Survivor Season 27 CBS HD September 18th, 2013 - Page 16 - AVS Forum
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Old 12-05-2013, 10:08 AM
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A 33% chance to turn the game completely around starts to look pretty good if you consider your chance to get to the end at zero percent. I don't think that Katie or Ciera had much to lose at all by taking the gamble, even if the odds were against them. Tyson however took a HUGE gamble by going to the rocks. He is in a great position right now, and has EVERYTHING TO LOSE by a random drawing. Additionally, he has to get Monica out soon because she is so dominant at immunity challenges. I question if he made the right choice in that situation, he only had a 66% chance of it not being a total disaster for him. Next week Tyson could have used his idol, so he was guaranteed a final 4 spot and many more days to influence people to a new plan.
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Old 12-05-2013, 10:18 AM
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mgkdragn, I agree, this is one of the best seasons in a while. I think Tyson learned a lot from his time on Heroes vs Villans, and for that matter from Boston Rob. He still needs to sensor some of the thoughts in his head before he verbalizes it to people. I thought it was funny when he told Katie her "seat was over there", but I can see how Katie and the Jury would be pissed off by that statement.

I was pulling for Ciera until she decided to draw a line in the sand last night and draw for rocks. Now I hope she or Hayden will be the next to go.
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Old 12-05-2013, 10:36 AM - Thread Starter
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All I'm saying is Ciera had a solid Alliance .. she was a lock for the Final 4 .. Next Tribal, Monica will remember who turned on her

Caleb says "A man's word means something .. " .. yet he was in on the possible blindside of Tyson .. had the role been reversed, Caleb would have said "It's just a Game, man .. " ..

If Ciera wanted to flip, she should have done it last week when they had the numbers .. she shares the Idol clue with her Alliance this week .. then flips at the last minute .. her play is brainless ..

Outlast : if you have a lock for the Final 4, stay solid with your Alliance .. the idea is to advance ..

I'll give it to Hayden for throwing down .. he had nothing to lose ..

All that needs to happen is the Tyson, Gervase, Monica Alliance to stay solid .. and if Tyson so much as smells a blindside, he'll play the Idol and Ciera will go to Redemption ..

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Old 12-05-2013, 11:05 AM
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It seems to me that Ciera wants to prove to everyone (especially her Mom) that she is a good Survivor player and not just a tagalong. She is playing emotionally and not rationally and does not have a roadmap. Most successful players run the various scenarios over in their minds so when something happens (like last night), they've already figured out which option is best for them. Hayden forced the issue and she wanted to show everyone that she could make a BIG Move, but she did not run the odds and the repercussions ahead of time even though Hayden was in her ear before Tribal Council. You could see it in her face...the deer in the headlights expression: There's a big object hurtling towards me...what do I do?

It was definitely a fun tribal! I'd like either Tyson or Hayden to win.
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Old 12-05-2013, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooked01 View Post

It seems to me that Ciera wants to prove to everyone (especially her Mom) that she is a good Survivor player and not just a tagalong. She is playing emotionally and not rationally and does not have a roadmap. Most successful players run the various scenarios over in their minds so when something happens (like last night), they've already figured out which option is best for them. Hayden forced the issue and she wanted to show everyone that she could make a BIG Move, but she did not run the odds and the repercussions ahead of time even though Hayden was in her ear before Tribal Council. You could see it in her face...the deer in the headlights expression: There's a big object hurtling towards me...what do I do?

It was definitely a fun tribal! I'd like either Tyson or Hayden to win.

Exactly.

It was an impulsive move which seems to be her nature but there was some merit to it even though odds were still against it. Had she stayed in the Tyson alliance, it really was very unlikely she made the Final 3. If you were Tyson, Gervais, or Monica, would you allow Ciera to be in the Final 3? Not a bloody chance. Ciera would win in a landslide having locked up Laura M, Tina, Katie, etc votes.

Her only chance would have been to win immunity going into the last vote, not likely.

That said, I think her play was emotional and about making the big move and she showing the world/her mom that she can play, which is why Hayden's persuasion was very well done. He knew his audience and tailored his strategy accordingly.
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Old 12-05-2013, 11:27 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by djb5f View Post

Exactly.

It was an impulsive move which seems to be her nature but there was some merit to it even though odds were still against it. Had she stayed in the Tyson alliance, it really was very unlikely she made the Final 3. If you were Tyson, Gervais, or Monica, would you allow Ciera to be in the Final 3? Not a bloody chance. Ciera would win in a landslide having locked up Laura M, Tina, Katie, etc votes.

Her only chance would have been to win immunity going into the last vote, not likely.

That said, I think her play was emotional and about making the big move and she showing the world/her mom that she can play, which is why Hayden's persuasion was very well done. He knew his audience and tailored his strategy accordingly.

