THX Chief Scientist: ...it's too late for Blu-ray - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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post #181 of 328 Old 03-31-2008, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by John Kotches View Post

Margin on what? Flash memory? There has to be sufficient margin for big hitters like Intel to be getting into the game, even with lowering costs / GB.

Keep in mind that using the more advanced build lines (think 62nm or 45nm) and you start talking about dramatically increasing yield/wafer which lowers cost (and several other factors that aren't germane to this discussion).

Now, is it going to happen? I don't know -- but I don't see it as impossible as others do.

The cost of the stick compared to cost of discs on existing lines (by 2010 there will many more I assume). My point is ,will there be a financial incentive to move in that direction or not if there is a confluence of technological advances making flash memory HD movies possible.

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post #182 of 328 Old 03-31-2008, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Maltby View Post

NYT tech guy...it's too late for Flash memory chips.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/0...t-doesnt-work/

His not very convincing take, by the time flash could be a player, downloading will have worked out the kinks.

His reasoning-each movie on its own flash chip would be more expensive than buying it on an optical disk. Kiosks? People like a box, it could "easily take an hour" to download.

In the US where VDSL and other very high speed technologies are not the norm, I have sincere doubts that downloading will be viable in the next 5-10 years.

Abroad, where higher speed connections (think 10-20 Mbits/second sustained) it becomes a more tenable solution. At 20 Mbits/second it would take you about 5.5 hours to download the equivalent of a full Blu-ray disc. Until the US gets some infrastructure upgrades it's not viable.

I'm not "antidownload" -- but without some major bandwidth increases it isn't happening.

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post #183 of 328 Old 03-31-2008, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

The cost of the stick compared to cost of discs on existing lines (by 2010 there will many more I assume). My point is ,will there be a financial incentive to move in that direction or not if there is a confluence of technological advances making flash memory HD movies possible.

Art

You mean like players with no moving parts and no laser diode to fail, lower heat, etc?

How about greater reliability so that the defective rate of players is an order of magnitude (or higher) improved.

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

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post #184 of 328 Old 04-01-2008, 05:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kotches View Post

You mean like players with no moving parts and no laser diode to fail, lower heat, etc?

How about greater reliability so that the defective rate of players is an order of magnitude (or higher) improved.

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

Cheers,

Funny. I have a DVD player that's 5 years old and CD player that's 15 years old. I also have had numerous CD/DVD players in many computer over the last 15 years. Not once have I ever had a 'laser diode failure' in ANY of those devices. Yet, I've had a couple of memory sticks simply quit working in just the last year or so. There is no real advantage over memory sticks vs. BD that I can see. So I don't see it happening. At least not any time soon. The fact of the matter is; If you wan't high quality, HD movies that you can purchase and keep on a shelf in your home, BD is the way to go. For the present, and forseeable future.

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post #185 of 328 Old 04-01-2008, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kotches View Post

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

Cheers,

This is where posters could be more clear, are they talking about sticks as permanent media or as rentals.

The sticks as permanent media proposition is different (and less likely to succeed) than sticks as rentals.

If you are talking about the price of the media itself, costs of pressing bluray versus cost to make and load stick, then you are talking about sticks as permanent media.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #186 of 328 Old 04-01-2008, 11:16 AM
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[quote=Rutgar;13526834]There is no real advantage over memory sticks vs. BD that I can see. So I don't see it happening. At least not any time soon. The fact of the matter is; If you wan't high quality, HD movies that you can purchase and keep on a shelf in your home, BD is the way to go. [quote]

The real advantage is for rentals. Why do people think you will have to go to a store, see what they have, and then wait for it to be downloaded. I will be at work and go to a website where I will browse until I find something I want to see. I will have had an amazing number of movies to select from. I will then order it. At lunch I will walk across the street to the kiosk and pick up my movie.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #187 of 328 Old 04-01-2008, 11:16 AM
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hahaha rugat: what an idiot.

he has a point though. I wouldn't want to be carrying 1 blue ray movie on my flash drive compared to 4-5! the quality of dvd is something i'm already content with. i don't see the need to be raising the bar. it's like getting a newer car when yours works perfectly. i guess it comes down to luxury vs. satisfaction.


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post #188 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 07:47 AM
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Studios wont want this at all.
1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores.

2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?

3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it.

4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?

I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX" They really dropped the ball. With newer Lossless audio formats such as TrueHD and DTS-MA... who needs THX post-processing? THX needed to come up with their own lossless audio format early to keep the THX moniker relavent.
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post #189 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

Studios wont want this at all.
1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores.

2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?

3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it.

4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?

I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX" They really dropped the ball. With newer Lossless audio formats such as TrueHD and DTS-MA... who needs THX post-processing? THX needed to come up with their own lossless audio format early to keep the THX moniker relavent.

