THX Chief Scientist: ...it's too late for Blu-ray - Page 2 - AVS Forum
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post #31 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:28 AM
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haha. Nothing like a doom and gloom thread to draw out the bitter HD DVD supporters / BD haters.

Apparently, in this idiots future science won't matter...

edit:
Apparently science doesn't matter in this person's present...

http://www.monsterthx.com/thx/
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post #32 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:28 AM
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He states that the studio's will not support blu-ray , hmmmmm
Hello , thought that was how blu-ray won , not long ago...when there were two formats ....and studio support for each (more or less)
better stick with their lab coat and test tubes ...LOL
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Not an idiot , but close ??
I mean myself !!

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post #33 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTYoung View Post

That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.

At my local best buy the cd isles is still twice the size of the movie isles.
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post #34 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Random Digital View Post

THX certified flash cards.


I look forward to the day when I have a large shelving unit filled with 128GB flash drives. So let's say 2045 or something like that.

I'll be too old to ride a hover board , DANG !!

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post #35 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by thebland View Post

He lives in the future...

Another dimension , or dementia

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post #36 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:36 AM
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Movies take up shelf space because they want them to, not because they have to. The packaging is a big deal. If this were not the case, they would simply keep the discs in envelopes. Even in game-stores, they put EMPTY BOXES on the shelf and keep the games behind the desk. Why would they put empty boxes out there if retailers didn't like to waste the shelf space? It's because having the pretty box sitting there in plain sight helps to sell the product. Retailers don't want to get rid of shelf space, because as soon as shelf space doesn't matter, they go out of business, because that's the value-add they bring to the equation.
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post #37 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Bloggs View Post

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

So currently you wouldn't be able to get more than one movie on a disc at the same quality as a Blu-ray 50GB one, and it'll be a while before 50GB flash memory sticks become available (and that'll only hold 1 movie at 50GB Blu-ray equivalent) - and by that time there might be 100GB or 200GB Blu-ray discs available)?

200GB Flash cards will be readily available whereas 200GB Blu-ray discs may never see the light of day outside of laboratory settings. You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

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post #38 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by underdog57 View Post

I'll be too old to ride a hover board , DANG !!

I thought we'd be getting those in good old 2015, along with flying cars
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post #39 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xradman View Post

200GB Flash cards will be readily available whereas 200GB Blu-ray discs may never see the light of day outside of laboratory settings. You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

That's quite the crystal ball you've got...
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post #40 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BagMan View Post

Movies take up shelf space because they want them to, not because they have to. The packaging is a big deal. If this were not the case, they would simply keep the discs in envelopes. Even in game-stores, they put EMPTY BOXES on the shelf and keep the games behind the desk. Why would they put empty boxes out there if retailers didn't like to waste the shelf space? It's because having the pretty box sitting there in plain sight helps to sell the product. Retailers don't want to get rid of shelf space, because as soon as shelf space doesn't matter, they go out of business, because that's the value-add they bring to the equation.

Also , to help prevent theft . cd's in that long card board box ....
harder to walk out with , not from personal experiance , honest !

keep at it , results are worth it !!
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post #41 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eganov View Post

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.

Good enough for whom?
Certainly not BD and HD-DVD supporters that want the best possible movie PQ/AQ (BD fans) and all the extras (HD-DVD fans). I want movies in my hands, not available at some point in the future over some download service or video gas station. Give me 50GB ROM SD sticks and you have a deal.

I want my HDM
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post #42 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:44 AM
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Don't forget Divix , they actually were going to make us pay to rewatch a movie ...we paid for.
good for consumer ?? not really
I'm interested if you buy once and own the thang ....

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post #43 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lgans316 View Post

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

Does this guy actually believe that you would walk into a store and do this? This would all be done from you computer over the net. For that reason, stores will HATE that idea. This guys goes from being futuristic to talking about going to a store and someone copying a movie kind of like getting pictures developed in 1990. lol

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post #44 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

True but saying that it will have a six or seven year lifespan is different than it's too late for it.

