THX Chief Scientist: ...it's too late for Blu-ray - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by iceperson View Post

never underestimate the extent that BD haters will go to attempt to support their doom and gloom for BD.

Is the THX Chief Scientist a "BD hater"?
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post #92 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by eci View Post

Pay attention to history. Go checkout size/price of flash based storage in 2002, 2005, and now 2008.

i have. there's no way we're getting over 100gb of flash storage for less than $30 in three years.
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post #93 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by elvisizer View Post

i have. there's no way we're getting over 100gb of flash storage for less than $30 in three years.

Actually there are plenty of ways.
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post #94 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by eci View Post

Is the THX Chief Scientist a "BD hater"?

can't tell. considering he spends most his time stamping monster cables though I doubt he's qualified to make any judgments on anything...
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post #95 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:30 AM
 
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Originally Posted by luclin999 View Post

Apple/I-tunes.

Really, any USB device?

Any benefit to doing that over just downloading at home? Will I get a higher quality download?

Well they do have over 200 locations Worlwide. I'm in the minority and live by quite a few of them so it wouldn't be much of a hassle for me on the way home from work if there was an actual benefit.

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post #96 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

That is an excellent point. 8mb flash drives cost about $2 to manufacture, if I recall correctly. However, imagine a 48gb flash drive cost in 2009 or 2010. Likely won't be cheaper than a Blu-ray disc production. Also, can flash drives be produced in mass numbers like optical discs? For a big movie release, they'd need a million drives at a minimum.

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.
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post #97 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:34 AM
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moved to appropriate forum

Please take the high road in every post
Please do not quote or respond to problematic posts: report them to mods to handle
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post #98 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:48 AM
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The key words here are "too late". It's not a comment on the quality of bluray, but on the leisurely pace of it's adoption. The historical comparison to the pace of DVD early adoption is odious. DVD offered the consumer two things, quality and convenience, bluray one, quality.

If flash can offer quality and convenience in three or four years, that doesn't seem like much of a window for Bluray.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #99 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by eci View Post

Actually there are plenty of ways.

such as?
come on, this back and forth is lame.
if you've got some evidence that flash prices are going to fall through the floor like you're predicting, please share it with us.
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post #100 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 11:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.

that is the way it would have to be, or just download from an official internet store, but that requires either severely compressed files that won't look nearly as good as blu ray, or everyone getting FIOS. . . . which will happen only in my dreams . . .
i still don't think flash prices will fall fast enough to make it attractive enough to impact the short term viability of blu ray. in 5 or 6 years, sure. but not in the timeframe Mr. THX is talking about.
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post #101 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen.

hmm, a that's an awfully fast hypothetical flash card you're talking about there. Or, are you assuming the files will be smaller than what we generally get on a Bluray?
I mean, 50GB over USB2 does not equal 20 seconds for the download.
anybody got a 50gb flash drive to do a real world test?
anyone?
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post #102 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.

I was throwing out a possible scenario.

And I'm guessing the B&M stores like Best Buy and Walmart are going to be supporting this move in a few years? It's people LIKE YOU who don't seem to get it.

Selling movies is not just for profit to stores! What movie releases do is bring back returning customers to the store every week. Someone coming in to buy a new release movie might buy a vaccum cleaner, or a microwave, or that new tv that's for sale. That's where a lot of the profits come into play.

No animals were harmed in the creation of this sentence.
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post #103 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Maltby View Post

If flash can offer quality and convenience in three or four years, that doesn't seem like much of a window for Bluray.

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.
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post #104 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:33 PM
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Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.


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post #105 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talons55 View Post

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.

What if you are already at a store anyway, say a Starbucks or a Safeway? You remember that a coworker had raved about some movie called The Umbrellas of Cherbourg. You take your Flash card off your keychain and download the movie onto it.

Did this thread really need to be banished?

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #106 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:41 PM
 
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Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.


Hah
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post #107 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:45 PM
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There is a simple reason the movie industry won't move to flash/hard drive based technologies anytime soon: They won't let it!

