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post #781 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by rural scribe View Post
According to an article in today's NY Times, Netflix's disk rental operation is highly profitable and it is not going to be shut down anytime soon.

Here is a link to the article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/27/bu...T.nav=top-news
Interesting read and one may see it two different ways. I saw it as everything stated was defending the DVD business as "dwindling" and while still generating some profits, it is getting crushed by the growth in streaming. That those who continue are those who don't have other options. And this base won't let the company raise rates to keep the profits rolling. All this is nothing new.

I was not one who thought DVD was shut down as I have read the financial reports, so not only do I know it continues, I know what the profits are since the company breaks it down. The trajectory is not one of long life.

I don't know about other parts of the country but DVD rental business is alive and kicking with Red Box. The cost is much less than Netflix and I can rent most of the new titles and have them here in under 15 minutes! The cost is variable because I keep getting so many discounts and coupon deals they send me. Average price I pay for 2 BluRays out at a time is $1.60 each after the discounts and coupons. DVD's are about 50 cents less. Even if I don't bother applying the coupons the 2 BD will run $3.75. for the pair. I now have 7 Red Boxes within 1.5 miles of the house so inventory is varied and plentiful. No way Netflix can compete with that.

Netflix will continue to be good for people who have terrible internet service and the nearest local B&M rental store or vending machine is 15 or more miles away.


I continue to trade Netflix as it is a great way to profit every couple months on their stock. Now it's even easier since they had a 7 to 1 split so you can buy shares with just a couple hundred $ hold a few months sell it and pay for all your rentals with the profits.
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post #782 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 11:09 AM
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First of all, no one said they are going to "drop 3D rentals." I don't know where you pulled that from.

If you really think the service moved to a central part of the country to better serve more of its customers (and that there is no administrative tedium associated with that causing service delays) because the company is shrinking or stagnating (as opposed to expanding), then to put it politely I think you're ignoring the evidence and we'll just have to agree to disagree.
These are "straw man" arguments, that is, stating an argument, shooting it down and attributing it to somebody who didn't say it.

I never said that 3DBR was going to shut down 3D rentals, merely that if they did that, I would quit the service.

I also did not say that 3DBR's move to a more central location of the country is because the company is shrinking or stagnating.

I merely disagreed with your assertion that this move is because they are doing so well.

You and I have a different definition of "expansion". If 3DBR had opened a new distribution center in the Midwest and kept their California center open, that would be an expansion, from one distribution center to two.

I gather, though that they closed down their California center, so they moved distribution from one place to another, without expanding the number of distribution centers.

By moving to the Midwest, they are probably going to lose some customers on the West Coast, in places like California, Oregon and Washington (and other places in the West and Southwest) because of the increased shipping distance.

The company probably hopes they will gain customers in the Midwest and East Coast and other areas to more than offset West Coast losses.

It is a reasonable plan. It may work. It may not. But it isn't an expansion.

Also, as far as the "sophistry" goes of my pointing out that the company's top rental data shows it is competing more directly with Netflix than I thought they were, it is an opinion supported by the available data.

Of the top 50 rentals (at the time I last checked) only six were not available from Netfix, and five of those were 3D movies.

Looking at the data, it looks like 3DBR is getting most of its income from 2D rentals currently available from Netflix. The second most important source of income is 3D movies at 10 percent of sales. All other major attractions for 3DBR renters appear to be less than 10 percent of the top rentals by volume (probably a lot less).

There is an attraction for those who don't want to subscribe. You can rent disks from 3DBR without being on a subscription plan at all, which may account for some of those top 50 rentals which are also available from Netflix. There is no data I've seen on this one way or another to say how big this factor is.

Somewhere lower on the list of renter priorities would be the following, in no particular order:

Movies available from 3DBR, which are not available from Netflix, at least in blu-ray format, if not altogether. I don't know how far down on the list of "Top Rentals" one might find these. I didn't see any because I only looked at the top 50, and the list might not have been up to date. Might be further down on the list, 75, 100 down from the top? This appears not to be a significant priority for most renters, and that is expected, given the nature of the overall movie market.

Movies that 3DBR can rent to customers a month before Netflix can offer them for rent is another attraction for some. I didn't see any evidence of that in this data, but comments in this forum indicate there are issues with significant wait times on newly released disks, and higher costs, meaning they aren't covered under the subscription plan price. These factors at least partially offset this advantage.

