Official Sony VPL-VW500ES / VW600ES 4K Projector Thread - Page 100 - AVS Forum
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post #2971 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:00 AM
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I think 90% of the cost of 4K projectors now is due to R&D, and once that's covered, they can sell it for dirt cheap...

If I were Sony, I would sell the 500ES for $3500 and suddenly they'll be taking over everyone's market share and start to make huge profits and they'll have a 2 year monopoly on the market... that'll kill off almost all competition...

Sony is losing money. For all you know Sony will be out of business in 5 years. Because you didn't want to spend more than $3500 for a VW600!
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post #2972 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:01 AM
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It doesn't matter, because if and when 4K projectors are as cheap as you think they should be, you won't want one. There will be 8K super contrast laser projectors available - for the same money as the VW600 and 1100 now. Or more.

That's a completely different story though.. doesn't change the fact that I'll most likely be right on the pricing of 4K projectors..

And I bet by then, people here will say '8K projectors can't go down in price because 8K lenses are super expensive'.. hahahahah
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post #2973 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:01 AM
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We keep hearing the 'mantra' that good lenses arent' cheap, good lenses aren't cheap.. and that's why 4K projectors can never be cheap.. i just think that's all hogwash.. smile.gif (pardon the expression).

Don’t know about video projectors but I can tell you lens for professional video cameras are expensive and has been for many years. Made mention of this here and here. IIRC the lens in the 500/600 are all glass pieces except for one plastic piece.
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post #2974 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:03 AM
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Sony is losing money. For all you know Sony will be out of business in 5 years. Because you didn't want to spend more than $3500 for a VW600!

Actually I have another thought on this.. I think Sony is going out of business is precisely because they are not thinking outside of the box.

They have too many products and are going all over the place. They aren't good in any of them, or when they are, they sell them too high...

If I was Sony, since i have the best technology in 4K projectors, I would price them $3.5K, kill off all competition, and make tons of money in the projector market... plus, i can then sell all my (Sony's) content all over again in 4K bluray format...
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post #2975 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:04 AM
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Don’t know about video projectors but I can tell you lens for professional video cameras are expensive and has been for many years. Made mention of this here and here. IIRC the lens in the 500/600 are all glass pieces except for one plastic piece.

Yep. manufacturing of good camera lens has never gotten cheap and they are a larger market share than HT projectors. Don't know why people think HT lens will be different. Not saying there will not be cheaper 4K projectors, there will be, but they will come at a cost and that cost will partially be the quality of the lens.

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post #2976 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:07 AM
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Don’t know about video projectors but I can tell you lens for professional video cameras are expensive and has been for many years. Made mention of this here and here. IIRC the lens in the 500/600 are all glass pieces except for one plastic piece.

You are talking about 'specialty' consumer products. Like buying a lamborghini...

I am talking about how much Sony gets their lenses for in terms of 'manufactuerer's price' or how much to 'actually produce them'.. for all you know $10K camera lenses cost $200 to produce... Until someone can proof that sony's 'internal' manufacturing price for lenses are expensive or as expensive as people want to make them out to be, i will be skeptical...

Again, we'll know once you start to see 4K projectors with as good a quality comes out in less than 2 years for cheap... then all the lens argument goes out the drain...
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post #2977 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:08 AM
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Yep. manufacturing of good camera lens has never gotten cheap and they are a larger market share than HT projectors. Don't know why people think HT lens will be different. Not saying there will not be cheaper 4K projectors, there will be, but they will come at a cost and that cost will partially be the quality of the lens.

Do you know the 'actual' price of lens? Ie, cost to produce them vs 'street consumer prices'?
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post #2978 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:11 AM
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Yep. manufacturing of good camera lens has never gotten cheap and they are a larger market share than HT projectors. Don't know why people think HT lens will be different. Not saying there will not be cheaper 4K projectors, there will be, but they will come at a cost and that cost will partially be the quality of the lens.

And show me manufacturing labor, insurance, shipping and packaging that has gotten cheaper. These may be the good old days right now. Throw a new carbon tax on top of everything you buy, to slow global warming, and things can only get more expensive. Some day there won't be a 3rd World - everyone will want the same wage we get in the west, so they can actually afford to buy the projectors they build. Can't blame them one bit. In fact, if you thank back 60 years, only the super rich could afford a home theater. Even the VW600 at full MSRP is a bargain compared to what a projector would cost in 1960 !!

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post #2979 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:12 AM
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for all you know $10K camera lenses cost $200 to produce

It may serve you well to do a little research on quality glass lens production.
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post #2980 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:15 AM
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It may serve you well to do a little research on quality glass lens production.

