THX Chief Scientist: ...it's too late for Blu-ray - Page 11 - AVS Forum
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post #301 of 328 Old 04-17-2008, 08:16 PM
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It costs networks more money to stream online, they generate less ad revenue, their viewership is lower, what isn't there to love?

It isn't the size of the disk that counts, but how you use it.

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4K cinema at 60mbps, coming soon to a kiosk near you.
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post #302 of 328 Old 04-18-2008, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by 30XS955 User View Post

It costs networks more money to stream online, they generate less ad revenue, their viewership is lower, what isn't there to love?

And what does that have to do with his article? Networks have had ad revenue pressure since the first TiVo shipped and allowed people to

A. Not watch it live
B. Skip the commercials
C. Ease of use compared to VCR.

They will figure it out by putting the ad's directly into the shows. But that topic has little relevance on the fact people are watching a shatload of content online already. And Ill be surprised if the TCO for streaming is much more than the manufacturing and distribution process Blu-Ray.
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post #303 of 328 Old 04-21-2008, 01:44 AM
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Take a look at your local Block Buster. How much do you think it costs them to lease there space, pay employees, or ship video's to there store.
Block Buster could set up 10 or 15 kiosks easily for the price of one store and save a ton on labor costs. The Kiosks wouldn't even need a super fast internet connection because Block Buster could start uploading movies weeks before thier release date. Also the players should be dirt cheap to make because they require no moving parts or lasers and could fit in your hand.

Right now the gas station our family owns has a DVD kiosk thats connected to the internet. The machine automatically downloads the latest movie trailers and displays them on a screen. Another great thing is you can rent or buy the DVD's andif you keep a rental over 7 days the movie is yours. Also you can check what movies the machine has on-line.

We don't own the machine but get payed for the space each month and get free rentals.
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post #304 of 328 Old 04-21-2008, 07:34 AM
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I think kiosks that write to memory stix or thumb drives are going to be the future. Along with some other type of holographic disk. It makes sense, because it takes up very little real estate floor space. Every grocery store could have one. Just like atm machines. Its comming. Just a matter of when. I see this as more of a rental market.

Netflix has changed the landscape of home media for ever. Anything that can take up less space and require less employees or physical stores(blockbuster) is going to make it happen.

Consumers want choice. We have bd for the high end people who demand the best pic and audio quality and downloads and vod and everything else for people who don't have to have the BEST.

I see this as a plus. The more options the better. The studios know this. The more options the more likely they will get to more consumers watching their movies.

Say you have a family of 5 making $35K a year. I highly doubt they are going to be the ones buying a $400 machine and buying BD's. They are likely to spend the least amount as possible. That is why $5 dvd's sell so well at walmart. They figure heck it cost $4 to rent at bb or just $1 more and I own it.
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post #305 of 328 Old 05-02-2008, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post

I think kiosks that write to memory stix or thumb drives are going to be the future. Along with some other type of holographic disk. It makes sense, because it takes up very little real estate floor space. Every grocery store could have one. Just like atm machines. Its comming. Just a matter of when. I see this as more of a rental market.

Netflix has changed the landscape of home media for ever. Anything that can take up less space and require less employees or physical stores(blockbuster) is going to make it happen.

Consumers want choice. We have bd for the high end people who demand the best pic and audio quality and downloads and vod and everything else for people who don't have to have the BEST.

I see this as a plus. The more options the better. The studios know this. The more options the more likely they will get to more consumers watching their movies.

Say you have a family of 5 making $35K a year. I highly doubt they are going to be the ones buying a $400 machine and buying BD's. They are likely to spend the least amount as possible. That is why $5 dvd's sell so well at walmart. They figure heck it cost $4 to rent at bb or just $1 more and I own it.


