Originally Posted by specuvestor
Sharp is reducing 60" production and likely produce minimal for year 2013. That's the context of Sharp's forecast of 60"+
Like I said before, if 70"+ sells more than 2m ie 1% of market (which is not impossible in 2013)
That seems completely impossible actually. You are talking about a 10x increase over 2011 if that happens. I'm not persuaded that's possible on many, many levels.
it shows there is a demand for large size but it will be capped below 5% of market simply due to capacity (not demand, so market share is not relevant whether there is a "market" or not. Sharp has however put their $ where their mouth is), though not forgetting that Sharp demonstrated it's possible to make 80" using 8G fab.
Yes, there is demand. Yes, Sharp has invested. Yes, Sharp can make 80" with an 8G fab, but keep mind, we are talking about well under 50K units per years right now.
Which also means demand for huge panel will have an impact on capacity for other panel size and pricing. Huge size demand and Sharp's mix adjustment may actually save the industry next 2 years. In this context is why I said the 732 will likely be the cheapest 70" in next 24 months. The industry is dynamic, so if there is sustainably good margins on huge size, we will see others put $ where their mouth is and invest 10G capex in China for 2014/5 ramp.
Problem is of course the economy is not helping.
You will need new entrants to make those investments. I don't see any scenario where the incumbents invest in 10G LCD in China or anywhere, even 3 years out. Samsung is definitely either going to make the move to OLED or basically keep stamping out garbage LCD from their existing fabs and be content to make whatever margins that allows. Why invest $6 billion on a new fab when the old one lets you rule the world?
The competition is flat out in shambles.
While I don't doubt that the Chinese themselves could start making LCD TV panels, I'm not sure that (a) it radically changes the calculus or (b) they would decide to drive the market toward bigger sizes that are still more or less limited to the North American market and very select pockets elsewhere.
We speculated over and over on this topic and with the OLED migration moving to smaller sizes
it seems more certain than ever than getting the 70" category to even the 10% threshold is going to be a fairly tall order by decades end. That would be two orders of magnitude from here or a 100-fold increase in its market share. Currently, industry capacity will stop it halfway. Let's say we agree that eventually new capacity will come online that might change that... If it does so in 2015-2016, the plausibility of a 10% share for the 70" category at least exists. As for the certainty of it? Not so much.
If I had to bet right now, I'd guess that in 2020, 70"+ sets would represent single-digit percent of the market, albeit high single digits. The more successful OLED is, the lower the percentage will be. It will have the perverse effect of driving up ASPs and driving down average screen sizes at the same time.