CES 2014 - Page 13 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #361 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:26 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
If I were to choose between a KIA or an Audi, I'd choose the Audi.

Just like I'd choose Sony over Vizio any other day smile.gif I like the brand recognition. I know I know... That disregards pricing.

that's just me personally, don't hate!
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #362 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:29 PM
 
Cyrano's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Northwest Boonies
Posts: 5,738
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do-It-Yourself View Post

If I were to choose between a KIA or an Audi, I'd choose the Audi.

Just like I'd choose Sony over Vizio any other day smile.gif I like the brand recognition. I know I know... That disregards pricing.

that's just me personally, don't hate!

Wouldn't most of us do the same if we could?
Cyrano is offline  
post #363 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:31 PM
Member
 
JaguarCRO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
Posts: 70
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
For me, the removal of 3D means that Vizio is not even in the running. Hopefully they will force the competitors TV prices down. (I am hoping for a sub $5000 price on the XBR-65X950 :-)
JaguarCRO is offline  
post #364 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:34 PM - Thread Starter
Advanced Member
 
bluewhale1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 754
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 59 Post(s)
Liked: 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post

For me, the removal of 3D means that Vizio is not even in the running. Hopefully they will force the competitors TV prices down. (I am hoping for a sub $5000 price on the XBR-65X950 :-)

I hope so. I would hate to have it go the other way around. Yes their tv is 4k but ours does 3d as well thats why it cost soo much more.
bluewhale1 is offline  
post #365 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:36 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,211
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 742
#1 it seems like we are pretty much in agreement on the $500 difference in cost from the P to the R - it's all from the custom LCD panel and I don't see any other difference between the P and the R that translates into manufacturing cost (same processor, same number of LEDs, etc...)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

I'm sorry, my comment maybe wasn't that clear. I was saying that the raw panel, by itself, would probably amount to a $500 difference.

So am I - the custom panel is the only difference in the manufacturing cost of the P Series and the R Series. If you think that it will cost Vizio more than $500 more to manufacture a 65" Reference Series than it costs them to manufacture a 65" P Series, please explain. Otherwise this is one point on which we apparently agree :-)

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

#4 You say $800 for the feature set is 'just too small' but you are forgetting about elastic pricing. If they are only able to sell a very limited number of 65" Reference Series panels this year (for example, the manufacturing capacity will be severely limited by the availability of the custom panel), you are right, $3000 is too low of a price and they will price significantly higher to drive down demand. But if they have the manufacturing capacity established to deliver these 65" Reference Series panels in volume, they will want to increase the number they sell by pricing as aggressively as they can.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

While selling more volume can justify lowering your price, it needs to deliver net gains in revenue & margin despite the lower price. Otherwise you are just giving money away.

Example: If you can sell 20,000 at $5,000, you'd have to sell over 60,000 at $3,000 to make more profit, assuming a $2000 cost.

$3000 for this TV, again assuming the specs are final, would be giving it away. While that would be great for AVS members, it's just poor business.

In general this is correct, though as I just posted in my response to Rogo, the exception is when you are getting other tangible benefits from sacrificing some profit and margin such as improving brand perception... And in any case, if Vizio prices the 65" R at $5000, we both know they will sell far, far less than 20,000 of them and if they price it at $3000, they may well sell 60,000 (or more)...

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

So I stand by my prediction:

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $2999 if they are confident of their manufacturing and want to sell a bucket-load of them into the high-end market this year

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $4000 or more if it was for bragging rights and potentially winning the 2014 VE shootout only but they can't really deliver any significant number of these sets this year

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $3300 if they want to maintain a rational pricing structure, have some real manufacturing capacity established for the custom panel, but don't want to inflame demand for their new reference series line.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

I would probably add about $1500 to all of the above.

So by that I take it to mean you are predicting R Series pricing between $4500-$5500 (65% - 80% of Sony/Samsungs typical flagship model pricing of $7000 for 65"). Priced, there, I stand by my view that the 65" set is non-manufacturable and Vizio doesn't really want to sell any of them this year. Who in his right mind would pay $5500 for a Vizio when a Sony/Samsung Flagship costs $7000???

Anyway, a few months from now (hopefully), one of us will be proven right and one of us will be proven wrong - guess we'll just have to wait to see how the story unfolds...

