Official 70"+ LCD thread - Page 42 - AVS Forum
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post #1231 of 1421 Old 10-05-2011, 05:28 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Yes tens of thousands will be considered small. Even Pioneer KRP shipped 500k. The difference between you and me is that I think it will GROW to millions. Just like the 70" will be in millions. but they will only be single digit % of global TV market. So are >60" TVs are single % of TVs. Hence it depends on what you mean by small. IMHO if it is >1% market it is not a small market. It is big enough to be a sizable niche.

Projectors been doing 80-100" for a long time with SD. So I don't think it is something that is a major hurdle. As discussed way back, WAF is a possible issue, and wall / elevator size, logistics etc will be main consideration. Which is why I think around 80" should be quite max for a city dweller.

Nonetheless I have always been saying in the 4k thread that for 4K resolution to be successful, huge TV has to be deemed potentially pretty mainstream. But unlikely vice versa. Look at PC monitors and you can track how the resolution will progressively evolve.

As for why Sharp is launching an 80" without even letting 70" simmers, it is likely because they are using the 80" to take up the 8G capacity used to produce Apple's iphone and tablet. Like we discussed, it is a good hedge against single customer risk and "possibly" 80" is a good cut mixed with small/medium size.

Millions of 80" and bigger is a bold prediction. Meaning wide adoption of 'bigger is better' stuff. I still kinda can not believe it, your premise seems to be it is just question of price. I tend to think that even if there would be 80 inchers for 1k$ in shops people would not drop smaller formats and buy monsters instead. Due to the, among others, wifis factor: "Honey, I like it big but this is really too big" .

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post #1232 of 1421 Old 10-05-2011, 06:06 AM
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They only seem big when you first get it. After a few weeks they seem smaller again after you've adjusted to the size increase.

I would love to get the 80" set, but after paying close to $4k for a 61", 1080P DLP set in 2005, I swore I would never pay anywhere near that much for a TV again.

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post #1233 of 1421 Old 10-05-2011, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Low tens of thousands sounds very small, no? If the 80" and bigger will initiate trend towards replacement of RPTV/PJ than indeed this is legitimate market. Regarding the overall market for the monster TVs I think it is getting exponentially smaller vs. size increasing. This is due to the dominance factor:
huge TV tends to dominate sitting room and people do not like it, especially wifis. Then there is question of content, BR is fine but regular TV on a monster screen is not best due to artefacts and type of content (like mosnter size talking heads).

I have to disagree with your last point in one respect: "Large" talking heads are a problem?

Have you ever been to a movie theater? I don't hear people complaining about the size of the talking heads when they watch a movie on those 20-40-60-80-100+ foot screens, so why do you think it is such a problem for people at home?
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post #1234 of 1421 Old 10-05-2011, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post

They only seem big when you first get it. After a few weeks they seem smaller again after you've adjusted to the size increase.

I would love to get the 80" set, but after paying close to $4k for a 61", 1080P DLP set in 2005, I swore I would never pay anywhere near that much for a TV again.

My room is well suited for an 80" set, but I just bought one of the 70" Sharp sets so that's where I will be for the next few years. If a matrix 80" comes out though, who knows....

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post #1235 of 1421 Old 10-05-2011, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by talkingparrots View Post

This is why I'm sitting out of the race at the moment. I know if I bought a set like this, I would sit on it for 5-7 years. Next year will show improved black levels, possibly 3D, and a calvacade of new inputs (Thunderbolt?). I want to buy in now, but the technology hasn't matured yet. Besides the technology exists, CE companies want to milk us for every cent we have.

I also wouldn't mind buying a 92 inch model as well. However, as soon as the 92 inch comes into production, the race to the first 100 inch TV will begin. I am loving this new era of bigger is better.

Squawkk!

The great news with this is that finally we are getting to the saturation point. My room probably could support 90", being able to have that size and not needing a dedicated light controlled room is the holy grail for me.

