3D TVs to be standard by 2013 - AVS Forum
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Old 02-04-2010, 09:46 AM - Thread Starter
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< “2013 is the tipping point for adoption,” said Richard L. Gelfond, the chief executive of Imax. The expectation is that customers who bought HDTVs in the early 2000s will soon move their plasmas and LCDs to other rooms and upgrade to a 3-D rig. >

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/te...20biggs&st=cse
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Old 02-04-2010, 11:05 AM
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If someone says it on the internet, it must be true.

ps: HD TVs aren't even "standard" yet.
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Old 02-04-2010, 02:09 PM
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Given that over 13 years since HDTV broadcasting was launched we still have prime time network shows broadcast in 4:3 SD I am HIGHLY DOUBTFUL of a 2013 "tipping point" for 3-D adoption.

Symmetry is the most boring and unimaginative form of balance.
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Old 02-04-2010, 02:18 PM
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one word: shill.
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Old 02-04-2010, 02:23 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dajmacd View Post

Given that over 13 years since HDTV broadcasting was launched we still have prime time network shows broadcast in 4:3 SD I am HIGHLY DOUBTFUL of a 2013 "tipping point" for 3-D adoption.

I think that what is meant is that 3D-capable TV sets, which really means 3D TV sets or 3D TVs, will become mainstream by 2013. Certainly non-3D sets will continue to be sold, but they will be in the minority. (Correct me if I am wrong).
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:13 PM
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How the hell would the CEO of IMAX know what will happen in the HDTV consumer market in 2013? What qualifies him to make such forecasts.
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaqDan View Post

ps: HD TVs aren't even "standard" yet.

I disagree.

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Old 02-04-2010, 03:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maurice2 View Post

I think that what is meant is that 3D-capable TV sets, which really means 3D TV sets or 3D TVs, will become mainstream by 2013. Certainly non-3D sets will continue to be sold, but they will be in the minority. (Correct me if I am wrong).

Nope, I agree with you.

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Old 02-04-2010, 03:37 PM
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I think when the manufacturers discover how 'luke warm' their 3d tv sales are, they will go ahead and begin to release 3d tvs (without glasses). I think we'll start to see them sooner, rather than later, (2016-2017). Thats when 3d will go 'mass market'.

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Old 02-04-2010, 06:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

How the hell would the CEO of IMAX know what will happen in the HDTV consumer market in 2013? What qualifies him to make such forecasts.

I would think he's been having tons of conversations with TV manufacturers over the past year (e.g., to influence manufacturers so that IMAX is well-positioned regarding any 3D standards, with respect to protection of digital content, specifically with Sony regarding their 3D network joint venture, etc. etc.), and I would think those conversations would quite naturally include information about 3D HDTV sales projections.

I'm actually not sure there are too many people who would be in a better position than him to comment on the HDTV consumer market in 2013.

Doesn't mean he's not a shill, of course.
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Old 02-04-2010, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NetGod View Post

I think when the manufacturers discover how 'luke warm' their 3d tv sales are, they will go ahead and begin to release 3d tvs (without glasses). I think we'll start to see them sooner, rather than later, (2016-2017). Thats when 3d will go 'mass market'.

You just don't know how far away 3D TV without glasses is. I'm guessing at least 15 years based on what I saw at CES. They were showing 3D without glasses on screens where the picture is divided up into sections and each section was showing a slightly different angle of the same source and it was viewable from various angles due to the lenticular lens on the screen. The problems with it are imeanse. If your between angles, then you see a blurry mess. Even if your at a good angle, the resolution is low(because the screen is divided into sections showing the same content), and therefore it's not at all compatible with current HDTV. The shuttered glasses technology is totally backward compatible. An upcoming 3D TV will be able to display normal HDTV probably better than current sets. Perhaps there will be some sort of hologram 3D available in the future, but it also won't be compatible with what we have now.
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Old 02-05-2010, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by fire407 View Post

You just don't know how far away 3D TV without glasses is. I'm guessing at least 15 years based on what I saw at CES. They were showing 3D without glasses on screens where the picture is divided up into sections and each section was showing a slightly different angle of the same source and it was viewable from various angles due to the lenticular lens on the screen. The problems with it are imeanse. If your between angles, then you see a blurry mess. Even if your at a good angle, the resolution is low(because the screen is divided into sections showing the same content), and therefore it's not at all compatible with current HDTV. The shuttered glasses technology is totally backward compatible. An upcoming 3D TV will be able to display normal HDTV probably better than current sets. Perhaps there will be some sort of hologram 3D available in the future, but it also won't be compatible with what we have now.

15 years? I really hope your wrong about that one.
(I'ma cling to my 2015-2016 guess)

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Old 02-05-2010, 07:57 AM
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I agree that by 2013, moderate to high quality new TVs will all be 3D capable. Manufacturers will not want to support different chipsets, with and without 3D processing.

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Old 02-26-2010, 02:50 PM
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Sure, why wouldn't 3D come with every good new TV in 2013? It will be cheap to implement. Now, the content will be not so common.

