM
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The 10% figure is not new. Not from me. I'll go search out the posts when I'm bored. I've made all the "anti" arguments, and yet never disputed the presence of "a market" and the ability for it to eventually grow to 10% of the overall market over several years. For what it's worth, by extension, I believe it can eventually get something beyond the arbitrary 10% barrier, I'm just not sure how much beyond. There are too many physical limitations that exist in most of the non-U.S. world especially, but even in the U.S. MDU market, in furniture, in the nature/layout of a shockingly large number of family rooms, etc. The absolute maximum penetration for giant TVs is well under 1/2 the market and the notion that it will ever reach it's absolute maximum -- whatever that really is -- is quite absurd.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1086 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 08:54 PM
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Just for laugh: I do agree that 80" is not a segment for those who hate BIG NOSES rogo should remember what I'm talking about.

BTW for completeness, in reality as a stock Sharp is down >1/3 in 6 months despite all these excitement.
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post #1087 of 1421 Old 08-23-2011, 10:59 PM
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It's funny, as I read your post, there was a close up of someone's face on my TV and their nose was huge. And I only have a 50" right now. I can only imagine how scary that would've been on an 80".

And, yes, Sharp is not exactly minting money selling ~100,000 70" TVs at low prices, which should surprise no one.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1088 of 1421 Old 08-24-2011, 06:32 PM
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im sure when black friday and christmas/boxing day comes around a lot will sell then

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post #1089 of 1421 Old 08-27-2011, 09:19 AM
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a second review on the new elite by david on on hidefjunkies, hometheatreshack and ****************

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post #1090 of 1421 Old 09-04-2011, 01:13 PM
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Area

55" 1292.58 inches²

65" 1805.34 inches²

70" 2093.77 inches²

80" 2734.72 inches²

70" only 62% larger than 55",

80" is 111.57% larger than 55", 51.48% larger than 65"
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post #1091 of 1421 Old 09-04-2011, 01:34 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ecgz88 View Post
Area

55" 1292.58 inches²

65" 1805.34 inches²

70" 2093.77 inches²

80" 2734.72 inches²

70" only 62% larger than 55",

80" is 111.57% larger than 55", 51.48% larger than 65"
Raw numbers aren't everything. Clarity (a roll-up description implying resolution, contrast, brightness, calibration and processing) is just as important.
With all these stringent condition met, my new Sharp 70" 735 is big enough for average sized room. I am satisfied for the first time. The superb 3D is the icing on the cake. I paid less than Samsung's or Sony MSRP for their 55 inch models.
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post #1092 of 1421 Old 09-04-2011, 08:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

The 735 should be much less reflective than Elite - thus a winner from the point of practical usage of TV.

Really? The 735 less reflective then the more then double the price elite? That does make thst look more appealing. I had a dream of trading in my un65c8000 for a un75d9500 spand then selling a 67" dlp of mine and maybe another 47" lcd to get the sharp 735 (as having the overpriced 75" samsung and the sharp elite would be overkill and elite almodt too nice even for decently nice basement hometheatre used mostly for gaming though possinly more for nightime tv movie viewing once i have a nicer tv there amd since fam room is open to updstsirs where kids and wife are sleeping at night)
But though the sam 75" is being discontinued (just loke they did last year with the 65c8000, which is there way of testing it and then pulling it before they make a new version of it for next year ala 65D8000 and so i assume a 75E?9500 next yearbut just like i got a 65c8000 last year i may try to get a 75d9500 if discontinued means discounted) but if i dint get a sam 75 then i wouod cinsider the x5 70" elite but even though the x5 isnt out yet im already having trouble justifying more then double the price of the 735.
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post #1093 of 1421 Old 09-04-2011, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Just for laugh: I do agree that 80" is not a segment for those who hate BIG NOSES rogo should remember what I'm talking about.

BTW for completeness, in reality as a stock Sharp is down >1/3 in 6 months despite all these excitement.

