When will 4k break the $5k USD barrier, and what can we expect? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 09:18 AM - Thread Starter
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When will 4k break the $5k USD barrier, and what can we expect?

My Sony VW60 is "long in the tooth", I've set a $5k USD max for 4k PJ to replace it.

a) When do you think that will be realistic? 2016 summer?

b) What kind of machine will fit that bill?

I expect 2015 to be the wave of 4k PJ's flooding the market, and truly drive 1080p down in price, with manuf capacity as OE's switch their production to 4k, so 2016 to break the $5k USD barrier should be real and practical.

Thoughts?

This reminds me of 2006, when the VW50 "Pearl" was out and the big thing, when the VW60 came out late 2007 it truly broke the $5k 1080p barrier ($5k MSRP, street was $4.2k back then)

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post #2 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 09:21 AM
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Maybe announced fall of 2016.
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post #3 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 09:52 AM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see it next year. I mean all the parts are in place, Sony could pull it off pretty easy next year if they want to. The real question is when will a 4K projector that can do Rec 2020 and HDR be under $5k. 2017?
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post #4 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 12:22 PM - Thread Starter
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Since I'm in planning stage for my HT major revision, this is good grasp for me and others.
Major Check list;
1) 4k PJ with "future"video enhancements like strange89 listed
2) Object sound AVR (Dolby Atmos /DTS-UHD/Auro/etc )

Seems like 2016 late or 2017 is mindset for me based on my needs.

I really love this hobby, but am not one to flip a PJ or AVR yearly to stay with latest tech.



Via Mikes brain/thumb interface, LLAP
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post #5 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 01:51 PM
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I'll be the pessimist here and say that for a native 4K projector meeting the specs. native 4K we are probably looking at around 2017 to reach a $5K price point. Such a projector might be announced at CEDIA 2016 then begin shipping a few months later. This might even be a single chip DLP model or perhaps a new generation, entry-level, LCoS model.

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post #6 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Jones View Post
I'll be the pessimist here and say that for a native 4K projector meeting the specs. for Blu-ray 4K we are probably looking at around 2017 to reach a $5K price point. Such a projector might be announced at CEDIA 2016 then begin shipping a few months later. This might even be a single chip DLP model or perhaps a new generation, entry-level, LCoS model.

Sometimes things move slower than we think. 2017 seems reasonable considering the slow movement so far.

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post #7 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 04:47 PM
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From the looks of it, "home theater" 4K DLP won't be talked about until CEDIA 2015 due to the DCI agreement TI has. Plus, I've heard rumors that TI isn't even planning on a home theater DMD variant. With that said, I would imagine to see an Epson or possibly Sony 4K projector in the sub-$5000 market before a 4K DLP projector reaches that market. If TI doesn't make a home thater projector variant we aren't going to see a sub $5000 projector ever. The lens cost alone to use the current 4K DMDs would be more than $5000. The optics would need to be huge to facilitate the DMD size.
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post #8 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 04:55 PM
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You guys miss the news today

Quote:
Sony Launch VPL-VW300ES 4K Projector for €7K at IFA 2014 Sony has announced the launch of an even more affordable 4K projector at IFA 2014 in Berlin this afternoon. The VPL-300ES will sit below the Japanese company’s popular VPL-VW500ES and its flagship VPL-VW1100ES projectors, priced at only 6,999 Euros, truly making a native 4K beamer more accessible to the masses.

