2016 TVs: Will FALD and/or OLED become mainstream? - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 03:16 PM - Thread Starter
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2016 TVs: Will FALD and/or OLED become mainstream?

Hi,

In 2015 we've seen UHD and wide color gamut become mainstream in mid-range TVs.

So what can we expect in 2016? Will FALD (Full Array Local Dimming) or OLED become mainstream, thereby enabling proper HDR? So far FALD has been demanding a dramatically higher price for the last 5+ years, and prices have not dropped much. Is there anything indicating that this will change in 2016?
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post #2 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 03:17 PM
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no. it will stay as a premium product so that they can charge more.
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post #3 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 03:18 PM
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I think we will see FALD on midrange models.
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post #4 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 03:28 PM
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FALD and OLEDs will not become mainstream for awhile. FALD has been out for awhile and it's price has not come down appreciably, appearing only in the top tier models of displays. The cheaper FALD displays cut back on the number of zones reducing its effectiveness.

If OLEDs were that promising, Sony and Samsung would not have given up the technology. Right now, OLEDs are too expensive, about $10,000 for a 4K display. I really doubt that will drop more than 20-30% next year.

If it's not a BIG screen, it's not a theater...
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post #5 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 04:13 PM
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OLEDs will rule the roost within 3 years. The advantages of it compared to LCD will take over the masses. LCDs will always have it's issues off axis viewing, not as good of blacks etc.

And no 4K TV – not even a curved one – has delivered a sense of UHD image depth as successfully and engagingly as the SONY 75X940C:
Sony XBR65X900B LG 55EC9300
PN64F8500 Plasma SOLD - Samsung UN65JS9000 SOLD ;)
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post #6 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 04:18 PM
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What u mean prices are mid-range? not economical?


I got a 50-inch P-Series 4k FALD(64zones) <$700


Albeit, it's NOT a contrast killer as much as my prev purchased 60-inch Sharp Elite. But my P-Series does remarkably well for its price-point!
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post #7 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 04:19 PM
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Lol Vizio has lots of cheap full arrays but you know there as low as FIVE (5) zones. which is almost pointless
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post #8 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 04:27 PM
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Lol Vizio has lots of cheap full arrays but you know there as low as FIVE (5) zones. which is almost pointless
Well the M-Series has a bunch...
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post #9 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 04:43 PM
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No, because they're both expensive and because the cheaper products they're competing against are being improved. Edge lit is coming closer to FALD quality, LED brightness and color gamut are improving. The only area where LED might never catch OLED is in wide viewing angle.

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post #10 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 05:03 PM
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ALL LCDs should be full array led with local dimming.
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Last edited by losservatore; 06-08-2015 at 05:08 PM.
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post #11 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 05:04 PM - Thread Starter
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Is edge-lit really coming closer to FALD in black level and contrast? From what I've heard there hasn't been much improvement the last few years in those areas on edge-lit.

Also, if Vizio can provide cheap FALD TVs with reasonable amount of zones, is there any reason Sony/Samsung/... should not also be able to do the same if they want to? Obviously the FALD panels are not that expensive anymore, judging by the Vizio prices.
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post #12 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 05:11 PM - Thread Starter
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Maybe the problem for the established brands is this: If they make FALD mainstream in mid-range models, what are they going to add in the top end models?

But given the competition, perhaps they will have no choice but to introduce FALD in the mainstream models next year after all. And then have OLED in the top range models?
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post #13 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 05:52 PM
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The first time I saw an OLED display was in NZ last year. It was a 1080P set and it blew away every LCD in the store. I was sold on the spot. OLED has been dropping in price from initial launch considerably. Obviously it's no where near LCD's in pricing, but it will be in a few years. LCD will always be cheaper because, right now, it's the lesser technology and far cheaper to produce.

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post #14 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 05:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leftyguitar1963 View Post
What u mean prices are mid-range? not economical?