Why go to a Kiosk when you can download the file from the comfort of your couch with an Apple TV or similar product? In my opinion... the format war is over... Video Downloads have won. Now its just a battle to see which one wins... Apple, Microsoft, Vudu, Comcast, etc....
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post #306 of 328 Old 05-16-2008, 09:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post

I think kiosks that write to memory stix or thumb drives are going to be the future. Along with some other type of holographic disk. It makes sense, because it takes up very little real estate floor space. Every grocery store could have one. Just like atm machines. Its comming. Just a matter of when. I see this as more of a rental market.

Netflix has changed the landscape of home media for ever. Anything that can take up less space and require less employees or physical stores(blockbuster) is going to make it happen.

Consumers want choice. We have bd for the high end people who demand the best pic and audio quality and downloads and vod and everything else for people who don't have to have the BEST.

I see this as a plus. The more options the better. The studios know this. The more options the more likely they will get to more consumers watching their movies.

Say you have a family of 5 making $35K a year. I highly doubt they are going to be the ones buying a $400 machine and buying BD's. They are likely to spend the least amount as possible. That is why $5 dvd's sell so well at walmart. They figure heck it cost $4 to rent at bb or just $1 more and I own it.

I agree. The option that is most convenient and least expensive for the consumer, will have the largest share of the market though.
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post #307 of 328 Old 05-20-2008, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.


I was just reading thru this thread from the beginning, so sorry for dragging this out.. but this made me laugh out loud.

No doubt, Popular Science predicted these decades ago, and by now everyone would be driving one. I give them more credibility than a 'chief scientist' at THX. While I'm discounting moving to a completely different format than optical, it's not going to happen that quick. A lot of valid points as to why have already been pointed out and I'm still back a bit in this thread. However, if you think it's going to make it cheaper for the consumer, pass it over here. Logical and profitable often are at opposite ends of the spectrum, and the latter is always the one that wins in my experience.
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post #308 of 328 Old 05-20-2008, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fivepoint View Post

Why go to a Kiosk when you can download the file from the comfort of your couch with an Apple TV or similar product? In my opinion... the format war is over... Video Downloads have won. Now its just a battle to see which one wins... Apple, Microsoft, Vudu, Comcast, etc....

I don't think so... The silver disc isn't going anywhere soon. The DRM restrictions on video downloads are just that - RESTRICTIONS. Restrictions when you can watch it. How long you have to watch it. Where you can watch it - you can't really take it anywhere (unless you're a 2" iPod fan). Let's face it. It's forever intrinsically bound to your HTPC, Vudu box, or whatever! How portable is that? Can't take it to the lake house. Can't take it in the van for the kids. You get the picture... Sure you could possibly stream it around your house, but just how realistic is that for the masses? Restrictions? You bet. And plenty of them. Not until we have access to light-speed bandwidth will video downloads ever make a dent in the typical movie watching public's habits. And that's still a long way off. As some else said and I paraphrase, "A $5 disc at WM is the best deal going".

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post #309 of 328 Old 05-25-2008, 06:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angelo913 View Post

Going off topic...
I have to agree, I have lived and learned. But I have some valid points to my decision making with HD DVD. Back in the summer of 2005 my 56" RPCRT 480i TV packed it in. I was looking for a replacement at the time without breaking the bank, I bought a 65" 1080i RPCRT HDTV. My 1999 DVD player only supported 480i via component. Therefore in the fall of 2005 I was searching for a up-converting DVD player and I was starting to read about Blu-Ray & HD DVD. Blu-Ray had the better specs like today but on release day Spring 2006 HD DVD had the least problems and completed specs, top it off it is a superb up-converting player which was my main reason to replace my aging DVD player. HD DVD gave a taste of HDM that got me hooked on the media.

Here we are 2 years later and BD still has profile changes and BDM lacking in features and 50GB media still showing no advantage to HDM. HD is gone but I still consider it a better format. I have no regrets with HDM I have a lot of great flicks with a HD player that does excellent DVD up-converting. I plan to continue with another HD format and if Flash turns out to be better, so be it.

...Angelo


HD is gone? You are aware that over 20 million americans do not know anything about Digital Television at all yet do you? That and over half of america still doesnt have anything HD related, I think its a little early to say HD is gone.