1) This wont stop people from collecting movies. Any movie they buy they will simply upload to thier home server/mass storage device.

2&3&4) Hassle? What hassle? The flash drive will be on your key ring and if you seen most peoples keyring having 2 or 3 on it would'nt be a big deal. As for going to the store just for the movie. Well, since the kiosk will likely be in supermarkets and/or malls folks will just hit them while the're out doing something else. Also, since the service would most likely be availible online as well there is no need to worry about broken kiosk or aisles of kiosk. Anyway, getting the film would be alot easier through DDL then it would be driving down to the local video store and standing in line or waiting for your rental to arrive in the mail when LoTR IV comes out.
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post #190 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesDax View Post

1) This wont stop people from collecting movies. Any movie they buy they will simply upload to thier home server/mass storage device.

2&3&4) Hassle? What hassle? The flash drive will be on your key ring and if you seen most peoples keyring having 2 or 3 on it would'nt be a big deal. As for going to the store just for the movie. Well, since the kiosk will likely be in supermarkets and/or malls folks will just hit them while the're out doing something else. Also, since the service would most likely be availible online as well there is no need to worry about broken kiosk or aisles of kiosk. Anyway, getting the film would be alot easier through DDL then it would be driving down to the local video store and standing in line or waiting for your rental to arrive in the mail when LoTR IV comes out.

1) If the service is available online... then why do people need the store? Or the kiosk?

Retailers dont want this.

2) not everyone wants a bunch of items hanging off their keyring. Nor do people want to wait in line to download a movie. Then have to upload when they get home. And then there is the question of how to get it to other TVs? Media server? Is that something everyone would be comfortable setting up. Or do people have to download to flash and then reupload in their rooms.

Its not exactly Easy. Its.... a hassle compared to walking into a store and picking up a disc off the shelf. And if you want to watch in a different room, pick up the disc and walk to the other room.
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post #191 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

Studios wont want this at all..

Studios didn't want VHS, yet we got VHS. Studios didn't want DVD yet we got DVD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.

People collect movies because they intend to watch them many times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores. .

As more of these people become downloaders, stores will want them.

Additionally, a "store" could just be a kiosk at Starbucks or a tiny storefront next to the Taco del Mar in your office building.


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2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?.

Once again with the "stores". I won't have to drive to Blockbuster to get a movie downloaded (although I will be able to soon enough). Multiple disks, oh no thats 5 or ten bucks!


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3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it. .

This is your weakest point.


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Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?.

You could order ahead of time, the Hobbit will be waiting for you.


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I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX"

Yes, that would really put the hurt on him...

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #192 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maltby View Post

Studios didn't want VHS, yet we got VHS. Studios didn't want DVD yet we got DVD.

People collect movies because they intend to watch them many times.

As more of these people become downloaders, stores will want them.

Additionally, a "store" could just be a kiosk at Starbucks or a tiny storefront next to the Taco del Mar in your office building.


Once again with the "stores". I won't have to drive to Blockbuster to get a movie downloaded (although I will be able to soon enough). Multiple disks, oh no thats 5 or ten bucks!


This is your weakest point.


You could order ahead of time, the Hobbit will be waiting for you.




Yes, that would really put the hurt on him...

1) Ah, but you are wrong. How many people have discs that they have never watched. Or how many people have collections of 500+discs, where they only watch the movie 1 time. A lot of people.

If they dont have a tangleble disc... then why buy, vs renting?

2) Downloading is different than the topic at hand. Which is these flash kiosks.

3) Retailers dont want this because... Hello... as you pointed out, you dont need to go to a store for movies. you can pick up a movie at the kiosk at the corner or download it. Retailers dont want this, they want you in stores looking at other things to buy.

4) how are you going to order aheard of time? You are going to take someone elses used and abused flash card? No thanks. Thats what... renting is for. IE less money for studios, less money for retailers, more hassles for consumers.

Its just not a good idea.
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post #193 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

1) Ah, but you are wrong..

Wouldn't be the first time
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If they dont have a tangleble disc... then why buy, vs renting?.

Why do people buy music without the tangible disks. And aren't these non tangible disk music buying people a good target market for flash movies?

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2) Downloading is different than the topic at hand. Which is these flash kiosks. .

Fear of downloaders stealing business will drive download like offerings.


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3) Retailers dont want this because... Hello... as you pointed out, you dont need to go to a store for movies. you can pick up a movie at the kiosk at the corner or download it. Retailers dont want this, they want you in stores looking at other things to buy. .

Retailers didn't want downloadable music and yet it happened.


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4) how are you going to order aheard of time? You are going to take someone elses used and abused flash card? .

What exactly can you do to a flash card?

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Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

Its just not a good idea.

You don't have to participate if you don't want to.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
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post #194 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

1) If the service is available online... then why do people need the store? Or the kiosk?

