Originally Posted by mbrennem
So by your logic (and even ignoring 3D) I guess sales of TVs in general are going to tank now because everyone has a new TV and they will keep it for 10 years??
That is not likely. Obviously there are people buying plenty of new TVs every year, otherwise the TV industry would collapse. If 3D TVs are only a small premium over a 2D TV, why wouldn't people buy one when they are already buying a new TV? They don't have to use the 3D capability unless they want to, but at least their new TV will have a future compatibility with 3D if they choose to try it. I don't think anyone is suggesting that everybody will run out and buy a new 3D TV to replace their current model, but it will happen in due time.
I would bet that by late 2011 all of the major manufacturers (Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, etc) new TV lines will be 3D capable. So people will have no choice but to buy 3D capable TVs, unless they purchase older models that are still in stock (or budget brands that lag behind the major manufacturers).
Whether or not people choose to use the 3D capability is an entirely different question, and the jury is still out on that question.
Actually, now you are talking about the Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods and a measurement of the voracity of the demand.
Of course there will always be demand for televisions, and of course this demand is in part created by advancements in technology. The question is at which points does this demand speed and cool. There are models that are used to measure this but there are so many factors that come into play we would be wasting our time trying to discuss this issue.
I stand by a 10 year period. Consumer Electronics are a very elastic industry and as a matter of fact sales are down. Primarily as a function of the current economy but I hypothesize that we will continue to have weak demand even as unemployment figures begin to improve.
Similarly we have an automobile industry, yes? The average consumer rarely buys new cars every few years, but the industry does not implode.
3D, in my opinion, aint gonna make it. Again, just my opinion. (you have to admit those glasses really are lame)
Last, we have not even accounted for the large percentage of people who are Stereo Blind.