You did notice that HD DVD players have been wiped out too didnt you?

*looks below @ your signature*

HD is hardly gone, its just getting started, It is taking some time but the reason simply being that most who dont have HD either havent heard of it, or see no reason to upgrade their equipment to HD.

HD will last longer than the few years it has I assure you of that.

My Home Theater Thread

The real honest reason I am using my Bose, is because one of the JBL woofers blew out.
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post #310 of 328 Old 05-25-2008, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Jeremy112 View Post

HD is gone? You are aware that over 20 million americans do not know anything about Digital Television at all yet do you? That and over half of america still doesnt have anything HD related, I think its a little early to say HD is gone.

You did notice that HD DVD players have been wiped out too didnt you?

*looks below @ your signature*

HD is hardly gone, its just getting started, It is taking some time but the reason simply being that most who dont have HD either havent heard of it, or see no reason to upgrade their equipment to HD.

HD will last longer than the few years it has I assure you of that.

If you check the context of his message, he meant to say that HD DVD is gone. It was a typo, that's all.
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post #311 of 328 Old 05-28-2008, 03:11 PM
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To all those calling this guy an "idiot" ... that is is both immature and presenting evidence of your own limited cranial capacity

Things change and evolve, as much as many here don't want to hear it. Calling an informed insider an "idiot" doesnt' change realityi.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xalion View Post

In my opinion, 3 things stand in the way of adoption for any new format.

The first is technology.

The second is infrastructure

The third is training.

thing is that bluray faces all three as well. sony can't press the discs that great, noone has bluray players and customers need to be trained/told why paying 10x more for a player and 2x more for said discs is in their best interest


DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #312 of 328 Old 05-29-2008, 01:04 PM
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Just to keep an old thread going and tweak tqlla - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g...AY3QgD90UQ6300.
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post #313 of 328 Old 05-29-2008, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by oztech View Post

At my local best buy the cd isles is still twice the size of the movie isles.

It's about 50/50 here in the Cleveland area stores. It used to be about 80% CD. For me, I don't show there anyways (prices too high) so I wouldn't care if they stopped selling CDs altogether. Stores like BB and CC are only good for clearance sales.

On the OP, I'm surprised so many are quick to call the guy an idiot. I know quite a few people in their 20s who have sold off their entire CD collections and now just keep the content saved on their PCs. The reasons they have (space) are likely to be the same for movies also. I don't want to see an era of downloads - I like physical media - but the masses don't think the same as the 'collector' crowd and many collectors refuse to believe that.

This is the 'generation' of movie media that I'm buying like there's no tomorrow. I just get that gut feeling that it's possibly the last we'll see.
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post #314 of 328 Old 05-30-2008, 02:29 AM
 
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http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/video...thx-index.html

THX have got to be joking about car audio the background noise level is the worst!!!!! Is THX now taking the piss with THX car audio!

What’s next THX bubble bath?
THX toothpaste
THX milk
THX red meat
THX cheap telephone calls
THX energy saving light bulbs

They should stick with cinema and home cinema ONLY!!!!!!
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post #315 of 328 Old 05-30-2008, 05:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Brian81 View Post

It's about 50/50 here in the Cleveland area stores. It used to be about 80% CD. For me, I don't show there anyways (prices too high) so I wouldn't care if they stopped selling CDs altogether. Stores like BB and CC are only good for clearance sales.

On the OP, I'm surprised so many are quick to call the guy an idiot. I know quite a few people in their 20s who have sold off their entire CD collections and now just keep the content saved on their PCs. The reasons they have (space) are likely to be the same for movies also. I don't want to see an era of downloads - I like physical media - but the masses don't think the same as the 'collector' crowd and many collectors refuse to believe that.

This is the 'generation' of movie media that I'm buying like there's no tomorrow. I just get that gut feeling that it's possibly the last we'll see.


