"Rentrak State Of VOD: Trend Report 2009" - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 10:01 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Rentrak Corporation (Nasdaq: RENT), the leader in multi-screen media measurement serving the advertising and entertainment industries, today announced the Rentrak State of VOD: Trend Report 2009 is now available for purchase. The report encompasses industry-wide performance data for all of 2009, and is based on an aggregation of data from Rentrak's OnDemand Essentials service which tracks 70 million set-top-boxes (STBs) across 33 operators and for more than 100 content providers.

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Rentrak State of VOD Report Highlights:

* VOD viewers spent more than 3.1 billion hours watching on demand content last year
* In an average month, 45% of enabled STBs are using VOD
* Active users of VOD are ordering an average of 16.4 free programs per month, 8.7 subscription programs and 2.0 movies-on-demand
* Viewers placed 5.1 billion FOD orders and spent nearly 1.6 billion hours watching FOD content
* Subscription Video-On-Demand (SVOD) content had 1.6 billion transactions and more than 1.1 billion hours of playtime
* Transaction-On-Demand (TOD) content had more than 208 million orders totaling more than $963 million dollars in gross revenues in 2009

http://www.rentrak.com/section/corpo...elease_no=1254
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post #2 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 12:03 PM
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Despite studio efforts to spur higher margin video-on-demand (VOD) consumption of new release movies, a new report claims that active users on average purchased just two VOD titles per month in 2009.

In its “State of VOD” report, Portland, Ore.-based Rentrak Corp. said VOD viewers watched 3.1 billion hours of on demand content, which included 16.4 free programs per month and 8.7 subscription programs.

Rentrak, which tracks VOD usage via third-party cable set-top boxes, found that viewers placed 5.1 billion orders for free on demand content and spent nearly 1.6 billion hours watching free VOD.

Subscription-based VOD (including Netflix streaming) had 1.6 billion transactions and more than 1.1 billion hours of playtime. Transaction-based VOD for new-release movies had more than 208 million orders totaling in excess of $963 million dollars in gross revenue.

By comparison, sales and rentals of Blu-ray Disc movies topped $1.5 billion in 2009, according to DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group. Sales and rentals of DVD, the format VOD is supposed to supplant, hit $16.4 billion.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/dow...-a-month-19397
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post #3 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 01:13 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Thanks for starting this discussion!

So let's look at the numbers...

Transaction based VOD (just for new releases) alone brought in $963 million in revenue off of just 208 million orders.

Subscription based VOD has 1.6 billion transactions and more than 1.1 billion hours of playtime. That is 7 1/2 times as many transactions as transaction based VOD, of which no revenue is specified in this report.

What we do know is that Netflix is growing like gangbusters and that growth has been attributed to their streaming offering. Indeed, their subscriber growth is far outpacing their disc shipment growth so we know that they are driving more and more of their revenue from streaming. So those uncaptured revenue numbers are certainly significant (you can be sure that subscription revenue for BD was captured).


Consider that the entire industry has put every effort into making Blu-ray a success and it STILL cannot make up for the tumbling of physical media, even in the face of their greatest Box Office performance. In Blu-ray's banner 2009, physical media still dropped a whopping $1.4 BILLION dollars (right around 15% of the market IN ONE YEAR), and is already down another 8% in Q1 2010 even compared to the absolutely dismal 2009.
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post #4 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 01:27 PM - Thread Starter
 
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In the meantime, Blockbuster lost another $65.4 million ($.33 per share which missed targets by $.19 a share) on decreased revenues of 7.1% so the trend of poor performance in physical media continues.
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post #5 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 02:32 PM
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Well, let me see, do I want the 18,000 million from disc or the 963 million from VOD and streaming. Give me the 18 billion!!
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post #6 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post

In the meantime, Blockbuster lost another $65.4 million ($.33 per share which missed targets by $.19 a share) on decreased revenues of 7.1% so the trend of poor performance in physical media continues.

