LG to Continue HD DVD Support - Page 3 - AVS Forum
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post #61 of 77 Old 02-29-2008, 06:09 AM
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Originally Posted by angelo913 View Post

Do you expect with BD-Live, BD-J and Real-Time HD audio decoding all at the same time isn't going to cause some processing delays or hiccups or intermittent choppy audio within the audio playback.

angelo, I think you greatly underestimate the processing power of the PS3. For one thing the most difficult task by far is decoding the primary and secondary video streams and the PS3 already does that. In fact I watched several minutes of Resident Evil Extinction at 1.5x speed with the PiP track on and using the Dolby TrueHD audio track and it played perfectly. As for BD-Live that is the name of the profile and BD-J is what would be used for internet extras and BD-J already runs great on the PS3.


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Plus I doubt Dolby-Digital or DTS are going freely give the source code for their HD codecs.

The PS3 can already decode up to 7.1 channel Dolby TrueHD.
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post #62 of 77 Old 02-29-2008, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by pleasedontkill View Post

I personally would pay 50-100 dollars more for a dual player that's full featured.

That is the problem. So far, even with a potentially growing market, these players had cost more than $200 more than their Blu-ray only equivalents, in a market that is at most 1 million players (assuming every HD DVD player would be replaced), that number is not likely to decrease substantially. How many people who paid $98 for a player, are going to pay $500 or more for a dual format player to replace it? Many of them will not bother to buy into Blu-ray until it gets down to $200, which might not be until next year.


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So I don't see why a company wÓuldnt want to make 50-100 dollars more in sales.

Because they do not care much about making extra sales, but only about making extra profit. You are willing to pay $50 - $100 more, that means that they are likely to only make $12.50 - $25 in extra profit not counting any R&D costs that would have to be amortized over this small group of players produced. LG will continue to sell what they have as it is already a sunk cost for them. To get them to do real development on a new player that supports HDi, etc. would mean investing in a tiny and shrinking market.


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Heck even you bluray only guys might jump on the great deals if there was a great dual player in the market right now. After all its aboutthe movies not formats right??

Blu-ray owners that did not buy players when they were $98, are unlikely to buy them for $200 more.

Toshiba has stated that 1.3 million players were sold worldwide. Of those 300,000 were XBox 360 add on drives. Given that some number of these people have bought multiple players and quite a few paid under $150, to expect more than a small percentage of them to replace (all) their players for the next two years with players that will cost 1.5 - 2 times as much additional (not counting the 2-3 times more for the underlying Blu-ray player) for functionality they already have to get the convenience of a single player is not reasonable.

While a small number of you are saying that you would pay extra, even more of you are saying that you will not buy Blu-ray players until they get down to under $200. That probably will not happen for a while (9-18 months). The longer that takes, the more HD DVD exclusive titles will have been replaced by Blu-ray titles (some of which will be superior thanks to lossless audio, higher bit rate encodes, new features and/or just more experience producing these discs).

I think it is unlikely that we will see LG spend much money on developing true dual format players (i.e. ones that are fully compliant with both sets of specs).

/carmi
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post #63 of 77 Old 02-29-2008, 10:49 AM
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Majortom well said. Didn't really see it in that point just looking for my convienence. Lol. So I guess I should sell my collection. Too bad because I wanted to buy beowulf. So when can I expect it on bluray
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post #64 of 77 Old 02-29-2008, 10:00 PM
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Its a specialty product and trust me we will eventually see a new dual format player. As time goes by and chips become more powerful and cheaper it would be very easy to do. Remember it won't be advertised as a combo player but something that can play most formats.

An extra hundred thousand sales for something thats easy to do happens all the time in the electronics world. Also don't forget that HD hardware prices were not cheap until the latter half of 07. So there are owners who can and are willing to spend the extra dough so they can keep and use their collection.

If there are a million HD-DVD owners in the world then at worst close to hundred thousand are gonna be HD fans who've kept their movies (no double dipping on blu) and would buy any new HD-DVD hardware.
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post #65 of 77 Old 03-01-2008, 05:51 AM
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Originally Posted by korg View Post

Its a specialty product and trust me we will eventually see a new dual format player. As time goes by and chips become more powerful and cheaper it would be very easy to do. Remember it won't be advertised as a combo player but something that can play most formats.

While possible, I will be surprised. It is not just a chip issue. One needs a different optical assembly (different from a standard Blu-ray pickup, it maybe able to do both, but needs to be specially designed to do so). It also needs quite different software (HDi in particular). Finally, it needs separate QA. All of these things add quite a bit of cost, and would make this product quite expensive. The longer it takes to get to market, the less interesting it becomes.

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An extra hundred thousand sales for something thats easy to do happens all the time in the electronics world.

Again, it is not that easy. It would be one thing if there were many combination players out today that were very successful. One of those manufactures might decide to continue production and minor tweaking for a small niche market. Given that only two companies ever produced one and at least one of those is not really HD DVD compliant, just can play movie content but nothing else, there is not a lot of expertise in this space.


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Also don't forget that HD hardware prices were not cheap until the latter half of 07. So there are owners who can and are willing to spend the extra dough so they can keep and use their collection.