I got a 50-inch P-Series 4k FALD(64zones) <$700


Albeit, it's NOT a contrast killer as much as my prev purchased 60-inch Sharp Elite. But my P-Series does remarkably well for its price-point!
Some TVs have almost 400 zones... You get what you pay for...

If it's not a BIG screen, it's not a theater...
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post #15 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 06:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fjodor2000 View Post
Is edge-lit really coming closer to FALD in black level and contrast?
I believe so. I have a 2015 edge lit set (JS9000) and a 2014 edge lit set (HU8550), and I think the 2015 model is considerably better. I haven't seen edge lit and FALD side-by-side, but in Vincent Teoh's review of the JS9000, he compares it to it's FALD counterpart, the JS9500:
Quote:
Perhaps a more pertinent question for potential buyers of the UE65JS9000 is whether there’s any significant drop-off in picture performance versus the highest-end 65JS9500. As expected, the FALD-toting JS9500 holds the upper hand in overall black rendition, backlight uniformity and HDR impact when viewed in a dimly-lit room, but these advantages diminish rapidly once the content or viewing environment gets brighter.
http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/ue65j...1503154027.htm

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post #16 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 07:15 PM
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I think so.

2016 will most likely be evolutionary rather than revolutionary. In other words, next years sets will most likely just build upon the new technology that we got this year. I'm expecting:

1. FALD will be on all of the flagship models with increased dimming zones. FALD might also trickle down to the non flagship high end models as well. New tech should allow them to make FALD displays that are thinner and cheaper.

2. All mid-high end TVs will have full 100% DCI P3 color gamut or a little higher. Most manufacturers were unable to achieve the full DCI gamut this year (for example, the Samsung SUHD models top out at 92%) but as quantum dot technology develops further, it should allow TV makers to push more color.

3. All mid-high end TVs will have HDR. The higher end TVs will obviously have better HDR with brighter highlights but IMO bringing HDR down to the mid tier models will definitely speed up its growth.

As for OLED, I fear it may remain a niche product. The prices will come down and the screens will get bigger but I have a feeling that the HDR ability and wide color gamuts of the new LCDs may delay the success of OLED.
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post #17 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 07:36 PM
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OLED will remain a niche product for awhile. WCG/HDR/FALD will have a price point OLED simply can not match. WHF will never be technically superior to OLED, but will be close enough for the mass consumer market. OLED needs a serious breakthrough to increase its yields to make it a viable product in the large format market. Just for comparison here are some WHF models versus the $8000 65" and $25000 77" OLED.


Samsung 65" UN65JS9500 (150 zones) $3995
Samsung 78" UN78JS9500 (200 zones) $9995
Samsung 88" UN88JS9500 (Over 200 zones) $19995
Panasonic 65" 65CX900 (128 zone IPS) $4500
Panasonic 65" 65CX850 (64-72? zones) $3500
Vizio 65" R65 (384 zones, DolbyVision) $3500
Vizio 120" R120 (384 zone, DolbyVision) $50000?
Hisense 65" 65XT900 (144 zone, DolbyVision?) $2500
Hisense 65" 65XT910 (240zone, curved, 1200nits peak) $3000
Hisense 78" 78XT920 (288zone, curved China only?) $7500
Sony 75" 75X940C (84? zones) $7000
Sharp 80" LC-80XU30 (110? zones, faux 8K, N-Black AG) $11000
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post #18 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 07:52 PM
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Sony 75" 75X940C (84? zones) $7000
75X940C

120 zones. 15 x 8.
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post #19 of 47 Old 06-08-2015, 08:31 PM
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Originally Posted by sytech View Post
OLED will remain a niche product for awhile. WCG/HDR/FALD will have a price point OLED simply can not match. WHF will never be technically superior to OLED, but will be close enough for the mass consumer market. OLED needs a serious breakthrough to increase its yields to make it a viable product in the large format market. Just for comparison here are some WHF models versus the $8000 65" and $25000 77" OLED.