What is their ticker symbol and what exchange is it traded on?
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post #1094 of 1421 Old 09-04-2011, 09:41 PM
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In Japan it is 6753 and in US ADR it is SHCAY for Bloomberg.
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post #1095 of 1421 Old 09-05-2011, 08:36 AM
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the economy sucks in the US right now cant blame the stocks for being down. There selling fast here in canada.

A friend of mine works at best buy and he says their selling well

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post #1096 of 1421 Old 09-05-2011, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HiFiFun View Post

Raw numbers aren't everything. Clarity (a roll-up description implying resolution, contrast, brightness, calibration and processing) is just as important.
With all these stringent condition met, my new Sharp 70" 735 is big enough for average sized room. I am satisfied for the first time. The superb 3D is the icing on the cake. I paid less than Samsung's or Sony MSRP for their 55 inch models.

Same here. I won't thread-crap in the "Kuro Killer" Sharp Elite thread on the X5, but there is no way, shape, or form, that set is worth the price premium over the 735. Not even close.

And not because the X5 isn't incredible, but because a calibrated 735 is nearly as stunning for thousands less...

Extremely happy. Can't wait for them to do an 80" in this set sometime next year (7-series with 3D, not the 6-series that's due soon) and then the 70" can be moved upstairs in the game room.
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post #1097 of 1421 Old 09-08-2011, 09:33 PM
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How long till sharp 80" 735 model (3d)?
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post #1098 of 1421 Old 09-08-2011, 09:50 PM
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To launch by October with a mid range 70" as well to be inline with the Christmas and Chinese New Year season, IF ANYTHING By 1Q next year they will be busy clearing inventory for their March year end rather than launch anything (apart from CES "announcments")

Hopefully the Olympics will help the industry clear inventory.
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post #1099 of 1421 Old 09-09-2011, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quatre View Post

How long till sharp 80" 735 model (3d)?

There won't be a 735 in 2012 and this thing is just available for pre-order at ABT and available within a few weeks and you'll most likely wait a year for the next gen - my bet would be as the 80" is drawn from a budget line it may bring in it's 3D via passive system next Summer/Fall.

I believe Sharp is partnered with others on Passive system in development. They are partnered with CheMei and LG and others for Smart TV and wouldn't be surprised to see them seek passive 3d or glasses free if that's possible for the budget panels. 3D on an 80" panel could truly be immersive kick butt experience.

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post #1100 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 12:46 AM
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I guess this is the better forum to continue the discussion:
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post


Don't have to challenge me. I didn't say that. Sharp management said they are converting.

https://www.semiconportal.com/en/arc...small-lcd.html

Technically 10G can produce 80" cuts MIXED with other cuts like we discussed before. It was irkuck that insist it has to be all same cuts.

But I take your point on the non-quattron panel. I'm just curious what Sharp is trying to do here. Why invest more in 8G for large size when they are converting to small/ medium.

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It can produce mixed cuts (you and I agree), and I did an analysis of how to make that work at the 10G fab. It's not amazing, but if you cut lengthwise, you get 3 x 80 and 4 x 60 off the 10G sheets (assuming I did the math right, it's clearly high-end math)

I'm guessing they are making the 80" panels at Kameyama #2. It's a 2-up with some waste of the motherglass, but not horrible waste. Seems like they can migrate it to the Sakai 10G at some point. If we are to believe the article, it seems like they can keep making those 80s on the 8G for quite a while since the conversion to IGZO for small displays is gradual. And in the meantime, they can ramp up the 80s at Sakai for higher-end units if they decide the market is worth sticking with (likely, they appear headed toward a supply deal with LG and a gradual abandonment of making anything below 60 for TV on their own).

Migration takes downtime on BOTH fab. I'm just wondering why Sharp even bother. Only explanation is that they are hedging their IGZO bet just in case it doesn't pan out as they expected. So the 80" is on 8G for a longer than 12 months basis ie we will see small medium size and 80" mixed cuts out on the 8G.

That seems too sensible Sharp's on a roll. But definitely betting big on huge size TV.
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post #1101 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 01:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

"The 10G glass substrate measuring 3,130 x 2,880mm can be cut efficiently into eight 60-inch panels or six 70-inch panels. "Although 18 40-inch panels can be cut from the 10G substrate, the size did not translate into profitability," said Katayama."