You do not think these people have already bought some number of spare players and will not need to replace their hardware for quite some time? The longer it takes for this market to develop, the smaller it will be and the less interesting to a manufacturer.

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If there are a million HD-DVD owners in the world then at worst close to hundred thousand are gonna be HD fans who've kept their movies (no double dipping on blu) and would buy any new HD-DVD hardware.

Over what period? Let us postulate that there are 100,000 HD DVD fans willing to pay quite a bit extra for an HD DVD capable player.

Let us further speculate that most of them have already purchased some number of spare players, so that they are not in any hurry to replace any of their gear. Now let us add a 5% annual failure rate after 2 years (probably quite high), for around 5,000 players a year.

So far, these players (even those that are not compliant), have been $200 or so more expensive than their Blu-ray only counter parts. As this is a very small niche, they are unlikely to get cheaper in relative terms.

For some period, new in box players will still be available via e-bay and some liquidators. After that, working used players will still be around these are likely to be available for less than that $200 premium and for some of these fans will be better as they will not want anything tainted by Blu-ray (not sure how big a group that will be). Let us assume that covers 30% of our potential demand (probably a low estimate).

If we figure a 25% gross profit margin, they make $50 per box. Their likely potential annual sales for this product is around 3,500 pieces with a gross profit of $175,000 which might or might not cover their cost of development. Even these assumptions are based on this being an inexpensive player (not something like a Denon for $2,000).

The smaller the potential market, the greater the cost per unit needs to be to cover development, testing and support. The further out this product gets delivered, the smaller this potential market is.

Unlike Laserdisc, there are very few (if any) titles on HD DVD that will not be available on Blu-ray within two years. Some of these will be released with superior Blu-ray versions (higher bit-rate encodes, lossless audio, more special features, better understanding of the process, etc.) encouraging people to replace their HD DVD copy, lessening demand further.

We will see what happens, but I will be surprised if we see new players after this year.

/carmi
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post #66 of 77 Old 03-01-2008, 06:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majortom View Post

Let us further speculate that most of them have already purchased some number of spare players, so that they are not in any hurry to replace any of their gear. Now let us add a 5% annual failure rate after 2 years (probably quite high), for around 5,000 players a year.

More importantly, let us not speculate that a large portion of the HD-DVD fan base was enamored by HD-DVD's low cost. Of the small % who would pay extra money for a dual format player, how many of them have enough HD-DVD's to make it necessary?

I think we agree, there will not be a new dual format player. The market is way to small. Toshiba stated they sold 700,000 stand alone units, and almost a 150,000 of those were after the big price drops <$250. This is NOT a lucrative market for hardware manufacturers. In fact, it never was, which is why Toshiba never got another manufacturer to do anything but rebadge a Toshiba.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #67 of 77 Old 03-01-2008, 11:40 PM
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All I'm saying is that almost everyone that has HD will go Blu and I doubt they will keep their HD players connected for long. So either they will get rid of their software which will end up in someone elses hand or it will collect dust. They will upgrade their blu players when prices come down just as they did with DVD. At that time if they can get a dual format player that can play all their HDM they will. We have differing opinions about whether any CE will see a potential profit in this area. I think someone will take a chance on it.

My reasoning is that down the line when Blu hardware finally becomes finalized prices come down and is easier to manufacture it will be possible to include HD playback in one model. That possibility is most likely limited to LG, Samsung, and Toshiba since they have experience with HD-DVD.

Believe me I can see why anyone would be skeptical because I am as well but the possibility is there. My own gut feeling based on what I've seen in the electronics world is that it will be given a shot at least once.
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post #68 of 77 Old 03-02-2008, 12:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majortom View Post

Toshiba has stated that 1.3 million players were sold worldwide. Of those 300,000 were XBox 360 add on drives.

The 1.3 million number came from websites that included the 300,000 HD DVD drives. The total number of stand alone HD DVD players based on Toshiba's own numbers was 730,000 worldwide.


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Originally Posted by korg View Post

Its a specialty product and trust me we will eventually see a new dual format player.

That is possible but as the market size for dual format players decreases the premium put on such products would only increase.
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post #69 of 77 Old 03-02-2008, 03:29 AM
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Originally Posted by korg View Post

All I'm saying is that almost everyone that has HD will go Blu and I doubt they will keep their HD players connected for long.

I think how likely they are to leave their HD DVD player connected is directly proportional to how much software they have. With 10 or fewer titles, they are very likely not to bother. For those people, purchasing Blu-ray copies of their old HD DVD releases will be cheaper than buying a combination player.

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So either they will get rid of their software which will end up in someone elses hand or it will collect dust.

Or it will simply get thrown out as it is replaced with Blu-ray copies. Again, as we move forward it is likely that better versions of much of this content will produced for Blu-ray.

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They will upgrade their blu players when prices come down just as they did with DVD. At that time if they can get a dual format player that can play all their HDM they will.

No. If they can get a player that will play all their media for less than the cost of purchasing Blu-ray copies of that same media, they might. On the other hand if they have gone through a whole sales cycle (at least 2 years) without playing those title (if they really unplug their players as you suggest), I cannot believe they will bother to spend the more than $200 premium to watch content they clearly do not care about. If they leave their player plugged in, they have even less incentive to bother paying that premium.