I agree to a point, but this late in the Game, even if you feel you're not in the final 3, if you have a solid Alliance, stick with it until at least the Final 4 .. see what happens with Mom at Redemption .. IOW, advance in the Game .. don't roll the dice over trying to make a point by flipping at the last instant ..

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Old 12-05-2013, 11:53 AM
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I am rooting for Laura M to win out all the way to the finals. She stepped aside to give her daughter a chance; now it's up to mom to show everyone how it's done.
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Old 12-05-2013, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mgkdragn View Post

I agree to a point, but this late in the Game, even if you feel you're not in the final 3, if you have a solid Alliance, stick with it until at least the Final 4 .. see what happens with Mom at Redemption .. IOW, advance in the Game .. don't roll the dice over trying to make a point by flipping at the last instant ..
Hard to say what was the best move for Ciera. She wasn't going to win against Caleb and Hayden if they dragged her to F3 so I kind of felt that she would be better at F4 with her mom probably coming back. Then there would be a pair against a pair with Monica as a swing vote although Monica seems pretty solid with Tyson and Gervase. It wasn't a bad move to draw rocks for Katie or Ciera because they both were going to be toast at some point. Tyson's play was a little dicier because he may have gone to RI and not come back . If he switched his vote and got Monica out the first F5 would be a real problem and he would have to use his idol then and be vulnerable at the 2nd F5. Actually I'm not sure if you have to use the idol at the first F5 or if you can keep it and use it when the returnee comes back. It is also hard to tell how much they debated the revote before they went to rocks so I might have to watch some secret scenes to gain more insight into Tysons choice. At any rate it was an interesting strategic move by all parties. Kudos for Hayden and his play on Ciera but his bad play with Caleb the week before might have cost him a chance at winning.
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Old 12-06-2013, 05:11 AM
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I made an idol and hid it in my back yard, and I swear to you, next morning it was gone and in its place there was a "thank you" note from Tyson! smile.gif
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Old 12-06-2013, 06:44 AM
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Is there no Android app this season? I couldn't find it anywhere.
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Old 12-06-2013, 06:56 AM
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I came across a parody video on YouTube of the Gotye "Used to know" song and guess who was playing Gotye Vader? Hint: it's our favorite wise-cracking Idol finder.
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Old 12-06-2013, 08:59 AM
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I came across a parody video on YouTube of the Gotye "Used to know" song and guess who was playing Gotye Vader? Hint: it's our favorite wise-cracking Idol finder.
Good catch. Here's the link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJlbPXZEpRE
Almost 14 million views. I guess we can't rout for him to win now since he must be wealthy from this?
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Old 12-06-2013, 09:19 AM
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Good catch. Here's the link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJlbPXZEpRE
Almost 14 million views. I guess we can't rout for him to win now since he must be wealthy from this?

Geez... what a waste of 5 minutes and 8 seconds . . .

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Old 12-06-2013, 09:49 AM
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Geez... what a waste of 5 minutes and 8 seconds . . .

Sorry, I guess I should have warned you that it went on a little too long and it's a Star Wars parody, so you have to be a fan to get all the references. If you watch for a minute, you get the gist of it. The lyrics were clever but grew repetitive.
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Old 12-06-2013, 03:14 PM
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Hooked, thanks for posting. I got a kick out of it, if for nothing else the oddity. Tyson is an eccentric dude but I generally agree too, the Star Wars prequels were underwhelming, not that Return of the Jedi was masterful either.
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Old 12-06-2013, 03:36 PM
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Anyone else notice they didn't do the text for a chance to win 10K this season?

RIP John, my best friend. Oct 17th 1966 - Nov 13th 2010

RIP Victor, my dad, June 26th 1927 - April 13th 2011
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Old 12-08-2013, 02:33 AM
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I suspect Tyson is actually Harry Potter!
I bet he magically changed the color of the rocks. And if you look closely, on the first vote, he is moving a magical wand behind his back and his lips say the spell "oblivion" making everybody forget all about Candice and subsequently vote her out because "they didn't know her"! biggrin.gif
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Old 12-08-2013, 08:02 AM
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He looks more like Malfoy.
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Old 12-09-2013, 01:16 PM
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Who is the real you? Your animal instincts, or the one that calmly decides after considering all aspects of a situation. Why the "real you" is the one under so much stress that doesn't have the ability to think?

Don't be so quick to judge people. Who is the real Misty? The stupid, useless hot girl of survivor Panama, or the actual rocket scientist she is in real life? Who is the real Cochran? The awkward, stupid, frightened boy of the first time, or the superman mastermind that won everything the second time?

