THX Chief Scientist: ...it's too late for Blu-ray - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 07:57 AM - Thread Starter
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Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

After HD DVDs demise the UK Magazine asked him for a comment. "Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

Hopefully Lucas Film don't listen too much to their THX department or we might never see Star Wars on a HD disc format like Blu-ray.

Source: Home Cinema Choice Magazine (May 2008)

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chie...r-blu-ray/5379

Blu-ray : 340
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post #2 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by lgans316 View Post

I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory.

What an idiot.

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post #3 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:06 AM
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I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.
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post #4 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:08 AM
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Yea I think those comments are like we should skip a generation when this one is just getting a toe hold. That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films for many many years.

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post #5 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:10 AM
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THX? Remind me again why I should trust the opinion of the same people who will whore themselves out to anyone that wants those three letters on a disc or receiver regardless of quality?

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post #6 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:10 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

Yea I think those comments are like we should skip a generation when this one is just getting a toe hold. That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films for many many years.

Art

Quote:


That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films to own for many many years.

Fixed it!
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post #7 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech View Post

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.


That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.

Format Neutral
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post #8 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:21 AM
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THX is a sticker company now, right?
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post #9 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutgar View Post

What an idiot.

+1

Just because he/she may be the "THX Chief Scientist" doesn't mean he/she knows jack about the consumer market. I really don't see how he could beleive that 50gigs of flash memory will get to the price point of "spinning media" anytime soon. While I beleive it will happen in the future I don't see flash getting large enough and cheap enough for years to come.

I want my HDM
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post #10 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTYoung View Post

That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.

Except for the part where those are flash-based players, not flash-based media.

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post #11 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:36 AM
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Cheif scientists.... LOL. What have they invented lately? Stickers for Monster cable?
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post #12 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:38 AM
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There's a reason why scientists and engineers are not business people (no offense to anyone).

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post #13 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:39 AM
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One mans opinion don't mean jack.


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post #14 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:43 AM
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I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.
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post #15 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:43 AM
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Quote:


"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet

I personally couldn't imagine why I would want to carry movies around in my wallet. I don't have room for the crap in there right now. Beside why don't we all wait until they have telepathy figured out then we don't needd to carry any thing and the screen can be as big as you can imagine.
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post #16 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

Except for the part where those are flash-based players, not flash-based media.

Just look in the front of you PS3 or HD DVD player, there it is.
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post #17 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Djoel View Post

One mans opinion don't mean jack.


DJOel

Your are correct. I guess it is one man's opinion as to who's opinion it is that doesn't mean jack.
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post #18 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutgar View Post

What an idiot.

Just because you disagree, your only response is name calling? Weak and lame to say the least. There are some valid points for flash and downloading.

It's the masses that's going to determine if Flash and/or Downloading is going to surpass Blu-Ray's market share.

But I will tell you reading this type of information does make me hold off on any BD players, not including BD standalones are only at profile 1.1 or getting there.

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post #19 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.

Exactly.

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post #20 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:48 AM
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It'll be a while before there are USB memory sticks that are big enough and cheap enough to be used for selling high def media on (eg. 8GB USB memory sticks are £19 in the UK and that's without any content on).

Also, wouldn't they need some setting on it to make it read-only? What about power surges - couldn't they be wiped by mistake by a power surge? I can imagine they would generally be more reliable and quieter and cheaper to run than a spinning disc though.
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post #21 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted by angelo913 View Post


But I will tell you reading this type of information does make me hold off on any BD players, not including BD standalones are only at profile 1.1 or getting there.

...Angelo

If reading that type of information was really holding back your purchases, you wouldn't have bought HD-DVD. The future existed a year ago, didn't it?
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post #22 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 08:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arakis5 View Post

Just look in the front of you PS3 or HD DVD player, there it is.

Excellent observation! USB Flash ports already on these devices.

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post #23 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calamus View Post

+1

Just because he/she may be the "THX Chief Scientist" doesn't mean he/she knows jack about the consumer market. I really don't see how he could beleive that 50gigs of flash memory will get to the price point of "spinning media" anytime soon. While I beleive it will happen in the future I don't see flash getting large enough and cheap enough for years to come.

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.
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post #24 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.

True but saying that it will have a six or seven year lifespan is different than it's too late for it.

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post #25 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech View Post

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.

Yes because digital download services (I-tunes) haven't made a dent in the music industry vs. CDs.

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post #26 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eganov View Post

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

So currently you wouldn't be able to get more than one movie on a disc at the same quality as a Blu-ray 50GB one, and it'll be a while before 50GB flash memory sticks become available (and that'll only hold 1 movie at 50GB Blu-ray equivalent) - and by that time there might be 100GB or 200GB Blu-ray discs available)?
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post #27 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

If reading that type of information was really holding back your purchases, you wouldn't have bought HD-DVD. The future existed a year ago, didn't it?

Going off topic...
I have to agree, I have lived and learned. But I have some valid points to my decision making with HD DVD. Back in the summer of 2005 my 56" RPCRT 480i TV packed it in. I was looking for a replacement at the time without breaking the bank, I bought a 65" 1080i RPCRT HDTV. My 1999 DVD player only supported 480i via component. Therefore in the fall of 2005 I was searching for a up-converting DVD player and I was starting to read about Blu-Ray & HD DVD. Blu-Ray had the better specs like today but on release day Spring 2006 HD DVD had the least problems and completed specs, top it off it is a superb up-converting player which was my main reason to replace my aging DVD player. HD DVD gave a taste of HDM that got me hooked on the media.

Here we are 2 years later and BD still has profile changes and BDM lacking in features and 50GB media still showing no advantage to HDM. HD is gone but I still consider it a better format. I have no regrets with HDM I have a lot of great flicks with a HD player that does excellent DVD up-converting. I plan to continue with another HD format and if Flash turns out to be better, so be it.

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post #28 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:15 AM
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post #29 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:22 AM
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THX certified flash cards.


I look forward to the day when I have a large shelving unit filled with 128GB flash drives. So let's say 2045 or something like that.
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post #30 of 328 Old 03-25-2008, 09:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luclin999 View Post

Yes because digital download services (I-tunes) haven't made a dent in the music industry vs. CDs.


Appropriate analogy? People are downloading songs, not albums. I doubt there's much of a market for 4 minute movie scene downloads...
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