Then there is the attraction of movie rentals of full-featured disks, with more extras, better soundtracks, etc. in those cases that 3DBR stocks them.

Full-featured disks are said to be superior in this regard to Netflix's "economy" disks. The data doesn't indicate if this claim is true or not, but there are comments in the forums that indicate this is an attraction for some.

Based on the data, and comments in this forum, it looks like 3DBR is competing directly with Netflix, other than in the 3D rental market, and the other marginal specialty areas mentioned in this forum.

It appears from the comments in this forum, that the problems with shipment speed at 3DBR are a more important factor than the list of advantages 3DBR has over its main rival, Netflix (except for its ability to deliver 3D movies, of course).

Absent any hard data on actual rental income, I'd say the jury is still out on how well 3DBR is doing.
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post #783 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 11:16 AM
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post #784 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 11:35 AM
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Interesting read and one may see it two different ways. I saw it as everything stated was defending the DVD business as "dwindling" and while still generating some profits, it is getting crushed by the growth in streaming. That those who continue are those who don't have other options. And this base won't let the company raise rates to keep the profits rolling. All this is nothing new.

Netflix will continue to be good for people who have terrible internet service and the nearest local B&M rental store or vending machine is 15 or more miles away.
The article also says that Netflix has effectively split the company in two, streaming on one side and disk mailing on the other, so the "crushing" impact of streaming is a bit muted by that, also by automation and cost-cutting on the mailing side.

I also rent from Red Box, but it has a very limited title list, and the price keeps going up, too. Luckily, I have another source of rentals nearby, a Hastings store.

I use Netflix, 3DBR, Hastings, Red Box, Ebay, Amazon, and I still can't find some of the titles I want, like "The American Side."
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post #785 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 11:38 AM
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post #786 of 806 Old 07-26-2015, 12:29 PM
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The article also says that Netflix has effectively split the company in two, streaming on one side and disk mailing on the other, so the "crushing" impact of streaming is a bit muted by that, also by automation and cost-cutting on the mailing side.
Ever since the streaming business was begun, it's been run as a different division, not company. Only once did they attempt to split the DVD off as a separate company in hopes of selling it but we all know that didn't work out so well. Today, while the DVD end is still run by a different management team and work out of separate facilities, the Netflix company is still operated under one CEO and BOD. The DVD end is broken out as a category, similar to the new production of original programming is. Since the company's value is based on subscriber growth and not profits, EBITDA, as soon as the DVD can't carry it's weight even under subscriber growth, then the BOD will decide to close it down. If they don't, the company will be over run by activist investors who will do it for them. You and others here may not like it but that is how things are done in today's public business world. By share holder vote.


Glad you have options for the time when one service may close or get too expensive. Some here claim Netflix DVD or 3BR is the only good choice they have.
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post #787 of 806 Old 07-27-2015, 06:38 AM
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Originally Posted by rural scribe View Post
According to an article in today's NY Times, Netflix's disk rental operation is highly profitable and it is not going to be shut down anytime soon.

Here is a link to the article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/27/bu...T.nav=top-news
That really depends on the profit percentage. Streaming finally surpassed discs as a higher percentage of profits for Netflix. They have already said they will dump discs at some point in the future. The only question is when. As long as it continues to provide a healthy margin of profit it makes sense. But that percentage is decreasing quarterly.

Of course I want them to keep discs around as long as possible. 3d-blurayrental compliments Netflix well. But since I've joined 3D BD several years ago, I am renting more titles from them. Partially because of the changes that Netflix has made resulting in more BD titles not being available from Netflix.

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post #788 of 806 Old 07-27-2015, 06:43 AM
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I don't know about other parts of the country but DVD rental business is alive and kicking with Red Box. The cost is much less than Netflix and I can rent most of the new titles and have them here in under 15 minutes! ................

........
I typically use RedBox to supplement Netflix. I tried using it instead of Netflix for awhile but Redbox ended up being more expensive for me. The cost per disc from Netflix is much lower than the cost per disc from Redbox. Plus Netflix is more convenient since I don't need to drive somewhere and wait in line at the RedBox Kiosk. There are over a dozen Kiosks within a ten minutes drive of me and typically if I go to one I need to wait in line. Which I hate.

Which is why I like 3d-blurayrental so much. No standing in line.