Look at HD audio. Most new receivers have it implemented, but still not very many Blu Ray discs use it, and not a single broadcast.
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Old 02-27-2010, 03:58 AM
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I posted the following on another thread but since it goes a long way in rebutting the proclamation that 3D would be standard by 2013 I thought I would pass it along:

Don't waste your money selling your nearly brand new high-def 2D equipment (you will lose money) and buying new "3D" equipment (it will cost you MORE MONEY, so you would lose twice).

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar, has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival (a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

At this stage of the game stay; away from 3D for home use like the plague!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My advice: Relax and enjoy your existing 1080p/1.3a HDMI high-def 2D equipment. Save your money, think LONG-TERM and enjoy your existing new/nearly brand new equipment (given the economy, you want it to last a good 5 to 8 years).

Regarding 3D =

While I enjoyed the 3D technology used in Avatar, like millions of other consumers in America and around the world who have spent BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS of dollars recently upgrading our entire HD A/V theater systems so that they now meet the 1080p/1.3HDMI HD standard, I refuse to trash-can my new ONKYO PR-SC5507p pre-pro or our SONY BDP S550 Blu-ray player or SONY VPL-VW60 projector so that "the powers that be" can sell me UNPROVEN, NO SINGLE STANDARD, 3D technology that will need an entirely new UNPROVEN 1.4 HDMI format in order to view 3D content rendering nearly everything we own that is 1.3 HDMI useless.

I will let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. I will let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3 HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

As for "3DTV"; just look at the existing poor "quality" of HD programming we are being fed by the likes of Comcast, DISH and Direct TV, etc. Many of the HD NFL play off games just broadcast were not sharp or crisp/very poor and appeared to be 720p at best. People are not going to spend billions of dollars on new 3DTV's while HD broadcasters continually feed them lousy HD signals.

Is 3D cool? Yes, from a technological standpoint, Avatar in 3D is a game changer for theaters. However, ONCE A STANDARD IS FINALLY AGREED UPON (after this next bloody 3D "format war" is finally over which could take another decade), it will cost tens of thousands of dollars (if not more) to replace nearly all of a families existing AV equipment in order to even remotely begin to bring the quality of that 3D theater experience to the average persons home theater and unless people have their heads in the sand, we are in the midst of one of the severest economic downturns since the Great Depression.

As for me; someone feel free to contact me in about ten - fifteen years when the PROVEN, ONE-STANDARD, GLASS-LESS 3D is finally available at a reasonable price. Until then I will sit the 3D, 1.4abcd (1. whatever) HDMI format war out and be content and enjoy the incredible HD system I already have which is bought and paid for.

I can wait 10 - 15 years for this whole 3D mess to finally shake out because I and multitudes of AVS members are tired of being used as beta testers for an industry that continues to treat us like we are nothing but walking dollar signs that can be manipulated into throwing away our gear every 2-3 years for their latest fad. And yes, at this point 3D is just a fad.

In regard to replacing existing A/V gear simply in order to accommodate 3D:

Will I replace my PJ within 5-10 years? Probably, IF the improvement is substantially better than what I have now, which it isn't (much higher lumens, much sharper picture, LED lit, etc..., otherwise what is the point?) and I do not have to mortgage my house to do it. But I refuse to be led around by the nose and manipulated into blowing out perfectly outstanding A/V gear and becoming their free 3D beta tester by the latest A/V 3D FAD to come along.

One more thing; if anyone here on AVS thinks they are going to even begin to have/reproduce the same 3D visual experience viewing AVATAR in your existing home theater that you had at the multi million dollar IMAX 3D theater in the near future or in the future without spending thousands, upon thousands of dollars, “upgrading” their equipment, there is a bridge in Brookline I can sell you real cheap.

As I said above: someone feel free to call me in 10 to 15 years when GLASSLESS 3D is fully developed and fully comes into it's own and those nasty "bugs" have been worked out and it is available at a reasonable price. Until then, have fun all you "early adopter, beta testing, Guinea Pigs". But before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many of you lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of you suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been ”pawned once again” looking at all of their formerly “new and improved”, “latest 3D technology” equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the “electronics powers that be” will decide upon for you to watch 3D… Why? “All the better to sell you stuff my dear.” There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam “videophile” 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune… this is already taking place with some 3D “super glasses” being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war… which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized… etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

“I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.”
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Old 02-27-2010, 05:04 AM
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Interesting. I'll bookmark this thread and check it February 27,2014. I upgraded my 7 year old Mit's CRT-RP to a 58V10 December 2009. 3D sounds good, it'll be years of early adoption pain imo.

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Old 02-27-2010, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jmouse007 View Post

... the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY...

I don't think it will take that long for prices to come down and for us non-early adopters to start buying in, for two reasons. One has been mentioned above: it's not going to cost manufacturers that much more to produce 3D-ready sets for their higher end models, it might even cost them more to keep making non-3D sets. And two, the mass buy-in can't take 8-10 years, because manufacturers are counting on 3D to carry them out of their slump. They're in the slump now -- 8 years from now won't do. They'll have to do whatever it takes to move lots of the new sets soon.

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