I fall into that crowd. I will admit movies were never a big thing. I probably own about 50 DVDs and 30 HD-DVDs. But since I filled out my HD-DVD collection all of my movies are coming off my HDTivo and stored on a server in my laundry room. I have about 50 movies now in a 30 SD and 20 HD split. Though from now on I am strictly recording and saving HD movies.At the rate I am going my collection should double by the end of the year which means of all the movies I own, over 50% of them wont be on a physical media like a DVD or HD-DVD\\Blu-Ray.
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post #316 of 328 Old 05-30-2008, 06:37 AM
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Future formats? Are you guy's kidding? What in the world is the matter with all of you? I bought a BD from Circuit City one day (early adoption) and the cashier scanned the disc at $35. She picked up the phone and called her manager to the cash register. I asked why and she replied: "My register is broken." When the manager arrived, he told her there was nothing wrong. She said there must be, it keeps scanning $35. He told her, "Maybe it's a two disc set or something." I told both of them that it was a high resolution format requiring a special player and a HDTV that accepted a 1080P input. She looked at me and said, "You must be rich or something. I wouldn't pay $35 for a DVD player, let alone a movie." Let us all not forget the age old creed of audio-video: People buy value and not quality. AVS Forum and other forum members, as well as audio-videophiles are a different breed. I know many well-off people who buy their DVD's from bootleggers for five bucks. I actually saw one of these movies and I'm quit sure the movie was shot on a movie camera from inside a movie theater! Joe six-pack doesn't have a clue what CODEC's or scaling means. The industry can sell anything as long as it is cheap. 65% of PS3 owner's do not know the unit plays Blu-ray movies. 75% of PS3 owner's don't have a TV that accepts a 1080P signal. An estimated ten million homes in The U.S. will be without TV next February. 50% of the population can't tell the difference between a HD and a SD program. The brands that we write about are like a foriegn language to the average person. Music server's, streaming, etc. If you gave the layman a A/V dictionary, it would make very little difference. DVD-A and SACD's didn't fly because no one in DoDropIN, USA was willing to spend the money for the disc, let alone the player's. It will not matter how well audio and video evolves, the masses will not buy it unless the movies are under twenty bucks and the players are under a hundred bucks....period! One look at the music industry tells it all.
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post #317 of 328 Old 05-30-2008, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by TRT View Post

Future formats? Are you guy's kidding? What in the world is the matter with all of you? I bought a BD from Circuit City one day (early adoption) and the cashier scanned the disc at $35. She picked up the phone and called her manager to the cash register. I asked why and she replied: "My register is broken." When the manager arrived, he told her there was nothing wrong. She said there must be, it keeps scanning $35. He told her, "Maybe it's a two disc set or something." I told both of them that it was a high resolution format requiring a special player and a HDTV that accepted a 1080P input. She looked at me and said, "You must be rich or something. I wouldn't pay $35 for a DVD player, let alone a movie." Let us all not forget the age old creed of audio-video: People buy value and not quality. AVS Forum and other forum members, as well as audio-videophiles are a different breed. I know many well-off people who buy their DVD's from bootleggers for five bucks. I actually saw one of these movies and I'm quit sure the movie was shot on a movie camera from inside a movie theater! Joe six-pack doesn't have a clue what CODEC's or scaling means. The industry can sell anything as long as it is cheap. 65% of PS3 owner's do not know the unit plays Blu-ray movies. 75% of PS3 owner's don't have a TV that accepts a 1080P signal. An estimated ten million homes in The U.S. will be without TV next February. 50% of the population can't tell the difference between a HD and a SD program. The brands that we write about are like a foriegn language to the average person. Music server's, streaming, etc. If you gave the layman a A/V dictionary, it would make very little difference. DVD-A and SACD's didn't fly because no one in DoDropIN, USA was willing to spend the money for the disc, let alone the player's. It will not matter how well audio and video evolves, the masses will not buy it unless the movies are under twenty bucks and the players are under a hundred bucks....period! One look at the music industry tells it all.