Sony VPL-VW300ES

Projector enthusiasts will remember that this time last year, Sony also used the IFA trade show as the platform to unveil its VPL-VW500ES projector with a native 4K Ultra HD resolution of 4096×2160, at only half the price of the £17,000 VPL-VW1000ES. The Sony VW500 truly set the benchmark within the video projector industry at a time when no other manufacturer has even launched a consumer-grade 4K projector, and with the VPL-300ES the company has done the unfathomable and gone one better.
Of course, it’s expected that to achieve this unbelievable price point, some compromises will have to be made, though a company spokesman reassured HDTVTest that picture quality will not suffer significantly. Compared with the step-up VPL-VW500ES, the Sony VPLVW300ES features slightly lower light output (1500 lumens versus the VW500′s 1700 lumens), no dynamic iris, and no lens memory.
Otherwise, Sony told us that the VPL-VW300 uses the same chassis, lens configuration and optical pathway as the VPL-VW500ES, complete with 4K SXRD panel, TRILUMINOS technology, HDMI 2.0 (YCbCr 4:2:0 8-bit, i.e. Level b) and HDCP 2.2 support (only HDMI input 2), as well as the usual flexible installation options like 2.06 zoom-powered lens and 12V trigger.

Picture
We wandered into Sony’s pitch-black demo room after Sony’s IFA press conference, and at first glance the image produced by the Sony VW300ES appeared silky smooth (as you would expect from a native 4K projector fed with true ultra high-definition source) and plenty bright. We are scheduled for a dedicated presentation and demo later at IFA, and will update this article with our impressions.
The Sony VPL-VW300ES is available to buy with a black finish from October 2014. UK pricing to follow.
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We could probably find that projector for under $5,000 here pretty soon. It'll be a year at the latest.

FYI 6999 euros = $9,000... and that's MSRP, mind you... and they'll probably actually have an MSRP closer to $7,000.
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post #9 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by javanpohl View Post
You guys miss the news today

We could probably find that projector for under $5,000 here pretty soon. It'll be a year at the latest.

FYI 6999 euros = $9,000... and that's MSRP, mind you... and they'll probably actually have an MSRP closer to $7,000.
I don't know. I doubt that will be the case. The Canadian MSRP is $8999 and if things are similar to what happened with the 600ES release last year we might actually see a $9999 US MSRP. The 500ES was cheaper to buy at street cost compared to the 600ES in the US.
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post #10 of 21 Old 09-09-2014, 09:32 PM
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2016 to 2017 sounds about right.

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post #11 of 21 Old 09-10-2014, 05:40 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by javanpohl View Post
You guys miss the news today

We could probably find that projector for under $5,000 here pretty soon. It'll be a year at the latest.

FYI 6999 euros = $9,000... and that's MSRP, mind you... and they'll probably actually have an MSRP closer to $7,000.
Interesting thread, and nice to see progress for the masses.....but I want the full Monty for $5k......
Sony Launch VPL-VW300ES 4K Projector for €7K at IFA 2014

So in my mindset 2016 late seems best case.....2 years seems so far off but it will come here ....
2015 4k blurays available will feed into that nicely, for now I'll have to also stop buying "HD" blu-rays and wait for "UHD" blu-rays

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post #12 of 21 Old 09-16-2014, 05:28 PM
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The 500ES is already under 10 grand, so the 300ES should top out at 7 grand IMO in the US. Only drop down from there as time goes on..
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post #13 of 21 Old 09-16-2014, 06:31 PM
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The 500ES is already under 10 grand, so the 300ES should top out at 7 grand IMO in the US. Only drop down from there as time goes on..
Currently, the 300ES is only available in Europe. There are no plans at the moment to bring it to the US market.

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post #14 of 21 Old Yesterday, 04:28 AM
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And the VW600 (the US version of the VW500) isn't anywhere close to under $10k, it's $15k with SURE pricing.

See what an anamorphoscopic lens can do,
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post #15 of 21 Old Yesterday, 05:40 AM
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We here in the US are still a long ways away from the 5K barrier and I am not expecting that barrier to be broken next year. Don't take this as me wanting to keep prices up. If 4K projectors sold below 5K, sales would increase 4 times or more, compared to now.

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post #16 of 21 Old Yesterday, 07:30 AM
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The really big problem is the lens (or should I say lenses).


Other aspects of projector manufacture which are new/developing technologies improve over time, and get cheaper as they become more commonplace.


But the main advantage (not the only one, but the main one) of 4K is resolution, and for that you need a damn good set of lenses.


