What happens to early adopters if Joe Public says no thanks? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 123 Old 03-21-2010, 10:41 PM - Thread Starter
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When I think about this whole 3D thing, I'm a bit concerned about buying into it, because the general public at large could easily say no thanks, and then where would all the 3D content come from (other than games)? For example, all these huge companies are going to start releasing official 3D Blu Ray versions of their movies, and they are going to expect it to eventually become a decent sized market.... right? Otherwise, why would they bother with the trouble of it all? Well, what if come late 2011, it's painfully obvious that the average Joe Schmo has decided that he has ZERO interest in 3D, and without those everyday consumers, 3D in the home becomes a colossal failure. Then what?

As someone that might jump on the bandwagon early, this is something to consider. On the one hand, if consumers reject the 3D concept, it would mean that I would likely be able to get a 3D display for much cheaper than these huge premiums that Samsung and everybody are shooting for, but what good would it be if the failure also means that 3D Blu Ray is basically dead on arrival, and the big companies stop releasing the movies in that format? I honestly could conceive of a situation in which there are like 76 3D movies that get released, but then basically the flow slows to a trickle, and all the major studios simply stop releasing movies, and the only thing we get is MegaShark vs. Giant Octopus in 3D from some random studio.

Also, if consumers soundly reject 3D displays, it would mean that ESPN 3D and any of the other broadcasted 3D would basically dry up as well. The only thing that would likely survive is video games. This isn't too horrible for me, because I'm actually a gamer and could still get some 3D enjoyment out of it that way, but I know there are many others that have zero interest in video gaming, and if 3D BD's and broadcast 3D disappears, it would be a huge blow. I guess in regards to early adopters, this kind of situation just comes with the territory, but these puppies are EXPENSIVE!
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post #2 of 123 Old 03-21-2010, 10:45 PM
 
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Since when does Joe Public buy into a brand new format in it's second year?

Here we are 11 years after HDTV's became available and we are at only 50% of USA households with an HDTV.

11 years later and not all channels are available in HD.

11 years later and not even all ads are in HD.

You are expecting WAY too much.
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post #3 of 123 Old 03-21-2010, 11:04 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Since when does Joe Public buy into a brand new format in it's second year?

Here we are 11 years after HDTV's became available and we are at only 50% of USA households with an HDTV.

11 years later and not all channels are available in HD.

11 years later and not even all ads are in HD.

You are expecting WAY too much.

I know what you mean, but I'm not actually talking about Joe Sixpack. I'm talking about Joe Public, I'm talking about the guy that likes new tech like Apple ipods and stuff like that, and likes to keep relatively recent with their stuff, but isn't currently aware of 3Dtv's or 3D Blu Ray or 3D anything at the home whatsoever, and when is first introduced to it, totally rejects it. I'm just saying that at a certain point, if the people behind ESPN 3D, and the people making decisions at the big studios don't see some traction by late 2011 (18 months from now), then there could be some serious problems. When I'm talking about "traction", I'm not talking about people adopting 3D in droves, I'm talking about something that will show up on their sales charts that more and more people are getting 3D Blu Ray players, and starting to buy disks and rent disks, etc, etc. Something that shows that it's starting to make somewhat of an upward climb. If the public at large (the public with some decent disposable income) totally rejects 3D in the home, then the 3D Blu Ray sales, and the number of rentals will just plateau at a certain point, and fall off a cliff, and then at a certain point, these companies could decide to just pull the plug and cut their losses. 3D would still survive, but it would be beyond niche.
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post #4 of 123 Old 03-21-2010, 11:28 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

I know what you mean, but I'm not actually talking about Joe Sixpack. I'm talking about Joe Public, I'm talking about the guy that likes new tech like Apple ipods and stuff like that, and likes to keep relatively recent with their stuff, but isn't currently aware of 3Dtv's or 3D Blu Ray or 3D anything at the home whatsoever, and when is first introduced to it, totally rejects it. I'm just saying that at a certain point, if the people behind ESPN 3D, and the people making decisions at the big studios don't see some traction by late 2011 (18 months from now), then there could be some serious problems. When I'm talking about "traction", I'm not talking about people adopting 3D in droves, I'm talking about something that will show up on their sales charts that more and more people are getting 3D Blu Ray players, and starting to buy disks and rent disks, etc, etc. Something that shows that it's starting to make somewhat of an upward climb. If the public at large (the public with some decent disposable income) totally rejects 3D in the home, then the 3D Blu Ray sales, and the number of rentals will just plateau at a certain point, and fall off a cliff, and then at a certain point, these companies could decide to just pull the plug and cut their losses. 3D would still survive, but it would be beyond niche.