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post #1236 of 1421 Old 10-06-2011, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by westa6969 View Post

There won't be a 735 in 2012 and this thing is just available for pre-order at ABT and available within a few weeks and you'll most likely wait a year for the next gen - my bet would be as the 80" is drawn from a budget line it may bring in it's 3D via passive system next Summer/Fall.

I believe Sharp is partnered with others on Passive system in development. They are partnered with CheMei and LG and others for Smart TV and wouldn't be surprised to see them seek passive 3d or glasses free if that's possible for the budget panels. 3D on an 80" panel could truly be immersive kick butt experience.

good info, thanks.
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post #1237 of 1421 Old 10-06-2011, 06:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonymoody View Post

Thanks for the thoughts rogo.

I too need to get working on getting that Elite... There's a 70" for $6k delivered that has my name on it. Somewhere. I'm sure of it

let me know when you find that price. In a quick look the best I noticed was 7.5k no tax and shipped. Def dont want to pay tax on an item this cost so local like Best Buy is probably out of the question unless they match and beat other prices to the point its an even match with tax. At most they just match price before tax so theirs is still way higher.

I'd maybe even settle for 7k total shipped but 6k and below is just a matter of time especially with not many regular ppl (ie. not us videophiles) paying this much for a set that doesn't look any different to them then the 70" 735 per se.

And its not much to look at aesthetically so many will go for the fancier looking Samsung or Sony etc. for less. Elite 70 will be 6k and lower in no time.
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post #1238 of 1421 Old 10-07-2011, 01:08 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Nonetheless I have always been saying in the 4k thread that for 4K resolution to be successful, huge TV has to be deemed potentially pretty mainstream. But unlikely vice versa. Look at PC monitors and you can track how the resolution will progressively evolve.

4K TV is not needed from PQ standpoint (much better would be to have 2K with less compression, especially in broadcast). But it will be pushed on consumer folks by marketing ploys like the megapixel war in digital cameras. 4K computer monitors make big sense but there is little activity there though Eizo is soon bringing them for high-end professional apps.

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post #1239 of 1421 Old 10-07-2011, 01:41 AM
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At close distance 4k for monitors make sense as retina display has demonstrated. I guess that's why you say it makes "big sense". We are getting tweener resolutions like 1440p/1600p in monitors nowadays, so it's not exactly "little activity". I do not expect a discrete jump to 4k from 1080p.

But the eye's perception of resolution can interchage distance with size. So 4k makes sense for huge size TV as well where your viewing distance is further. At 4k the PPI for a 70" is about 65 vs 326 for retina display.
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post #1240 of 1421 Old 10-07-2011, 04:38 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

At close distance 4k for monitors make sense as retina display has demonstrated. I guess that's why you say it makes "big sense". We are getting tweener resolutions like 1440p/1600p in monitors nowadays, so it's not exactly "little activity". I do not expect a discrete jump to 4k from 1080p.

As 'activity' I meant specifically 4K. Surely there are monitors available going beyond 2K but nothing 4K yet. 4K monitors make big sense since viewing distance is small and content is mostly static, same case as retina display.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

But the eye's perception of resolution can interchage distance with size. So 4k makes sense for huge size TV as well where your viewing distance is further. At 4k the PPI for a 70" is about 65 vs 326 for retina display.

True, it is depending on distance and visual acuity. Assuming acuity of 44 pixels per degree the benefits of 4K over 2K may be noticed at the viewing distance below 2.3xPH (Picture Height). With 60 pixels per degree the viewing distance below which 4K is superior is 3.16xPH. This assumes perfect content meaning no prefiltering and low compression. These conditions are stringent and maybe not so practical (watching at the distance of 2-3 picture heights to soak all the 4K pixels). Note that numbers here are from an expert paper which is rather optimistically promoting 4K so probably in practice the case for 4K is still weaker.