This confirms they are cutting 6x70" which is the secret of low price of their 70" panels. Mixing sizes is much less efficient and I doubt they use it. I rather bet that for making 80" panels they converted older plant (no yellow subpixel for 80") which enables them to make 2 panels from single sheet. Less efficient but the plant is completely amortized so no investment expenses to count. In any case, market for large panels is limited, e.g. there are strong rumors that Sharp X5 70" will not be sold in EUrope. Same with Samsung 65".

err so which fab do you think the CURRENT 60" and 70" panels are coming from? And my previous post on 8G fab doing 80" and small/medium? Which do you disagree: Sharp converting 8G to small medium size or rogo's claim that it's doing 80"?

BTW do check out why even with EIGHTEEN cuts (not to mention 6 cuts) for 40" it doesn't make sense. AGAIN it's not the number of cuts that counts.

So now it buoys down to whether irkuck is right or Sharp is right on huge sizes including 80". I'll put my money on the latter as that's where their money and their mouth is

It's ironic Irkuck that you started a 70"+ thread but don't believe in it
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post #1102 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 04:26 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

err so which fab do you think the CURRENT 60" and 70" panels are coming from? And my previous post on 8G fab doing 80" and small/medium? Which do you disagree: Sharp converting 8G to small medium size or rogo's claim that it's doing 80"?
BTW do check out why even with EIGHTEEN cuts (not to mention 6 cuts) for 40" it doesn't make sense. AGAIN it's not the number of cuts that counts.
So now it buoys down to whether irkuck is right or Sharp is right on huge sizes including 80". I'll put my money on the latter as that's where their money and their mouth is
It's ironic Irkuck that you started a 70"+ thread but don't believe in it

Unable to get to the depth of your thinking . Point is 10G is doing 70" very efficiently which translates into price which others are unable to match. For the 80", 10G is of no help so I think instead of mixing diferent sizes Sharp refurbished old plant to stamp 2 panels from single sheet. Indication for this is that 80" panels have no yellow subpix.

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post #1103 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 04:57 AM
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Do u still believe it is "efficient" because it has 6 cuts? It's volume and utilization.

So what is your logic now that 70" is efficient but 80" is not on 10G?

Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Unable to get to the depth of your thinking . Point is 10G is doing 70" very efficiently which translates into price which others are unable to match. For the 80", 10G is of no help so I think instead of mixing diferent sizes Sharp refurbished old plant to stamp 2 panels from single sheet. Indication for this is that 80" panels have no yellow subpix.

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post #1104 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 09:58 AM
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You seem to be obsessed only with glass waste. Glass waste is but one factor here.

Yes glass waste is but one factor that is computed as a fixed input amongst other variables into yield consideration. I'm not the least obsessed by it as engineers and management already consider that BEFORE they even build a fab. The problem is you are highly mistaken about what are the underlying drivers for your assumptions when you keep saying 10G is more efficient for 70".

That's not to say I don't agree CURRENTLY 10G is most price competitive for 70" but not because it's efficient (older fabs are more efficient). Put in another way: if 10G pumps out 70kX6 70" a month vs a hypothetical mega 8G pumping out 210k X 2 70" a month, which will be more cost effective?

The next logical question would thus be: why this mega 8G plant does not exist? It makes sense if you understand the dynamics.
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post #1105 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 10:39 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

The problem is you are highly mistaken about what are the underlying drivers for your assumptions when you keep saying 10G is more efficient for 70".

That's not to say I don't agree CURRENTLY 10G is most price competitive for 70" but not because it's efficient (older fabs are more efficient). Put in another way: if 10G pumps out 70kX6 70" a month vs a hypothetical mega 8G pumping out 210k X 2 70" a month, which will be more cost effective?

The next logical question would thus be: why this mega 8G plant does not exist? It makes sense if you understand the dynamics.