Samsung 65" UN65JS9500 (150 zones) $3995
Samsung 78" UN78JS9500 (200 zones) $9995
Samsung 88" UN88JS9500 (Over 200 zones) $19995
Panasonic 65" 65CX900 (128 zone IPS) $4500
Panasonic 65" 65CX850 (64-72? zones) $3500
Vizio 65" R65 (384 zones, DolbyVision) $3500
Vizio 120" R120 (384 zone, DolbyVision) $50000?
Hisense 65" 65XT900 (144 zone, DolbyVision?) $2500
Hisense 65" 65XT910 (240zone, curved, 1200nits peak) $3000
Hisense 78" 78XT920 (288zone, curved China only?) $7500
Sony 75" 75X940C (84? zones) $7000
Sharp 80" LC-80XU30 (110? zones, faux 8K, N-Black AG) $11000



where did you get these prices.....
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post #20 of 47 Old 06-09-2015, 12:39 PM - Thread Starter
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I think so.

2016 will most likely be evolutionary rather than revolutionary. In other words, next years sets will most likely just build upon the new technology that we got this year. I'm expecting:

1. FALD will be on all of the flagship models with increased dimming zones. FALD might also trickle down to the non flagship high end models as well. New tech should allow them to make FALD displays that are thinner and cheaper.

2. All mid-high end TVs will have full 100% DCI P3 color gamut or a little higher. Most manufacturers were unable to achieve the full DCI gamut this year (for example, the Samsung SUHD models top out at 92%) but as quantum dot technology develops further, it should allow TV makers to push more color.

3. All mid-high end TVs will have HDR. The higher end TVs will obviously have better HDR with brighter highlights but IMO bringing HDR down to the mid tier models will definitely speed up its growth.

As for OLED, I fear it may remain a niche product. The prices will come down and the screens will get bigger but I have a feeling that the HDR ability and wide color gamuts of the new LCDs may delay the success of OLED.
1. If FALD trickles down from high-end to mid-range, I would consider that more than evolutionary.

3. Are you suggesting it will be edge-lit based HDR? I wonder how good that'll be.

As for OLED, LG dropped the price significantly some time after release. As can be read here : "About a year ago, a 55-inch OLED TV cost about $15,000. Six months later, the price had nearly halved. And today, the LG 55EC9300 brings the cost of OLED ownership down to an enticing $3500, with further price reductions likely in the near future.". Today you can get the 55" EC9300 OLED for $2500 at Amazon. Is there any reason not to believe the next generation LG OLED TVs also will drop significantly in price after having been on the market for a while?
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post #21 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 10:40 AM
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Samsung's new business class OLED: http://www.businesswire.com/news/hom...y#.VXh00mDsfcY

Once OLED manufacturing is perfected and businesses start buying these displays, the prices will drop like crazy. I don't think it's possible to do this with LCD, so I think LCD has a limited future.

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post #22 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 10:49 AM
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I believe so. I have a 2015 edge lit set (JS9000) and a 2014 edge lit set (HU8550), and I think the 2015 model is considerably better. I haven't seen edge lit and FALD side-by-side, but in Vincent Teoh's review of the JS9000, he compares it to it's FALD counterpart, the JS9500: http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/ue65j...1503154027.htm
Nah, after my own extensive testing with all 3 models of the SUHD line up I can tell you that's a load of dung.


The Edge lit models, while performing admirably (especially with the cinema black for letterbox movies), ain't nowhere near FALD quality.


Logistically it's impossible anyways, FALD gives an entire extra dimension of dimming zones to play around with.(X and Y vs just X OR Y for edge lit)
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post #23 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by pgwalsh View Post
Samsung's new business class OLED: http://www.businesswire.com/news/hom...y#.VXh00mDsfcY

Once OLED manufacturing is perfected and businesses start buying these displays, the prices will drop like crazy. I don't think it's possible to do this with LCD, so I think LCD has a limited future.
At the moment these are prototypes so we might never hear about them again..
http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/10/s...arent-display/

According oled-info Samsungs current large-area OLED capacity is limited so the prices will not drop like crazy any time soon..
http://www.oled-info.com/samsung-dis...d-mirror-oleds
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post #24 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 11:35 AM
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Nah, after my own extensive testing with all 3 models of the SUHD line up I can tell you that's a load of dung.


