Originally Posted by korg
Its a specialty product and trust me we will eventually see a new dual format player. As time goes by and chips become more powerful and cheaper it would be very easy to do. Remember it won't be advertised as a combo player but something that can play most formats.
While possible, I will be surprised. It is not just a chip issue. One needs a different optical assembly (different from a standard Blu-ray pickup, it maybe able to do both, but needs to be specially designed to do so). It also needs quite different software (HDi in particular). Finally, it needs separate QA. All of these things add quite a bit of cost, and would make this product quite expensive. The longer it takes to get to market, the less interesting it becomes.
An extra hundred thousand sales for something thats easy to do happens all the time in the electronics world.
Again, it is not that easy. It would be one thing if there were many combination players out today that were very successful. One of those manufactures might decide to continue production and minor tweaking for a small niche market. Given that only two companies ever produced one and at least one of those is not really HD DVD compliant, just can play movie content but nothing else, there is not a lot of expertise in this space.
Also don't forget that HD hardware prices were not cheap until the latter half of 07. So there are owners who can and are willing to spend the extra dough so they can keep and use their collection.
You do not think these people have already bought some number of spare players and will not need to replace their hardware for quite some time? The longer it takes for this market to develop, the smaller it will be and the less interesting to a manufacturer.
If there are a million HD-DVD owners in the world then at worst close to hundred thousand are gonna be HD fans who've kept their movies (no double dipping on blu) and would buy any new HD-DVD hardware.
Over what period? Let us postulate that there are 100,000 HD DVD fans willing to pay quite a bit extra for an HD DVD capable player.
Let us further speculate that most of them have already purchased some number of spare players, so that they are not in any hurry to replace any of their gear. Now let us add a 5% annual failure rate after 2 years (probably quite high), for around 5,000 players a year.
So far, these players (even those that are not compliant), have been $200 or so more expensive than their Blu-ray only counter parts. As this is a very small niche, they are unlikely to get cheaper in relative terms.
For some period, new in box players will still be available via e-bay and some liquidators. After that, working used players will still be around these are likely to be available for less than that $200 premium and for some of these fans will be better as they will not want anything tainted by Blu-ray (not sure how big a group that will be). Let us assume that covers 30% of our potential demand (probably a low estimate).
If we figure a 25% gross profit margin, they make $50 per box. Their likely potential annual sales for this product is around 3,500 pieces with a gross profit of $175,000 which might or might not cover their cost of development. Even these assumptions are based on this being an inexpensive player (not something like a Denon for $2,000).
The smaller the potential market, the greater the cost per unit needs to be to cover development, testing and support. The further out this product gets delivered, the smaller this potential market is.
Unlike Laserdisc, there are very few (if any) titles on HD DVD that will not be available on Blu-ray within two years. Some of these will be released with superior Blu-ray versions (higher bit-rate encodes, lossless audio, more special features, better understanding of the process, etc.
) encouraging people to replace their HD DVD copy, lessening demand further.
We will see what happens, but I will be surprised if we see new players after this year.