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We have differing opinions about whether any CE will see a potential profit in this area. I think someone will take a chance on it.

You are correct, we have different opinions. I will be quite surprised if it happens.

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My reasoning is that down the line when Blu hardware finally becomes finalized prices come down and is easier to manufacture it will be possible to include HD playback in one model. That possibility is most likely limited to LG, Samsung, and Toshiba since they have experience with HD-DVD.

Given that no one is going to put any energy into developing HD DVD products, and chipset vendors are likely to drop all HD DVD support from their chips (it just adds complexity and cost that will likely earn them no return), developing a dual format player will get harder, not easier. Remember that while these formats share certain things (some codecs), they have enough differences that adding chipset support for these features would require substantial effort. What this means is that it is likely that the price premium for a dual format player will increase over time, not decrease.

For every $20 increase in this premium, the number of discs that can be purchased for an equivalent price goes up by about one. This does not include benefits of repurchasing like being able to play that new content in more places (i.e. everywhere there is a Blu-ray player vs. just in those places where one has a dual format player), better releases (higher bit rate encodes, lossless audio, new HD extras, etc.) and more durable discs.

Would you rather spend $200 (or more) to be able to play your old discs on one monitor in your house or $200 to repurchase 10 discs and be able to play them on all your displays (figuring that as one buys newer Blu-ray players ones older ones will get moved to other, less important displays)?

/carmi
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post #70 of 77 Old 03-02-2008, 03:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

The 1.3 million number came from websites that included the 300,000 HD DVD drives. The total number of stand alone HD DVD players based on Toshiba's own numbers was 730,000 worldwide.

Actually, it came from my misreading the 1.03 million as 1.3 million when I was corrected last time (from Engadget's original report of 300,000 standalone players and 300,000 Xbox 360 add-ons). :-) Sorry.

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That is possible but as the market size for dual format players decreases the premium put on such products would only increase.

Correct, and more importantly, as chipset makers begin to drop support for HD DVD these premiums will skyrocket.

/carmi
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post #71 of 77 Old 03-07-2008, 05:47 PM
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With the possibility of Samsung releasing a combo player now dead, my earlier prediction of LG BH200's price rising will become reality. It's at $600 now - if you want one this will be the best price for at least the next three to six months. Then their might be a slight dip if demand drops - probably no cheaper than $475 - then it will get more expensive as LG ends production.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #72 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 09:23 AM
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This topic can be closed as LG has officially stated that the BH200 will be dropped now.
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post #73 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 09:49 AM
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It was closed, until you brought it back up again . It's being discussed here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1021412

LG have said they'll drop the BH200 by the end of the year (or something like that). That's not any time soon.
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post #74 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 12:18 PM
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I am getting tired of Blu-ray know-it-alls (take a bow, majortom) telling us all how we should just give up on our HD DVD hardware and software, because "now that the HD DVD is dead..." Life's too short for moral indignation about a piece of machinery. Get out of your parents' basement, take a walk, get a dog, get married - do something. And in the meantime, I will enjoy watching films form all the regions on SD DVD, HD DVD and BD on my tweaked BH200. Try to do that on a dedicated BD player.....

BH 200 (55 53 00 80 00 05 00 40) PAL/NTSC w.Network Update and region code hack, F/W December 08, driver 702 connected by SPDIF to Yamaha HTR 6060 and by HDMI to Toshiba Monitor 26HL84
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post #75 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmadden View Post

This topic can be closed as LG has officially stated that the BH200 will be dropped now.

Not true if you read this:

Quote:


I found the LG BH200 at this UK store (but out of stock):

http://www.askdirect.co.uk/uview?cal...earch&id=11303

I e-mailed them and this was their responce:

Quote:


Quote:
From: Sales @ AskDirect [mailto:sales@askdirect.co.uk]
Sent: 15 May 2008 16:17
Subject: RE: LG BH200 Super Blu Player

We have just got the news today that LG will no longer be releasing the BH200 and there will also be no replacement product available until the end of the year.
It's available in Mainland Europe so clearly they mean The UK. I also pointed out it is out in The UK but is virtually impossible to find in stock.

NO REPLACEMENT TILL THE END OF THE YEAR!!!!

this means the BH300 will be released then, or so we hope.

Athanasios


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post #76 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 01:40 PM
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I hope that's true but it does contradict that Korean article. I guess all we do know is LG (and Samsung) are probably gradually phasing out their current Combo Players.
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post #77 of 77 Old 05-16-2008, 05:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majortom View Post

Would you rather spend $200 (or more) to be able to play your old discs on one monitor in your house or $200 to repurchase 10 discs and be able to play them on all your displays (figuring that as one buys newer Blu-ray players ones older ones will get moved to other, less important displays)?

Personally, I love owning hardware, so I'd pick the former. That's why although I have 2 HD DVD players and the PS3, I chose to spend 800 dollars to buy both the BD-UP5000, and BH200. (It's not stupidity, it's a preference. )
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