Show me the numbers...and i mean, actual manufacturing costs of good quality 4K lenses as those used in the 500es... and not some 'mumbo jumbo' about some 'imagined' 'difficult to make, impossible to lower cost, it's an art form, etc, etc' type argument...
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post #2981 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:18 AM
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You are talking about 'specialty' consumer products. Like buying a lamborghini...

A VW600 or 1100 ( or 3 chip DLP ) or really, any good home theater projector, is a specialty item. They don't sell that many.

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post #2982 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:22 AM
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A VW600 or 1100 ( or 3 chip DLP ) or really, any good home theater projector, is a specialty item. They don't sell that many.

EXACTLY my point.. that's what i have been saying all along... thanks for proving my point... i am saying the cost of the Sony 4K is mostly due to it being specialty, and have nothing to do with 'real manufacturing costs' such as hocus pocus lens prices, etc...

And when competition steps in, you'll see sub $5K projectors and even Sub $4000 projectors with just as good quality or better quality or even better lenses...
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post #2983 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:32 AM
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Maybe. Several home theater projector manufacturers have left the business lately though. So maybe not. I'm still waiting for 100 point Bordeaux for $ 25.00 / bottle too.

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post #2984 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:45 AM
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Show me the numbers...
Do your own research.

Dude, I would love to buy a 600 for $5,000.00. The reality is this, not going to happen when JVC ask $12,000.00 for their top 1080 projector or Sim2 ask > $20K to $30K for their 1080 models.

Know what a Kloss Model One A is? Paid $2,500.00 ($5,700.00 in 2014 dollars) in 84-85 for mine.
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post #2985 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 10:56 AM
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Do you know the 'actual' price of lens? Ie, cost to produce them vs 'street consumer prices'?

As someone who used to be into astronomy and telescopes, I can tell you a good lens is very expensive to produce in order to get the high optical quality to a certain level. This is not going to be any different with front projectors.

The better apochromatic refracting telescopes with, for example, a 6" front lens routinely sold for $6000 or more.

It's all in the lens. It's going to take time before prices come down on any 4K stuff just like it took time for 1080p to come down.

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post #2986 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:13 AM
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Do your own research.

Dude, I would love to buy a 600 for $5,000.00. The reality is this, not going to happen when JVC ask $12,000.00 for their top 1080 projector or Sim2 ask > $20K to $30K for their 1080 models.

Know what a Kloss Model One A is? Paid $2,500.00 ($5,700.00 in 2014 dollars) in 84-85 for mine.

Dudes... people who make claims have the burden of proof...

If you're so sure about this, care to put up a friend wager? I am saying you can get 'on the street prices' of 4K projectors with similar or better picture quality than the current Sony 500ES for $5K and lower in 2 years.

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As someone who used to be into astronomy and telescopes, I can tell you a good lens is very expensive to produce in order to get the high optical quality to a certain level. This is not going to be any different with front projectors.

The better apochromatic refracting telescopes with, for example, a 6" front lens routinely sold for $6000 or more.

It's all in the lens. It's going to take time before prices come down on any 4K stuff just like it took time for 1080p to come down.

I have no doubt...

That's astronomy though... for all you know, those lenses are of a quality several grades higher than a 4K lens.

Anyways, let's just say I am skeptical on the 'lens is expensive therefore 4K projectors can't be $5K in 2 years' mumbo jumbo arguments...

And I have yet to hear actual proof rather than 'circular argument's...
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post #2987 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:17 AM
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That's a completely different story though.. doesn't change the fact that I'll most likely be right on the pricing of 4K projectors..

And I bet by then, people here will say '8K projectors can't go down in price because 8K lenses are super expensive'.. hahahahah

Honestly, I think the projector industry at these price points is struggling more than most people know. This isn't a volume industry like LCD flat panels, they can only keep prices so low and still make it economically worthwhile. Especially now that most of these guys aren't producing these same chips for other markets (RPTVs). I think there was more room for lower pricing when JVC and Sony were developing LCOS and SXRD rear projection displays because of volume. Just like DLP. I think the DLP history can show you how fast the projection market we love so much can just go away if it is no longer economical. With Sony struggling (to put it lightly) who knows what the future holds.

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post #2988 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:20 AM
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Honestly, I think the projector industry at these price points is struggling more than most people know. This isn't a volume industry like LCD flat panels, they can only keep prices so low and still make it economically worthwhile. Especially now that most of these guys aren't producing these same chips for other markets (RPTVs). I think there was more room for lower pricing when JVC and Sony were developing LCOS and SXRD rear projection displays because of volume. Just like DLP. I think the DLP history can show you how fast the projection market we love so much can just go away if it is no longer economical. With Sony struggling (to put it lightly) who knows what the future holds.

