AVS Forum Addicted Member
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
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"We expect that, with the full-fledged shipment of IGZO starting from February, there will be no utilisation loss at Kameyama and that ASP will at least increase by 4-5 times, which will help improve fab profitability."
It's funny that's under TV business when the only possible explanation of that is that the production is, in fact, headed for Apple. I mean, I guess they call LCD the "TV business". ASP increasing 4-5x is probably "per substrate" from garbage 40" displays to a lot of 10" super-high-res screens.
"We are expecting that inventory of 60” and 70” will be almost zero, assuming there is only demand for internal sales and no significant recovery in external sales till then""
This reads like they can't give away 60" panels. I'm not surprised given the yen and the fact that everyone else also has excess capacity, but that's how I read that.
"But I thought IGZO is not for large panels.."
Sounds like they have the 10G going IGZO 6 quarters from now (and obviously, perhaps a bit later.. I mean that's far out). Maybe they master making IGZO backplanes on the 8G and by the middle of next year, whatever glitches made them sub-optimal for going all the way to the 10G are ironed out. The phased approach suggests they are positive it's cheaper, positive it's the future, but uncertain when the investment makes sense. I mean, even Kameyama isn't forecast by them to be full IGZO for 6 quarters.
"When we started business in the US selling only 60”TVs, they didn’t sell very well. But when we added 70” in the product line, 60” started selling very well, and likewise after we added 80” to the production line, both 60” and 70” started selling well. This may not be really answering your question but this is our strategy in large panel TVs and reasons for not focusing on 55"
The claim here is that people wouldn't buy the 60" until the 70" made it look reasonable in size (that's more or less the claim). And that the 70" seems reasonable next to an 80". Let's say we accept this... The fact remains that if they grew 70" sales to even 500K units this year, that would be (a) exceptional growth and (b) still only 1 month of the plant at utilization. They can't solve their problems making 70" TVs which wholesale for an average of $2500 (across all models). There simply aren't enough sales to do that; it's probably only about $500-750MM in gross margin total.
And worse than that, they can't justify running the plant for such a small production. Basically, they have to find ways to sell an awful lot more 60" TVs. And 70s and 80s.
They talked about Sakai being cut to 50% is the implications of what you wrote. My math indicates it's never been above that.
There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...