Hard Drive Prices are Going Up... Due to flooding - Page 9 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #241 of 256 Old 12-07-2011, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Zon2020 View Post

How many people bought extra drives they didn't need when they saw them on sale recently because of fear of the high prices?

OTOH, a lot of people backed off from buying storage they only marginally needed because of the price increases. I was thinking of putting together another 5 drive RAID array for one of my systems with another couple drives to act as off-site backup; when the flood hit those plans went out the window and I wound up getting two drives (on sale) for my immediate needs and doing without the extra capacity I didn't need right away. At some point I'll probably put together another RAID array, but that point is well in the future now.

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post #242 of 256 Old 12-07-2011, 02:01 PM
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I just picked up a 1.5 tb WD Elements for $65 + a $5 off coupon from Target.
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post #243 of 256 Old 12-07-2011, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by lwong180 View Post

the idea of rationality from an economics perspective is that consumers make optimal decisions. so Sammy2 is right in saying this is irrational behavior. a temporary demand shock due to supply shock is considered irrational behavior because a rational thinker would compare the costs to the benefits, and since the cost has increased, it isn't optimal to demand more hard drives, because the trade-off is now higher. macroeconomic theory says a temporary demand shock isn't one of the effects

this whole increased demand situation probably goes into behavioral/consumer economic theory. im sure these studies model situations like this

The idea is that consumers make rational decisions not optimal. This behavior is not irrational because law of demand states: holding all else constant as price falls demand will increase and vice-versa. So taking the law of demand into consideration, and the speculation (not speculation anymore because we've seen the prices rise) that prices of HDD will increase its very rational to want to buy now, thus increasing demand. When a buyer makes a purchase it is already cost effective in their mind because they believe that what they paid for a particular item is less than what they think it's worth to them. Who would buy an item thinking right from the start it's too much money?
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post #244 of 256 Old 12-12-2011, 02:19 PM
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Hard Disk Drive Shortage May Persist Through 2013

There is quite a bit of confusing speculation about how long the computer industry will have to deal with the shortage of hard drives caused by the Thailand flood.


IHS, for example, believes that the situation will gradually improve beginning in Q1 2012 and could even result in excess supply as the currently added production of HDDs outside of Thailand is added to the production ramp as fabs in the country return to full production capability.

However, there are much more pessimistic analysts, such as John Rydning from IDC, which believe that the impact will be felt into 2013.

"I think the most painful period will occur now through February of next year," Rydning said in a quote published by Computerworld. "We expect the situation will improve, but it won't feel as if things are back to normal until 2013. "Rydning believes that HDD makers will eb able to meet "immediate demand" in the second half of 2012.

However, for now, the shortage is already forcing computer buyers to buy what is available and not what they want. Computerworld quotes Lenovo stating that some buyers will have to settle for off-spec HDDs in its products. Computerworld said that 750 GB, 320 GB, 250 GB and 160 GB drives are unavailable for some Thinkpad notebooks. Western Digital, which was hardest hit by the flood, recently said that it has restarted its hard drive production in one of its buildings, while all other facilities "remain under approximately two feet of water."

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post #245 of 256 Old 12-12-2011, 04:29 PM
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Do you think, once the market recovers, we will return to pre-flood cost of technology, basically losing a year or 2 of steady price dropping? Or will R&D, during this lull in production, advance enough that 3TB drives are the new 2, and 4+TB drives will be affordable to the enthusiastic hobbyist.
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post #246 of 256 Old 12-12-2011, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by dippert View Post

Do you think, once the market recovers, we will return to pre-flood cost of technology, basically losing a year or 2 of steady price dropping? Or will R&D, during this lull in production, advance enough that 3TB drives are the new 2, and 4+TB drives will be affordable to the enthusiastic hobbyist.

probably both.

Your going to start to see more 3TB and 4Tb drives.

The 1TB will soon seem small IMO.

My guess is we should see 2TB drives for $99 sooner than people think/predict.

4TB for $199, and $149 for 3TB.

I'll save this thread to say "I told you so"

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post #247 of 256 Old 12-12-2011, 04:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mfusick View Post


probably both.

Your going to start to see more 3TB and 4Tb drives.

The 1TB will soon seem small IMO.

My guess is we should see 2TB drives for $99 sooner than people think/predict.

4TB for $199, and $149 for 3TB.

I'll save this thread to say "I told you so"

Of course you will eventually. I'ld be impressed if you could give a month, date, year prediction
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post #248 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 05:32 AM
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$199 for 4TB is my sweet spot. I plan on jumping in on my server build when they hit that price. I read an interesting article on CNN yesterday. What really caught my attention was the last line in the article, which said this:

"The hard drives that are made by Western Digital, Toshiba, and other smaller players in the areas affected by the flooding are mainly designed for notebook and netbook personal computers."