-fafrd
fafrd is offline  
post #366 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:40 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post

Wouldn't most of us do the same if we could?

Yeah. But I guess saying, "I'd never purchase a KIA regardless of value" would be entirely different huh.
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #367 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:45 PM
 
Cyrano's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Northwest Boonies
Posts: 5,738
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do-It-Yourself View Post

Yeah. But I guess saying, "I'd never purchase a KIA regardless of value" would be entirely different huh.
Well, you mean name recognition and peer pressure are the only criteria.
I would take the product which gave me the best quality if price was no object.
Cyrano is offline  
post #368 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:48 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post

Well, you mean if name recognition and peer pressure was the only criteria.
I would take the product which gave me the best quality if price was no object.

We have yet to find out.
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #369 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:50 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Speakerphile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,010
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 51 Post(s)
Liked: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
#1 it seems like we are pretty much in agreement on the $500 difference in cost from the P to the R - it's all from the custom LCD panel and I don't see any other difference between the P and the R that translates into manufacturing cost (same processor, same number of LEDs, etc...)
So am I - the custom panel is the only difference in the manufacturing cost of the P Series and the R Series. If you think that it will cost Vizio more than $500 more to manufacture a 65" Reference Series than it costs them to manufacture a 65" P Series, please explain. Otherwise this is one point on which we apparently agree :-)

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

#4 You say $800 for the feature set is 'just too small' but you are forgetting about elastic pricing. If they are only able to sell a very limited number of 65" Reference Series panels this year (for example, the manufacturing capacity will be severely limited by the availability of the custom panel), you are right, $3000 is too low of a price and they will price significantly higher to drive down demand. But if they have the manufacturing capacity established to deliver these 65" Reference Series panels in volume, they will want to increase the number they sell by pricing as aggressively as they can.
In general this is correct, though as I just posted in my response to Rogo, the exception is when you are getting other tangible benefits from sacrificing some profit and margin such as improving brand perception... And in any case, if Vizio prices the 65" R at $5000, we both know they will sell far, far less than 20,000 of them and if they price it at $3000, they may well sell 60,000 (or more)...

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

So I stand by my prediction:

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $2999 if they are confident of their manufacturing and want to sell a bucket-load of them into the high-end market this year

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $4000 or more if it was for bragging rights and potentially winning the 2014 VE shootout only but they can't really deliver any significant number of these sets this year

65" R Series will have an MSRP of $3300 if they want to maintain a rational pricing structure, have some real manufacturing capacity established for the custom panel, but don't want to inflame demand for their new reference series line.
So by that I take it to mean you are predicting R Series pricing between $4500-$5500 (65% - 80% of Sony/Samsungs typical flagship model pricing of $7000 for 65"). Priced, there, I stand by my view that the 65" set is non-manufacturable and Vizio doesn't really want to sell any of them this year. Who in his right mind would pay $5500 for a Vizio when a Sony/Samsung Flagship costs $7000???

Anyway, a few months from now (hopefully), one of us will be proven right and one of us will be proven wrong - guess we'll just have to wait to see how the story unfolds...

-fafrd

They'll make far more money selling it at a higher price. Also, it fails to be a statement piece if they price it so low. Without that statement piece, they aren't in the premium market, and if they're not in the premium market they can't really challenge Samsung long term. It will have a far more positive effect on Vizio's business it they price it near the other flagship's. Regardless, I don't really think they have a choice, since I believe their cost will be significantly higher than you are speculating.

Regarding the cost to manufacture, I don't even know why we are trying to dig this deep. We have no data, just speculation. I do think it will cost more than $500 additional dollars over the P series. The specs are too high for it to be that cheap. Everything from the panel, the backlight, the processing, Dolby Vision etc, is an upgrade over the P series. You cannot upgrade everything to that extent for only $500. Even if you are god's gift to manufacturing. You are also forgetting about the additional R&D costs that they have to recoup. No small figure, I can assure you. I know you really WANT this to be priced that low, but it's just not going to happen.

Though I am an employee of Magnolia Home Theater, the views and opinions I express on this forum are those of my own and not my employer.
Speakerphile is offline  
post #370 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 01:55 PM
 
Cyrano's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Northwest Boonies
Posts: 5,738
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do-It-Yourself View Post

We have yet to find out.

smile.gif

The nice thing about this kind of conversation is that I can imagine things that I will never have to actually decide.
Vicarious living has its pleasures. But not as good as the real thing.