I am not mistaken. Question what is more efficient: bigger sheets vs. more lines has been answered long ago. This is why manufs prefer bigger sheets and this is why Sammy & Lucky were fumigated from the 70" market this year by Sharp. They were unable to match Sharp pricing.

However, this logic may change with very large displays like the Sharp 80 incher. Market for such beasts is limited and there are older plants which can be modified for making them with little investment. Thus older plant capacity may fit well to the demand.

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post #1106 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 02:38 PM
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So the 70" 735 is LED backlit while the 80" is gonna be LED edge lit? Is backlit much better than edge lit? I'd think backlit would provide a better uniform picture?

I'm soooo close to going ahead and buying the 70" 735 and the added 3D is nice to have incase 3D really starts to catch on, BUT I just cannot stop thinking about how much bigger the 80" will be! Instore the 70" looks huge compared to the 60" right by it and it will be the same exact thing when the 70" is next to the 80". I used to have a 118" front projector setup but no longer have the dedicated theater room. However, I am contemplating getting another projector and somehow coming up with a setup for it in the living room. It's between that or getting either the Sharp 70" 735 or the 80" when it comes out and drops in price some. Right now I am biding my time with a measly 32" samsung el cheapo 60hz lcd. It is way too tiny for me when playing video games and watching movies.

I have had 60" and even 65" sets before and became used to the size quickly and wanted bigger so I'm afraid the 70" will be the same way but perhaps the 80" beast will be just big enough to where I wouldn't have that wanting bigger thought. The wife doesn't want a projector setup in the living room and it would be nice to just get an LED tv and not have to worry about bulb life and that kinda stuff. Plus, with two small children it would be nice to get a big tv and could use it all day and night where everyone can enjoy it all the time.
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post #1107 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 04:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
Unable to get to the depth of your thinking . Point is 10G is doing 70" very efficiently which translates into price which others are unable to match. For the 80", 10G is of no help so I think instead of mixing diferent sizes Sharp refurbished old plant to stamp 2 panels from single sheet. Indication for this is that 80" panels have no yellow subpix.
The point is Sharp is doing 70-inch panels reasonably efficiently enough that they can sell them at $3000 retail.

The further point is, we all agree that some economies of scale are achieved by larger motherglass -- as evidenced by every fab ever being larger than the previous generation.

What you've never proved is that there is something magically about the litho stage on running 6 large 70" panels off a single sheet vs. some combination of panels or whatever.

And the new Sharp 80" belies the claim that there is something magical about producing 6 vs. 2. Furthermore, given LG's abysmal sales this year, if they really wanted to, they could easily do the same thing as Sharp. They were already using a far from state of the art panel in their 72" (that they still can't / won't make generally available and I can accurately speculate on why again, but reality is that it sucks and they've "proved" to themselves there is no market for by pricing it stupidly). No reason they can't also use their 40" lines to make 80s.

Fact is Samsung and LG have always sucked at making big panels. They still suck at it. Sharp -- which had a 65" years ago when no one else could mass produce a 60" -- actually knows how to make big LCDs. This isn't a function of some fab magic, it's a function of actually having whatever kinks are there worked out to make this stuff. It's not shocking that Sharp continues to be able to produce big panels and -- looking back -- it's not really shocking that they made the move to 70" with so much aggressiveness. What's shocking is that LG and Samsung have again failed to even answer the call at 65". (Samsung shipping what appears to be last year's panel with some new window dressing and charging a premium price for a low-end set notwithstanding.)

-------------

For what it's worth, I agree with Spec that Sharp appears to be hedging. But a big part of that is probably that you can't not hedge when one of your big customers for the small screens is going to be Apple. At one point this year, they basically cut off LG as a supplier to the iPad 2 because of backlight issues (light leakage/flashlighting was occurring way too often). The way Apple is buying components is fascinating right now. They are probably already in contract with Sharp for millions of screens and have made some significant cash payments up front. But there is no doubt they also have the right to certain targets on quality, quantity, etc. with guarantees of future payment contingent on meeting those.

If Sharp delivers the goods for Apple, then they will be in good stead on the smaller panels for some years to come. If not, honestly, the move toward retrofitting old lines will fail because they'll be competing with everyone again for the rest of the market (non Apple) which buys almost 100% on price. I like their chances, but we'll see.