I understand what you're saying.. but that doesn't change the fact that 4K projectors won't be the norm in 2 years and replaces 2K projectors' pricing... technology marches forward..... more powerful chips becomes cheaper and cheaper, etc...

I have yet to lose an argument when it comes to 'technology coming down in prices' when it becomes the norm... and 4K is becoming the next 'norm' pretty fast...
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post #2989 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:30 AM
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I have yet to lose an argument when it comes to 'technology coming down in prices' when it becomes the norm... and 4K is becoming the next 'norm' pretty fast...

Maybe, but it doesn't always come down in price as fast as one would want. I wish you were right though - I'd be able to buy a new Tesla Model S for $ 15K next year ( not ) !

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post #2990 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:32 AM
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Maybe, but it doesn't always come down in price as fast as one would want. I wish you were right though - I'd be able to buy a new Tesla Model S for $ 15K next year ( not ) !

You're in luck then.. cause i'll be right.. you'll be enjoying a nice 4K projector inside of 2 years for the cheap ol price of less than $5K... heh!!

BTW: On the other hand, if you're extremely sure I'll be wrong, then bet me a 4K projector and if I am wrong, you'll get one for free... either way, win-win!!!
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post #2991 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:40 AM
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I understand what you're saying.. but that doesn't change the fact that 4K projectors won't be the norm in 2 years and replaces 2K projectors' pricing... technology marches forward..... more powerful chips becomes cheaper and cheaper, etc...

I have yet to lose an argument when it comes to 'technology coming down in prices' when it becomes the norm... and 4K is becoming the next 'norm' pretty fast...

There is no way 4K projectors will be the "norm" in two years. Other than the two Sonys, there are none today I am aware of.

JVC might release one for 2015 (but maybe not). I am not sure about Panasonic, Mits, or the others but I would doubt it.

Maybe Sony and JVC releases a couple of more in 2016 - but the norm by then? Highly, highly unlikely.

It's not going to move that fast in the front projection realm. LED flat panels are a completely different ballgame and 4K will probably be the norm in 55"+ models in 2016.

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post #2992 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:46 AM
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I think the price of 4K displays coming down fast will hinge on the quantity of content and how fast we see it in the market. There has to be a driver for those to want a 4K display. Price is one of them yes, but without a lot of content to watch people tend to hold off. People act like 1080p came down super fast, but we've had 1080p projectors for A LONG time now and we've had content for even longer. I installed my first 1080p projector in my theater room over 8 years ago now. And we already had A LOT of HD content on TV and even formats like D-Theater and the rollout of HD-DVD. How much 4K content is there right now? I see NO signs of broadcast 4K anytime in the near future. Netflix is talking about a couple shows. 4K Blu-ray is at least a year and a half out if not more. Sony has their little box with their movies on it. But it is NOTHING like the market was for HD by the time we saw 1080p projectors. EVERYONE wanted HD displays back then. We were not only just getting HD but we were also transitioning from expensive bulky analog displays to thin, light and sexy flat panel displays. The marketplace as a whole is so different right now that trying to see we'll see the exact same rates of decline in price seem a bit naive. Yes, 4K displays will come down in price. This will probably be for two different reasons: 1. The market adopts and volume shipping reducing pricing or 2. The market never comes and reduced pricing comes from clearing out the inventory to recoup anything they can. I hate to sound doom and gloom but I think 4K is a much harder sell in the long run than HDTV ever was. HDTV was great because we went from not only a massive resolution difference but also a change in the market from analog to digital (and I'm talking about display tech, not software). I also think people are jumping the gun a bit on how fast they think 4K content will be actually hitting the market in any real volume. I think we're farther away from that promised land than most people think.
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post #2993 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:49 AM
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Good points, Kris.

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There is no way 4K projectors will be the "norm" in two years. Other than the two Sonys, there are none today I am aware of.

JVC might release one for 2015 (but maybe not). I am not sure about Panasonic, Mits, or the others but I would doubt it.

Maybe Sony and JVC releases a couple of more in 2016 - but the norm by then? Highly, highly unlikely.

It's not going to move that fast in the front projection realm. LED flat panels are a completely different ballgame and 4K will probably be the norm in 55"+ models in 2016.

Care to take up my bet then?
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post #2995 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:51 AM
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Care to take up my bet then?

Get real. Seriously.

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post #2996 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:51 AM
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There is no way 4K projectors will be the "norm" in two years. Other than the two Sonys, there are none today I am aware of.