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post #1241 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 01:05 AM
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Sharp's results show strong takeup of huge TV. I'm surprised at such high 90% utilisation rate, but regretably still at a loss. Analysts still stuck with 60" as benchmark for "huge":

"We estimate that large LCD panels generated an operating loss of around ¥10bn
in Jul-Sep (2Q). Deep losses are likely to persist at the Kameyama No.2 Factory
in 2H, but the possibility of the Sakai Factory breaking even is now visible.
Average capacity utilization at this site came to 90% in 2Q, with 60-inch panels
and above accounting for more than 60% in terms of surface area produced. In
1H, the company apparently sold about 550,000 TVs in the 60-inch range and
above, rising to around 900,000 units in terms of panels if we add in external
sales. This is an annualized rate of just over 2mn units, confirming that units in
the 60-inch range and above continue to sell briskly. A question emerged about
concerns over the difference between sell-through and sell-in, but sell-in figures
would worsen straight away unless final sales of ultra-large 60-inch TVs were
made. Sell-in figures have been running at double the previous year's level for
more than 10 months, and it is fair to see these as actual sales figures.
Clearly economic downturn would change the outlook for sales, but we believe
there is global FTV demand for 8mn units a year in the 55-inch and above
category, even now. Sharp's Sakai Factory is currently producing a mere 2mnplus
60-inch units, so it is not manufacturing units at an unnecessary pace. For
this reason, Sharp assumes its large panel business will not manage to turn
profitable. In 2H, we look for contributions from external large panel sales and
from 70-inch units sold only by Sharp. In the first half of 2000s, the US market for
rear-projection 60-inch TVs stood at nearly 2mn units, but it is unsurprising that
LCD TVs are selling, given that these are less than half the price. We believe
there is very little risk of the large panel business at the Sakai Factory seeing a
resumed downturn in earnings and weakening capacity utilization, so long as
there are no extreme changes triggered by factors such as a worsening economy.

Medium-sized/small panels generated 2Q operating profit of around ¥22bn, with a
double-digit profit margin, confirming this as a highly profitable business. There
were speculations that IGZO production was not starting up, but the company
said that the official production would begin in November, and that sales would be
accounted from December. With less than a month to go, it would be hard to
doubt the company's comments, in our view. IGZO production at the Kameyama
No. 2 Factory will make a full-scale contribution in 2H, and we therefore estimate
that profits in this business will rise sharply HoH as well." -Merrill 28 Oct
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post #1242 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 01:10 AM
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In contrast, Plasma innovation looks likely to slow further... a tale of 2 Japanese companies:

" Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Panasonic Corp. forecast an annual
net loss of 420 billion yen ($5.3 billion), citing the impact of
the strong yen and stronger competition in its overseas digital
products business.
Panasonic reversed an earlier projection for profit of 30
billion yen for the year ending March 2012, the Osaka-based
electronics maker said in a statement today.
The maker of Viera TV was affected by floods in Thailand
just months after restarting domestic plants that were crippled
by Japan’s magnitude-9 temblor on March 11. Falling prices of
TVs, sluggish demand in developed countries and a stronger yen
are adding pressure on the company even after it disclosed plans
in April to eliminate 17,000 jobs to revive profitability."
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post #1243 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 02:19 AM - Thread Starter
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Spec: contrasting Sharp vs. Panasonic is like looking if the glass is half empty or half full. Pana is in deeper losses comparing to Sharp deep losses .
TV business is bloodbath, it seems Samsung has a win with simple edge-lit TVs.

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post #1244 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 03:15 AM
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Not really. Sharp is recovering from a hole while Panny is getting into a hole. It is the rate of change that matters from a financial point of view.

But ya the LCD TV industry is doing negative gross margin in general. Sammy display division is being supported by SMD OLED profit.
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post #1245 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 04:44 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Not really. Sharp is recovering from a hole while Panny is getting into a hole. It is the rate of change that matters from a financial point of view.