Finally, the fact that the giant sheets cutting in 16 40" panels is not a winner is not news. We've heard that before. There is a point at which the additional steps to cut up the glass reduce the efficiency of the fab. Whether that's due to the inevitable breakage that occurs with cutting -- and there is some -- or some other aspect of the process is something I'm unclear on. But there is a diminishing returns on cutting up a sheet into smaller pieces. This again points out that there are many steps involved and the notion that magically patterning 6 of something on a sheet without any other patterning is the sole reason Sharp has economies of scale on 70" panels is simply wrong.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1108 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 05:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Indy
So the 70" 735 is LED backlit while the 80" is gonna be LED edge lit? Is backlit much better than edge lit? I'd think backlit would provide a better uniform picture?
Technically for such a size artifacts like flaslighting and banding would become amplified. Question is by how much and would it be tolerable for the cost conscious consumer. Judging by what Sharp's been doing, I wouldn't be surprised if MSRP is $3500 or less.

I'm keen on 80" because I've been saying max size for city dwellers should be around 80". I'm just surprised it's coming so soon

Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck
I am not mistaken. Question what is more efficient: bigger sheets vs. more lines has been answered long ago. This is why manufs prefer bigger sheets and this is why Sammy & Lucky were fumigated from the 70" market this year by Sharp. They were unable to match Sharp pricing.

However, this logic may change with very large displays like the Sharp 80 incher. Market for such beasts is limited and there are older plants which can be modified for making them with little investment. Thus older plant capacity may fit well to the demand.
Despite mounting anecdotal evidence and multiple posts explaining the industry dynamics, you kept to your circular logic.

U win
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post #1109 of 1421 Old 09-10-2011, 10:06 PM
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60" is 1328*747 mm

70" is 1550*872 mm

80" is 1771*996 mm

10G is 3130*2880 mm

by my calculation 10G can cut 6 70" or 6 60" but not 8 60" (4*747>2880), 10G can just cut 3 80", that's probably why 80" price is 2 times higher than 70" now
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post #1110 of 1421 Old 09-11-2011, 12:37 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

What you've never proved is that there is something magically about the litho stage on running 6 large 70" panels off a single sheet vs. some combination of panels or whatever.

And the new Sharp 80" belies the claim that there is something magical about producing 6 vs. 2. Furthermore, given LG's abysmal sales this year, if they really wanted to, they could easily do the same thing as Sharp. They were already using a far from state of the art panel in their 72" (that they still can't / won't make generally available and I can accurately speculate on why again, but reality is that it sucks and they've "proved" to themselves there is no market for by pricing it stupidly). No reason they can't also use their 40" lines to make 80s.

There is nothing magical in the 6x70", it is economy of scale.
For the 80" there are other factors playing. Economy of scale works best when there is gigantic demand. Then one builds biggest plants possible, churning as many units as possible. With the 80" it is different. There is limited demand. Even if the demand would be huge it is too risky to build plants for very high throughput (e.g. 6x80") due to gargantuan investment costs. The idea is then to refurbish old plant for its maximum output which will be well matched to the demand. In this case, other manufs will be eventually able to match Sharp pricing for the 80".


Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Finally, the fact that the giant sheets cutting in 16 40" panels is not a winner is not news. We've heard that before. There is a point at which the additional steps to cut up the glass reduce the efficiency of the fab. Whether that's due to the inevitable breakage that occurs with cutting -- and there is some -- or some other aspect of the process is something I'm unclear on. But there is a diminishing returns on cutting up a sheet into smaller pieces. This again points out that there are many steps involved and the notion that magically patterning 6 of something on a sheet without any other patterning is the sole reason Sharp has economies of scale on 70" panels is simply wrong.

You emphasize glass cuts too much. Making 40" on too big glass sheets is primarily not economical due to exponentially increasing cost of plant and fastly eroding prices of commodity panels. In this case it is easier to add production lines for smaller sheets than build one gigantic fab.

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