Pure, undiluted BS and you know it. Check the gains for Redbox for starters.
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post #7 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post

In the meantime, Blockbuster lost another $65.4 million ($.33 per share which missed targets by $.19 a share) on decreased revenues of 7.1% so the trend of poor performance in physical media continues.

The Blockbuster numbers are right.. it looks like my BB stock will continue to go no where fast.

Netflix growth seems to be based in streaming and the continued roll out of Netflix enabled devices.

Physical media, I think it's a toss up to throw the towel in just yet. BB has shuttered a lot of stores. At the benefit of more regional small chains as well as independent Mom and Pops. In my area, since BB pulled out, the remaining player is going gangbusters... parking lots full every evening.

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post #8 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by mgkdragn View Post

Netflix growth seems to be based in streaming and the continued roll out of Netflix enabled devices.

Make no mistake about it, Netflix and Redbox has benefitted tremendously from Blockbuster and Hollywood store closures. And Netflix has been advertising like crazy with national TV & radio spots as well as banners on an untold number of web sites.
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post #9 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Make no mistake about it, Netflix and Redbox has benefitted tremendously from Blockbuster and Hollywood store closures. And Netflix has been advertising like crazy with national TV & radio spots as well as banners on an untold number of web sites.

Wendell, I agree with you 110%.. just wish I had bought Netflix stock when it was cheap.

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post #10 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:17 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Make no mistake about it, Netflix and Redbox has benefitted tremendously from Blockbuster and Hollywood store closures. And Netflix has been advertising like crazy with national TV & radio spots as well as banners on an untold number of web sites.

And yet Netflix's subscriber acquisition costs continue to drop.

Yes they are advertising, but the streaming is resonating with customers so well that their average acquisition cost is VERY low.

Compare that to a company like Dish who has to spend so much to attract a customer that it takes them 22 months just to break even. Ouch!
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post #11 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:18 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Make no mistake about it, Netflix and Redbox has benefitted tremendously from Blockbuster and Hollywood store closures. And Netflix has been advertising like crazy with national TV & radio spots as well as banners on an untold number of web sites.

Of course. The decline of physical media revenue has been a boon to Redbox's dirt cheap offering (new market value for physical media) and Netflix's hybrid subscription service.
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post #12 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:19 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Pure, undiluted BS and you know it. Check the gains for Redbox for starters.

Even after a dismal year where physical media shed $1.4 billion in revenue, they STILL performed worse in Q1 2010.

That is not BS. That is a fact.
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post #13 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:40 PM
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So let's look at the numbers...

Lets...

These VOD numbers include both SD and HD combined.

Can you just IMAGINE how small the HD revenue is? So small they don't even break it out - they just lump the whole bunch together - looks better that way.

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...Consider that the entire industry has put every effort into making Blu-ray a success and it STILL cannot make up for the tumbling of physical media, even in the face of their greatest Box Office performance. In Blu-ray's banner 2009, physical media still dropped a whopping $1.4 BILLION dollars (right around 15% of the market IN ONE YEAR), and is already down another 8% in Q1 2010 even compared to the absolutely dismal 2009.

Funny. VOD hasn't made up for DVD either.

And VOD has been around LONGER than bluray has!! Why hasn't it made up for DVDs drop???????????????????

Nothing - not bluray or Netflix or VOD or digital - will match DVD at its peak.

And that "Greatest box Office performance" is due to 33% more expensive 3D tickets, you know this yet still fall back on this same lame @$$ statement about the box office sales.

WHY HASN'T DIGITAL RENTAL OR SELL THROUGH MADE UP FOR DVDS DROP????? It's been around 4 eva...

Physical+digital = total Hollywood $$$. Total Hollywood $$ is down, even with digital. Why oh why is that????????
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post #14 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 03:52 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

Lets...

These VOD numbers include both SD and HD combined.

Can you just IMAGINE how small the HD revenue is? So small they don't even break it out - they just lump the whole bunch together - looks better that way.

The combined VOD/streaming market (HD and SD) is growing, while the combined physical media market is declining sharply. That is the point!


