U.S. Flat Panel Market Shrinking... then Flat - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 
Thread Tools
post #1 of 11 Old 03-28-2012, 12:46 PM - Thread Starter
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,088
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 62 Post(s)
Liked: 439
How bad is the flat-panel TV business in the U.S.?

Well, you've seen the reports about Sony, Panasonic, Sharp losing money and part of the reason why: The growth phase is over and the next phase -- at least in the U.S. is actually down, according to iSuppli.

After 1% growth in 2011, the slowest ever in the flat-panel era, shipments are expected to fall this year from 39 million to 37 million, a drop of about 5%. They are expected to fall again in 2013 and wind up around 34 million in 2014 and 2015.

These are still big numbers but they point out a few macro trends:

1) Our economic recovery, while real, is slow. Job growth is slow, real income gains are pretty much non-existent, the housing-debt overhang is far from gone, etc. etc. Leaving the politics of this aside, there is some extraordinary data on how recessions are taking longer to recover from generally, how things like financial panics generally take years to fix, etc. etc. We're dealing with reality and it sucks.

2) People are, in fact, keeping TVs longer, not shorter. There is some mythology that TVs are getting replaced faster. That's largely based on the once-in-a-generation cycle of replacing all the CRTs and non-digital TVs and averaging in all that data to mis-conclude that TV buying cycles were shortening. Now that everyone who wants a digital TV has one, most replacement is done by need, change of address, etc. Ironically, this favors...

3) ... the shift toward larger sizes will continue. Since people aren't buying TVs "just 'cause" they are pretty much buying them when they really want them. One really big want is to go bigger. Tracking how the size shifts go in a flat market over the next few years will be interesting. How fast and how big will tell us a lot because the U.S. HDTV market is mature at this point.

4) Apple is going to face challenges no matter what if they price any hypothetical TV too high up the food chain. Part of the reason the iPad is so successful is that it isn't expensive vs. other 10" tablets. (Please, don't start on 7" tablets, I'm well aware they are cheaper. To date, no first-tier manufacturer has been able to undercut iPad by any meaningful number of dollars and sometimes smaller tablets like Galaxy Tab 7.7 cost as much as 10" iPads.) If an Apple TV is really pricey, they aren't selling many. Worth tracking. Also worth wondering, even 20% of the TV market in the U.S. doesn't sounds exceptionally interesting unless they are selling a lot of associated content given Apple's size.

Oh, more here from iSuppli: http://www.isuppli.com/Display-Mater...This-Year.aspx

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 11 Old 03-28-2012, 05:07 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
walford's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 16,789
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
Excellent comments to a very good press release by Isupply.
I have one 1080p 55" flat panel and 3 CRT TVs that are between 20 and 30 years old. I plan no replacements until a standard set of the recent newfeatures becomes common among different manufacturers.
walford is offline  
post #3 of 11 Old 03-28-2012, 07:49 PM
Senior Member
 
DaveC19's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 413
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

To date, no first-tier manufacturer has been able to undercut iPad by any meaningful number of dollars and sometimes smaller tablets like Galaxy Tab 7.7 cost as much as 10" iPads.) If an Apple TV is really pricey, they aren't selling many. Worth tracking. Also worth wondering, even 20% of the TV market in the U.S. doesn't sounds exceptionally interesting unless they are selling a lot of associated content given Apple's size.

Well it is kind of unfair to compare the Galaxy Tab 7.7 to ipad in price. The 7.7 uses an OLED panel and those are very expensive still.

As far as Apple TV, Apple wants to take over the living room. Many have tried but since they built up allot of content they think they have a shot.. They can sell games, music, movies, and apps all through the TV. They may have a shot at 20% now but if they get a foothold they will own the future. Must be a long term thing.
DaveC19 is offline  
post #4 of 11 Old 03-28-2012, 09:32 PM
AVS Special Member
 
specuvestor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,399
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
1) Flat panel TV growth phase will not be in developed markets which are primarily replacement markets. It will be in developing markets. If we look at the big macro trends we see >1/2 of the world's population ie BRIC plus Indonesia and Mexico still has potential. But the middle class there is not going to emerge overnight. Certainly US will slow down as replacement rate still hovers around 8-10 years, unlike handsets which is about 24 months. In any case US TV are so ridiculously cheap vs rest of the world that it is not a sustainable model. Something got to give (and CC gave up its ghost) and that's why UPP (detailed discussion in another thread).

2) iPad is successful not because it is cheap (or rather reasonably priced... I hardly use the word "cheap" for Apple products past 25 years) though it helps. Neither was the original iPhone "cheap". They all succeeded because the eco system was built up and user experience was optimal. Without App store or iTune, Apple would have been another could-have-been, just as it was 2 decades ago until Job's ouster.