Retailers dont want this.

2) not everyone wants a bunch of items hanging off their keyring. Nor do people want to wait in line to download a movie. Then have to upload when they get home. And then there is the question of how to get it to other TVs? Media server? Is that something everyone would be comfortable setting up. Or do people have to download to flash and then reupload in their rooms.

Its not exactly Easy. Its.... a hassle compared to walking into a store and picking up a disc off the shelf. And if you want to watch in a different room, pick up the disc and walk to the other room.

You are just being silly. Some people, like you, just don't like change. But change will come wether you like it or not. DDL is the future. The near future. Get ready.
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post #195 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:17 PM
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I understand where the THX guy is coming from, as flash memory is getting ultra cheap now (just bought a 16GB SD card from newegg for $80), but I do think he's wrong about blu-ray. I think all it's going to take for blu-ray to take hold is the elusive sub $200 player. I still know lots of people who have nice HDTVs who want blu-ray, but will not spend $300-400 on a player (or $30/disc).

edit:
As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme.

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post #196 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by impala454 View Post

As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme.


But right now I can start a 720p download, go to the fridge, come back to the couch and start watching. For rentals, there'll be no need for discs a lot sooner than most realize. If you're just renting, why would the studios want to manufacture and distribute discs? Take away a significant portion of the rental market, and there's less need for physical media than there was before.
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post #197 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:44 PM
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I understand where the THX guy is coming from, as flash memory is getting ultra cheap now (just bought a 16GB SD card from newegg for $80), but I do think he's wrong about blu-ray.

If you had spent that $80 on blank DVDs you would have at least a few terrabytes of storage space.

It isn't the size of the disk that counts, but how you use it.

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post #198 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:44 PM
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I download whole albums.

Now Now, we aren't including piracy as a legitimate future way of obtaining media j/k not accusing you of anything.

Which personally I believe that flash cards will contribute to making piracy easier.

Downloading iTunes or most of those services, is not what Blu or HD is about, they are far from lossless. So they will never disapper and might be popular for the 480P user, but my opinion is that HD will get larger i.e. 1440 and 3D, media will tend to advance. Downloading 50gigs doesn appeal to my current supplier Rogers with a 25gig cap/month i think, then charging after that to a max of $25 extra.

Devils advocate to that is...I wouldnt go to a store to load the flash drive, when I could pay online then download it, it seems like it would be a killer to rental places.

(I see a studio selling a movie on a flash media, one per city, then the buyer copies it for the rest of the neighborhood, encryption or not won't matter)

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post #199 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 12:50 PM
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Quoter"edit:
As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme."


I agree.

Note the comment up a few about the 720P download....While I agree sort of, that is not the target for Blu (or HD) it is 1080P. That is what the Blu buyer has bought it for. 720 is third place in a race. Good for some but not for most, else why would we all be buying/spending more, on 1080P sets, if we were not going to use them.

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post #200 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 01:02 PM
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Just to add a little specificity to the discussion that flash movies are not conceptual - http://www.portomedia.com/.
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post #201 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maltby View Post

Wouldn't be the first time

Why do people buy music without the tangible disks. And aren't these non tangible disk music buying people a good target market for flash movies?

Fear of downloaders stealing business will drive download like offerings.


Retailers didn't want downloadable music and yet it happened.


What exactly can you do to a flash card?


You don't have to participate if you don't want to.

2) As I said... people listen to music over and over. Usually, they dont buy just to listen once and keep. Many people collect movies. And buy, even though they may watch once or twice.

3) Retailers didnt want Download music, Studios didnt want it, Many Artists dont want it. It happened because piracy ran rampant. These days, its so easy to catch people.

4) Uh, you can scratch it up, or crush it, while its hanging off your keychain. You can drop it in the rain, trying to open your car door. There are a lot of unsanitary people out there.

5) These download Kiosks.. you cannot participate in anyway. Its a stupid idea that wont go anywhere. I can understand downloads taking off in the future... but kiosks.... come on. Thats just stupid
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post #202 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

2) 5) These download Kiosks.. you cannot participate in anyway. Its a stupid idea that wont go anywhere. I can understand downloads taking off in the future... but kiosks.... come on. Thats just stupid

What I don't get is how you can dismiss this idea as "stupid" when there are obviously some very smart people willing to invest in the idea. Besides just throwing out criticisms could you offer an argument for this being "stupid" and what your qualifications are to make such a claim?
And "unsanitary people"????
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post #203 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by lgans316 View Post

Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

After HD DVDs demise the UK Magazine asked him for a comment. "Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

Hopefully Lucas Film don't listen too much to their THX department or we might never see Star Wars on a HD disc format like Blu-ray.

Source: Home Cinema Choice Magazine (May 2008)

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chie...r-blu-ray/5379

That's a matter of opinion and some opinions don't matter.

