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post #1 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 05:11 AM - Thread Starter
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Thought we should start a tread just on the US Government coupon stats.

They numbers get updated weekly here.

They are posted every Wednesday and contain data through that Tuesday.

The interesting part for me is that the first coupons are starting to expire. Last week it showed 269 coupon expired and not used. Now a week later the number is 183583. I think it will be very interesting to see how many of these things goes unused.

Doing some simple estimation on the number of request per day and the remaining of the first 22.5 million. Looks like we will run out of coupons around August 4th. Did they say they would reissue coupons to other people? I know they won't send people that already requested two any more coupons. I can't find anything in the FAQ that says if they monies goes back in the pot or not. Also, I found in a news story the second batch of 11 million is up to congress. If it is like most things congress does, the approval won't get done until January 2009. Story from February on CNet.

Looks like the number of coupons not used is rising very quickly now. Maybe it is because they started mailing out more as the system got ramped up. I can't see the rise continuing for long.

As of May 20th 269 expired coupons.
As of May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 added this week).
As of June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 added this week).
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post #2 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 06:09 AM
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Somewhere maybe on cspan when they did a news conference, I can't remember but
they said unused/expired coupons would just go back in the pot and the money used on
on continuing basis until the funds were gone in the first round.


John
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post #3 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 07:23 AM
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Two relevant articles linked below. First article (May 8) is NTIA head saying they have the authority to let people reapply when coupons expire, or to extend the expiration date. She mentions a process (waiting to see how many are expiring, and the comment and review period). The article refers to the senators who wrote to the NTIA in favor of that. In the second article (May 23), the FCC head is in favor of letting people reapply.

I can't imagine it will be fast enough to do much good, except for OTA-only households. In April the NTIA was considering a waiver for retirement homes meeting certain conditions, and they are still taking their 6 weeks of feedback comments.

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/art...dustryid=47174

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/art...dustryid=47170
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post #4 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 08:02 AM
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Federal agency rule making process.. one thing for sure.
It's slow and follows a regular order
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post #5 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 08:14 AM
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In this video http://www.ntia.doc.gov/otiahome/dtv...ntia031207.wmv the NTIA said that it would put the unused coupon money back into the program.
It also talks about putting in NTIA funds -Money being used by the NTIA- back into the program if they are not all used by the NTIA.
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post #6 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 08:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterTheGeek View Post

Thought we should start a tread just on the US Government coupon stats.

They numbers get updated weekly here.

They are posted every Wednesday and contain data through that Tuesday.

The interesting part for me is that the first coupons are starting to expire. Last week it showed 269 coupon expired and not used. Now a week later the number is 183583. I think it will be very interesting to see how many of these things goes unused.

I think a lot of early ones especially will go unused because people who have cable or satellite mistakenly ordered them thinking they needed them.

Quote:


Doing some simple estimation on the number of request per day and the remaining of the first 22.5 million. Looks like we will run out of coupons around August 4th. Did they say they would reissue coupons to other people? I know they won't send people that already requested two any more coupons. I can't find anything in the FAQ that says if they monies goes back in the pot or not. Also, I found in a news story the second batch of 11 million is up to congress. If it is like most things congress does, the approval won't get done until January 2009.

The issue on the second batch is interesting. I've not rechecked at the moment. Statements can be ambiguous, when a statement is given by the media it can be given with more authority then it really has.

My read (from the various faqs some time ago and not real documents) on the second batch was that is was already approved but not be activated until the first batch ran out. it didn't sound to me that any further congressional action was needed.

How do others understand it?
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post #7 of 368 Old 05-29-2008, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnied View Post

Federal agency rule making process.. one thing for sure.
It's slow and follows a regular order

her statement that they already have the authority was taken to mean no new rule making...

OTA only. For signal strength at your location: FCC DTV reception map
TVGOS data: Sony 250 from 5.1?, LG3410a from my DTVPal setup here, not any more.

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post #8 of 368 Old 06-06-2008, 05:09 AM - Thread Starter
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Looks like the number of coupons not being used is rising very quickly now. Maybe it is because they started mailing out more as the system got ramped up. I can't see the rise continuing for long.

As of May 20th 269 expired coupons.
As of May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 added this week).
As of June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 added this week).
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post #9 of 368 Old 06-06-2008, 12:13 PM
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I find it interesting that the number of requests normally drops steeply on weekends, but that didn't extend to Memorial Day.

-Chris
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post #10 of 368 Old 06-06-2008, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnpost View Post

I think a lot of early ones especially will go unused because people who have cable or satellite mistakenly ordered them thinking they needed them.