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Funny. VOD hasn't made up for DVD either.

And VOD has been around LONGER than bluray has!! Why hasn't it made up for DVDs drop???????????????????

Nothing - not bluray or Netflix or VOD or digital - will match DVD at its peak.

And that "Greatest box Office performance" is due to 33% more expensive 3D tickets, you know this yet still fall back on this same lame @$$ statement about the box office sales.

WHY HASN'T DIGITAL RENTAL OR SELL THROUGH MADE UP FOR DVDS DROP????? It's been around 4 eva...

Physical+digital = total Hollywood $$$. Total Hollywood $$ is down, even with digital. Why oh why is that????????

Actually, no. Hollywood box office is UP!! Revenue numbers for box office are very strong. It is physical media sell through and rentals continuous decline that is making things look bad for Hollywood.

There is growth everywhere else.

Hollywood needs to get together and make a concerted offering for streaming like they did with Blu-ray. By now it is obvious that only having a concerted effort for Blu-ray will mean continuing declines in the Home Video marketplace.

BTW... thanks for bringing up this part of the discussion! My plan was to simply focus on the streaming/VOD piece, but it is always fun to dissect the entire market.
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post

The combined VOD/streaming market (HD and SD) is growing, while the combined physical media market is declining sharply. That is the point!

The overall market INCLUDING VOD/STREAMING is also declining. THAT is the point! All those graphs cast out to 2013, etc. never beat what DVD was doing in 2005, 2006. Which means nothing is matching DVD.

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Actually, no. Hollywood box office is UP!! Revenue numbers for box office are very strong.

Because of 3D. In case you haven't noticed, 3D is kind of popular now, and those tickets cost more $$. Without 3D...I shutter to think...

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It is physical media sell through and rentals continuous decline that is making things look bad for Hollywood.

There is growth everywhere else.

Yup. There is growth in bluray and digital. Only DVD is dropping. But yet still, nothing is making up for the drop in DVD. WHY????? VOD has been out before bluray...why can't it make up for DVDs drop???????????? Whyyyy???

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Hollywood needs to get together and make a concerted offering for streaming like they did with Blu-ray. By now it is obvious that only having a concerted effort for Blu-ray will mean continuing declines in the Home Video marketplace.

Let me repeat NOTHING, not Netflix, not VOD, not bluray, is making up for DVDs drop. Nothing. VOD has been out for years. VOD was a concerted effort. It is not making up for DVD. Clearly it is a failure, right?

I get it, we all get it. Netflix is growing. Yay. bluray is also growing. Yay.

YET STILL, nothing is making up for the drop in DVD. Nothing. Nothing.

Do you understand this? Apart from your oh so predictable "physical media" lumping...."physical media" is in decline...blah blah blah.

We all know only DVD is in decline. We all should also know that n o t h i n g is making up for it. Not Netflix. Not VOD. Not iTunes. Not bluray. Great - those things are growing. Hooray!! What they are still not doing is making up for DVD. Why?

Why? It should be clear by now. DVD is/was the king. If a combination of other technologies is still failing to match DVDs re$ult$, then DVD will likely remain the all time top dog. EVER.

One last time - nothing, physical nor digital, is making up for DVDs drop. Nothing.
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post #16 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:09 PM
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Of course nothing will ever be as popular as DVD. Things were alot different 10 years ago. There were not multiple options like there are now. So it's more fragmented now hence nothing will be as popular as DVD was.

I would think most people watch movies and TV content differently than in 2000. In 2000 I watched mostly DVDs. But I stopped watching DVDs in 2005 in anticipation of HD DVd and BD coming out in 2006 since I was sick of watching SD content after I had been watching HD on TV since 2001.
And now I watch alot fewer BDs than I did several years ago, and that will continue to decline.

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post #17 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

One last time - nothing, physical nor digital, is making up for DVDs drop. Nothing.