The caveat is of course Apple failed building the closed ecosystem during the PC war. So it is all about execution of the SAME vision. And Jobs did it much better because he learnt. He's battle hardened. I'm not so sure of Tim Cook. For those die hard capitalist and open source/ anti-paternalistic advocates, something to chew on

3) The strategy of taking over the living room is long drawn one with no winners. Again it is the right strategy but bad execution, especially Sony. But this time round it is much more dynamic because people actually spend more time with computing device than TV vs a decade ago. The challenge would be how to migrate the internet experience (content) to the TV. That's what Apple is looking to do. I have said this many times: Apple is a SOFTWARE company (And yes Jobs said so as well), hardware is a peripheral to their core business. They are not interested in selling the TV hardware, or iPad or iPhone. They are interested in the hardware just as much to make sure their software runs seamlessly. That's their core hardware R&D ie how to optimise the hardware and design, but they don't make anything.
specuvestor is offline  
post #5 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 02:57 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,088
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 62 Post(s)
Liked: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC19 View Post

Well it is kind of unfair to compare the Galaxy Tab 7.7 to ipad in price. The 7.7 uses an OLED panel and those are very expensive still.

Yes, fair point. No one is successfully undercutting Apple at 10 inches either way -- at least not top-tier mfrs.
Quote:
As far as Apple TV, Apple wants to take over the living room. Many have tried but since they built up allot of content they think they have a shot.. They can sell games, music, movies, and apps all through the TV. They may have a shot at 20% now but if they get a foothold they will own the future. Must be a long term thing.

I think it's a long-term bet on a $100 billion business. I just think it's a very long-term bet and their slow moves mean they are going to face Google, Microsoft, the world's cable companies, etc. and while I never bet against them, it's going to be tough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

1) Flat panel TV growth phase will not be in developed markets which are primarily replacement markets. It will be in developing markets. If we look at the big macro trends we see >1/2 of the world's population ie BRIC plus Indonesia and Mexico still has potential. But the middle class there is not going to emerge overnight. Certainly US will slow down as replacement rate still hovers around 8-10 years, unlike handsets which is about 24 months. In any case US TV are so ridiculously cheap vs rest of the world that it is not a sustainable model. Something got to give (and CC gave up its ghost) and that's why UPP (detailed discussion in another thread).

In the BRIC countries, the fastest growing products are direct-LED sets that are much smaller, much cheaper and far from high end. I point this out because it's not going to advance the industry, not likely to be supplied from today's tier-one manufacturers, etc. Let's pretend unit shipments will grow there over the next 5 years (and I suspect they will so don't misinterpret pretend there as a negative word), it's going to be mostly commodity sets that wouldn't be given away in the U.S. for $400.
[quote]
2) iPad is successful not because it is cheap (or rather reasonably priced... I hardly use the word "cheap" for Apple products past 25 years) though it helps. Neither was the original iPhone "cheap". They all succeeded because the eco system was built up and user experience was optimal. Without App store or iTune, Apple would have been another could-have-been, just as it was 2 decades ago until Job's ouster.
[quote]
Right, but iPad is also cheap, price-wise. What a miracle.
Quote:
The caveat is of course Apple failed building the closed ecosystem during the PC war. So it is all about execution of the SAME vision. And Jobs did it much better because he learnt. He's battle hardened. I'm not so sure of Tim Cook. For those die hard capitalist and open source/ anti-paternalistic advocates, something to chew on

I'm sold on Tim Cook and the Apple ecosystem approach being a winner. I'm not certain they won't stumble, but I'm certain everyone is trying to replicate their approach; no one is doing anything meaningfully different. Even Android is consolidating around fewer important device OEMs and Microsoft will be basically banking on one OEM.
Quote:
3) The strategy of taking over the living room is long drawn one with no winners. Again it is the right strategy but bad execution, especially Sony. But this time round it is much more dynamic because people actually spend more time with computing device than TV vs a decade ago. The challenge would be how to migrate the internet experience (content) to the TV. That's what Apple is looking to do. I have said this many times: Apple is a SOFTWARE company (And yes Jobs said so as well), hardware is a peripheral to their core business. They are not interested in selling the TV hardware, or iPad or iPhone. They are interested in the hardware just as much to make sure their software runs seamlessly. That's their core hardware R&D ie how to optimise the hardware and design, but they don't make anything.

All a good analysis. As I said above, I'm not sure they have the secret sauce to win this one.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
post #6 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 02:44 PM
AVS Special Member
 
mr. wally's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: land of the pumas
Posts: 3,806
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5 Post(s)
Liked: 47
i think you both are right in your analysis as to the u.s. market.

first, as stated, once you had tens of millions of u.s. households buying hdtvs to replace their crts over a very short time span (5 years?), bean counters and manufacturers presumed the turnover cycle would remain consistent with what occurred during the digital transformation of broadcast signals.

well that's not going to happen for a couple of reasons. most people are just fine with whatever hdtv they bought and only dummies like us will go out and replace perfectly functioning lcds or plasmas to get an incrementally better display. j6p who bought his lcd 4-5 yrs ago, is not going to upgrade in this economy. most of these 1st gen hdtv owners will keep their sets at least as long as they will keep their cars.

and since both of you are quite knowledgble about marketing, you are probably aware that most households are replacing their vehicles now on a 10 year cycle instead of what used to be a 7 year cycle.