The Edge lit models, while performing admirably (especially with the cinema black for letterbox movies), ain't nowhere near FALD quality.


Logistically it's impossible anyways, FALD gives an entire extra dimension of dimming zones to play around with.(X and Y vs just X OR Y for edge lit)
What Teoh is saying is that FALD will perform better in a dim lit room. In a normal lit room Edge Lit and FALD will perform similar. That is how it suppost to be. If you do not planning on watching stuff in the dark you might as well buy a Thousand dollar LED.

btw in this years VE Shootout there will be four TVs, a OLED and three FALDs. This clearly shows that the FALDs are the best performing LCd's (in a dim lit room) on the market.
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What Teoh is saying is that FALD will perform better in a dim lit room. In a normal lit room Edge Lit and FALD will perform similar. That is how it suppost to be. If you do not planning on watching stuff in the dark you might as well buy a Thousand dollar LED.
How can an edge-lit TV manage to display very bright and very dark parts of the image at the same time as good as FALD or OLED, when the contrast between those areas is big?
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OLEDs will rule the roost within 3 years. The advantages of it compared to LCD will take over the masses. LCDs will always have it's issues off axis viewing, not as good of blacks etc.
I disagree. While it is true that the PQ of OLED is better than LCD, the economics will forever be a barrier for it becoming mainstream. Unless there are some industry changing discoveries that lower production costs of OLED it will forever be relegated to a very niche market. Assuming it doesn't go the way of plasma.

Literally billions have already been spent in R & D with most manufacturers besides LG giving up on it entirely
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I disagree. While it is true that the PQ of OLED is better than LCD, the economics will forever be a barrier for it becoming mainstream.
You can get a 55" OLED LG EC9300 for $2500. If LG can sell it for that, where is the economic barrier?

Also, yields keep improving so the price will drop even further going forward. Some predict that OLED will actually be cheaper to produce than LCD in the future.
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
What Teoh is saying is that FALD will perform better in a dim lit room. In a normal lit room Edge Lit and FALD will perform similar. That is how it suppost to be. If you do not planning on watching stuff in the dark you might as well buy a Thousand dollar LED.

btw in this years VE Shootout there will be four TVs, a OLED and three FALDs. This clearly shows that the FALDs are the best performing LCd's (in a dim lit room) on the market.
I disagree with this as well. You don't get any brighter room environment than on the Best Buy showroom floor. The deep inky blacks of the Vizio P demo absolutely blew away the edge lit 4K Samsung demo. It made Samsung look like a cheap Walmart off brand display.
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post #29 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 11:58 AM
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To me, the biggest weakness in LEDs whether it is FALD or edge-lit are:
1. off axis viewing unless you get an IPS panel which reduces contrast ten-fold
2. The use of dynamic light control which introduces gamma inconsistencies.

OLED allows full control of each pixel, which means better light control overall. That's why OLEDs are so engrossing to look at.

FALD cannot control light as much as an OLED, it is still a compromise. Plasma was a far better viewing experience than LEDs but unfortunately it was expensive and not energy efficient. You have better light control, great off-axis viewing but limited light output.
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post #30 of 47 Old 06-10-2015, 12:20 PM
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You can get a 55" OLED LG EC9300 for $2500. If LG can sell it for that, where is the economic barrier?

Also, yields keep improving so the price will drop even further going forward. Some predict that OLED will actually be cheaper to produce than LCD in the future.
That's still a 400%-500% margin increase above the same sized LCD's. Another thing that is hurting them IMO is the marketing approach they take to sell them. They really shine in a darker room environment. They should be demo'ing them in all their glory at Magnolia centers. Having them right out there under the bright harsh lights is taking away their main selling point. Under those harsh lights they don't look that much different than the other LCD displays next to them. They should be marketed towards those looking for top end displays.
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