JVC might release one for 2015 (but maybe not). I am not sure about Panasonic, Mits, or the others but I would doubt it.

Maybe Sony and JVC releases a couple of more in 2016 - but the norm by then? Highly, highly unlikely.

It's not going to move that fast in the front projection realm. LED flat panels are a completely different ballgame and 4K will probably be the norm in 55"+ models in 2016.

I'm so sure you are right David that I continue to buy Blu Rays for my collection. I'm pretty sure that I'll still be watching Blu Rays ( whether on a 4K projector or still my Lumis ) in 2020. I'm actually quite satisfied with my current home theater set up. Everything has got to mature, solidify, and prove it can play together nicely in the 4K / HDMI 2.0 world, before I'm remotely interested in moving to a new format. And, if and when a 4K Blu Ray comes out, the studios need to prove that they can re-master everything in 4K in such a way that it is actually a substantial upgrade picture wise. I'm doubtful some movies will ever look better than they do now, due to limitations in the source material.

There are some damn fine 1080p projectors to enjoy right now ! cool.gif

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post #2997 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:53 AM
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I think the price of 4K displays coming down fast will hinge on the quantity of content and how fast we see it in the market. There has to be a driver for those to want a 4K display. Price is one of them yes, but without a lot of content to watch people tend to hold off. People act like 1080p came down super fast, but we've had 1080p projectors for A LONG time now and we've had content for even longer. I installed my first 1080p projector in my theater room over 8 years ago now. And we already had A LOT of HD content on TV and even formats like D-Theater and the rollout of HD-DVD. How much 4K content is there right now? I see NO signs of broadcast 4K anytime in the near future. Netflix is talking about a couple shows. 4K Blu-ray is at least a year and a half out if not more. Sony has their little box with their movies on it. But it is NOTHING like the market was for HD by the time we saw 1080p projectors. EVERYONE wanted HD displays back then. We were not only just getting HD but we were also transitioning from expensive bulky analog displays to thin, light and sexy flat panel displays. The marketplace as a whole is so different right now that trying to see we'll see the exact same rates of decline in price seem a bit naive. Yes, 4K displays will come down in price. This will probably be for two different reasons: 1. The market adopts and volume shipping reducing pricing or 2. The market never comes and reduced pricing comes from clearing out the inventory to recoup anything they can. I hate to sound doom and gloom but I think 4K is a much harder sell in the long run than HDTV ever was. HDTV was great because we went from not only a massive resolution difference but also a change in the market from analog to digital (and I'm talking about display tech, not software). I also think people are jumping the gun a bit on how fast they think 4K content will be actually hitting the market in any real volume. I think we're farther away from that promised land than most people think.

Right in all points...

Except the sony 500es plays 2k content so much better right now... their upscaler is incredible so we can still enjoy such great improvements whether or not you have 4k content... no doubt 4k content will creep along at snails pace
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post #2998 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Peer View Post

I'm so sure you are right David that I continue to buy Blu Rays for my collection. I'm pretty sure that I'll still be watching Blu Rays ( whether on a 4K projector or still my Lumis ) in 2020. I'm actually quite satisfied with my current home theater set up. Everything has got to mature, solidify, and prove it can play together nicely in the 4K / HDMI 2.0 world, before I'm remotely interested in moving to a new format. And, if and when a 4K Blu Ray comes out, the studios need to prove that they can re-master everything in 4K in such a way that it is actually a substantial upgrade picture wise. I'm doubtful some movies will ever look better than they do now, due to limitations in the source material.

There are some damn fine 1080p projectors to enjoy right now ! cool.gif

I'm on the same page and I continue to buy Blu-rays as well, Craig. smile.gif I just watched Jaws last night on Blu-ray (remastered in 4K) and it really looked great. It was like watching a new film print.

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post #2999 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 02:13 PM
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bottom line is I am super enjoying my Sony 600es now, not in two years. You can always wait for the next big thing.
I had a Heathkit color television that i built in 1969. It was the best then. People waited forever to buy the next color tv and stuck with their black and white sets.
I enjoyed mine now. You always pay a price for now. You want to wait until it comes down good luck. How much of the 15k really goes to sony. maybe 8k.
So you wait for the 3500 4k projector, it will be here some day. I paid about the same price for my two Marantz projectors over the last ten years. The sony is
so much better at about the same price. They both listed for about 15k
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post #3000 of 3422 Old 05-22-2014, 02:25 PM
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This thread has degenerated into a few school boys taunting each other. http://www.moddb.com/members/gamerknight/images/someone-is-wrong-on-the-internet
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Reply Digital Hi-End Projectors - $3,000+ USD MSRP

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