Art

I think he is saying that with so short a prospective lifespan and the time it will normally takes for a format to be mass adopted that it may in fact be too late. That and the fact that is is possible that technology in general may be moving away from physical media. It is certainly not too late for those of us on AVS though and I think we can all agree on that. However, we are NOT the mass market.
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post #45 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:47 AM
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Finally a forward thinking scientist. Optical discs are so 90's ...

I worked on memory stick movie transports about 2 years ago. Allot of stuff I work on is 3-5 years out. Flash movie distribution is coming people, maybe by 2009 even.
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post #46 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angelo913 View Post

Going off topic...
I have to agree, I have lived and learned. But I have some valid points to my decision making with HD DVD. Back in the summer of 2005 my 56" RPCRT 480i TV packed it in. I was looking for a replacement at the time without breaking the bank, I bought a 65" 1080i RPCRT HDTV. My 1999 DVD player only supported 480i via component. Therefore in the fall of 2005 I was searching for a up-converting DVD player and I was starting to read about Blu-Ray & HD DVD. Blu-Ray had the better specs like today but on release day Spring 2006 HD DVD had the least problems and completed specs, top it off it is a superb up-converting player which was my main reason to replace my aging DVD player. HD DVD gave a taste of HDM that got me hooked on the media.

Here we are 2 years later and BD still has profile changes and BDM lacking in features and 50GB media still showing no advantage to HDM. HD is gone but I still consider it a better format. I have no regrets with HDM I have a lot of great flicks with a HD player that does excellent DVD up-converting. I plan to continue with another HD format and if Flash turns out to be better, so be it.

...Angelo

It's very likely that BD will be the last "spinning disk" format, but I personally could not wait 5 - 10 years to get back in to HDM in a solid state form. I plan on enjoying many new BD movies between now and then. When solid state movies become the norm (not downloads, but SD - ROM sticks), I'll likely be an early adopter again.

I want my HDM
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post #47 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:53 AM
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When is VR coming ??

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post #48 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:54 AM
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Did I miss something. When is Star Wars coming out on Flash drives?

Since Flash memory can have higher bandwidth/bit-rate, I am waiting for the USB/Flash format that supports 10 bit color and 3D. As the guy said, you can carry them in your wallet and there's no moving parts! Spinning discs are like soooo last century.
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post #49 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HDTV-NUT View Post

Does this guy actually believe that you would walk into a store and do this? This would all be done from you computer over the net. For that reason, stores will HATE that idea. This guys goes from being futuristic to talking about going to a store and someone copying a movie kind of like getting pictures developed in 1990. lol

Hey I still develop pictures, haha! Does that mean I'm old fashioned. That's not possible I'm only 20!
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post #50 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

Appropriate analogy? People are downloading songs, not albums. I doubt there's much of a market for 4 minute movie scene downloads...

I download whole albums.
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post #51 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

I think he is saying that with so short a prospective lifespan and the time it will normally takes for a format to be mass adopted that it may in fact be too late. That and the fact that is is possible that technology in general may be moving away from physical media. It is certainly not too late for those of us on AVS though and I think we can all agree on that. However, we are NOT the mass market.

Perhaps because of my age and the fact that I spent most of my adult life putting things off,I think that the dismissal of BD isn't a good thing. I don't want to wait another five years to get films in HD(flash memory) so I want to support BD now during this lifetime.

I don't doubt he is right but I think five to seven year increments of life are worth enjoying for today.

Art


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post #52 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

Perhaps because of my age and the fact that I spent most of my adult life putting things off,I think that the dismissal of BD isn't a good thing. I don't want to wait another five years to get films in HD(flash memory) so I want to support BD now during this lifetime.

I don't doubt he is right but I think five to seven year increments of life are worth enjoying for today.