If this flooding is mainly affecting notebook and netbook HDs, why have the desktop drives more than doubled in price as well? Causes me to think there is some price fixing going on.
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post #249 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 06:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Jobber8742 View Post


If this flooding is mainly affecting notebook and netbook HDs, why have the desktop drives more than doubled in price as well? Causes me to think there is some price fixing going on.

I read somewhere that some of the factories also make parts for the desktop drives for export which could explain the shortage. Some of it is also like the "Peanut Butter" shortage. They say there's going to be a shortage so everyone buys twice as much as they need causing a shortage. I bought 8 big jars just to be safe.

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post #250 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 06:09 AM
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Originally Posted by dobyken View Post

I read somewhere that some of the factories also make parts for the desktop drives for export which could explain the shortage. Some of it is also like the "Peanut Butter" shortage. They say there's going to be a shortage so everyone buys twice as much as they need causing a shortage. I bought 8 big jars just to be safe.

Yes, fear does strange things, but the fear will end. If there truely is a shortage, then prices will remain high. Let's hope this whole thing is overblown and prices will return to normal sooner than later when the fear subsides.
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post #251 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Jobber8742 View Post

Yes, fear does strange things, but the fear will end. If there truely is a shortage, then prices will remain high. Let's hope this whole thing is overblown and prices will return to normal sooner than later when the fear subsides.

Profits were slim in the HDD biz, and now profits are large. The manufacturers will want to prolong that as long as possible. Fortunately I've been a buyer at the prior low prices and expect I can easily not buy any more HDD for 12+ months.

FWIW my last two HDD are the new single platter AF 1TB 7200rpm Hitachi drives. Got my 1st from newegg for $65 no shipping charge. Got the 2nd just after the flooding in Singapore clearly was going to impact Seagate's operation. Paid amazon $70 for the 2nd no shipping charge. That 2nd one took 6 weeks to show up, and I honestly thought that Amazon might cancel the order as they've occasionally done that to me when I thought that there was no merit to that type of action. I'm thankful that amazon sent me that 2nd drive as price now on amazon is $140.

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post #252 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 09:57 AM
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Profits were slim in the HDD biz, and now profits are large. The manufacturers will want to prolong that as long as possible. Fortunately I've been a buyer at the prior low prices and expect I can easily not buy any more HDD for 12+ months.

FWIW my last two HDD are the new single platter AF 1TB 7200rpm Hitachi drives. Got my 1st from newegg for $65 no shipping charge. Got the 2nd just after the flooding in Singapore clearly was going to impact Seagate's operation. Paid amazon $70 for the 2nd no shipping charge. That 2nd one took 6 weeks to show up, and I honestly thought that Amazon might cancel the order as they've occasionally done that to me when I thought that there was no merit to that type of action. I'm thankful that amazon sent me that 2nd drive as price now on amazon is $140.

In the absence of a true shortage, competition will bring the prices down sooner than later unless price fixing is involved. I don't think it is, but it's hard to tell at this point.
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post #253 of 256 Old 12-13-2011, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Joeforsale View Post

Of course you will eventually. I'ld be impressed if you could give a month, date, year prediction

Ok- I predict that prices for 1TB drives hit $99 by March.

2TB will begin to hit "special" prices of $99 short term by summer time.

By this time next year normal prices will be

$69 1TB
$99 2TB
$149 3TB
$199 4TB

That is about half or even less ... than they are now.

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post #254 of 256 Old 12-14-2011, 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Mfusick View Post

Ok- I predict that prices for 1TB drives hit $99 by March.

2TB will begin to hit "special" prices of $99 short term by summer time.

By this time next year normal prices will be

$69 1TB
$99 2TB
$149 3TB
$199 4TB

That is about half or even less ... than they are now.

Interesting forecast.

Not holding my breath on that, but I hope you are right.

My forecast is that Newegg will quit charging $8/HDD for shipping, and go back to free shipping for most HDD.

I mean what's with the new/sudden Newegg $8 charge for HDD shipping?

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post #255 of 256 Old 12-14-2011, 05:18 AM
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Originally Posted by OtherSongs View Post

Interesting forecast.

Not holding my breath on that, but I hope you are right.

My forecast is that Newegg will quit charging $8/HDD for shipping, and go back to free shipping for most HDD.

I mean what's with the new/sudden Newegg $8 charge for HDD shipping?

Some have free shipping and most don't.

This changes also.

Look for "daily deals "as they usually have free shipping.

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post #256 of 256 Old 12-17-2011, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by dobyken View Post

I read somewhere that some of the factories also make parts for the desktop drives for export which could explain the shortage. Some of it is also like the "Peanut Butter" shortage. They say there's going to be a shortage so everyone buys twice as much as they need causing a shortage. I bought 8 big jars just to be safe.

good point

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