The problem is that lenses, better lenses, sharper lenses, these aren't a new or developing technology. They've been making lenses and trying to get them as good and as cheap for many, many years. And whilst a microscope lens isn't the same as a projector lens, the basic manufacturing principles, methods and techniques are very similar.


A 4K projector will always have to have a lens capable of resolving 4k resolution, or at least a lot more than 1080p, and those lenses are not going to get a lot cheaper. Whatever other benefits of 4K, no one is going to buy a 4k projector with lenses which make it no sharper than a 1080p projector. So no one will make one of those.


It's not inconceivable that everything else in a current Sony 4K projector might drop in price to a fraction of what it is now. But, unless there's a breakthrough in lens manufacture, those expensive lumps of glass are going to keep the overall price pretty high.


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post #17 of 21 Old Yesterday, 07:48 AM
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So are you saying the lens that produced this (1080p) image is incapable of resolving 4K?

http://www.videovantage.com/?p=819

Because that's how I interpret these comments that lenses on 1080p projectors aren't good enough for 4K.

See what an anamorphoscopic lens can do,
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post #18 of 21 Old Yesterday, 06:14 PM
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With the rise of the USD, maybe it will make it easier to break the $5k barrier.
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post #19 of 21 Old Today, 02:45 AM
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Originally Posted by stanger89 View Post
So are you saying the lens that produced this (1080p) image is incapable of resolving 4K?

http://www.videovantage.com/?p=819

Because that's how I interpret these comments that lenses on 1080p projectors aren't good enough for 4K.

And how much did that particular projector cost?


You're mistaking me for saying that NO 1080p projector has a lens good enough for 4K. But look at the top-end JVCs with the hand-chosen lenses, and how much extra are they asking for?


Identical electronics, etc, but several thousand $ extra just for a better lens.

By the way, in that pic the sides of each pixel are already blurry/not sharp, and for 4K each of those pixels would be replaced by 4 pixels.

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post #20 of 21 Old Today, 04:45 AM
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And how much did that particular projector cost?
~$10k, but that is not atypical of 0.95" DLPs in general. Here's the Infocus IN81 ($3200 MSRP):


Roughly the same resolution.

Quote:
By the way, in that pic the sides of each pixel are already blurry/not sharp, and for 4K each of those pixels would be replaced by 4 pixels.
Yes but if you look at the picture, the lens is resolving the gap between the pixels. If you zoom in, the size of the pixels (plus gap) in that screenshot is approximately 29 pixels, the gap is approximately 4 pixels, so the gap is 4/29, basically 1/8th of one pixel. If that lens can resolve a gap 1/8 the size of a 1080p pixel, surely it could easily resolve something 1/2 the size (a 4k pixel).

See what an anamorphoscopic lens can do,
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post #21 of 21 Old Today, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stanger89 View Post
~$10k, but that is not atypical of 0.95" DLPs in general. Here's the Infocus IN81 ($3200 MSRP):


Roughly the same resolution.

Yes but if you look at the picture, the lens is resolving the gap between the pixels. If you zoom in, the size of the pixels (plus gap) in that screenshot is approximately 29 pixels, the gap is approximately 4 pixels, so the gap is 4/29, basically 1/8th of one pixel. If that lens can resolve a gap 1/8 the size of a 1080p pixel, surely it could easily resolve something 1/2 the size (a 4k pixel).
Yes, you can actually get a cheap lens that will resolve 4k pretty damn well. But thats a dlp with limited zoom. Once you add in a zoom ratio like the vw600 then good luck making a cheap one - thats when the costs start to escalate as it needs to be sharp right the whole way through the zoom range otherwise people won't accept it.

Sony skimped on the lens on the Vpl-HW line and its pretty obvious, and thats only 1080p at x1.6 zoom. No chance of that type of quality holding up for 4k and as I say, that's only x1.6 zoom v the 2.1 or whatever on the vw600 - extra zoom is exponentially more expensive.

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