I hope you get your Sony, and your Audi. (Hope you've already got them.)

I've got my Hyundai and my Vizio. But I would think the Audi and Sony are better. I'm glad "better" is out there. Sony and Audi makes Hyundai (KIA) and Vizio work harder and get better.
Cyrano is offline  
post #371 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:05 PM - Thread Starter
Advanced Member
 
bluewhale1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 754
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 59 Post(s)
Liked: 20
Then when there is 5 feet of snow I have to pick all of you Audi and Kia guys up in my Subaru lol Sorry couldn't resist.
Just think in a years time we will have to go thru this all over again. I just wish everyone would start putting their prices up on the website.
bluewhale1 is offline  
post #372 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:12 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post

smile.gif

The nice thing about this kind of conversation is that I can imagine things that I will never have to actually decide.
Vicarious living has its pleasures. But not as good as the real thing.

I hope you get your Sony, and your Audi. (Hope you've already got them.)

I've got my Hyundai and my Vizio. But I would think the Audi and Sony are better. I'm glad "better" is out there. Sony and Audi makes Hyundai (KIA) and Vizio work harder and get better.

Don't get me wrong. I'd purchase a KIA in due time, but since they haven't had the history such as Toyota, my preference is in those that have proven time and time again.
Comparing televisions and automobiles is apples to oranges. There's too many deciding factors.

But then again with my bias opinion with Vizio, I'd give them a chance if they even bothered to expand their markets outside US. None of these products will ever reach Canada.
So that pretty much leaves me with less options.
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #373 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:12 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Speakerphile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,010
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 51 Post(s)
Liked: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluewhale1 View Post

Then when there is 5 feet of snow I have to pick all of you Audi and Kia guys up in my Subaru lol Sorry couldn't resist.
Just think in a years time we will have to go thru this all over again. I just wish everyone would start putting their prices up on the website.

You probably won't see prices until all of the assortment decisions are made by the retailers. Pricing tends to change during that process. Also, there are a fair number of products that probably won't hit until the June-ish timeframe.

Though I am an employee of Magnolia Home Theater, the views and opinions I express on this forum are those of my own and not my employer.
Speakerphile is offline  
post #374 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:18 PM - Thread Starter
Advanced Member
 
bluewhale1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 754
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 59 Post(s)
Liked: 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

You probably won't see prices until all of the assortment decisions are made by the retailers. Pricing tends to change during that process. Also, there are a fair number of products that probably won't hit until the June-ish timeframe.

I'm hoping the non flagship sets hit March-April.
bluewhale1 is offline  
post #375 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:27 PM
AVS Special Member
 
*UFO*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,369
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 55 Post(s)
Liked: 174
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post

For me, the removal of 3D means that Vizio is not even in the running. Hopefully they will force the competitors TV prices down. (I am hoping for a sub $5000 price on the XBR-65X950 :-)

Interestingly I am in the complete opposite boat. To me, any tv that is not full array (local dimming or not), is out of the running. That is going to be one of my first criteria along with input lag. I dont care if the tv is solid gold and selling for $10K. Edge-lit tech is a sham.
*UFO* is offline  
post #376 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:27 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
Cleveland Plasma's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 12,417
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked: 692
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post

For me, the removal of 3D means that Vizio is not even in the running. Hopefully they will force the competitors TV prices down. (I am hoping for a sub $5000 price on the XBR-65X950 :-)
I hope you are right, but I bet you will have to add at least a grand, maybe a couple.......
Cleveland Plasma is online now  
post #377 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:36 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,211
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 742
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

They'll make far more money selling it at a higher price. Also, it fails to be a statement piece if they price it so low. Without that statement piece, they aren't in the premium market, and if they're not in the premium market they can't really challenge Samsung long term. It will have a far more positive effect on Vizio's business it they price it near the other flagship's. Regardless, I don't really think they have a choice, since I believe their cost will be significantly higher than you are speculating.