One thing is very, very clear. The revenue from IPTV streaming is a BIG nothing. The streaming folks just can not come to grips with that fact.
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post #18 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:19 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

...

There has only been one concerted effort by Hollywood to grow the Home Video market. That was Blu-ray. Yes it pulled in $1.5 billion in 2009, but the physical media market STILL lost $1.4 billion and continues it's decline.

And that is occurring in a market where box office revenue is on the rise. Blu-ray should be able to at least do the same with it's higher price tag (a la 3-D in theater).

Now it is time for Hollywood to give streaming the same treatment. Some of that work has already started. It is clear that the planned successor to DVD (Blu-ray) is not only incapable of growing the market, but that it is seeing the market erode during what should be it's major growth period (with cheap players and bundled disc packages).


And once again, thanks for bringing physical media into the discussion. It was not my plan for the thread to go this route, but it is always good to look at the numbers.
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post #19 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:28 PM - Thread Starter
 
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One thing is very, very clear. The revenue from IPTV streaming is a BIG nothing. The streaming folks just can not come to grips with that fact.

Interesting viewpoint. Even without taking into account a single dime from subscription revenue it is still just under $1 billion.

I guess that makes Blu-ray revenue a BIG nothing (+ 50%). Pretty harsh for the offering that has broad and unified support throughout the studio, distributor and CE industry.
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post #20 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:44 PM
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There has only been one concerted effort by Hollywood to grow the Home Video market. That was Blu-ray.

There was a "concerted effort"...after a 2 year FORMAT WAR where studios were split. How "concerted" was that??

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Yes it pulled in $1.5 billion in 2009, but the physical media market STILL lost $1.4 billion and continues it's decline.

DVD is in decline. ONLY DVD. Only. DVD.

As I said - bluray is growing. But nothing can match DVDs drop. You do get that "nothing" means neither bluray nor ANYTHING digital right???????? Please confirm you understand that point.

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And that is occurring in a market where box office revenue is on the rise. Blu-ray should be able to at least do the same with it's higher price tag (a la 3-D in theater).

Bluray requires a HDTV. 50% of the US doesn't have an HDTV.

3D movie tickets require nothing but going to the movies and buying a 3D movie ticket.

Stupid comparison.

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Now it is time for Hollywood to give streaming the same treatment. Some of that work has already started. It is clear that the planned successor to DVD (Blu-ray) is not only incapable of growing the market, but that it is seeing the market erode during what should be it's major growth period (with cheap players and bundled disc packages).

Please. Enough with the selective washover nonsense. Digital is not a baby. VOD was around BEFORE bluray. iTunes has been selling movies for years now. Streaming has been around since 2007. YET STILL...THEY ARE NOT MAKING UP FOR DVD EITHER. Just admit it and move on. Nothing is.

So is your new excuse that because digital hasn't had a "concerted effort" that has prevented it from making up for DVDs losses??? Lame. Stop making excuses. Digital was available for sale. And currently is. VOD was a concerted effort, an agreement with studios and media providers. It has yet to make up for DVD.

You are apparently incapable of admitting that digital movies have been out for years but yet the overall video market has still fallen during their presence. NOTHING can make up for DVD.

Bluray was in a format war for two years. Digital has has free reign to do whatever it wanted. It has been around for YEARS, and has yet to make up for DVDs drop.

Indeed digital media has failed to make up for DVD.
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post #21 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 05:54 PM - Thread Starter
 
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...

There is not one single person with even a hint of knowledge about the industry who does not know that Blu-ray is positioned by the industry to succeed DVD.

That is a fact.

Now some of your points may be excuses for why Blu-ray has failed to grow, or has managed to shed $1.4 Billion of physical media revenue in one year. But they are nothing more than poor excuses. There is not one major studio, CE manufacturer or any major player involved in the physical media market that does not support and promote Blu-ray.


Blu-ray has not grown the market. Indeed, the market for physical media has seen the most dramatic negative growth as Blu-ray has become more mainstream.