3D is BIG in the theaters. Why would it not trickle down to consumer homes? If people like 3D in the theaters they will surely like 3D in their homes. A good analogy would be multichannel audio. First appeared in theaters, now in millions and millions of homes.

Is any of your speculation based on the old; "3D has come and gone and come and gone a number of times. It's come again . . . it will be gone again soon." Is that driving your thought process?

One thing the public has not been exposed to is 3D sporting events. Sure millions saw Avatar in 3D, but the only way you could have seen a live 3D sporting event is if you went to a theater and saw it there. Those few that have, rave about it. They say it is better than 3D movies . . . . MUCH better.
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post #5 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 03:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

I know what you mean, but I'm not actually talking about Joe Sixpack. I'm talking about Joe Public, I'm talking about the guy that likes new tech like Apple ipods and stuff like that, and likes to keep relatively recent with their stuff, but isn't currently aware of 3Dtv's or 3D Blu Ray or 3D anything at the home whatsoever, and when is first introduced to it, totally rejects it. I'm just saying that at a certain point, if the people behind ESPN 3D, and the people making decisions at the big studios don't see some traction by late 2011 (18 months from now), then there could be some serious problems. When I'm talking about "traction", I'm not talking about people adopting 3D in droves, I'm talking about something that will show up on their sales charts that more and more people are getting 3D Blu Ray players, and starting to buy disks and rent disks, etc, etc. Something that shows that it's starting to make somewhat of an upward climb. If the public at large (the public with some decent disposable income) totally rejects 3D in the home, then the 3D Blu Ray sales, and the number of rentals will just plateau at a certain point, and fall off a cliff, and then at a certain point, these companies could decide to just pull the plug and cut their losses. 3D would still survive, but it would be beyond niche.

By your standards, Blu-ray is a failure. You probably think that the plug should have been pulled on Blu-ray because Joe Public rejected it the first couple of years. It takes time for some things to catch on, and Blu-ray is still in an uphill fight since people are using VOD more and more. 3D Blu-ray might be the thing that gets Blu-ray in more homes. Also, even if Blu-ray were to go away(which I don't think it will), there will still be 3D channels, and like Lee said, 3D sports are going to be very popular.
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post #6 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 06:13 AM
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If 3D doesn't catch on, the majority of your investment is still intact, as the HDTV works regardless. Your loss is limited to the glasses, emitter, and incremental difference in cost between a 3D HDTV and a non-3D HDTV. Total probably less than $500. If that seems like too much to risk, then wait it out until you feel more comfortable.

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post #7 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 06:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

Also, if consumers soundly reject 3D displays, it would mean that ESPN 3D and any of the other broadcasted 3D would basically dry up as well. The only thing that would likely survive is video games.

Don't forget 2D->3D conversion -- they can't take that away from you. And since there is little manufacturing expense involved, it could get better, even if 3D becomes a niche market.

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post #8 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 06:46 AM
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The 3D functionality in top of the line HDTVs this year and in middloe middle of the line models in two years. Since these TV models also have better 2D PQ and other features such a internet connectios etc. Joe Public will not be paying any more for 3D on his TV unless he has to purchase an emitter separatly. Also the capability to play FullHD 3D Blu-Ray disk will become standard in all Blu-Ray players with two years.
Provided that the new 3D BR disks are easily available from the disk rental firms and are played over the 3D TV channels then a potentialy high retail price for purchasing them will not be an issue.
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post #9 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 07:19 AM
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It's already lost most of it's luster to me and I've spent time auditioning what I can.