For a fixed volume, you are correct - if you expand the market, you are not. I think the 'premium market' as we have come to know it is about to change. I remember when I purchased a top-of-the-line Dell Home computer for over $5000. Those days are gone now. Same thing is happening as we speak in the TV market. When OLED comes out it will re-establish a new 'premium premium market' for the early adopters that want to be on the bleeding edge, but the LED/LCD market has matured to the point that the old premium tier cannot be propped up any longer at the price points it has supported in the past. They are going to challenge Samsung long term because they are going to obliterate the premium market where Samsung has ben very strong and has been making good money. If they price near the other flagships, they will be ignored (or at best lost in the crowd). If they price at 50% of the other flagships they will shift the market (especially if they deliver a panel that is better than the other flagships).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

Regarding the cost to manufacture, I don't even know why we are trying to dig this deep. We have no data, just speculation. I do think it will cost more than $500 additional dollars over the P series. The specs are too high for it to be that cheap. Everything from the panel, the backlight, the processing, Dolby Vision etc, is an upgrade over the P series. You cannot upgrade everything to that extent for only $500. Even if you are god's gift to manufacturing. You are also forgetting about the additional R&D costs that they have to recoup. No small figure, I can assure you. I know you really WANT this to be priced that low, but it's just not going to happen.

First, we are talking about manufacturing cost, so 'the additional R&D costs they have to recoup' does not enter into it.

Second, tell me what you see in the difference in the specs between the R Series and the P Series that translates into manufacturing costs. The processor is the same. The number of LEDs is the same - controlling them as a different number of dimming zones is just software/firmware and so represents $0 cost. They have the same framerate, the same low latency. Aside from the 'custom LCD panel' (which will have a higher cost only because it will be manufactured in much lower volumes), the only thing I could find was that the R supports 10 bit color where the P does not. So maybe they have 10-bit DACs in the R and 8-bit DACs in the P and maybe they used the same 10-bit DACs in both and just don't use the lowest 2 bits in the P because it was cheaper overall that way. Think Nissan Altima and Infiniti G. Could be there is licensing cost for Dolby Vision that they only have to pay on the R, but everything we are talking about is peanuts compared to the $500 bucket we have defined.

Looks like you work for Magnolia and I am sure you know retail and how the channels work far, far better than I do. I work in technology and manufacturing and I assure you that if you could ever be exposed to the actual manufacturing cost difference between the R and the P, it would shock you (how small it is).

I am quite confident that Vizio's decision on where to price the 65" Reference Series will be driven primarily by strategic considerations and will have very little influence from economic fundamentals (because they are so minor in comparison).

-fafrd

p.s. that was a neat trick with the 'Click to Show' on the thread history - how did you do that?
fafrd is offline  
post #378 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:37 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
A
Quote:
Originally Posted by *UFO* View Post

Interestingly I am in the complete opposite boat. To me, any tv that is not full array (local dimming or not), is out of the running. That is going to be one of my first criteria along with input lag. I dont care if the tv is solid gold and selling for $10K. Edge-lit tech is a sham.

You call edge-lit a sham? What did you call CCFL?
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #379 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:37 PM
Senior Member
 
Viper187's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 271
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 19 Post(s)
Liked: 15
Why is Vizio the only brand I can find a complete list of 2014 models so far? I want to know what the hell Samsung, Sony, etc are doing at 40" and smaller this year. I spose a 32" 1080P 120hz screen isn't happening. I'm wondering if anything will have less input lag than the 40" Vizio though before I commit to one. Is ANYONE doing 21:9 screens this year? Why the hell is Seiki still apparently the only one making a 40" 4K screen a year later?
Viper187 is offline  
post #380 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:46 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Speakerphile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,010
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 51 Post(s)
Liked: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post

For me, the removal of 3D means that Vizio is not even in the running. Hopefully they will force the competitors TV prices down. (I am hoping for a sub $5000 price on the XBR-65X950 :-)

I can assure you that sub-$5000 is not going to happen.

