Exec: Mass 3D TV adoption to be slow - AVS Forum
3D Source Components > Exec: Mass 3D TV adoption to be slow
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 07:40 PM 03-31-2010
Exec: Mass 3D TV adoption to be slow

Quote:


3D on TV is a product for early adopters and will only slowly become a mass-market offering, with event-type content -- particularly sports, concerts and select movies -- being the key driver of usage and adoption, according to a top Comcast executive.

But thanks to CES and "Avatar," 3D TV has gotten a lot of buzz, and it has shown early promise, said Derek Harrar, senior vp and GM of video and entertainment services at the cable giant, on Wednesday.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...8d4005f10a7e85

Steve S's Avatar Steve S 09:47 PM 04-01-2010
The same thing was said about color tv--and was true for about 10 years.
Ken H's Avatar Ken H 10:06 PM 04-01-2010
Not much of a surprise.
trumperZ06's Avatar trumperZ06 08:48 AM 04-02-2010
When Color TV first arrived, my Dad bought a Packer Bell.

My Mon would constantly switch channels to watch...

Commericals that were in color.

Boy did Dad hate that.

Sports will likely be the flood gate...

bringing 3D TV into your living room.
JOHNnDENVER's Avatar JOHNnDENVER 08:52 AM 04-02-2010
I think people are just two hung up on the mass adoption thing....

Nothing wrong with a cool niche product that gives enjoyment.
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 09:27 AM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOHNnDENVER View Post

I think people are just two hung up on the mass adoption thing....

Nothing wrong with a cool niche product that gives enjoyment.

I agree - if after 5 to 7 years, if 3DTV can reach 15% to 20% penetration in USA HH's I would consider that a success - that is people actually watching 3D content.
jbug's Avatar jbug 12:03 PM 04-02-2010
I was taking advantage of the nice weather the other day and was walking to BB. I met up with a female co-worker and told her about the 3D TVs and right away I could tell that she had been poisoned by someone with the same negative stuff you find here.

She was saying how they had to come up with some new stuff to make people buy new TVs and the whole deal about sitting aroung the house wearing glasses. As I was listening, it sounded like she rehearsed the whole response. I started to drop the subject but did ask her if she was in business and wanted to stay in business would she be looking for new reasons for potential customers to buy her products. I also mentioned how good 3D is doing in theaters and with people taking to it very well why shouldn't CEMs try to give people that same experience at home. It's very interesting when you get those kinds of reactions.
GregLee's Avatar GregLee 01:10 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOHNnDENVER View Post

Nothing wrong with a cool niche product that gives enjoyment.

There is something wrong with a niche product. I want 3D to be very popular so that there is intense competition on price and quality, and so that TV advertisers lose interest in sponsoring 2D programming.
Steve S's Avatar Steve S 03:36 PM 04-02-2010
^^^the same tv advertisers that won't pop for HD commercials?
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 04:01 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregLee View Post

There is something wrong with a niche product. I want 3D to be very popular so that there is intense competition on price and quality, and so that TV advertisers lose interest in sponsoring 2D programming.

The price competition will come just from the fact that 3DTVs are HDTV's. It's the price of the glasses where competition needs to happen
fire407's Avatar fire407 04:07 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

The price competition will come just from the fact that 3DTVs are HDTV's. It's the price of the glasses where competition needs to happen

Right. And eventually it will be HDTVs are 3DTVs, once the tech is added to even the cheapest sets.
Joseph Clark's Avatar Joseph Clark 06:21 PM 04-02-2010
People who cite history as a reason 3D TV won't take off are ignoring, for one thing, how cheap it is to add 3D to new HDTVs. Never before in history has there been such a confluence of elements for 3D's success - all because of how cheap it is to change and add to our digital standards, while maintaining a remarkable degree of compatibility with what we already have. Take, for instance, the fact that 3D discs will play back in 2D in older Blu-ray players. How great is that? No need for double inventories on the shelves. One size fits all. Not that there aren't likely to be some glitches here and there, but it showed remarkable foresight to be able to introduce MVC encoded discs without "breaking" their 2D playback on older players. People who see a conspiracy in this move to 3D are demonstrating their ignorance of the natural (if surprisingly rapid) growth of digital technology. Credit also a few visionary people in the movie industry for accelerating the growth of 3D even more - Jeffrey Katzenberg and James Cameron.

As Lee says, once the price of the glasses goes down, there will be little impediment to 3D steamrolling ahead.
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 06:58 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph Clark View Post

People who cite history as a reason 3D TV won't take off are ignoring, for one thing, how cheap it is to add 3D to new HDTVs. Never before in history has there been such a confluence of elements for 3D's success - all because of how cheap it is to change and add to our digital standards, while maintaining a remarkable degree of compatibility with what we already have. Take, for instance, the fact that 3D discs will play back in 2D in older 3D Blu-ray players. How great is that? No need for double inventories on the shelves. One size fits all. Not that there aren't likely to be some glitches here and there, but it showed remarkable foresight to be able to introduce MVC encoded discs without "breaking" their 2D playback on older players. People who see a conspiracy in this move to 3D are demonstrating their ignorance of the natural (if surprisingly rapid) growth of digital technology. Credit also a few visionary people in the movie industry for accelerating the growth of 3D even more - Jeffrey Katzenberg and James Cameron.