When they build a TV that uses the screen as its shutter glasses (if that's even possible) I will get excited. As of now.....meh.

But I suspect I'm not Joe Sixpack or Joe Public. More like Joe Geek.

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post #10 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 07:35 AM
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I don't know too many people who want to sit around at home with the glasses on.

They all but force you to see the 3-D version in the theaters, at least around here, usually only one screen shows the 2-D versions.
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post #11 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 08:08 AM
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3D at home has already been a niche for quite a while and making some money. I think it could remain niche for a few years in the home and still be profitable for content and CE manuafactuers.
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post #12 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 08:42 AM
 
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Originally Posted by JOHNnDENVER View Post

3D at home has already been a niche for quite a while and making some money. I think it could remain niche for a few years in the home and still be profitable for content and CE manuafactuers.

LOL - it could be VERY profitable for CEM's - the 3D glasses
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post #13 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 03:37 PM
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I think it's unwise to ignore the PS3 factor in this scenario. There are millions of "Joe Publics" that already own these. The victory of BD over HD-DVD, indeed the continued existence of any HD disc format at all is largely due to the PS3's high installed base.

3D gaming will sell a lot of 3D sets to the PS3 crowd, especially as prices of sets come down. The UN55C7000 at full bore retail is $200 cheaper than the B7000 was at intro and it's not inconcievable that set prices will decline further before any nails need be driven into the 3D coffin.

3D sports channels are already being announced by cable and satellite companies with no hardware swap out required, sports drove HDTV sales and could easily do the same for 3D.

Even if 3D never catches on with Joe Public there have been successful niche formats in the past--i.e. laserdisc which remained viable as a somewhat expensive niche product for nearly 20 years until supplanted by dvd.

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post #14 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 03:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Steve S View Post

I think it's unwise to ignore the PS3 factor in this scenario. There are millions of "Joe Publics" that already own these. The victory of BD over HD-DVD, indeed the continued existence of any HD disc format at all is largely due to the PS3's high installed base.

3D gaming will sell a lot of 3D sets to the PS3 crowd, especially as prices of sets come down. The UN55C7000 at full bore retail is $200 cheaper than the B7000 was at intro and it's not inconcievable that set prices will decline further before any nails need be driven into the 3D coffin.

3D sports channels are already being announced by cable and satellite companies with no hardware swap out required, sports drove HDTV sales and could easily do the same for 3D.

Even if 3D never catches on with Joe Public there have been successful niche formats in the past--i.e. laserdisc which remained viable as a somewhat expensive niche product for nearly 20 years until supplanted by dvd.

According to the HDGuru, there are some 4 million 3D ready DLP RPTV's in consumers homes. That is substantially more that could upgrade to 3D (just need the converter, the emitter and the glasses for SAT and CBL 3D and either a PS3 or a 3D BD player) then there ever were when HDTV was introduced back in late 1998, early 1999.
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post #15 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 09:33 PM
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The answer to your question is simple = you are screwed... Think the HD DVD fiasco only on steroids.

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar and Alice has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival; a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

Let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. Let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3a HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

Before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many people lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of the suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been ”pawned once again” looking at all of their formerly “new and improved”, “latest 3D technology” equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the “electronics powers that be” will decide upon for you to watch 3D… Why? “All the better to sell you stuff my dear.” There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam “videophile” 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune… this is already taking place with some 3D “super glasses” being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war… which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized… etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D, IF IT IS EVERN AROUND.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

“I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.”
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post #16 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 09:53 PM - Thread Starter
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dang.... rant much?


Yeah, all I can say is that I'm actually very much looking forward to the whole 3D thing, but at the same time, I could easily see it being a complete and total bust from a widespread adoption standpoint. Hopefully all the major players involved will be willing to stick by 3D in the early years to put enough content together to actually tempt people. I'm just wondering if the movie studios will really be that patient, and will they really release enough 3D movies on a regular basis to even make it viable, if their monthly sales numbers are pathetic. The TV's are going to sell by accident, so I'm not worried about the TV numbers. I'm worried about the people buying the TV's, not wanting to pay $600 to get the glasses for a family of four to watch a damn movie. Plus a $400 3D BD player. Yes, I know a PS3 will work, but lets assume these people don't have a PS3..