Art

Agree with that ...
Also hd-dvd and blu-ray put up a big fuss for something ....
Why would they even get envolved if there was not potential cash to be made...
Plus the life spans of tech always have a limit ...why sell once when you can milk it several times ...
Bob

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post #53 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by underdog57 View Post

Agree with that ...
Also hd-dvd and blu-ray put up a big fuss for something ....
Why would they even get envolved if there was not potential cash to be made...
Plus the life spans of tech always have a limit ...why sell once when you can milk it several times ...
Bob


Reminds me of Intel. incremental speed bumps over many years, to hold sales high.
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post #54 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:08 AM
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Several people that disagreed with blu-ray are adopting blu-ray ...
Hater ?? no one in here but us chickens ....
Still looking for a player , ahem ....
Bob

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post #55 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:08 AM
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I think Flash Memory HD movies will be a hard sell to the casual consumer, unless it's packaged like a UMD with the Flash USB memory stick held in the middle. So that stores can sell it like packaged media.



I like the idea. I think what it ensures is a non-finite storage space. Flash Memory sticks will go up in capacity. And they really costs almost nothing. Even a $20 8gb stick, they're making a killing on. They've already got a 16gb stick for $30 that they can put 720p movies if they wanted to.

Note: I'm a blu-ray fan. The Toshiba stick is pure coincidence.

I think something like this would definately put a dent on Blu-ray if they were to exceed the capacity of Blu-ray within a year. However, I don't see how they can make it read only. Studios would not be so willing to abandon the disc format and the DRM capabilities of Blu-ray. Millions were spent to ensure that.

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post #56 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:11 AM
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I don't believe a semiconductor based movie delivery mechanism can ever be cost competitive with optical media. What does a DVD cost to press today? $0.10? Blu-Ray I've heard is about $0.50. That is a long way from $30.

In any case flash or optical disk who cares? It is the file format that counts, and Blu-Ray files will be what is on the flash drive so that it will play on existing players.

Of course there is a little matter of copy protection to solve, which means you may need some added hardware on that flash drive. It could be a lot longer than 5 years to be a major distribution channel because of costs associated with that idea.

As far as downloads go, I don't think so. It works for overcompressed three minute throwaway pop music singles, but album sales by download haven't taken off; they are minuscule compared to CD sales. An HD movie is bigger yet - ten thousand times larger than a mp3 single.

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post #57 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

I personally couldn't imagine why I would want to carry movies around in my wallet. I don't have room for the crap in there right now. Beside why don't we all wait until they have telepathy figured out then we don't needd to carry any thing and the screen can be as big as you can imagine.



Not before flying cars my friend. So lets keep it in perspective


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post #58 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by txfilmguy View Post

I download whole albums.

You and a couple of other people on the planet do that.
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post #59 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:13 AM
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Ld's had bigger pictures on them , Would just hate to see how small the pictures will get in the future ...or no pictures at all ...
K , I gotta stop . This is getting silly ...
Remember buying a few alblums , because of the cover though ..

Suprised this thread has not been locked yet ...

keep at it , results are worth it !!
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post #60 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 10:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Bloggs View Post

It'll be a while before there are USB memory sticks that are big enough and cheap enough to be used for selling high def media on (eg. 8GB USB memory sticks are £19 in the UK and that's without any content on).

Yes, you are right. At this moment in time the 32GB Flash chips are expensive. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for them to get down to < $20 or so. Then the consumer will have a choice of whether to use them for archiving movies instead of reusing for a different movie.

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Also, wouldn't they need some setting on it to make it read-only? What about power surges - couldn't they be wiped by mistake by a power surge?

SD card already have a tiny write-protect switch on them. many USB Flash thumb drives have also had such a switch.

Besides flash rom is not normally susceptible to accident erasure by a power surge. You have to write a particular pattern in the right sequence and addresses to unlock a flash rom in order to enable deletes and writes. Been using them (writing code to program them -- them being electrically erasable non-volatile memory) since 1989. Their usage in critical applications is well understood.
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