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post #204 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 02:25 PM
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What I don't get is how you can dismiss this idea as "stupid" when there are obviously some very smart people willing to invest in the idea. Besides just throwing out criticisms could you offer an argument for this being "stupid" and what your qualifications are to make such a claim?
And "unsanitary people"????

Having this thing called "Common sense" tells me this idea is stupid.

1) Who are these people investing in flash media download kiosks? Its not even as convinient as buying a Disc or downloading. Whats the point?

2) In your lifetime... you have you never seen a product and thought "What a stupid idea". Have you ever seen a movie trailer and thought "Who produced the funding for that". Or do you automatically assume that every idea produced is good because someone produced the funding for it?

3) Who wants to trade in something they bought new... for a used one. Who knows what the previous owner did with it. They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop. Is that what you want? Pay for a new product... only to trade it in a week later for one that has someone elses germs all over it?
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post #205 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

Finally a forward thinking scientist. Optical discs are so 90's ...

I worked on memory stick movie transports about 2 years ago. Allot of stuff I work on is 3-5 years out. Flash movie distribution is coming people, maybe by 2009 even.

Let's just hope the #$%*# DRM restrictions won't come with it, and that I can watch it after 24 hours has passed, and that's it's not Monday afternoon at 3:00pm, and that there's not a full moon that night, and that my portable device doesn't have to be tethered to my PC, and that.... you get the point. I'll take my optical disc for the time-being, thank you very much.

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post #206 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 03:50 PM
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Note the comment up a few about the 720P download....While I agree sort of, that is not the target for Blu (or HD) it is 1080P. That is what the Blu buyer has bought it for. 720 is third place in a race. Good for some but not for most, else why would we all be buying/spending more, on 1080P sets, if we were not going to use them.

720p downloads are here now. That does not mean anything for the future as compression codecs improve and bandwidth increases. I'll be surprised if 1080p and DD+ don't exist for downloads in the relatively near future.

The point I was trying to make was really about rental delivery. There is great incentive to have downloads work and be profitable for rentals. With no disc to produce and distribute, the margins will increase and inventory control will not be an issue.

As for the poster who said Blu-ray is about lossless, it really isn't. For audio, yes, but obviously, the video is nowhere near lossless. It's all about degrees of compression. Right now Blu-ray has the advantage, but digital storage and services have much more opportunity for dynamic upgrades as technology improves. Your computer can play codecs that did not exist when it was designed and manufactured, and there are few limits to future possibilities. Of course bandwidth will do nothing but increase as time goes by. The same cannot be said of players for finalized standards like DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray.

Just an opinion. It just seems to me that things are moving much faster than they ever have, and I don't think anyone can really tell what home media will look like in 3-5 years.
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post #207 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 05:04 PM
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Having this thing called "Common sense" tells me this idea is stupid.

I don't suppose you are familiar with the Rumpole of the Old Bailey series?

Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

1) Who are these people investing in flash media download kiosks? Its not even as convinient as buying a Disc or downloading. Whats the point?

If downloading at home was fast I would agree it would be more convenient. However buying a disc would not be as convenient for many. Many people work downtown in large office buildings where a kiosk could be just an elevator ride away.


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Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

2) In your lifetime... you have you never seen a product and thought "What a stupid idea". ?

Yes I have. Uncompressed audio on Blu-ray discs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

3) Who wants to trade in something they bought new... for a used one. Who knows what the previous owner did with it. They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop

I think the days when people used flash cards to sift through Dog Poop are well behind us, I could be wrong though.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
--David Mamet
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post #208 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 05:17 PM
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They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop. Is that what you want? Pay for a new product... only to trade it in a week later for one that has someone elses germs all over it?

Well, I guess that answers the "Common Sense" question. Thanks.
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post #209 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 05:36 PM
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At lunch today I walked over to Borders Books and Music to look for a CD. Upstairs where they have their music and dvds there has been quite the change. Whole sections of music have been downsized and moved, rows of cd holders empty, the wooden carcasses of CD display cases sitting on the floor. Curiously, while the number of CDs took a hit, their prices didn't.

And did DVD or Bluray get any of this new found space? Nope, not a bit. Maybe later, but I doubt it. They just set out some more tables with remainder books on them.

The films of De Sica, of Welles, of Michael Powell and Emeric Pressburger made little money and endure as spiritual delights.
--David Mamet
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post #210 of 328 Old 04-02-2008, 06:50 PM
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Well, I guess that answers the "Common Sense" question. Thanks.

If you like paying for new prices... only to trade it in for someone elses used crap... Thats up to you. But when I pay for new products, I dont want someone elses used junk.

If you paid full price for a cell phone, would you want to trade your cellphone in every few days... for someone elses used phone(same make and model)?
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