Though I am an employee of Magnolia Home Theater, the views and opinions I express on this forum are those of my own and not my employer.
Speakerphile is offline  
post #381 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:47 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viper187 View Post

Why is Vizio the only brand I can find a complete list of 2014 models so far? I want to know what the hell Samsung, Sony, etc are doing at 40" and smaller this year. I spose a 32" 1080P 120hz screen isn't happening. I'm wondering if anything will have less input lag than the 40" Vizio though before I commit to one. Is ANYONE doing 21:9 screens this year? Why the hell is Seiki still apparently the only one making a 40" 4K screen a year later?

http://store.sony.ca/-cms-ca.ces.2014.tv

There's a 32" KDL32W700B with motion flow 240 but that's all I see
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #382 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:48 PM
AVS Special Member
 
comfynumb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Northeast PA.
Posts: 4,804
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 409
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viper187 View Post

Why is Vizio the only brand I can find a complete list of 2014 models so far? I want to know what the hell Samsung, Sony, etc are doing at 40" and smaller this year. I spose a 32" 1080P 120hz screen isn't happening. I'm wondering if anything will have less input lag than the 40" Vizio though before I commit to one. Is ANYONE doing 21:9 screens this year? Why the hell is Seiki still apparently the only one making a 40" 4K screen a year later?



Good question. I think choices is one answer, because they have a lot. They are IMO the Samsung of 10 years ago up and coming and full of **** and vinegar. I have to admit they are getting better and anyone looking for a new panel should probably take a look, although I went a different route.
comfynumb is offline  
post #383 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:51 PM
AVS Special Member
 
*UFO*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,369
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 55 Post(s)
Liked: 174
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do-It-Yourself View Post

A


You call edge-lit a sham? What did you call CCFL?

There were "edge-lit" versions of CCFL just as here were direct-lit versions. The edge-lit version of CCFL still had far less defects than LED edge-lit due to LED's having a very focused light beam.
*UFO* is offline  
post #384 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 02:59 PM
Advanced Member
 
Do-It-Yourself's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: In a house far away from you creeps (hopefully)
Posts: 900
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by *UFO* View Post

There were "edge-lit" versions of CCFL just as here were direct-lit versions. The edge-lit version of CCFL still had far less defects than LED edge-lit due to LED's having a very focused light beam.

I was not aware of any edge lit CCFL. Do you have any examples out there?
Do-It-Yourself is offline  
post #385 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 03:00 PM
AVS Special Member
 
*UFO*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,369
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 55 Post(s)
Liked: 174
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do-It-Yourself View Post

I was not aware of any edge lit CCFL. Do you have any examples out there?

Most monitors back in the day used one CCFL bulb on the top or bottom edge of the screen. Some tv's also had this. And for the record, I was very disappointed in LED edge-lit tech the day it came out. I could immediately notice the uneven backlighting compared to the CCFL models, which I even prefer over LED edge-lit sets.
*UFO* is offline  
post #386 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 03:04 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Speakerphile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,010
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 51 Post(s)
Liked: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

For a fixed volume, you are correct - if you expand the market, you are not. I think the 'premium market' as we have come to know it is about to change. I remember when I purchased a top-of-the-line Dell Home computer for over $5000. Those days are gone now. Same thing is happening as we speak in the TV market. When OLED comes out it will re-establish a new 'premium premium market' for the early adopters that want to be on the bleeding edge, but the LED/LCD market has matured to the point that the old premium tier cannot be propped up any longer at the price points it has supported in the past. They are going to challenge Samsung long term because they are going to obliterate the premium market where Samsung has ben very strong and has been making good money. If they price near the other flagships, they will be ignored (or at best lost in the crowd). If they price at 50% of the other flagships they will shift the market (especially if they deliver a panel that is better than the other flagships).
First, we are talking about manufacturing cost, so 'the additional R&D costs they have to recoup' does not enter into it.

Second, tell me what you see in the difference in the specs between the R Series and the P Series that translates into manufacturing costs. The processor is the same. The number of LEDs is the same - controlling them as a different number of dimming zones is just software/firmware and so represents $0 cost. They have the same framerate, the same low latency. Aside from the 'custom LCD panel' (which will have a higher cost only because it will be manufactured in much lower volumes), the only thing I could find was that the R supports 10 bit color where the P does not. So maybe they have 10-bit DACs in the R and 8-bit DACs in the P and maybe they used the same 10-bit DACs in both and just don't use the lowest 2 bits in the P because it was cheaper overall that way. Think Nissan Altima and Infiniti G. Could be there is licensing cost for Dolby Vision that they only have to pay on the R, but everything we are talking about is peanuts compared to the $500 bucket we have defined.

Looks like you work for Magnolia and I am sure you know retail and how the channels work far, far better than I do. I work in technology and manufacturing and I assure you that if you could ever be exposed to the actual manufacturing cost difference between the R and the P, it would shock you (how small it is).