Anyways, I just think a huge number of people could have zero interest in this thing, and it could totally crash and burn. I'm hoping this isn't the case, I kinda want to see how this 3D thing works out. I really want a 3D projector, and eventually a 3D plasma for my living room. I'm a realist though... so I have to consider the possibilities...
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post #17 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 10:14 PM
 
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The answer to your question is simple = you are screwed... Think the HD DVD fiasco only on steroids.

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar and Alice has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

A fad? In 2009, 3D earned $1B at the box office and Avatar had little to do with that because it was released so late in the year.

You think that ESPN, Discovery, DirecTV, Comcast and others would back a fad?

Yes 3D has been born for consumers home. It has a better "birthing" then HDTV did in late 1998 and early 1999.

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The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

Do you do any research before you present your opinion? There is an approx 25% premium for 3DTV's over comparible HDTV's. You want to compare that to the premium in 1999 for an HDTV over a SDTV? In the demo's that have been show in stores - 3D works just as it does in theaters. 3D is the same as HD. There is good 3D/HD and there is bad 3D/HD. You think every BD released has a 5 star rating for PQ?

Many of the "complaints" are not with 3D but the HDTV's themselves. And there is a compromise here. We get Full HD per eye (3D BD) - we have to have active shutter glasses. it also allows CBL and SAT to ramp up 3D content quickly because it is compatible with their delivery systems albiet at half HD sper eye.n Hmmm ...half HD. Isn't 720P half HD? looks pretty good to me.

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This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Why do I get the feeling that you are not a proponent of 3D?

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Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival; a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

LOL! YOU can wait 8 to 15 years. I won't. I don't even know if i will be alive in 15 years. I am almost 59.

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Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

There's that feel again.

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Let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. Let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

So let me ask you this. If I look back through your post history - I should find a post similiar to this one where you are telling people they are suckers for buying HDMI 1.3 receivers that will decode the HD audio formats - new technology - unproven - because 1.3 was unproven and that they should stay with DD5.1 or DTS. Right? Ever hear the word; "Luddite" before?

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The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

There is NO 3D format war. There are multiple 3D formats JUST LIKE there are multiple HDTV formats and multiple HD audio formats.

Quote:


Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3a HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

So everyone with 1.3 receivers has a problem? Is that right?

Quote:


Before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many people lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of the suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

Once again there is NO 3D format war. The only thing that would change the landscpe of 3D today is if Autostereoscopic 3D displays (glasses free 3D) became a reality overnite. I got a better chance of winning the lottery then that happening.

High drama is no substitution for facts.

Quote:


I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been ”pawned once again” looking at all of their formerly “new and improved”, “latest 3D technology” equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

So here we are at AVS, probably the most informed and knowledge people involved in HD and 3D and all of a sudden, mass hysteria strikes and everyone goes stupid. Just a minute . . .

Quote:


They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the “electronics powers that be” will decide upon for you to watch 3D… Why? “All the better to sell you stuff my dear.” There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam “videophile” 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune… this is already taking place with some 3D “super glasses” being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

Well, some are on the never ending quest to upgrade and better their equipment. And you think so little of them.

Quote:


As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war… which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized… etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D, IF IT IS EVERN AROUND.

OK - you don't want 3D. And there are probably others who also don't want it. But then again, there will be those who do want 3D.

You know what really pisses me off? When someone tells ME how to spend MY money.

Quote:


After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

“I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.”

Oh great! I am going to see this post in other forums. How wondeful.
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post #18 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 10:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jmouse007 View Post

The answer to your question is simple = you are screwed... Think the HD DVD fiasco only on steroids.

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar and Alice has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival; a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

Let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. Let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3a HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

Before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many people lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of the suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been pawned once again looking at all of their formerly new and improved, latest 3D technology equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the electronics powers that be will decide upon for you to watch 3D Why? All the better to sell you stuff my dear. There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam videophile 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune this is already taking place with some 3D super glasses being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D, IF IT IS EVERN AROUND.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.

