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post #1 of 6 Old 02-09-2013, 02:05 PM - Thread Starter
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Greetings All

Being shut in because of the blizzard (I live in New Hampshire) I've binged all 13 chapters of House Of Cards. I (and my wife) have evolved to enjoy binge viewing so this binge is nothing new.

I enjoyed the show, I look forward to the next installments but, that really isn't the reason for this post. Before I get to the actual reason a disclaimer is needed.

I am a nobody, I have no industry ties and I am by no means a business model wiz kid, these are just going to be my personal opinion, and just like the expression goes “Everybody has one”

I cut the cable/ripped dish down over 4 years ago, we relied on OTA using the computer as the DVR, an old ATI HD TV card. At that time HULU and Fancast were just starting out. I vividly remember a business trip I had to make, the hotel I stayed in had all the cable/channels you would ever need, yet I fired up my laptop to go to HULU to watch the few shows I wanted to see. The following evening during the plane ride home it dawned on me the significance of my choosing the laptop for my evening of viewing rather than a fully loaded cable TV choice.

Today I am a Netflix (streaming only, DVDs don't allow for binge viewing) customer, I am a Amazon Prime member, I occasionally use HULU and rarely use Xfinity (Fancast) anymore. Today I have a good HTPC and can program/record (with a mouse click) all the major network OTA shows, as well as going to various providers web sights (wife love Project Runway, Lifetime makes the latest episode available the next day), and for the shows we can't get legally for free, we pay the $1.99 (Top Chief via Amazon) I look in retrospect at this journey over the past 4 years and will dare to look forward and guess at what the future is/will bring.


Satellite TV: Well this will go the way of a rotary phone, with all the devices we do and will own capable of streaming, and even more content becoming available online I can't foresee a business model that the satellite TV industry can survive in.

Cable TV: I see them evolving in to just an ISP, maybe with only basic/local channels, OTA HDTV channels will help this evolution, Cable almost killed the local OTA channels, I find it funny the shoe is on the other foot now.

Networks: Well, I can only guess they will be forced to provide more content online (if they want to survive), the recent willingness of Netflix and Amazon to invest in producing their own series should scare them a bit (should actually scare them a lot) and make them realize they need to accept an alternate means to distribute their media content.

Netflix: I think they are great (for the money) and have no complaints, they were the ones that started all this (poor video rental places) and it will be interesting how deep this rabbit hole is going to go. My only concern about Netflix is they may go the way of America Online (remember how great they were in the beginning, and how we (I) grew to hate them), it is tough to sustain trend setting status.

Amazon: I enjoy my prime membership, where do I think they will go? I believe they are the dark horse, they have deep pockets and have been able to jump on the newest band wagon of trends in the past. If I had to guess, it would be different Prime membership levels, the various levels (and fees) for different networks content. 1st level, TLC & TNT, 2nd level, first level plus Bravo & Discovery, Etc, Etc

A subject that has to be brought in to this type of conversation is, the Hack Sites: I believe most people are willing to pay a modest amount for only the content they want, but when all else fails this is a path some choose. This could be the red headed step child in the room to any business model. The only way to compete is to offer quality content at a reasonable price. Look what Napster did to the music industry, I see the same thing happening with video content today that happened to music 10 years ago, I only wonder if the industry has learned anything from those Napster days.

So to conclude, Netflix threw down the gauntlet with House of Cards and brought us into a new era. I think when all the dust settles, this will make Netflix money and spawn more content like it (via Netflix and others)for all to enjoy. I see Satellite TV going away, cable companies are reduced to being just ISPs, this will force the networks to distribute using that newfangled thing called the internet.

Well that's my opinion (not that anyone asked :-} )

AFM
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post #2 of 6 Old 02-10-2013, 12:14 AM
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The death of satellite TV has been predicted before, but as long as there are rural locations where no one wants to even run cable and they can't get high speed internet satellite TV will be around for awhile.
In many places people can't get OTA reception so i still expect cable to be around.
In the future we'll look back fondly to the days of subscription streaming ,when we are paying per show. Amazon is only willing to lose money for a while. Netflix and HULU will raise prices and free HULU will end.
Cable will oulive us all. But we live to see the death of OTA. Remember the first reason cable TV came about, people coudn't bet OTA reception in valleys and the wrong side of mountain ranges. (And that problem lives to this day.)
Internet costs can only go up, capacity costs money. if everybody streams the internet is not up for it at this point.
Are the networks scared not really, in many cases they own studios and that means content ownership.
Has Netflix thrown down a gauntlet, only to other streaming services.
And so it goes.....

"Bring out yer dead!".."Wait I'm not dead yet!"..(Sound Austrian here) "WRONG !!" (You know what happens next..)
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post #3 of 6 Old 02-10-2013, 12:43 AM
 
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Sorry, but CATV, Satellite, FiOS, UVerse, etc. are not going anywhere fast. If anything, those services are moving towards content onDemand, so what you are stating as something you have been doing for a while, most providers have been doing it for at least the past 3 years. And remember, that there is a lot of content that will only be available on DVD/Blu-Ray, never available for streaming, same as stuff that is only available through networks on the Pay to watch providers, and never available through an online website, unless you Torrent it.
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post #4 of 6 Old 02-10-2013, 05:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afineman View Post

Greetings All

Being shut in because of the blizzard (I live in New Hampshire) I've binged all 13 chapters of House Of Cards. I (and my wife) have evolved to enjoy binge viewing so this binge is nothing new.