I am quite confident that Vizio's decision on where to price the 65" Reference Series will be driven primarily by strategic considerations and will have very little influence from economic fundamentals (because they are so minor in comparison).

-fafrd

p.s. that was a neat trick with the 'Click to Show' on the thread history - how did you do that?

R&D costs do figure into it, because they are costs that have to be paid for by the margin they make when they sell them retailers/distributors. While it may not be accounted for on the manufacturing line in the financials, it does directly affect wholesale prices, which in turn affect retail prices at an even greater level. I don't think we can assume that the local dimming zones are identical from a hardware perspective. I suspect Dolby is charging a significant licensing fee for Vision. While I do work for a retailer, I do not work in a store and do work with manufacturers and OEM's. While my knowledge in that area is probably not equivalent to yours, that side of the industry is not a mystery to me.

At this point though we seem to be going back and forth. I guess we'll see soon enough what they decide to do. I hope you end up getting to purchase the R series at $3000, I just won't hold my breath. smile.gif

Though I am an employee of Magnolia Home Theater, the views and opinions I express on this forum are those of my own and not my employer.
Speakerphile is offline  
post #387 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 03:39 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,211
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 742
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakerphile View Post

R&D costs do figure into it, because they are costs that have to be paid for by the margin they make when they sell them retailers/distributors. While it may not be accounted for on the manufacturing line in the financials, it does directly affect wholesale prices, which in turn affect retail prices at an even greater level. I don't think we can assume that the local dimming zones are identical from a hardware perspective. I suspect Dolby is charging a significant licensing fee for Vision. While I do work for a retailer, I do not work in a store and do work with manufacturers and OEM's. While my knowledge in that area is probably not equivalent to yours, that side of the industry is not a mystery to me.

At this point though we seem to be going back and forth. I guess we'll see soon enough what they decide to do. I hope you end up getting to purchase the R series at $3000, I just won't hold my breath. smile.gif

The more gross margin your business can generate (beyond the manufacturing costs of your product), the more R&D and Marketing expenses you can afford to grow the business going forward. No argument there, though that has no impact on the decision of where to price a specific product. If the product is priced so that there is no net margin (beyond the manufacturing costs), that is a non-starter. But even a low level of positive manufacturing margin is an option and will assure that as you sell a higher volume, you will not lose your shirt.

We should not argue about any more on this board because eventually the breakdowns will come out and we will have the objective answer, but I'd be willing to wager you that the number of LEDs on the backlight array of the 65" P and the R is identical (and likely also identical to the 65" M and E). Having those LEDs organized into different subgroups or dimming zones for the purpose of control will not introduce any meaningful cost differences. Intel used to disable the floating point coprocessor on their entry-level CPUs but the manufacturing costs for the entry level and the premium level were identical. It's all about standardized manufacturing and the leverage of volume. I'd have no idea what Dolby is charging for Vision, but if it is hundreds of dollars, it is not worth it. Licensing fees are typically measured in the low single digit %s, so if it is 2% of a $3000 product, that would translate into $60. And often it is a flat fee, so the more volume you sell, the lower the effective per-unit license fee.

I'd guess our understanding of manufacturing is pretty similar, so it is really our speculation on Vizios strategic goals that is leading us to different conclusions. You think they are going to try to make money off of the 65" Reference panels, I think they will use the opportunity to disrupt the market as much as they can to move up the ranks and into the top tier over the next 2-3 years. Suggest we circle back after they finally do announce pricing for the 65" R Series and again after CES 2016 to see which of us made the better call...

I passed on the Elite a couple years ago, and if the 65" Vizio Reference series is priced anywhere near where you think it will be, I will pass on that as well. The good news is that between the Vizio P, the Toshiba Radiance and the JVC, there is a very high likelihood that there are going to be 65" 4K FALD TVs with picture quality far exceeding that of my edge-lit 55" LG 5600 available in the $2000-3000 price bracket, and I didn't even imaging that might be the case just 10 days ago...