Sharp says one factory is close to breakeven but second has deep losses. Not sure if they can get out of the hole.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

But ya the LCD TV industry is doing negative gross margin in general. Sammy display division is being supported by SMD OLED profit.

Samsung as a conglomerate has more options but their concentration on edge-lits seems to be winning

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post #1246 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 05:32 AM
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Specuvestor please correct me if my math and understanding of the numbers is wrong. My reading on the numbers says Sharp is forecasting a 12 bn yen operating profit from TV production this year, whereas Panny is forecasting a 420 bn net loss and Samsung didn't breakout the numbers for TVs but states they are unprofitable.
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post #1247 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 05:35 AM
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^^ I've left my office but Sharp TV should be LOSS. And they are booking a lot of "stuff" under exceptionals so the margins of the fab may not be realistic. The other 2 is right but Sammy is booking SMD into the numbers to hide the loss.

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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Sharp says one factory is close to breakeven but second has deep losses. Not sure if they can get out of the hole.

The "one" factory is the Sakai 10G which had 40% utilization before they decided to bet on 70" which I had been explaining in this thread. Close to break-even is a better than expected outcome this quarter. I was expecting max 80% utilization.

You need to follow the history before you conclude. Especially your thesis that 10G is an incredible absolute advantage and can be profitable at 70"
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post #1248 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 12:23 PM
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I'd be cautious about comparing the loss for "Panasonic" the company with the loss estimated by Merrill for the TV business at Sharp, a portion of the company. It's sort of comparing bananas to fruit salads. That said, companies losing money is never a good thing.

For those of you keeping score at home, the 70" TV business appears to be running at something around 400,000 units annually for 2011. (550,000 Sharp-branded TVs of 60" or larger in 2011's first half; it's ridiculous to argue that more than about a quarter of them are 70s given the way pricing of TVs works. I'm sure some of you will argue this; it's a great way to my ignore list.)

The paragraph parsing is tricky, but if Merrill is claiming Sakai is running at 90% (and it's really not clear they are, but I'll assume that's what it say), then the fact that 40% of Sakai's production by area is below 60" means that in terms of units, a significant majority of the TVs there are still smaller. Sharp has suggested these are all money losers for Sharp and they want to get out of that business. Apparently, not soon enough.

Looking ahead, what's going to be challenging is this: Sharp basically had no one at all to compete with (except Panasonic) in the over 60" category, priced really well, and has basically invented the 70" flat-panel segment. And they've done well selling into it. What they haven't done yet is demonstrated they can move people from buying 60s to 70s and that's really their challenge because anyone can sell 60s. And once they start 70" wholesaling panels out to LG, they are going to lose their uniqueness there as well as some shelf space.

I wouldn't want to be in this business. That said, I suppose if they keep following the path toward tablet displays on the one hand and 70" displays on the other hand, they can eke out a living.

I'm sure Samsung's garbage TV division isn't making any money either irkuck. In fact, with over 1000 SKUs, I'm sure they're giving up margin all over the place because they really don't seem to understand modern supply-chain management/logistics very well at all.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1249 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 05:27 PM
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It's more like comparing apple to apple salad I think it is pretty obvious looking at Panny momentum this year that a sizable reason for that massive swing to loss is from the TV division. Not to say that's the only reason as Sanyo integration could create exceptionals as well.

As we already discussed much earlier, 60" non quattron is money losing for Sharp. It is likely looking at their strategy that 8G will be for retina displays and 80" non quattron, while 10G will be quattron >=60". Analysts are still stuck at 60" being huge as reference, but obviously Sharp does not think so. It is a given that 60" contribution will continue to decline meaningfully. Some of you may continue to doubt the huge size adoption but Sharp is putting money where their mouth is and moving ahead aggressively on huge size. Literally betting the house (or fab)

