Originally Posted by irkuck
5K for 75"? High-end 65 inchers approach this level. On the other hand anybody asking 5-digit for 70"+ will not sell due to the competitors sets in the 4-digit. There is huge psychological barrier between the 4- and 5- digit price range. So the 70"+ sets are destined to 4-digit but Samsung
may occupy the top.
Also, those who claim Samsung 75" is vaporware are in error. That would be the case if Samsung was the only potential manufacturer in the 70"+ range. But with plenty of competitors kicking in the back Samsung has to be present in this market this year, they have Number 1 Ego. Different question is the production numbers and availability but at least they will have to announce sales and the set will show up in shops somewhere sometimes.
Again, we need to be clear. Notwithstanding the Vizio 71-inch cinema model (which I assume uses a panel from Chi Mei or some other second-tier mfr. and I personally doubt will be produced), we know exactly who is considering what this year in LCD.
1) Samsung, a 75-inch. They have no track record building 65s. They showed off a 75-inch prototype which honestly didn't resemble a finished product. Maybe it ships, maybe it doesn't. But let's stop pretending it will definitely ship because, again, the track record of Samsung dates back a decade. They rarely ship the largest TV they show, often not for several years. They didn't manage to get a single 65-inch to the show, despite claiming it will be available in several series. Skepticism is warranted. Never mind the fact that the pricing for their 65-inch 8000 last year was astronomical and not remotely competitive with the only commercially volume shipped 65 (the Panasonic plasma) or the only 65-inch LCD to ever ship in volume (the discontinued Sharp 65 that left the market at about $3500 retail.
Will they ship 1,000 or so 75s in the US this year? Maybe. And if they do, they will cost >$10,000. You can more or less bank on that.
2) LG, a 72-inch. It's something like $10,000 in Korea. It'll be something like that here. It was 3x the thickness of their 55 inch and had less contrast and brightness at CES. It felt very very unfinished to me and was very unimpressive. LG can build great LCDs; the 72-inch -- a flagship model -- doesn't yet appear to be one. I'd guess they might deliver 5,000 or so to the US this year. And if they deliver none it wouldn't be stunning.
3) Sharp, a 70-inch. It's going to be as low as $3,300 for the low end model and almost certainly no higher than $5,500. I expect it to ship in volume by mid-year.
No other giant LCD is going to mystically appear in 2011. Certainly not any from a major mfr.
I don't believe Samsung will even lead the market in the 65+ category in the U.S. shipments-wise. I think they will be surpassed by Sharp and probably Sony as well. And it's likely Panasonic will obliterate the totals of either. And really, I don't care. But you can often tell much about the future from the past. And the past tells us a lot about the fact that making very big LCDs is surprisingly hard. It hasn't been done much. Stuff that can't even be shown at CES is rarely much for sale in the coming year. The largest size prototypes people show off for bragging rights are rarely even products and don't generally show up on the market.
If Samsung were an unstoppable juggernaut, why have they yet to ship a 65 in quantity 3 years after Sharp delivered one to the market? Why was their booth devoid of a 65 when Sony, Sharp, LG and Vizio all had them?
I don't even believe they were pretending to be committed to shipping the 75-inch. I believe they were committed to having something bigger on the show floor than LG.