As Lee says, once the price of the glasses goes down, there will be little impediment to 3D steamrolling ahead.

Good post Joseph.

IMO, the sweet spot for 3D ASG pricing will be $50. And I don't expect to see that price point hit till late 2011 or 2012.

And don't forget to offer kudos to Panasonic for all of their efforts in creating S3D for consumers.
Joseph Clark's Avatar Joseph Clark 07:22 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Good post Joseph.

IMO, the sweet spot for 3D ASG pricing will be $50. And I don't expect to see that price point hit till late 2011 or 2012.

And don't forget to offer kudos to Panasonic for all of their efforts in creating S3D for consumers.

I'm ecstatic about the speed at which the manufacturers are introducing 3D. Every time I hear someone spout off about how "they" just want to figure out a way to take our money, I have to restrain myself. Calling someone a short-sighted, Luddite ignoramus probably isn't going to create new 3D converts. And I might not get invited to Thanksgiving dinner any more.

Come to think of it, though, that could be a good thing. Hmmm...
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 07:29 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph Clark View Post

I'm ecstatic about the speed at which the manufacturers are introducing 3D. Every time I hear someone spout off about how "they" just want to figure out a way to take our money, I have to restrain myself. Calling someone a short-sighted, Luddite ignoramus probably isn't going to create new 3D converts. And I might not get invited to Thanksgiving dinner any more.

Come to think of it, though, that could be a good thing. Hmmm...

My favorite; "I hate 3D" excuses lately are . . .

"You have to wear those goofy glasses."

"You/I will look like a dork wearing those glasses to watch TV."

.......................
Quetzalcoatl's Avatar Quetzalcoatl 09:15 PM 04-02-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

IMO, the sweet spot for 3D ASG pricing will be $50. And I don't expect to see that price point hit till late 2011 or 2012.

I think this needs to be a pair that will work on any of the TV's not just one brand of sets as well.
mark haflich's Avatar mark haflich 06:19 AM 04-03-2010
The whole thing is doomed because of porn.

Can you imagine a young couple watching a 3D porn movie to spice things up, all of a sudden they disrobe each other. Honey leave my glasses on, OK? I wonder how many fights that might start.

Also glasses better come with some sort of restraining strap so they can`t fall off during a strenuous workout. 3D Goggles?
imjay's Avatar imjay 07:35 PM 04-08-2010
There is not going to be a 7 to 10 yr lag for 3D content to arrive - in fact, it is arriving as I type - I was surprised that Comcast is broadcasting The Masters in 3D.

Obviously some 2D produced content can be re-processed as 3D. I went to see Clash of the Titans which I understand was originally shot/post produced as 2D but re-processed to take advantage of the hot market for 3D movies.

While the 3D effect was not as smooth nor as clear as Avatar it was still a lot of fun to watch and certainly superior to the 2D version.

Heck, even the cheesy movies arriving - like Piranha 3D - will be fun to watch and will draw audiences willing to pay the extra 3 bucks for the 3D ticket.

I personally think that the ticket buyers are showing at commercial theaters that 3D is HOT and getting HOTTER and people want it in their homes and don't give a hoot if they have to wear glasses to have multi-dimensional video. This Christmas EVERYONE will want to buy a 3D ready TV and the prices will be as affordable as the old model 2D sets.
HOORAY!!!!!!!
slowbiscuit 08:35 AM 04-10-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

My favorite; "I hate 3D" excuses lately are . . .

"You have to wear those goofy glasses."

Regardless of whether you think this is an 'excuse', it is the #1 reason why 3D TV shows and events will be nothing more than a niche. Yes, it will be included by default on all TVs, but people aren't going to wear glasses to watch stuff all the time.
Lee Stewart's Avatar Lee Stewart 11:01 AM 04-10-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by slowbiscuit View Post

Regardless of whether you think this is an 'excuse', it is the #1 reason why 3D TV shows and events will be nothing more than a niche. Yes, it will be included by default on all TVs, but people aren't going to wear glasses to watch stuff all the time.

No need to. 3D content isn't going to be available; "all the time."
Joel802's Avatar Joel802 02:13 PM 04-10-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

My favorite; "I hate 3D" excuses lately are . . .

"You have to wear those goofy glasses."

"You/I will look like a dork wearing those glasses to watch TV."

.......................

Yeah the 6th grade dance mentality cracks me up too. Its not like you will wear the glasses in public. You will be watching 3d in the comfort of your home. I personally think it adds an element of fun, no different than picking up a video game controller or putting your old ratty football jersey to root for your team. I mean you can't possibly look more ridiculous than swinging a Wii mote around. Oh well they are entitled to their feelings.

Cheers
GregLee's Avatar GregLee 03:28 PM 04-10-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joel802 View Post

Yeah the 6th grade dance mentality cracks me up too. Its not like you will wear the glasses in public.

But even if no one else sees you, you will know you look like a dork.

I am, myself, still trying to adjust to 21st century men's acquiring fashion sense. I do think it's happened, though. I recall a web-conversation on aviator-style sun glasses, which the young males wrote they would never be caught dead in.

Gotta move with the times.
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