You've posted this same interminable rant in several threads. Sorta reminds me of the VHS diehards back in '98 ranting against dvd and them newfangled widescreen tvs. Give it a rest.

Steve S.
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post #19 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 11:48 PM
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I think Jmouse007 must have had a bad 3D experience, or maybe he was an early adopter of some other technology and felt he got burned when it fizzled. That's too bad. I think Ken H said it well, if you're not comfortable with the $500 or so extra investment to have 3D capability in your system, then sit this one out.

Hopefully folks will go into this with their eyes open (pun intended) knowing that as early adopters we are pioneers blazing a path through the 3D wilderness. And yes, sometimes pioneers get eaten by the wolves.

With the demonstrations I've already seen I feel this has real potential and will vote accordingly with my pocket book. I see a new 3D plasma in my future.

Of course, as with all new technology there will be improvements, and I look forward to seeing the glasses-free 3D displays I understand are already being developed, but until then I'll happily enjoy what our current technology has to offer. If it's only a few movies, a smattering of live sporting events, and some cool 3D games, so be it..... that's enough for me to spend a few dollars more at the moment.
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post #20 of 123 Old 03-22-2010, 11:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

3D is BIG in the theaters. Why would it not trickle down to consumer homes? If people like 3D in the theaters they will surely like 3D in their homes. A good analogy would be multichannel audio. First appeared in theaters, now in millions and millions of homes.

Multichannel audio is better in the home than in theaters, but 3D won't be as immersive because the screen is so small. There's certainly a lot of money going into consumer 3D right now, but I'm not sure if it's filling a need or simply a make-work project for those that think they have nothing better to do. Time, of course, will tell.
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post #21 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 01:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HokeySmoke View Post

. . . but 3D won't be as immersive because the screen is so small. . .

There are multiple reputable econometric forecasts of the CE AV sector that 'predict' the primary family tv being in the 100" to 200" class shortly after 2020, in order to accommodate SHV/UHDTV1 broadcasting (but probably not UHDTV2) - at least in Europe and Japan. Even if the demand for over 100" sets is not universal, it's likely 80" to 120" sets will be reasonably priced . . . at least as so defined by the dedicated 3D tv aficionado...

Figure on 'size-creep' between now and 2020...

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post #22 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 01:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Jmouse007 View Post

The answer to your question is simple = you are screwed... Think the HD DVD fiasco only on steroids.

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar and Alice has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival; a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

Let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. Let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3a HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

Before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many people lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of the suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been pawned once again looking at all of their formerly new and improved, latest 3D technology equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the electronics powers that be will decide upon for you to watch 3D Why? All the better to sell you stuff my dear. There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam videophile 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune this is already taking place with some 3D super glasses being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D, IF IT IS EVERN AROUND.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.

That was either one of the worst posts I have ever seen on here, or the most humorous. 3D has been around a long time, 3D gaming has been around for quite a few years. I just don't see the point of your thread at all. If you want it fine, if you don't, fine as well. Saying those that setup 3D systems are out of their minds could only come from somebody that is well, out of their mind.

Remember, 3D, even on a 3D display or even a 3D Bluray player is still optional. Anybody that sets up a 3D system and gets enjoyment from it, has gotten their money's worth.
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post #23 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 01:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HokeySmoke View Post

Multichannel audio is better in the home than in theaters, but 3D won't be as immersive because the screen is so small. There's certainly a lot of money going into consumer 3D right now, but I'm not sure if it's filling a need or simply a make-work project for those that think they have nothing better to do. Time, of course, will tell.

You assume a small screen because the first two displays were relatively small? I plan to do it in my theater on a 9' screen this year by the way.
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post #24 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 03:36 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HokeySmoke View Post

Multichannel audio is better in the home than in theaters, but 3D won't be as immersive because the screen is so small. There's certainly a lot of money going into consumer 3D right now, but I'm not sure if it's filling a need or simply a make-work project for those that think they have nothing better to do. Time, of course, will tell.

