Official 70"+ LCD thread - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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post #181 of 1421 Old 03-17-2011, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Haha it should have been Sharp instead that launched the blu ray with Darth Vader

But seriously I am very curious what is their margins on the $3000 70". Doesn't sound right.

I didn't read the entire thread, however, if the 70 inch is going to be a Quattron panel, that could explain a low price.

Professional reviews are not thrilled with Quattron. You get better yellow, but there are down sides as well.
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post #182 of 1421 Old 03-17-2011, 02:33 PM
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Hard to believe it is cheaper to produce quad pixel panel vs. regular RGB panel
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post #183 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 12:17 AM
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since u guys seem interested the reason I say this is because based on LGD 4Q results, their ASP/m2 is about US$700. I use LGD as proxy because they are the only one making both panels and sets AND have different listed entities ie transfer pricing is more transparent.

As a rule of thumb, usually panel is about 1/3 of TV selling pricing. 70" is roughly about 2 square meter I guesstimate. $1400/$3000 is almost 50%.
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post #184 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 12:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

since u guys seem interested the reason I say this is because based on LGD 4Q results, their ASP/m2 is about US$700. I use LGD as proxy because they are the only one making both panels and sets AND have different listed entities ie transfer pricing is more transparent.

As a rule of thumb, usually panel is about 1/3 of TV selling pricing. 70" is roughly about 2 square meter I guesstimate (1.78 to be precise based on 16:9 ratio but plus/minus from assuming higher Sharp cost). $1400/$3000 is almost 50%.

Nice analysis (as always).

The 72LZ9700 72" model (which might show up on our shores if they avoid the pirates) sports the LG Display - LC720DUC-SCM1 panel. Any idea what the cost/markup on this set could be?

-nony
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post #185 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 01:05 AM
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Our skill set is more on ability to generalize using relevant/correct datapoints. As you probably are aware we are short on specifics

I would guess LGD pricing will still be around $700/m2 for these large panels as they were making a loss in 4Q and they expect pricing to recover ie panel prices are not going south much more. Sharp should also have higher cost structure as they are at around 65% utilization ie $700/m2 is an optimistic estimate for Sharp despite 10G fab, while LG is >90% because of Apple.

In short I am unsure if Sharp actually make $ on $3000 70" but rather using it as beachhead or utilisation tool. LG probably can but not in high volume as their capacity is tight. I think LG would be happy if they make 10% nett on the 72LZ. Frankly competition in US is just as bad as China. By the time these huge TVs come to Asia it would be at least 50" higher in price (excluding the native countries) and the irony is the supply chain is all in Asia (excluding assembly)
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post #186 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 03:41 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

I would guess LGD pricing will still be around $700/m2 for these large panels as they were making a loss in 4Q and they expect pricing to recover ie panel prices are not going south much more. Sharp should also have higher cost structure as they are at around 65% utilization ie $700/m2 is an optimistic estimate for Sharp despite 10G fab, while LG is >90% because of Apple.

Not being expert but looks to me the decisive factor is how many panels they stamp of single sheet of glass - economies of scale depend on this. If, having 10G fab, Sharp is able to stamp as commonly done, two columns of 70 inchers, with 4-6 in on column , it means costs going down really fast. In comparison, LG might be able to stamp just two 72 inchers on one glass with costs much higher. These would the reason why Sharp is able to offer 70" cheaply.

Anyway, these considerations pale when seeing problems manufacturers now face in Japan. Main facilities for LCD manuf should be intact but do they get electricity they need and materials from the supply chain. Even workers transportation might be a problem.
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post #187 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 03:55 AM
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Agree in principle but does US see 60" Sharp TV cheaper than competitors? Anecdotally it might not be true but maybe also a function of its utilisation rate

Yes I think the biggest issue people forget is that the nuclear plant provides about 1/3 of Japan's power. It will affect supply of everything structurally, and Japan is big on the upstreams from raw petrochem materials to machineries.
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post #188 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 04:53 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Agree in principle but does US see 60" Sharp TV cheaper than competitors? Anecdotally it might not be true but maybe also a function of its utilisation rate.