I think that they did not consider that people would be ordering coupons for their analog VCRs as well. Lots of analog VCRs will be doorstops come February.
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post #11 of 368 Old 06-12-2008, 05:18 AM - Thread Starter
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As of May 20th 269 expired coupons.
As of May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 added this week).
As of June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 added this week).
As of June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 added this week).

Looks like the rate of increase is leaving off.

Looks like the redemption rate is near 42% according to this news report.

We will see if someone gets around to changing the rules.
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post #12 of 368 Old 06-12-2008, 06:50 AM
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The six month CYA congressional status report was out this week, too, pdf file. A lot of brag about how many boxes are approved, no mention of how many are real yet, or how many coupons were lost in the mail or ripped from customers when retailers did not follow the rules. Rest assured: "Waste, Fraud, and Abuse" is minimlal. Of course, they remind congress that they predicted there would be 50% unused coupons, but now they need more money to re-spend the unused coupons. More money for admin costs. An easy read, 3rd grade reading level standards were maintained.

http://www.ntia.doc.gov/congress/200...use_080610.pdf
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post #13 of 368 Old 06-21-2008, 07:31 AM - Thread Starter
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As of May 20th 269 expired coupons.
As of May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 added this week).
As of June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 added this week).
As of June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 added this week).
As of June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 added this week).

It looks like the expired coupon rate has leveled off. Still getting about 3 days of expired coupons for every 7 calendar days. That put things at about the reported 40% or so not getting redeemed.
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post #14 of 368 Old 06-21-2008, 08:34 AM
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They don't quite give us enough info, do they? We know how many expired, but they don't tell us how many coupons were issued within that expiration period.

The report says that for coupons whose "life cycle" is complete (3 weeks of data), 41.7% were redeemed, meaning 58.3% were not redeemed. What made me misinterpret was their saying that's consistent with their 50% estimate. I think you did the same thing. It's actually worse than they predicted, which is why they don't have enough stamp money to send more coupons out with the recovered money. I think I'd find a way...

No telling what expired coupons mean. The low first week number may mean they didn't mail many out the first startup week, or that people who order one minute after midnight already had their digital solution, and out of curiosity went right out and picked two from what was currently available. I got a box right away so I could have digital tv, and then waited for boxes to be available. My second coupon expires Monday and if I don't get what I want, I still have the option of finding a cable customer who has a spare coupon. Once the first batch of coupons is gone, I expect we will see fewer coupons expiring.
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post #15 of 368 Old 06-22-2008, 04:57 AM
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What about redeemed but no product was delivered? If/when they decide to reissue, things will get murkier. I assume the % of unredeemed expired coupons to go down as more boxes are available.
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post #16 of 368 Old 06-25-2008, 05:17 PM
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May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).


Active coupons dropped from around 11.3 million to 10.7 million. There was a 5% increase in coupon requests this week. With no acceleration, they have 5 weeks left of Batch 1. But of course, there will be acceleration.
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post #17 of 368 Old 06-25-2008, 06:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).


Active coupons dropped from around 11.3 million to 10.7 million. There was a 5% increase in coupon requests this week. With no acceleration, they have 5 weeks left of Batch 1. But of course, there will be acceleration.

This represents a loss of $71,477,840.00 to those holding expired coupons. This is also a loss in sales for converter box vendors.

"A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME WILL SMELL AS SWEET. BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THAT WHATEVER WE CHOOSE TO CALL A ROSE WILL POSSESS THE ROSE'S FRAGRANCE."

--Benjamin Breckinridge Warfield (1917)
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post #18 of 368 Old 06-25-2008, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

They don't quite give us enough info, do they? We know how many expired, but they don't tell us how many coupons were issued within that expiration period.

More statistics here

https://www.ntiadtv.gov/coupon_stats.cfm
https://www.ntiadtv.gov/docs/WeeklyR...ionsReport.pdf
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post #19 of 368 Old 06-25-2008, 07:55 PM
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thanks, viewer29! I hadn't noticed they had expanded the materials in the zip area. That "Weekly Redemptions Report" tells the whole story, the parts missing on their "weekly stats" page.

The OTA-only household breakout was surprising, that half of those relying on OTA did not redeem their coupons before they expired.
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post #20 of 368 Old 06-25-2008, 10:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

thanks, viewer29! I hadn't noticed they had expanded the materials in the zip area. That "Weekly Redemptions Report" tells the whole story, the parts missing on their "weekly stats" page.

The OTA-only household breakout was surprising, that half of those relying on OTA did not redeem their coupons before they expired.

I'm one of those i.e. an "OTA-only expired". If there is nothing worth buying, why spend any money?

I wish they had expired by zip code to go along with ordered and redeemed by zip.