QFT!
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post #318 of 328 Old 06-25-2008, 06:30 AM
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I agree with one of the previous posters regarding the restrictions of DRM on digital media. That is THE major pitfall of digital downloads. When you no longer have complete control over when and where you can watch your media, do you really own it?

I believe that digital downloads will be the future. Maybe not in the near future, but at some point. I simply believe that at the moment people enjoy a physical item in their hands after a purchase. More so than 1's and 0's. It has taken some time for the consumer market to adjust to the idea of mp3's and digital downloads but I see people moving in that direction very soon.

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post #319 of 328 Old 07-01-2008, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by startingline13 View Post

I agree with one of the previous posters regarding the restrictions of DRM on digital media. That is THE major pitfall of digital downloads. When you no longer have complete control over when and where you can watch your media, do you really own it?

I believe that digital downloads will be the future. Maybe not in the near future, but at some point. I simply believe that at the moment people enjoy a physical item in their hands after a purchase. More so than 1's and 0's. It has taken some time for the consumer market to adjust to the idea of mp3's and digital downloads but I see people moving in that direction very soon.

My 2 cents is that when I can have an unlimited selection of downloads and I can pay a flat fee per month for that availability (and I think that is coming sooner rather than later-VuDu, Apple TV, Netflix). I will never again buy a movie as long as it is at least DVD quality or better. Blu-Ray discs (and players) need to come down in price fast to become established-especially the discs. They are not so much better than standard DVD's that are unconverted with the best upconversion to merit the price difference IMHO.

Right now, I can stream 5-6 HD movies from Apple TV for the price of one blu-ray disc. And I am one that has Escients full of 1200 DVDs and 1200 CD's as well as having HD-DVD and PS3 players. I just think the blu-ray discs are FAR too high for what you get (but I have bought some).
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post #320 of 328 Old 07-01-2008, 09:01 AM
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I also have a collection of about 750+ DVDs, but own no Blu-Rays. I've only had my PS3 a few weeks though, but can't see buying any, since I may have watched 20 of my DVDs more than once (and maybe 6 of them more than twice). I don't really have the desire to own a bunch of discs anymore that will sit around collecting dust and taking up space (I don't get any personal satisfaction from looking at that shelf either).

I'm pretty sure, at least for me, that my Netflix account coupled with the Watch Now service (Roku or PS3 or XBOX360 streaming) or maybe AppleTV will be sufficient for my needs.
Now I might consider buying a BR if they'd release a portable player for my car...but even then it would only be "kids" movies, and even then, I'd have to justify the cost of a new player, the more expensive BR disc, and would probably just end up getting the SD anyways.
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post #321 of 328 Old 07-01-2008, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mproper View Post

I also have a collection of about 750+ DVDs, but own no Blu-Rays. I've only had my PS3 a few weeks though, but can't see buying any, since I may have watched 20 of my DVDs more than once (and maybe 6 of them more than twice). I don't really have the desire to own a bunch of discs anymore that will sit around collecting dust and taking up space (I don't get any personal satisfaction from looking at that shelf either).

I'm pretty sure, at least for me, that my Netflix account coupled with the Watch Now service (Roku or PS3 or XBOX360 streaming) or maybe AppleTV will be sufficient for my needs.
Now I might consider buying a BR if they'd release a portable player for my car...but even then it would only be "kids" movies, and even then, I'd have to justify the cost of a new player, the more expensive BR disc, and would probably just end up getting the SD anyways.

I have a huge collection on DVD on my home media server, I can't justify getting rid of that for a format that does not offer the flexibility of DVD.
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post #322 of 328 Old 07-30-2008, 03:51 PM
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Sloburn
awesome post!

Personally, I want nothing to do with drm restricted data that sits on a box or a memory stick that may go bad. I want the physical disk if I'm buying. I don't buy a lot of Blu ray disks, but I Netflix them all the time. The ones I do buy are the ones I think I'll watch 5-10 times in my life. The whole streamed/download thing will be very big eventually, but for purchase? I don't buy that. People are already into the disk thing now, and are not going to get into complicated drm encrusted data scenarios. The whole thing hinges on Blu ray home and car players becoming a low priced commodity. Sony needs to hurry up and make that happen.
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post #323 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 01:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsteves View Post

Sloburn
awesome post!