I enjoyed the show, I look forward to the next installments but, that really isn't the reason for this post. Before I get to the actual reason a disclaimer is needed.

I am a nobody, I have no industry ties and I am by no means a business model wiz kid, these are just going to be my personal opinion, and just like the expression goes “Everybody has one”

I cut the cable/ripped dish down over 4 years ago, we relied on OTA using the computer as the DVR, an old ATI HD TV card. At that time HULU and Fancast were just starting out. I vividly remember a business trip I had to make, the hotel I stayed in had all the cable/channels you would ever need, yet I fired up my laptop to go to HULU to watch the few shows I wanted to see. The following evening during the plane ride home it dawned on me the significance of my choosing the laptop for my evening of viewing rather than a fully loaded cable TV choice.

Today I am a Netflix (streaming only, DVDs don't allow for binge viewing) customer, I am a Amazon Prime member, I occasionally use HULU and rarely use Xfinity (Fancast) anymore. Today I have a good HTPC and can program/record (with a mouse click) all the major network OTA shows, as well as going to various providers web sights (wife love Project Runway, Lifetime makes the latest episode available the next day), and for the shows we can't get legally for free, we pay the $1.99 (Top Chief via Amazon) I look in retrospect at this journey over the past 4 years and will dare to look forward and guess at what the future is/will bring.


Satellite TV: Well this will go the way of a rotary phone, with all the devices we do and will own capable of streaming, and even more content becoming available online I can't foresee a business model that the satellite TV industry can survive in.

Cable TV: I see them evolving in to just an ISP, maybe with only basic/local channels, OTA HDTV channels will help this evolution, Cable almost killed the local OTA channels, I find it funny the shoe is on the other foot now.

Networks: Well, I can only guess they will be forced to provide more content online (if they want to survive), the recent willingness of Netflix and Amazon to invest in producing their own series should scare them a bit (should actually scare them a lot) and make them realize they need to accept an alternate means to distribute their media content.

Netflix: I think they are great (for the money) and have no complaints, they were the ones that started all this (poor video rental places) and it will be interesting how deep this rabbit hole is going to go. My only concern about Netflix is they may go the way of America Online (remember how great they were in the beginning, and how we (I) grew to hate them), it is tough to sustain trend setting status.

Amazon: I enjoy my prime membership, where do I think they will go? I believe they are the dark horse, they have deep pockets and have been able to jump on the newest band wagon of trends in the past. If I had to guess, it would be different Prime membership levels, the various levels (and fees) for different networks content. 1st level, TLC & TNT, 2nd level, first level plus Bravo & Discovery, Etc, Etc

A subject that has to be brought in to this type of conversation is, the Hack Sites: I believe most people are willing to pay a modest amount for only the content they want, but when all else fails this is a path some choose. This could be the red headed step child in the room to any business model. The only way to compete is to offer quality content at a reasonable price. Look what Napster did to the music industry, I see the same thing happening with video content today that happened to music 10 years ago, I only wonder if the industry has learned anything from those Napster days.

So to conclude, Netflix threw down the gauntlet with House of Cards and brought us into a new era. I think when all the dust settles, this will make Netflix money and spawn more content like it (via Netflix and others)for all to enjoy. I see Satellite TV going away, cable companies are reduced to being just ISPs, this will force the networks to distribute using that newfangled thing called the internet.

Well that's my opinion (not that anyone asked :-} )

AFM

"House Of Cards" isn't their first original series. Last year they had "Lilyhammer" and it's going to have a second season this year.
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post #5 of 6 Old 02-10-2013, 06:04 AM
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"Lilyhammer" was more of a joint venture between Netflix, NRK and a German distributor. It also aired on Norwegian network NRK.

"House of Cards" was developed exclusively for Netflix, with Netflix paying most of the $$.

Need help with your Motorola DVR? Check the Wikibook: How to use a Motorola DVR
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post #6 of 6 Old 02-10-2013, 06:09 AM
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The future of 100% online-streaming will require that the ISP's and CDN's get along. In reality, ISP's are also content providers, and they are putting as many roadblocks as possible in the way.

Further, interconnections between networks need to be beefed up. Last night, I tried watching a movie on Netflix. I started at 6:30pm Central time, and it was streaming fine (hard-wired Ethernet with a nearby switch so I can see the activity). It was fine until it got past 7PM (prime time), and more and more people started streaming. It went from the normal cadence of pause/data/pause/data, to starting to be almost pure data streaming. It then started dropping to a lower quality. I gave up and even tried an SD program, and although it stayed at High/SD, it was streaming continuously, and even paused, it kept streaming in for more than 30 seconds.

I went to my computer and did a speed test. Using Comcast's own speed test was fine, even to other areas, so I assume my setup and local connection, and probably Comcast's own network, was fine. But trying another speed test was only giving 4/4 (I'm normally 24/4), even for my own city. I did get one that did give normal speed, but it probably went through another, unclogged, router.

I also ran the Vudu speedtest on my WDTV Live. The first two times didn't even seem to start and complained about 'congestion'. On the third try, it did start and streamed the full minute with the bar maxed out.

Need help with your Motorola DVR? Check the Wikibook: How to use a Motorola DVR
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