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post #789 of 806 Old 07-27-2015, 09:34 AM
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I typically use RedBox to supplement Netflix. I tried using it instead of Netflix for awhile but Redbox ended up being more expensive for me. The cost per disc from Netflix is much lower than the cost per disc from Redbox. Plus Netflix is more convenient since I don't need to drive somewhere and wait in line at the RedBox Kiosk. There are over a dozen Kiosks within a ten minutes drive of me and typically if I go to one I need to wait in line. Which I hate.

Which is why I like 3d-blurayrental so much. No standing in line.
I used to use Red Box, but they increased their price to where they aren't really all that competitive with the local video store (Hastings).

Red Box also seems to have problems keeping up to date with their stocking around here. New titles sometimes don't appear on time, or they are sold out for weeks on end.
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post #790 of 806 Old 07-27-2015, 12:35 PM
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Around here the Mom & Pop Video stores only deal in really old titles and porn. Blockbuster was the last of the good rental stores here.

New releases are never out of stock unless you insist only on one box and at some particular time. They also have a way you can reserve a title for a particular box with an email or text alert. I only used it once but it was pretty slick. When the title was returned I got an alert and could put it on hold for my pickup. Usually, Fridays and Saturdays between 5-7PM are the worst times for getting a new title in DVD. BD are less popular so these are easier to find when they are new.
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post #791 of 806 Old 07-27-2015, 01:00 PM
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Around here the Mom & Pop Video stores only deal in really old titles and porn. Blockbuster was the last of the good rental stores here.

New releases are never out of stock unless you insist only on one box and at some particular time. They also have a way you can reserve a title for a particular box with an email or text alert. I only used it once but it was pretty slick. When the title was returned I got an alert and could put it on hold for my pickup. Usually, Fridays and Saturdays between 5-7PM are the worst times for getting a new title in DVD. BD are less popular so these are easier to find when they are new.
Not around here. I only rent BDs. A new title will quickly be out of stock at many of the Kiosks. I only rent from Redbox by reserving online first and then picking it up. Many times I've had a new title show up at a Kiosk and when I check a few minutes later it's not available any more because it has already been reserved by someone else.

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post #792 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 01:10 AM
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Many times I've had a new title show up at a Kiosk and when I check a few minutes later it's not available any more because it has already been reserved by someone else.
Happens to me a lot! But there is a way on the website you can search other locations expanding your zone to find it at another box. That has never and I mean never let me down. If I go out 7 miles from the house, I have 30 Redboxes so it is unlikely it will be out at all of them. I used to drive 12 miles to the nearest Blockbuster and pay $3.99 per BD. The trick then is to find my two selections at the same box. I normally rent 2 since they have one at regular price and the second is 50 cents off.

Someone mentioned long lines. Worst I get here is one ahead of me because they are browsing reading every movie description, then after several minutes they finally leave and don't rent anything. It amazes me how many people don't reserve ahead of time.




Back to 3DBluRay Rental. Two weeks ago I received 3 rentals fast, watched them and returned them. Now I get a notice one has not yet been received. In addition, I ordered another that was supposed to be shipped right away and it's been over a week since their shipment notice. I think there may be a mail problem. I hope we don't have a thief. This is always the problem with mail disks. It's rare here but does happen.
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post #793 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 06:11 AM
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The thief would most likely be the postal service. They probably either lost the disc or the machinery messed it up.
Although I know I had some issues in the past with the edge where it was sealed. And I had a few titles not get back. So since then I always tape the edge down to make sure it doesn't come undone when being shipped back. And I've rarely had any issues shipping titles back since then.

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post #794 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 08:32 AM
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Back to 3DBluRay Rental. Two weeks ago I received 3 rentals fast, watched them and returned them. Now I get a notice one has not yet been received. In addition, I ordered another that was supposed to be shipped right away and it's been over a week since their shipment notice. I think there may be a mail problem. I hope we don't have a thief. This is always the problem with mail disks. It's rare here but does happen.
that has happened to me 4 or 5 times. i replied to the email telling them that i had returned it on such and such date (which i did). each time nothing came of it. i think their 'checking in' process may be lacking. who knows.
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post #795 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 10:16 AM
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The thief would most likely be the postal service. They probably either lost the disc or the machinery messed it up.
Although I know I had some issues in the past with the edge where it was sealed. And I had a few titles not get back. So since then I always tape the edge down to make sure it doesn't come undone when being shipped back. And I've rarely had any issues shipping titles back since then.
I once had a Netflix disk that showed up about a month after it was shipped to me, so maybe these things get temporarily transferred to another dimension.

