Of course it is all speculation at this point. Media players are very low sellers except for ATV, Roku and WD. Even the Boxee Box did not sell that well. The 250k figure mentioned would be a dream come true for most media player companies.
I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of the general media player. Online streaming, DRM, premium channels, Smart TV's, game consoles, portability requirements and copyright laws are taking a toll. Relative sales of physical disks are dropping and outlets for purchasing them are in trouble (for example, Best Buy). Backing up disks to disk images or equivalent will become harder to do and then playback will be hindered by copy protection. It's happening now. HDMI is just the tip of the iceberg.
The driving force in all of this is that content producers and providers want a sustainable industry. You can't really blame them They are not the most likable folks around but they also aren't the demons that many make them out to be. What is coming will make Apple's walled garden seem open source.