Personally, I want nothing to do with drm restricted data that sits on a box or a memory stick that may go bad. I want the physical disk if I'm buying. I don't buy a lot of Blu ray disks, but I Netflix them all the time. The ones I do buy are the ones I think I'll watch 5-10 times in my life. The whole streamed/download thing will be very big eventually, but for purchase? I don't buy that. People are already into the disk thing now, and are not going to get into complicated drm encrusted data scenarios. The whole thing hinges on Blu ray home and car players becoming a low priced commodity. Sony needs to hurry up and make that happen.

As it stands.

1. Blu Ray has very strong (restricted) copy protection as well. You can't copy a Blu Ray movie into any other device.

2. Optical disks can get damaged just like any other storage device.

3. You have far more flexibility with a digital copy than with a Blu Ray disk.

As a Optical disk format, Blu Ray has the MOST restrictive copy protection of any media available and is currently the least portable of any media as well!
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post #324 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by av.pallino View Post

As it stands.

1. Blu Ray has very strong (restricted) copy protection as well. You can't copy a Blu Ray movie into any other device.

2. Optical disks can get damaged just like any other storage device.

3. You have far more flexibility with a digital copy than with a Blu Ray disk.

As a Optical disk format, Blu Ray has the MOST restrictive copy protection of any media available and is currently the least portable of any media as well!

Well 1 is not true. You most certainly can copy for backup purposes Blu-Ray and a HD-DVDs ( I don't think we can discuss this topic on AVS )

2 is true

3 is a non-issue since you can copy BD.

Sailn...
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post #325 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 02:31 PM
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av.pallino
Quote:


As a Optical disk format, Blu Ray has the MOST restrictive copy protection of any media available and is currently the least portable of any media as well!

That's not really my point, though.
Joe Blow is not going to deal with the technicalities of portable data media. The average person is just not interested in any learning curve with their media. They have disks, they like disks, they are not going to buy en mass large quantities of invisible data that will have basically the same restrictions (you know it will!) as Blu Ray.
When it gets to the point when you can pay for a monthly service to watch anything you want, when you want with high quality, then the disk will no longer be as important.
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post #326 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 03:29 PM
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How long did it take Netflix to move 100K Rokus?

On demand services like this, with the option to purchase the d/l will clearly be the format of the future. My bet is five years max for the Blu-Ray to be obsolete, which is about how long cassettes were the dominant music format and how does history view them?
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post #327 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 04:43 PM
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I love my Roku Netflix box, but it's not where I'd want to store any purchases! Will there be a way to back up or redownload purchases to a new box if my current box dies? How about adding disk space? Will it be with proprietary drm controlled drives? You bet it will.. With the current obsession with drm by hollywood et al, is there really hope for these issues to be resolved in 5 years with all of the competing players?

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With all due respect, cassettes is not the best comparison - they were recordable portable media with no drm. The music business just HAD to kill them off. Very similar in fact to flash media.

But even if blu ray does become the main disk format dvd players and disks will be around for many many years, as would blu ray when it's replaced in I'd guess 7-10 years.... (if it does become "the" player)

DRM is the big ugly invisible gorilla in the room. I doubt hollywood will have its back broken as fast as the record labels.

Hey I'm not saying I don't want a GB Internet connection and to watch any TV or movies I want, when I want, I just think we'll be waiting a long time for that nirvana.
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post #328 of 328 Old 08-01-2008, 04:58 PM
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Heh I guess the stupidity of Hollywood is the variable I didn't consider.

Hopefully they will sort out compatability and storage issues because I have a hard time believing that mainstream users will shell out the cash that they are asking for BDs.

Either the prices need to come down, which means they lose margin, or they deliver a product with pratically no production costs for cheaper and give users a reasonable amount of freedom with the files to make them more attractive. Seems like a no brainer to me.
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