#1 it seems like we are pretty much in agreement on the $500 difference in cost from the P to the R - it's all from the custom LCD panel and I don't see any other difference between the P and the R that translates into manufacturing cost (same processor, same number of LEDs, etc...)
Originally Posted by Speakerphile I'm sorry, my comment maybe wasn't that clear. I was saying that the raw panel, by itself, would probably amount to a $500 difference.
So am I - the custom panel is the only difference in the manufacturing cost of the P Series and the R Series. If you think that it will cost Vizio more than $500 more to manufacture a 65" Reference Series than it costs them to manufacture a 65" P Series, please explain. Otherwise this is one point on which we apparently agree :-)
#4 You say $800 for the feature set is 'just too small' but you are forgetting about elastic pricing. If they are only able to sell a very limited number of 65" Reference Series panels this year (for example, the manufacturing capacity will be severely limited by the availability of the custom panel), you are right, $3000 is too low of a price and they will price significantly higher to drive down demand. But if they have the manufacturing capacity established to deliver these 65" Reference Series panels in volume, they will want to increase the number they sell by pricing as aggressively as they can.
Originally Posted by Speakerphile While selling more volume can justify lowering your price, it needs to deliver net gains in revenue & margin despite the lower price. Otherwise you are just giving money away.
Example: If you can sell 20,000 at $5,000, you'd have to sell over 60,000 at $3,000 to make more profit, assuming a $2000 cost.
$3000 for this TV, again assuming the specs are final, would be giving it away. While that would be great for AVS members, it's just poor business.
In general this is correct, though as I just posted in my response to Rogo, the exception is when you are getting other tangible benefits from sacrificing some profit and margin such as improving brand perception... And in any case, if Vizio prices the 65" R at $5000, we both know they will sell far, far less than 20,000 of them and if they price it at $3000, they may well sell 60,000 (or more)...
So I stand by my prediction:
65" R Series will have an MSRP of $2999 if they are confident of their manufacturing and want to sell a bucket-load of them into the high-end market this year
65" R Series will have an MSRP of $4000 or more if it was for bragging rights and potentially winning the 2014 VE shootout only but they can't really deliver any significant number of these sets this year
65" R Series will have an MSRP of $3300 if they want to maintain a rational pricing structure, have some real manufacturing capacity established for the custom panel, but don't want to inflame demand for their new reference series line.
Originally Posted by Speakerphile I would probably add about $1500 to all of the above.
So by that I take it to mean you are predicting R Series pricing between $4500-$5500 (65% - 80% of Sony/Samsungs typical flagship model pricing of $7000 for 65"). Priced, there, I stand by my view that the 65" set is non-manufacturable and Vizio doesn't really want to sell any of them this year. Who in his right mind would pay $5500 for a Vizio when a Sony/Samsung Flagship costs $7000???
Anyway, a few months from now (hopefully), one of us will be proven right and one of us will be proven wrong - guess we'll just have to wait to see how the story unfolds...