What is interesting to me is that 8G backend process has to be EXTREMELY flexible to cater to small/medium size panels, huge size 80" panels and also custom for 3rd party purchase. I'm assuming 10G quattron panels will not be sold to 3rd party. Technically it could of course, with the yellow pixel mandated to be disabled.
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post #1250 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 06:50 PM
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I stopped by my local BB/Mag yesterday and saw the new Sharp 80-inch. It was siting right next to a 55-inch and it was HUGE by comparison. However, the in-store demo loop didn't look very good at that increased size. Based on my observations, you wouldn't want to sit closer to the 80-inch than about 12 feet, otherwise the PQ was unacceptable. I assume that a Blu-Ray player would produce a better quality image, so perhaps closer viewing is possible when using the best possible sources?
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post #1251 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 07:12 PM
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post #1252 of 1421 Old 10-31-2011, 10:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

It's more like comparing apple to apple salad I think it is pretty obvious looking at Panny momentum this year that a sizable reason for that massive swing to loss is from the TV division. Not to say that's the only reason as Sanyo integration could create exceptionals as well.

I'm sure the losses in TV hurt them. But comparing the figures of one division to the figures of an entire company is pretty meaningless.
Quote:


As we already discussed much earlier, 60" non quattron is money losing for Sharp. It is likely looking at their strategy that 8G will be for retina displays and 80" non quattron, while 10G will be quattron >=60".

Yes, absent any information to the contrary and given that we current know for certain 100% of the 60" and up panels they sell to 3rd parties are, in fact, 60", we can reasonably extrapolate the number of 70" panels.
Quote:


Analysts are still stuck at 60" being huge as reference, but obviously Sharp does not think so. It is a given that 60" contribution will continue to decline meaningfully.

The problem being they can't conjure demand and 70" is pretty much a North America only product. (Pretty much does not mean 100%, it means "pretty much.)
Quote:


Some of you may continue to doubt the huge size adoption but Sharp is putting money where their mouth is and moving ahead aggressively on huge size. Literally betting the house (or fab)

It sounds like they could move as much of the fab to 70" as the market demands. But there isn't a tremendous amount of evidence they can invent demand. What they've done with aggressive pricing is goosed demand to the extent it can be goosed. And I'm sure that there'll be more demand over time. Given that no one else has a fab capable of producing that size in volume, the market is still limited by production in the medium term. But in the short term, the limiter is -- in fact -- demand.
Quote:


What is interesting to me is that 8G backend process has to be EXTREMELY flexible to cater to small/medium size panels, huge size 80" panels and also custom for 3rd party purchase. I'm assuming 10G quattron panels will not be sold to 3rd party. Technically it could of course, with the yellow pixel mandated to be disabled.

They can't make Quattron panels and then sell them crippled. The pixel fill will be screwy. Either they have to make non-Quattron panels or they have to sell Quattron panels. Selling panels with 1/4 of the screen shut off is not the same as selling chips with a disabled core.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1253 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 12:35 AM
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Fact is they have 90% utilization for quattron panels which I for one was not expecting. Whether this goes to inventory or demand is for us to decipher.

I also don't think they will sell their proprietary quattron to 3rd party and I do know what you are trying to say technically but anecdotal evidence does seem to imply people are not overly concerned or able to perceive the yellow pixel being switched off, especially for ISF calibration.

As to separating the Apple from the Apple salad:

"Panasonic’s 2QFY3/12 OP and NP came in below our and consensus
expectations. More importantly, the company revised up its FY3/12
restructuring charge forecast from ¥110bn to ¥514bn largely on charges
of ¥265bn in displays and ¥59bn in semiconductors. This restructuring is
faster and deeper than we had imagined and the company has released a
detailed plan.
-Snip-
Panasonic plans to cut its LCD and PDP panel factories to one each,
increase production of non-TV use products, and focus on high-end and
large-size PDP panels and will purchase more LCD panels overseas.
Panasonic will shut Amagasaki P5 this year and cancel the relocation of
Amagasaki P3 to Shanghai and dispose of the facility resulting in a fall in
42-inch equivalent PDP capacity from 13.8m to 7.2m units per year and
will shut its Mobara LCD panel faculty and will consolidate all TV set
production in Japan into its Utsunomiya factory." -CLSA 1 Nov
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post #1254 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 03:20 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