I used the statistics by zip to try to get the media here interested in the lack of boxes. The response was less than helpful.


"About 80% of all people in YYYYY and ZZZZ get their TV through
Dish TV or Cable and pay for the service. Only people receiving TV over the public airwaves will be affected and will need a box. I think that's why there aren't that many out there. Very few people are actually going to need/buy them."

Huh? She didn't respond to my follow up email asking:

'If people didn't want them then why can't retailers keep them in stock? If people didn't need them why did they order so many coupons?'
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post #21 of 368 Old 06-26-2008, 12:01 AM
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They wouldn't have to be super shoppers to find out, call 5 stores and ask what they carry, how many, and how many are they getting in per week. No brainer, it's not enough to cover 11 million active coupons.

Starting with the 40 million analog sets not connected to pay tv, we have solved about 10% of that problem (4.4 coupons redeemed). What might attract the attention of the media is a slightly different question: how many landfills can handle their share of the 40 million tv sets not hooked up to pay tv?
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post #22 of 368 Old 07-01-2008, 11:16 PM
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The WeeklyRedemptionsReport shows the number of coupons reported lost and stolen
This means they are keeping track of these coupons but don't care to help the people this has happend to.
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post #23 of 368 Old 07-02-2008, 09:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by viewer29 View Post

I'm one of those i.e. an "OTA-only expired". If there is nothing worth buying, why spend any money?

I wish they had expired by zip code to go along with ordered and redeemed by zip.

I used the statistics by zip to try to get the media here interested in the lack of boxes. The response was less than helpful.


"About 80% of all people in YYYYY and ZZZZ get their TV through
Dish TV or Cable and pay for the service. Only people receiving TV over the public airwaves will be affected and will need a box. I think that's why there aren't that many out there. Very few people are actually going to need/buy them."

Huh? She didn't respond to my follow up email asking:

'If people didn't want them then why can't retailers keep them in stock? If people didn't need them why did they order so many coupons?'

The local media here, particularly those involved with business reporting, who usually get the assignment to cover DTV transition stories, are so in bed with Comcast, Dish, and DirecTV that they just can't imagine that anyone except some backward hicks could possibly get their TV from a source other than by paying for it. Maybe this story needs to get to the media that is always looking for stories about exploitation or injury to the poor (e.g., MSNBC). They might take an interest because it would provide a chance to bash the Government and big business in one story. In this case it is clearly warranted since the whole CECB program has been so poorly executed In the end the Government won't have to shell out as much money to individuals since those expired coupons represent payments that will never be made (i.e., no one can reorder coupons that has already received their allotment, expired or not).
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post #24 of 368 Old 07-02-2008, 06:29 PM
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This afternoon the expired coupon statistics, updated through 6/30/08, are posted here:

https://www.dtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

2,244,589 coupons have expired without being used. This represents lost value of $89,783,560 to those holding expired coupons.

"A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME WILL SMELL AS SWEET. BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THAT WHATEVER WE CHOOSE TO CALL A ROSE WILL POSSESS THE ROSE'S FRAGRANCE."

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post #25 of 368 Old 07-07-2008, 04:52 AM - Thread Starter
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Running expired coupons by week:

May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).
June 30th, 2,244,589 expired coupons (457,643 this week).
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post #26 of 368 Old 07-07-2008, 12:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by domino92024 View Post

I think that they did not consider that people would be ordering coupons for their analog VCRs as well. Lots of analog VCRs will be doorstops come February.

Well, I did not think of that either. Perhaps that number will be small. My OTA friends record just the program which the CECB is tuned. When I asked "What if they want to watch a different show at the same time?" They say if that happens, they will watch their other TV.

Bob 61231
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post #27 of 368 Old 07-07-2008, 07:27 PM
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As of today, total redemptions at 4,559,642.

PiP is another thing people may not deal with right away. My VCR can share a box with PiP. That makes it close to fully functional. The NTIA doesn't care about nonessentials like VCRs and PiPs.
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post #28 of 368 Old 07-08-2008, 06:43 AM
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I'm surprised at the evenness of the requests. Maybe the availability of the DTVPal made the expired coupon count go down last week. Looks like another 2 months worth of money left.
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post #29 of 368 Old 07-08-2008, 06:54 AM
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Well, it looks like their stats have holes in them. I posted the 7/7/08 redeemed number, and it is lower than the 6/30/08 number. Maybe they are doing creative math with the MaxMedia/MicroProse/Provantage numbers in there somewhere.
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post #30 of 368 Old 07-09-2008, 07:01 PM
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Well, as of July 9th, it is now at : 2,932,958 expired coupons.
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