It is painfully clear that the studios need to shift their strategy and admit that as long as they only support Blu-ray as the successor to DVD, they will continue to see eroding revenue in Home Entertainment.
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There is not one single person with even a hint of knowledge about the industry who does not know that Blu-ray is positioned by the industry to succeed DVD.

That is a fact.

There is not one single person that doesn't know there was a format war. There is not one single person that knows 1/2 of the population doesn't even have an HDTV.

At this point, there also shouldn't be one single person left that sees you simply cannot admit anything wrong with digital media.

You want a FACT? VOD has been around for YEARS and has done nothing to grow the market.

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Now some of your points may be excuses for why Blu-ray has failed to grow, or has managed to shed $1.4 Billion of physical media revenue in one year.

Yup. bluray alone, all by itself, lost $1.4B. blame bluray. bluray has literally lost $1.4B. What an asinine comment.

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But they are nothing more than poor excuses. There is not one major studio, CE manufacturer or any major player involved in the physical media market that does not support and promote Blu-ray.

There was in 2006-2008. Toshiba didn't support it. Universal didn't support it. And Paramount didn't.

Funny...during that whole time VOD WAS around. And supported by ALL Studios. And it didn't do jacksh*t to grow overall video revenues. DVD kept on a fallin...and VOD did nothing.

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Blu-ray has not grown the market.

Digital has not grown the market.

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Indeed, the market for physical media has seen the most dramatic negative growth as Blu-ray has become more mainstream.

Indeed, the overall market for home media has declined as digital media has become more mainstream.

At the time of the most explosive growth of digital media consumption, overall home videos sales are down, down, down.

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It is painfully clear that the studios need to shift their strategy and admit that as long as they only support Blu-ray as the successor to DVD, they will continue to see eroding revenue in Home Entertainment.

It is painfully clear that digital media has been for sale since before bluray and has not grown the market. A concerted effort will not likely change this. They have not only supported bluray. They supported HD DVD. And they are clearly supporting Vudu, iTunes and Amazon and Netflix. Clearly, none of these are making up for DVD.

Indeed you cannot admit this. Indeed you cannot admit that Vudu has been selling movies for years, as has Amazon and the xbox360 and iTunes. Yet still the home video market is IN DECLINE.

Clearly digital media has failed to grow the market. Indeed.
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post #23 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:12 PM
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Even without taking into account a single dime from subscription revenue it is still just under $1 billion.

No, no, no. IPTV STREAMING is a big NOTHING. World wide IPTV STREAMING is a big NOTHING. World wide Blu-ray is projected to be several billion for 2010. Enough said.
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post #24 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:12 PM - Thread Starter
 
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...

I know you are just trying to cause trouble here.

There is simply no way that you could miss the obvious difference between the entire industry chain supporting the Blu-ray format and the disparate offering of Digital Distribution.

When the industry gets together with a single Digital Content offering that works across a range of devices, then you can have a 1:1 comparison.


For your benefit, think of this simple explanation. When you buy a CD, DVD or Blu-ray it should work on a variety of CE devices and PCs that support that standard. There is no correlating offering for Digital Distribution with unified support from all studios, distributors and CE manufacturers.

When there is, then you will be comparing peer services. Anyone trying to say that Digital Distribution has the same concerted industry support as Blu-ray before that happens is delusional or ignorant of the facts.


But it does bring it all back to the second post (since the first post had zero mention of physical media or Blu-ray). Even with that level of industry support, Blu-ray has failed to prevent the physical media market from shedding $1.4 Billion in one year with the downward trend continuing.
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post #25 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:16 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

No, no, no. IPTV STREAMING is a big NOTHING. World wide IPTV STREAMING is a big NOTHING. World wide Blu-ray is projected to be several billion for 2010. Enough said.