Answer might be that for 60" many manufs have multiple stamping capacity per single sheet. While for the 70" only Sharp has it for now. Utilisation rate may be additional factor in forcing Sharp to reduce the price. They can not compete with others in smaller size segments.

These things could be checked by finding the size of glass used in Sharp 10G plant vs. other plants.
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post #189 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 05:07 AM
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I doubt Sharp's comeback plan is oriented around selling profitless $3000 TVs. Ergo, I believe they are making a decent profit even at $3000.

That said, it's probably not the same margins as Samsung's and LG's more profitable sets.

Aside: The Samsung "oops we of course meant we have 60 and 65 inch TVs" thing was very very weird. I am still skeptical we'll see much from them at 65, but certain we won't see anything from them at 70+ this year.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #190 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 05:08 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Agree in principle but does US see 60" Sharp TV cheaper than competitors? Anecdotally it might not be true but maybe also a function of its utilisation rate.

Answer might be that for 60" many manufs have multiple stamping capacity per single sheet. While for the 70" only Sharp has it for now. Utilisation rate may be additional factor in forcing Sharp to reduce the price. They can not compete with others in smaller size segments.

These things could be checked by finding the size of glass used in Sharp 10G plant vs. other plants.
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post #191 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 05:30 AM
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based on the Morgan Stanley report that I always refer to
LGD's 8.5G is 2200X2500mm
Sharp's 8G is 2160X2400mm
Sharp's 10G is 3000X3320 for Sakai2 and 2880X3130 for Sakai1

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I doubt Sharp's comeback plan is oriented around selling profitless $3000 TVs. Ergo, I believe they are making a decent profit even at $3000.

That said, it's probably not the same margins as Samsung's and LG's more profitable sets.

To digress a bit, profit is a very fuzzy thing in accounting If we look at cash profit or EBITDA margin then I think they should be excess 10% for Sharp. In 4Q LGD had operating margin of -6% and EBITDA margin of 6.1% with a 12% depreciation cost. Depreciation cost (which is fixed) spread over 65 units or over 95 units will be very different ie utilisation. So it depends how you look at it from a strategic and shareholder point of view

Sharp could essentially sell at lower EBITDA margins just to improve negative operating margins (yup magical isn't it) ie the traditional high volume lower margin model, to spread out the depreciation cost. Hence my reference as a beachhead and it could well be a good comeback plan. My gripe is that they could priced higher if there is no competition ie they misjudged the competition or they think demand for huge size will only come at these prices.
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post #192 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 09:32 AM
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To digress a bit, profit is a very fuzzy thing in accounting If we look at cash profit or EBITDA margin then I think they should be excess 10% for Sharp. In 4Q LGD had operating margin of -6% and EBITDA margin of 6.1% with a 12% depreciation cost. Depreciation cost (which is fixed) spread over 65 units or over 95 units will be very different ie utilisation. So it depends how you look at it from a strategic and shareholder point of view

This is why I went to art school... I have no idea what you said.

If there ends up being no competition do you think that Sharp will increase the MSRP. Also I saw in the description that it has an XGen panel is this a good thing? Will pixel density be an issue? Will the screen look blocky in comparison to a 58" 1080p?
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post #193 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 11:34 AM
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accounting is just a pale shadow of reality. Scary part is a lot of people's reality is shaped by numbers, including this forum. What intrigues me more is the strategy.