You need to follow the history before you conclude. Especially your thesis that 10G is an incredible absolute advantage and can be profitable at 70"

You are a wiseman post factum hehe. Fact is that Sharp turned the industry logic on its head which caught by surprise not only me but all top caliber guys like Samsung, LG and Panasonic. Pana especially got hurt painfully as their whole future in large plasmas is busted. What Sharp did to get cost of huge panels so low is still unclear BTW.

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post #1255 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 05:41 AM
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I have every reason to believe you are a young man. It is amazing you have such short memory. And this is only the "latest" one:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...1#post20929841

We've been talking about this and I've been explaining about this for the longest time. How could you even say it's post factum??? It is the UTILISATION which translate to volume for this size. Why is it "unclear"?? Question is of course whether the ramp up of utilisation to 90% goes to customers or go to inventory, which is what rogo's skeptism is.

What is clear is that even at 90% utilisation and post massive exceptionals 10G is still unprofitable vs what you believe is highly profitable because they have a magical 10G. I have always said the 732 is a steal because they are selling for a song.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...3#post20773233
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post #1256 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 01:51 PM
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Fact is they have 90% utilization for quattron panels which I for one was not expecting. Whether this goes to inventory or demand is for us to decipher.

I'll leave that to you.
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I also don't think they will sell their proprietary quattron to 3rd party and I do know what you are trying to say technically but anecdotal evidence does seem to imply people are not overly concerned or able to perceive the yellow pixel being switched off, especially for ISF calibration.

If they pattern the panel as Quattron but leave the electronics out, the panel is automatically 1/4 dimmer and 1/4 "empty". It looks bad. They won't do this. It's dumb. So either they will pattern some with only three colors or they not sell 70s or they will sell 70" Quattron. One of those three.

And, yes, Panasonic sounds unhappy. I hope they can turn that around.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1257 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 10:49 PM
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I don't cover japanese stocks but here's more info on panny's strategy:
http://panasonic.net/ir/presentation...031_note_e.pdf

What has started to sink in for me is their plan to shut down the massive & latest P5 described here:
http://www.avforums.com/forums/14224794-post5.html

SDI and Sharp should be major beneficiary from their competitor's woes. If we recall what I said, Sharp would be like Panasonic now if they didn't make a bet on huge size.
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post #1258 of 1421 Old 11-01-2011, 11:42 PM
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I don't cover japanese stocks but here's more info on panny's strategy:
http://panasonic.net/ir/presentation...031_note_e.pdf

What has started to sink in for me is their plan to shut down the massive & latest P5 described here:
http://www.avforums.com/forums/14224794-post5.html

SDI and Sharp should be major beneficiary from their competitor's woes. If we recall what I said, Sharp would be like Panasonic now if they didn't make a bet on huge size.

Thing is, Panasonic could make 75s at will. But they don't have 110w 75" displays that weigh only 100 lbs. This is a clear example of where being "stuck" with plasma has limited Panasonic's ability to fully pivot. I agree; shutting down that much capacity is stunning.

I imagine Panasonic will hunker down and survive this, but it's hard to see how they come out strong on the other end. Basically, all the Japanese CE giants of the 70s and 80s are either shrinking, tiny or already gone. It seems inevitable that a Chinese company or two will emerge in the next decade to join the Koreans because neither LG nor Samsung seems especially strong either. Haier anyone?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1259 of 1421 Old 11-02-2011, 05:11 AM
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FWIW, Sharp still doesn't have any 70" models for sale in Australia, let alone the Elite range.
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post #1260 of 1421 Old 11-02-2011, 06:04 AM
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FWIW, Sharp still doesn't have any 70" models for sale in Australia, let alone the Elite range.

Same as the UK which is rather frustrating.
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