That will be relative. Most people sit an average of about 10 feet away from their display in their home. And most of the 3DTVs are 50" or bigger.
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post #25 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 10:17 AM - Thread Starter
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If 3D doesn't catch on, the majority of your investment is still intact, as the HDTV works regardless. Your loss is limited to the glasses, emitter, and incremental difference in cost between a 3D HDTV and a non-3D HDTV. Total probably less than $500. If that seems like too much to risk, then wait it out until you feel more comfortable.


Well, the thing is, it's more than a $500 cost difference. Now, I know what you're going to say, that the TV's that currently have the "true" 3D feature are very high-end displays, and that they would only be about $500 less without the 3D support. This may be true. However, what about the people that aren't interested in getting the most high end displays?

If I was looking for a new TV for my living room right now, I'd be looking for a 50 inch 1080p Plasma. I could find a very good one for about $1200 or $1300. Obviously, it wouldn't be the most high-end model, and it wouldn't have all kinds of crazy features I could care less about (Youtube, Twitter, Facebook, etc, etc), but it would still be a high quality 50 inch display that would look very good with HD content.

So, if I only have to pay a $500 premium, then I should be able to find a 3D 1080p plasma for $1700 or $1800. Yet, the only thing we are seeing is stuff in the $2500 to $3000 ish range. Certainly, given enough time there will be a 50 inch 1080p 3D plasma for $1800, but will I have to wait a year?
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Well, the thing is, it's more than a $500 cost difference. Now, I know what you're going to say, that the TV's that currently have the "true" 3D feature are very high-end displays, and that they would only be about $500 less without the 3D support. This may be true. However, what about the people that aren't interested in getting the most high end displays?

If I was looking for a new TV for my living room right now, I'd be looking for a 50 inch 1080p Plasma. I could find a very good one for about $1200 or $1300. Obviously, it wouldn't be the most high-end model, and it wouldn't have all kinds of crazy features I could care less about (Youtube, Twitter, Facebook, etc, etc), but it would still be a high quality 50 inch display that would look very good with HD content.

So, if I only have to pay a $500 premium, then I should be able to find a 3D 1080p plasma for $1700 or $1800. Yet, the only thing we are seeing is stuff in the $2500 to $3000 ish range. Certainly, given enough time there will be a 50 inch 1080p 3D plasma for $1800, but will I have to wait a year?

Samsung 7000 3D PDP. MSRP = $1799 - ships 4/2/10

http://www.twice.com/article/449988-...sma_Prices.php
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post #27 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Samsung 7000 3D PDP. MSRP = $1799 - ships 4/2/10

Amazon's price is $2000. PN50C7000.

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post #28 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 11:37 AM
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Can someone mention one early adopter in Video the last 10 years that hasn't been "screwed" one way or another?

What is the definition?

Paying $15,000 for a Plasma that wouldn't sell for $1,000 5 years later?
Buying DVD player for tons of money or Bluray player for tons of money?

Buying HD-DVD that actually isn't a format for which newer movies comes out anymore? The loss on a HD-DVD player is way less than the loss of "value" on the Plasma?

A projector probably looses what 30% of its value every year (just throwing out a number).

How do you define screwed?????

You want to be an early adopter then realize that new developments are highly likely and the format may or may not be the winner. Meanwhile I don't spend more than a part of my disposable income on the AV stuff that I got and I understand that the technology is ever developing - heard of computers?

If 3D isn't supported in a few years then so be it - at least you got to enjoy it for awhile...... If it is supported I am betting that you will be buying the HDMI 15.7 capable player that supports ultra super duper 3D

I have no issues with this -- if you want to see how it goes then wait a few years.

Early HD adopters waited for a long time to get to where we are today. Lots of people didn't think HD would even survive. Fox didn't jump in until way late. Don't hear us complain to much today....
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Amazon's price is $2000. PN50C7000.

This item has not yet been released.

Common for Amazon, they will adjust the price when the sets arrive.
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post #30 of 123 Old 03-23-2010, 12:58 PM
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How much is the 'premium' exactly. When looking at the price difference people seem to be looking at the cheapest 1080p TV they can find, and then comparing it to a similar sized 3DTV.

Samsung's 3DTV for example doesnt cost that much more than their regular 240hz LED tvs.
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