IMHO 1080p should still look ok on a 70" but would probably leave the door open for 4k resolution when it gets mainstream. Then u would hear AVS argue whether 1080 better or 2160 better at what distance
MSRP will only go up when they add "features". Think they have set $3k as the base price for the next 2 years I guess.
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post #194 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 11:50 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

based on the Morgan Stanley report that I always refer to
LGD's 8.5G is 2200X2500mm
Sharp's 8G is 2160X2400mm
Sharp's 10G is 3000X3320 for Sakai2 and 2880X3130 for Sakai1

That is fully confirming my prediction. On Sharp glass two 69.5" panels will fit even in the smaller 3000mm width (albeit tightly). Sharp can stamp such 6-8 panels on one sheet, other guys not.
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post #195 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 11:56 AM
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Just wondering if and when Sharp may announce their boutique Pioneer in a 70" Panel and if Pio is providing anything other than branding and audio. Would be interesting if Pio and Sharp are adding anything to these panels when they arrive in the future (I'm guessing late Summer/Fall).

Samsung 65F8000, 60D8000, 40HU6350, Panasonic 50E60 LCD's
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post #196 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 01:44 PM
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The Sears website no longer lists price information or expected delivery dates for the 732.
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post #197 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsinger
The Sears website no longer lists price information or expected delivery dates for the 732.
Same with BB.
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post #198 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 03:20 PM
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The BB page went away yesterday. The Sears page was showing price, but no shipping info up until a little while ago. I kept getting an Error on page message on my PC. Now it has no pricing info either, as was stated above.
I'm thinking this can't be a good sign.
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post #199 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 03:31 PM
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My guess is that Sharp have probably stopped producing the panels for now, and nobody knows when it will be resumed....
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post #200 of 1421 Old 03-18-2011, 08:24 PM
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I worry and not just because of TV
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Yes I think the biggest issue people forget is that the nuclear plant provides about 1/3 of Japan's power. It will affect supply of everything structurally, and Japan is big on the upstreams from raw petrochem materials to machineries.

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post #201 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 06:18 AM
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Well, the Sears site has changed yet again. Now it says " Item available in store only.
Contact local Store for Availability "
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post #202 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 08:07 AM
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Guess what I am doing today.
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post #203 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 08:50 AM
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Guess what I am doing today.

Most likley the same thing I'm doing. Heading down to Sears !!
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post #204 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 12:45 PM
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Sharp 10G only have 1 plant now At 2,880x3,130mm, a 10G substrate offers about 70% more surface area than an 8G sheet, according to Corning. While one 8G substrate can produce the 18 32-inch panels, a 10G sheet can make 28 32-inch panels, or 15 42-inch panels.............

some lowend 55" LCD TV are sell for $999 now, so at $3000 70" I think Sharp is still making money




Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

based on the Morgan Stanley report that I always refer to
LGD's 8.5G is 2200X2500mm
Sharp's 8G is 2160X2400mm
Sharp's 10G is 3000X3320 for Sakai2 and 2880X3130 for Sakai1


To digress a bit, profit is a very fuzzy thing in accounting If we look at cash profit or EBITDA margin then I think they should be excess 10% for Sharp. In 4Q LGD had operating margin of -6% and EBITDA margin of 6.1% with a 12% depreciation cost. Depreciation cost (which is fixed) spread over 65 units or over 95 units will be very different ie utilisation. So it depends how you look at it from a strategic and shareholder point of view

Sharp could essentially sell at lower EBITDA margins just to improve negative operating margins (yup magical isn't it) ie the traditional high volume lower margin model, to spread out the depreciation cost. Hence my reference as a beachhead and it could well be a good comeback plan. My gripe is that they could priced higher if there is no competition ie they misjudged the competition or they think demand for huge size will only come at these prices.

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post #205 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 03:46 PM
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Any luck picking it up locally?
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post #206 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 04:11 PM
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Has not shown up at the stores or warehouse in Texas.
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post #207 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 04:52 PM
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Something tells me it will be awhile before it shows up in store or online
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post #208 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
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Any luck picking it up locally?

My local store has been told that they won't be getting any in at all. So, I just said to Hell with it and ordered one. They tell me it will be here on the 1st of April. We shall see.
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post #209 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 06:54 PM
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How did you order it? At the store?
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post #210 of 1421 Old 03-19-2011, 08:06 PM
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How did you order it? At the store?

Yes, at the store. It will be a ship to store deal, to avoid shipping the charge.
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