the u.s economy is recovering way to slowly and is hampered in its attempts to get back on track by the dysfunctionality in congress.

first time in my life i've seen politicians put party before country in a time of national crisis.

so yeah, i'd like to replace my edge lit lcd for a pro elite, but no way i can justify that expense when i'm barely covering my bills and soon will have a second kid in college.

hdtv display sales growth has leveled out and will probably drop, and i don't see that changing until the u.s. has annual gdp growth over 3% for a year or two and unemployment falls to around 6%. right now the way things look, that may take a decade to accomplish and we may never see an american economy at those levels ever again.

neflixis our nemesis
mr. wally is offline  
post #7 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 03:05 PM
AVS Special Member
 
mailiang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Springsteen Country
Posts: 6,630
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 115 Post(s)
Liked: 311
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

i think you both are right in your analysis as to the u.s. market.

first, as stated, once you had tens of millions of u.s. households buying hdtvs to replace their crts over a very short time span (5 years?), bean counters and manufacturers presumed the turnover cycle would remain consistent with what occurred during the digital transformation of broadcast signals.

well that's not going to happen for a couple of reasons. most people are just fine with whatever hdtv they bought and only dummies like us will go out and replace perfectly functioning lcds or plasmas to get an incrementally better display. j6p who bought his lcd 4-5 yrs ago, is not going to upgrade in this economy. most of these 1st gen hdtv owners will keep their sets at least as long as they will keep their cars.

and since both of you are quite knowledgble about marketing, you are probably aware that most households are replacing their vehicles now on a 10 year cycle instead of what used to be a 7 year cycle.

the u.s economy is recovering way to slowly and is hampered in its attempts to get back on track by the dysfunctionality in congress.

first time in my life i've seen politicians put party before country in a time of national crisis.

so yeah, i'd like to replace my edge lit lcd for a pro elite, but no way i can justify that expense when i'm barely covering my bills and soon will have a second kid in college.

hdtv display sales growth has leveled out and will probably drop, and i don't see that changing until the u.s. has annual gdp growth over 3% for a year or two and unemployment falls to around 6%. right now the way things look, that may take a decade to accomplish and we may never see an american economy at those levels ever again.


+ 1


Ian

The best way to succeed in life is to act on the advice you give to others

mailiang is offline  
post #8 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 04:32 PM
AVS Special Member
 
greenland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,101
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
Liked: 117
The sales figures and projections for the American market would appear to indicate that the big push to get people to purchase displays for their 3D viewing capability, did not really make much of a difference in over all sales numbers?
greenland is offline  
post #9 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 11:09 PM - Thread Starter
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,088
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 62 Post(s)
Liked: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

The sales figures and projections for the American market would appear to indicate that the big push to get people to purchase displays for their 3D viewing capability, did not really make much of a difference in over all sales numbers?

It made no difference at all, actually. The existing cycle was unchanged by the availability of 3-D. I guess we could say without 3-D sales might have been worse, though there is minimal evidence that many consumers are actually buying for 3-D.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

i think you both are right in your analysis as to the u.s. market.

first, as stated, once you had tens of millions of u.s. households buying hdtvs to replace their crts over a very short time span (5 years?), bean counters and manufacturers presumed the turnover cycle would remain consistent with what occurred during the digital transformation of broadcast signals.

well that's not going to happen for a couple of reasons. most people are just fine with whatever hdtv they bought and only dummies like us will go out and replace perfectly functioning lcds or plasmas to get an incrementally better display. j6p who bought his lcd 4-5 yrs ago, is not going to upgrade in this economy. most of these 1st gen hdtv owners will keep their sets at least as long as they will keep their cars.

and since both of you are quite knowledgble about marketing, you are probably aware that most households are replacing their vehicles now on a 10 year cycle instead of what used to be a 7 year cycle.

the u.s economy is recovering way to slowly and is hampered in its attempts to get back on track by the dysfunctionality in congress.

first time in my life i've seen politicians put party before country in a time of national crisis.

The last sentence in the part I quoted is one of the single most profound things I have ever read at AVS. I blame them both.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
post #10 of 11 Old 03-29-2012, 11:56 PM
AVS Special Member
 
specuvestor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,399
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
^^ Means u buy 1 every 10 years... what we said... choosing not to dispose doesn't count I used to have a 20 year old 8086 AT computer as well but doesn't mean I stopped buying PC.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

The sales figures and projections for the American market would appear to indicate that the big push to get people to purchase displays for their 3D viewing capability, did not really make much of a difference in over all sales numbers?

I view 3D as a feature, not an improvement that drives sales. People don't buy TV because there is Smart TV feature as well.
specuvestor is offline  
post #11 of 11 Old 03-30-2012, 05:56 PM
Member
 
77Pat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 88
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
I agree with the analysis above. I also believe other consumers do not care. Look at Targets ad for next week, they have all dvd's with blu-rays only as text.
77Pat is offline  
Reply Flat Panels General and OLED Technology

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off