We have so very little information. You don't know everything they do (you said it yourself, not enough air time), you don't know where they come from and you don't know what it is like in survivor for them (even people that have been in survivor don't know because it is different for everybody).

About "gathering clues": Jeff said it. What we have seen is that 5 other smart people had the same information, at the same time with Tyson and that the idol was super easy to find.

"That fact alone changes nothing."
Yes it does. Read the example, and think about it a little bit.

 

Just getting caught up.  I'll try again :).  It had nothing to do with judging anyone...  It was about contestants actively choosing to put up a false front and alter/cover their normal selves/behavior as part of their game play/strategy, in order to fit in and get the other players to like/trust them more.  That's a worthy strategy and I suspect the large majority of players do this at least to some extent (people do the same thing to varying degrees in everyday life as well, even on AVS ;)).  The point was just that maintaining that facade can be pretty hard for many players when under the stress and pressures of the game.

 

 

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Old 12-09-2013, 01:26 PM - Thread Starter
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He looks more like Malfoy.


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Old 12-12-2013, 08:35 AM
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I really wish Monica would of jumped last night.

RIP John, my best friend. Oct 17th 1966 - Nov 13th 2010

RIP Victor, my dad, June 26th 1927 - April 13th 2011
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Old 12-12-2013, 08:52 AM
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Monica's genuine (or at least pretended to be genuine) hearing out of Ciera and Hayden will help her in the Final vote. By far, her best gameplay of the season. Hayden will also talk to Laura M and Tina and curry favor for Monica.

Monica is shaping up to win comfortably if she can get to the finals with Tyson and Gervais, who are very unpopular amongst the jury. She was correct sticking with them even if her "feelings were hurt."

As a Survivor fan, I too wanted her to switch but generally I like it when the minority is able to flip the script on the majority, makes it more interesting.
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Old 12-12-2013, 10:00 AM
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Monica did not flip for one of two reasons, or both:
1) She knows if she sticks to her alliance she is in the top three and she thinks she has a good chance to win at final tribal.
2) If she switches, and either Laura or Tina return from RI, she is #4.
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Old 12-12-2013, 10:11 AM
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I have become a real fan of Monica and Laura the past few weeks. I normally root for the guys, but not this year.
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Old 12-12-2013, 10:18 AM
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I have become a real fan of Monica and Laura the past few weeks. I normally root for the guys, but not this year.

I like Hayden, but puzzle solving is not his forte, so we'll see one of the women back.
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Old 12-12-2013, 10:21 AM
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Is Ciera that stupid? She was all excited that it looks like her mother was coming back and she kept saying how that will make two of them they have to deal with, blah blah blah. So what? It is still three against 2 you still are going home, having your mother there does nothing for you. She was all giddy with excitement and beaming from ear to ear like she just pulled off the biggest thing ever that was a game changer.

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Old 12-12-2013, 10:37 AM
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^^^
Give the girl a break! She had just won a come-from-waaaaay-behind immunity challenge, and there was still hope that Hayden could survive... she was simply excited about her FIRST personal victory. She deserved to be happy for a few fleeting moments . . . smile.gif

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Old 12-12-2013, 10:58 AM
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^^^
Give the girl a break! She had just won a come-from-waaaaay-behind immunity challenge, and there was still hope that Hayden could survive... she was simply excited about her FIRST personal victory. She deserved to be happy for a few fleeting moments . . . smile.gif
This! I'm rooting for her and Laura, but they have a steep hill to climb to keep Monica from taking it all and judging from past juries, Tyson & Gervase won't win ...
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Old 12-12-2013, 11:12 AM
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Monica is the favorite at this time but probably the one I want to win the least (outside of Tina who is a longshot to get back in the game).

Unlike most seasons, I'd be perfectly happy if any number of people won (Laura M, Hayden, Gervais, Tyson, Ciera). I enjoyed their games. What I hold against Monica is tthat she is an annoyance between the paranoia, blabbing, and ready to flip and change votes rocking the boat when she didn't have too when they split the votes. That said, I think she did well last night building a relationship with others outside the alliance.


Pretty easy IMO:
It all boils down if Monica can keep the Final 3 with Tyson and Gervais (she wins) or if someone else gets in (she loses).
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Old 12-12-2013, 11:34 AM
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I have not been keeping up as much as usual this season but I just noticed last night before watching the show this very sad news about Tina's son/Katie's brother dying in a car wreck last week :(

 

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2013/dec/03/passenger-dies-injuries-car-crash-germantown-road/#share

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2522095/Survivor-winner-Tina-Wessons-heartbreak-son-killed-car-accident.html

 

 

 

 

 

I thought I might see a short notice about it before or after the episode last night but didn't see anything.  Wonder if they will still be attending the Finale?

 

 

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