The reason optical technologies are desireable, you can't modify the data on the disc. Copy protection can't be cracked on the media itself, only on the player. This gives the movie industry a good amount of control of their intellectual property.

A rewritable format like flash or hard drive is screaming 'crack me', that's why we will never see it as a mainstream format for media sales. This is the last bit of control the media industry has.


Regardless, this is the way consumers are moving. Hard drive based DVRs were pretty popular last I checked. Same with flash based media players. Flash cards, flash drives, and portable hard drives are used every day for moving media from one device to another. We will have to be content with downloaded and DVR'd HD content for use in this manner for now...
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post #108 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.


Hahaha

I'm in agreement with the sticker posts. lol

What has THX done for you lately?

I was bored one day and a calibrated my 7 years old's 10 year old TV with one of my Star Wars discs, aside from that, why does THX still exists? Who's paying to keep the lights on? Oh yeah, the people who buy the stickers.

Only watches movies on celluloid in the DOP's personal home theater.
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post #109 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:51 PM
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The FYE store in my local mall also sells MP3s via download @ a kiosk. Plug in your iPod or other MP3 storage device & pay at register. All while still selling CDs, DVDS, BDs and whatnot.

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post #110 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Talons55 View Post

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.

Exactly. No way I am going to a store to get a movie. The last time I did that was at least 5 years ago. Now it is either buying the movie online from Amazon or renting it via Netflix. Driving to anyplace to plug a flash drive in to a kiosk is an absolute non-starter for me. That kiosk had better be no further than my mailbox.

"Nature Abhors a Vacuum Tube" -  J. R. Pierce
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post #111 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:01 PM
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You need a big fat pipe to make this kind of memory downloading convenient, so a store like a Walmart could afford to have such a big pipe into each store that can load doznes of flash cards with movies in a few seconds while a shopper is already in a store.

Just another blank signature.
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post #112 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:22 PM
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You need a big fat pipe

I already have one of those.

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post #113 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ehlarson View Post

Exactly. No way I am going to a store to get a movie. The last time I did that was at least 5 years ago. Now it is either buying the movie online from Amazon or renting it via Netflix. Driving to anyplace to plug a flash drive in to a kiosk is an absolute non-starter for me. That kiosk had better be no further than my mailbox.

especially after gas gets up to oh, $5/gallon!
not much farther to go.
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post #114 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:28 PM
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Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.
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post #115 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.


I'm certainly not arguing against downloads if the quality is BD/HDDVD level.I do think that there will a void for all of us if BD doesn't take off to some degree in the mean time.

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post #116 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:51 PM
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Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.

Yeah, in the 60s I am sure that a lot of people were talking about time travel, phasers, human teleportation and flying cars.

The idea of Kiosks in stores to download movies is just stupid, then you have to go home to offload it to your media server so you can go to the store and download more movies. Its not convinient at all.
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post #117 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Bloggs View Post

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

Actually, Amazon.com has a good amount of 32GB usb thumb drives and even one 64GB (the reviews are hilarious).
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post #118 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Do any retail stores do this with music? Legally of course.

It's not flash, and it's not music, but...

The DVD Forum has spent a lot of blood, sweat and tears trying to get "DVD Download Disc" off the ground...and a key part of this effort is Manufacturing on Demand (MOD), which supports kiosk-based DVD burning (MOD-2) on the fly for high-value content (i.e., CSS protected movies). The technical/licensing challenges are nearing completion, but it remains to be seen if retailers and the studios will embrace this concept.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
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post #119 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 02:04 PM
 
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Very interesting Amillians. I had not read about MOD anywhere before. Thank you.
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post #120 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 02:10 PM
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so the HD DVD faithful will wait a few years for this emerging technology to be embraced...but by then some new technology will be available that will be even better than flash drive media...some (many) will be snake bitten by their HD DVD experience and wait further...

since the HD DVD fan boys are used to waiting (wait for the 4th quarter sales, wait for Transformers, wait for Shrek 3, wait for Bourne 3, wait for Christmas when the owners will start buying movies for their $99 Walmart players, wait for the superbowl commercial), they can keep waiting while I enjoy my HD movies in blu ray today...
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