Every once in a while there are stories in the news about people finding these big stashes of lost mail in the system that strange postal workers have secretly squirreled away.

By the way, thanks for reminding me about the tape. I almost forgot.
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post #796 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 10:50 AM
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Around here the Mom & Pop Video stores only deal in really old titles and porn. Blockbuster was the last of the good rental stores here.
I guess I'm lucky that the local video store here gets most of the same new titles that Red Box gets, and it rents and sells some new disks a full month before either Red Box or Netflix starts renting them. Their rental prices are very competitive, too, and they have a large stock of videos on the shelves.

On the other hand, I live in a rural area. It is a three mile round trip from my house to the mail box, so Netflix, 3DBR and other disk-by-mail services are far less convenient for me than they are for people who have mail delivered directly to their house.
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post #797 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 11:22 AM
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Interesting read and one may see it two different ways. I saw it as everything stated was defending the DVD business as "dwindling" and while still generating some profits, it is getting crushed by the growth in streaming. That those who continue are those who don't have other options. And this base won't let the company raise rates to keep the profits rolling.
According to the story, the DVD end of the business is generating "hundreds of millions of dollars" in profit annually, while at the same time, "The company expects its streaming business to just break even globally through 2016 as it pours billions of dollars into content and an aggressive expansion."

So it looks like the DVD-by-mail business is paying for a portion of the expansion of Netflix streaming, and maybe some content development costs, too.

The DVD-by-mail business will probably continue to shrink, while the streaming business will probably continue to expand, as long as internet bandwidth is available to sustain that growth.

But as far as Netflix closing down the video-by-mail business in the next few years, it sure doesn't look that way, according to this particular news story.
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post #798 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 12:18 PM
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New releases are never out of stock unless you insist only on one box and at some particular time.
This must be a geographic issue. I'm not exaggerating when I say I have used >50 different Redboxes in my area (I am in the car a lot anyhow). And even if I am willing to travel a fair distance for a title there are plenty of times, midweek included, where the movie I'm looking for is simply not available.

They have also increased their costs from $1.00 (DVD)/$1.20 (BD) to $1.50/$2. I really do demand Blu so we are talking about a 67% increase in cost. I often take a few days to watch so the final cost is significantly higher than it used to be (especially as coupons have dried up some too). My local rental place (not that local...) is now cheaper for a 2 day rental. And they have 3D, new releases, etc.
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post #799 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 01:25 PM
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Re- Netflix profits: The way you paint the picture it would appear so, but your painting is way off base in actual accounting of the revenue. You would need to examine the numbers and understand basic corporate accounting to follow why you are simply in gross error. Leaving out certain details by the author just told me his article had a personal agenda. As I said before, I don't get my information from bloggers. I get it from Reed Hastings CEO, the CFO and the reports files with the SEC. Here the explanation doesn't show the DVD business supporting the streaming. There is no point in discussing this further.

I see everyone's situation is different and I can understand if it takes some people several days to watch a movie. I only take 90 minutes to watch a 90 minute movie and then maybe another 20 minutes of so for the extra features. But, it is very rare that I keep a movie longer than a day before mailing it back or returning it to Red Box. Unless of course there is a US Mail holiday or no pickup like Sunday. We do get door to door delivery in this neighborhood. I don't even have a mail box at the street. Just picked up another new release at Redbox- Cost of this one disk is $0 Every 10 disks rented I get a free one.

On Netflix cost I see it is still $7.99 a month. So, if I could turn a disk every third day I could rent 7 per month assuming a 4 day turn around. Or is it 3 days for shipping both ways and viewing a day? Regardless it would be cheaper to Rent from Netflix subscription by a couple dollars a month than Redbox. The have a free month promo I saw. But either of these is considerably more expensive than 3DBR rental but the one thing going with them is 3D and for those they just can't be beat, especially the service. Delivery has been my only complaint.

It's been a couple years since I had a problem here with missing disks from the mail. The last time it happened both inbound and outbound disappeared. And they disappeared several times for a couple weeks and then it stopped. My wife was joking that since I only do 3D mail order, the guy stealing them probably can't play 3D and gets frustrated.
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According to the story, the DVD end of the business is generating "hundreds of millions of dollars" in profit annually, while at the same time, "The company expects its streaming business to just break even globally through 2016 as it pours billions of dollars into content and an aggressive expansion."

So it looks like the DVD-by-mail business is paying for a portion of the expansion of Netflix streaming, and maybe some content development costs, too.