-fafrd
fafrd is offline  
post #388 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 04:40 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,411
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 331 Post(s)
Liked: 634
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

Thanks for all of this detail, Rogo. I didn't bother to factor in how the margin gets shared through the channel, but the examples you have sketched help me to make my point. In your 'reality' example, there is a total of $2000 of net margin (on top of build cost) or close to 60% of the retail price being shared between the manufacturer, the distributor, and the retailer. This is the right model for a volume-limited niche market where you are trying to maximize the profit pie being extracted from a few deep-pocketed customers. And this has been the model tat the top-tier brands like Sony and Samsung have followed with their flagship TV models for years. This Sharp Elite.

Now put yourself in the position of Vizio. They are the low-cost leader. They are a non-premium brand for consumers looking for value rather than quality. And suddenly (and unexpectedly), they have a flagship model that may be competitive at the highest levels in 2014. They COULD play the same game as Sony and Samsung. They would get a toehold in the high-end of the market, maybe capturing 20-30% and might sell a few thousand TVs and make an additional $550 x 2000 = $1.1M of margin from their effort.

Here's what I believe you are not seeing. Vizio has 4 lines of TVs it the reference gets produced. There is simply no way they are going to try to push volume in the R line. That's not the way any business works. And Vizio is a business.
Quote:
Or they could recognize the strategic value of that premium TV to moving up the ranks by pricing it to be available to a much wider segment of the TV-buying population. What I like about your scenario B is that it makes concrete just how possible this could be for Vizio. If you just think about the price of advertising and the buzz that would be generated 'for free' if the Vizio R wins the 2014 AV shootout and is priced at $2999, it's a no-brainer that that is a $1.1M investment worth making from their current position of low-cost-leader-moving-up-the-ranks.

What I think is that if they ship the R at all, it's designed to get people to upgrade from M to P... Vizio is certainly designing more margin into the P series than the M series; that's how you do it. And if they add a "halo product" atop the pyramid, people will be more likely to buy up the pyramid.
Quote:
And actually either your scenario B or your scenario C is consistent with the point I have been trying to make. I believe Vizio could price the 65" R at $2999 (and I hope that they do :-), but all along I have said that my prediction is that it will be priced between $3000 and $3500. It is the folks who have predicted pricing for the 65" R Series close to where Sony and Samsung price their flagship models (meaning $6000-7000) that are misreading the situation in my view.

So I don't know what the price will be. I suspect -- as you do -- it will be significantly lower than Samsung and Sony's price. First of all, there is no market for $6000-7000 TVs. It's not really clear to me why Sony even would price up there, except to say, "Hey, here's some TV we don't really want people to buy." (When I say "no market," I mean it's measurable in the few thousands units total range, please feel free to check with Sharp on this.) Vizio has pretty strong incentives to wait for Sony and Samsung and price, however, rather than going the other way.

If Sony prices at $6000, then Vizio is an absolute bargain at $4499. But it's also true that if Sony prices at $7000 and Vizio prices at $3499, no one will take Vizio's product seriously as a flagship. It won't matter if they win a shootout or get tons of positive reviews, it will be nearly impossible for the people who buy expensive TVs to believe that product is anywhere near as good.

Vizio would still sell a bunch of knowledgeable consumers, but that's not really why they are building a reference product (if they do actually offer it for sale, as we hope). It needs to be carefully positioned against competition and also sold well by Magnolia, Ken Cranes or some equivalent. As the 33rd Vizio SKU in Costco, it's only positive would be some incremental margin. And that's not at all why they are doing this.
Quote:
Thanks again for the effort on this post,

No problem. I look forward to further discussion and possibly even reviewing the Vizio if/when it arrives.
mo949 likes this.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #389 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 04:57 PM
AVS Special Member
 
RobertR1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,780
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 10 Post(s)
Liked: 26
I'm quite annoyed that Sony doesn't have a 75inch model for their flagship series. The size and price jump from 65 > 85 is too much.
RobertR1 is offline  
post #390 of 529 Old 01-12-2014, 04:58 PM
Member
 
Sragona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Irvine, CA
Posts: 26
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

First of all, there is no market for $6000-7000 TVs.

Don't tell that to the 20+ people that I've personally sold Samsung 75F8000's and 90" sharps to last year...

A small market for sure, not not non-existent.
Sragona is offline  
Reply LCD Flat Panel Displays

Tags
Samsung Ue40f8000 , Samsung Un46d8000 46 Inch 1080p 240hz 3d Led Hdtv Silver , Ces 2014
Gear in this thread



Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off