Going back to the original post, transactional VOD alone has nearly $1 billion in revenue. That does not take into account subscription revenue, which is obviously a growing market:

Quote:


Rentrak State of VOD Report Highlights:

* VOD viewers spent more than 3.1 billion hours watching on demand content last year
* In an average month, 45% of enabled STBs are using VOD
* Active users of VOD are ordering an average of 16.4 free programs per month, 8.7 subscription programs and 2.0 movies-on-demand
* Viewers placed 5.1 billion FOD orders and spent nearly 1.6 billion hours watching FOD content
* Subscription Video-On-Demand (SVOD) content had 1.6 billion transactions and more than 1.1 billion hours of playtime
* Transaction-On-Demand (TOD) content had more than 208 million orders totaling more than $963 million dollars in gross revenues in 2009


Oh, and in case you missed it. Blockbuster reported declines in both sell-through and rental of physical media while VOD posted 78% growth.
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post #26 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post

...Even with that level of industry support, Blu-ray has failed to prevent the physical media market from shedding $1.4 Billion in one year with the downward trend continuing.

Even with widespread support from multi-billion dollar companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, etc., digital media has failed to prevent the overall home video market from shedding $1.4 Billion in one year with the downward trend continuing.

You do realize that bluray AND vod AND iTunes etc. are all supposed to replace DVD right? It's all about revenue, isn't that what you say?? In the long run who cares where the $$ comes from, as long as it goes up. Problem is..it isn't going up is it? Even with digital media growing...it STILL isn't going up. Why? Nothing can make up for DVDs drop. Admit it. Digital media has failed to make up for DVDs drop.

NOTHING. Not Netflix. Not bluray. Not iTunes. Nothing has made up for DVD. DVD is king.

WHY HASN'T ANYTHING BEEN ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR DVDS DROP? Wherein "anything" INCLUDES VOD, iTunes, Amazon, etc.

You can sit here and make excuses all day. Digital music had no universal industry support. It was spread between iTunes, Rhapsody, etc. None of them being compatible.

Apple sells digital movies. Amazon sells digital movies. Have been for YEARS. Those sales simply are not making up for the drop of DVD. Please explain why that is.

Indeed, digital media is failing at making up for DVDs drop. Clearly. Indeed, the overall home video market is falling in spite of digital media.
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post #27 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:21 PM
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I think we all need to step back and realize the studios are flapping in the wind. DVD was the cash cow when theater revenues were down. OK, so now, based on Avatar and inflated ticket prices, Hollywood is patting itself on the back. Once again.

BD, a great benefit for the consumer, was and is viewed as DVD's replacement, rightfully so. It did not in any way shape or form take off like DVD. Why..?? Well, one main reason is the consumer is tired of replacing that collection. Period. Second, in many consumers minds, the increase in quality from DVD to BD is a non issue. They don't care. DVD looks great. Let's not forget, we are the geeks here and we have a much different perspective than the bulk of the population.

Now, Hollywood is eying 3-D as the next cash cow. Equipment makers are hungering for the old says when everyone bought new DVD players and related gear. Greed and profit are the driving force, and that's a good thing for the end user.. it drives the tech and always has.

Streaming is the future, and that's the end of the story. We can debate the merits of that forever, but it will be the way things go. Now go ahead, dive in and rip me.. I can feel it coming...

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post #28 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:30 PM - Thread Starter
 
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It really is that simple.

Not only has Blu-ray failed to stabilize the market, it has seen the physical media market shed $1.4 Billion in revenue.


Until the industry finalizes and ships offerings based on DECE (or comparable), Digital Distribution will not be a peer offering with the same broad support as Blu-ray, DVD or CD.

They could go the music industry route and not do a concerted offering, and suffer through years and years of decline. Hopefully the studios are wiser than that and will not hold on to the phantom hope that Blu-ray can grow or even stabilize the market.
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post #29 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgkdragn View Post

Streaming is the future, and that's the end of the story.

Streaming may be the future for renting, nothing more than that.

And that's the rest of the story.
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post #30 of 92 Old 05-13-2010, 06:34 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by vikingfan View Post

Streaming may be the future for renting, nothing more than that.

And that's the rest of the story.

You believe the sell-through market will disappear?
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