The DVD-by-mail business will probably continue to shrink, while the streaming business will probably continue to expand, as long as internet bandwidth is available to sustain that growth.

But as far as Netflix closing down the video-by-mail business in the next few years, it sure doesn't look that way, according to this particular news story.
The streaming business makes more profit than rentals in the US. Which is really the apple to apple comparison since they only rent discs in the US. So the comparisons need to be made between streaming in the US and Disc rentals in the US. Not disc rentals in the US and streaming globally.
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post #801 of 806 Old 07-28-2015, 10:16 PM
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Plus the fact that foreign Netflix is quite new and had initial licensing deals that impact the startup cost as expensed which Netflix does. The details of this method of accounting was all explained in their report last year.
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post #802 of 806 Old 07-29-2015, 10:30 AM
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Plus the fact that foreign Netflix is quite new and had initial licensing deals that impact the startup cost as expensed which Netflix does. The details of this method of accounting was all explained in their report last year.
About that post, I actually hit the delete button to remove it because I saw that I had mis-characterized what you'd said, but, despite my attempt to delete it, the post did not go away.

Apologies about that.

I do hope that the current disk-by-mail operations stay in business for a long time, and the NY Times article gives me hope on that front.

As far as crystal ball predictions about the future of video technology, I have a feeling that things are going to develop in very unexpected ways, just because they usually do.

I think we are in the early stages of trying to ride the whirlwind.
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post #803 of 806 Old 07-29-2015, 10:48 AM
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this ever happened to you?

I got some weird emails today from 3DBR.

One said there was a short wait on a film, "insurgent" that I did not order.

I got two more emails (all these were sent at the same day and time) concerning my order for "Coraline". The first email said it had shipped. The second one said there would be a short wait on the same film. So I sent an email back asking which one of these contradictory statements is correct.

The good news is that it looks like I'll get my 10 movies this month, despite the fact that two of them took at least eight days to get here. The longest wait is one shipped on July 20 that I'm still waiting on nine days later.

Kinda reminds me of the old Foster Brooks joke about the jetliner that lost an engine -- it'll turn up somewhere.
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post #804 of 806 Old 07-30-2015, 07:49 AM
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As far as crystal ball predictions about the future of video technology, I have a feeling that things are going to develop in very unexpected ways, just because they usually do.
One thing you can look forward to is something that is in the works in a joint venture between Google and SpaceX. Google has a project with SpaceX to develop a set of satellites to establish a very high speed internet service with a global footprint. No longer will we be comparing speed of one ISP to another. This system will render cable internet and tower LTE internet as obsolete as dialup is today. Google is a private equity partner in SpaceX (Elon Musk startup) to achieve this while Musk's goals are the Mars expeditions. No longer will remote residents suffer no broadband.

On the missing 3D movies to/from 3DBR, I did get an email from them yesterday that my one return was discovered so now I am still waiting for the one I ordered that has yet to arrive, they said they shipped it 10 days ago. Maybe today???? But the longer it goes the more unlikely it will ever show up.

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The longest wait is one shipped on July 20 that I'm still waiting on nine days later.
WOW! that is coincidental since the 20th is the day my missing disk from them was said to ship. Thanks for that info. We are in the same boat!
Let's stay posting on this. Nothing like 2 similar cases to show where the problem is. Is it really a coincidence?

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post #805 of 806 Old Today, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Don Landis View Post

On the missing 3D movies to/from 3DBR, I did get an email from them yesterday that my one return was discovered so now I am still waiting for the one I ordered that has yet to arrive, they said they shipped it 10 days ago. Maybe today???? But the longer it goes the more unlikely it will ever show up.

WOW! that is coincidental since the 20th is the day my missing disk from them was said to ship. Thanks for that info. We are in the same boat!
Let's stay posting on this. Nothing like 2 similar cases to show where the problem is. Is it really a coincidence?
Just wanted to report that my video from 3DBRR just arrived this morning. This was said to have been shipped on July 20th from Naperville Il. The envelope was not damaged and did not appear to have been tampered with. Curious as to why it took so long.
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post #806 of 806 Old Today, 05:38 PM
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Just wanted to report that my video from 3DBRR just arrived this morning. This was said to have been shipped on July 20th from Naperville Il. The envelope was not damaged and did not appear to have been tampered with. Curious as to why it took so long.
That happens in general with the USPS. Not the norm but it does happen. I've had items arrive weeks, months, and even over a year after they were shipped to me..

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